Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone 200116 : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2000-2001 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone 200116 Track Map and Data |
WTXS31 PGTW 20010402 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z1 --- NEAR 13.3S7 86.6E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S7 86.6E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 14.0S5 84.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 14.6S1 82.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 15.3S9 80.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 16.4S1 79.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 13.5S9 86.1E5.
THE FAIR SUSPECT AREA PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2S6 86.4E8
HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S ABOUT 900 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA ISLAND. THIS IS A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM AND
DVORAK INTENSITY CLASSIFICATIONS MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
ACTUAL STRENGTH. HOWEVER, A MICROWAVE IMAGE SUGGESTS THAT A BANDING
EYE FEATURE MAY BE DEVELOPING. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK IN A
GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS FORECAST SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
BETA ADVECTION MODELS, CLIPER AND HPAC. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z2 AND
032100Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010403 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z9 --- NEAR 13.7S1 84.2E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S1 84.2E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 14.0S5 82.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 14.2S7 81.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 14.7S2 79.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 15.0S6 76.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 15.1S7 73.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
030900Z2 POSITION NEAR 13.8S2 83.8E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 11 KTS IN
THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS CURRENTLY APPROXIMATELY 800 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA ISLAND. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC DATA. A
RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS REVEALED A
COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND DEEP CONVECTION
OVERHEAD. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 16S IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z9 IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 032100Z6 AND 040900Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S
(WALTER) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010403 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z2 --- NEAR 15.3S9 81.9E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 81.9E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 15.8S4 80.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 16.3S0 78.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 16.7S4 77.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 17.1S9 76.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 17.4S2 73.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 15.4S0 81.5E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 10 KTS IN
THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS APPROXIMATELY 730 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA ISLAND. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC DATA. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AND DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK IN
A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THE FIRST 48
HOUR PERIOD THEN MAINTAIN INTENSITY THEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES A HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT TOWARD THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z2
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z3 AND 042100Z7. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010404 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z0 --- NEAR 15.5S1 80.0E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 80.0E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 15.7S3 78.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 16.1S8 76.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 16.4S1 75.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 16.6S3 73.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 16.9S6 71.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 15.5S1 79.6E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S HAS TRACKED WEST AT 11 KTS IN THE PAST 6
HOURS AND IS CURRENTLY APPROXIMATELY 700 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA ISLAND. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 040530Z2 VISIBLE
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 032037Z5 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION PASS
REVEALED A CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF
THE LLCC. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC
16S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z0 IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 042100Z7 AND 050900Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S
(WALTER) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010404 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 005
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z3 --- NEAR 14.9S4 77.5E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 77.5E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 14.6S1 76.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 14.3S8 75.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 14.2S7 74.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 14.0S5 73.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 14.2S7 70.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 14.8S3 77.2E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARICA, HAS TRACKED WEST AT 11 KTS IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 041730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED ANIMATION
DEPICT A SUDDEN BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATION ALSO REVEALS DIRECT INTERACTION
(FUJIWHARA) WITH THE FAIR SUSPECT AREA TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS HAS
CAUSED A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS.
WATER VAPOR AND 200 MB ANAL INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS BENEATH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. TC 16S SHOULD CONTINUE ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS BENEATH THE
RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z3 IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z4 AND 052100Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S
(WALTER) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010405 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 006 RELOCATED
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z1 --- NEAR 13.0S4 77.0E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S4 77.0E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 12.3S6 76.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 12.0S3 75.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 11.8S0 74.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 11.6S8 73.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 11.4S6 72.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 12.8S1 76.8E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM SOUTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA, WAS RELOCATED 120 NM TO THE NORTHWEST BASED ON
VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALING AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 050530Z3 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. VISIBLE AND
ENHANCED INFRARED ANIMATION INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS DIRECTLY
INTERACTING WITH A WEAK CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHEAST IN A POSSIBLE
FUJIWHARA CIRCULATION. THIS HAS CAUSED A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE GENERAL CIRCULATION INHIBITING
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM
IS BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. TC 16S SHOULD CONTINUE ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN MORE WESTWARD AS IT BREAKS FROM THE
DIRECT INTERACTION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS BENEATH THE RIDGE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1 IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052100Z8 AND 060900Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S
(WALTER) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EVARISTE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010405 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z4 --- NEAR 11.3S5 77.9E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S5 77.9E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 9.3S2 79.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 10.8S9 78.4E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM SOUTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA, WAS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
LAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 051730Z6 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DISSAPATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE
REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A WEAK CIRCULATION
TO THE EAST IN A FUJIWHARA CIRCULATION. THE REMNANTS ARE FORECAST TO
TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND MERGE WITH THE
SYSTEM TO THE EAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z4 IS
10 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S
(EVARISTE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_200116_jtwc_advisories.htm
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