Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone PAULA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2000-2001 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone PAULA Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PGTW 20010226 02:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 260151Z FEB 01//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.1S2 163.9E9 TO 14.5S0 165.8E0
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
252330Z5 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.4S6
163.8E8. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.8S9 163.1E1 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 11.8S0 163.8E8, SOUTHEAST OF THE SOLOMON ISLANDS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE DISTURBANCE IS IN A REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS
DEVELOPING GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
270200Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20010226 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z1 --- NEAR 12.6S9 164.8E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S9 164.8E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 13.4S8 165.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 14.4S9 166.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
065 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 15.5S1 166.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 16.7S4 166.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
085 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
261500Z4 POSITION NEAR 12.8S1 165.0E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170NM NORTHWEST
OF ESPIRITU SANTO ISLAND IN THE CORAL SEA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 261130Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 13P HAS PERSISTENT AND DEEP
CONVECTION FORMING IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS. UW-
CIMSS ANALYSIS PRODUCTS INDICATE THE REGION IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC
13P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z1 IS 12 FE
ET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z2 AND 271500Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
12P (ABIGAIL) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20010227 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (PAULA) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z9 --- NEAR 13.6S0 164.3E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S0 164.3E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 15.4S0 164.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 16.3S0 165.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 17.5S3 165.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 18.9S8 167.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
270300Z2 POSITION NEAR 14.0S5 164.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (PAULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
NORTH OF NEW CALEDONIA IN THE CORAL SEA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 262330Z6 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. A 262211Z4 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE
IMAGER (SSM/I 85 GHZ) PASS DEPICTED A WELL DEFINED PRIMARY BANDING
FEATURE WRAPPING IN TOWARD THE CENTER FROM THE EAST QUADRANT. 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 13P HAS DEVELOPED AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE VORTEX. OUTFLOW ALOFT HAS IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. DISTINCT OUTFLOW CHANNELS ARE ALSO VISIBLE ON
THE MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. POLEWARD
ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF AUSTRALIA CAUSING THE
RIDGE TO WEAKEN. THEREFORE, TC 13P IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z9 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
271500Z5 AND 280300Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (ABIGAIL)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20010227 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (PAULA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z2 --- NEAR 14.3S8 165.5E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 165.5E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 15.5S1 165.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 16.7S4 166.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 17.9S7 167.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 19.1S1 169.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
125 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
271500Z5 POSITION NEAR 14.6S1 165.6E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (PAULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF HOG HARBOR, ESPIRITU SANTO ISLAND, VANUATU IN THE
CORAL SEA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 271130Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 271031Z4
SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTED A DEVELOPING EYE WITH
A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED PRIMARY BAND. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM WITH DISTINCT OUTFLOW CHANNELS
EVIDENT WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC
13P HAS DEVELOPED AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE VORTEX.
POLEWARD ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD, A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF AUSTRALIA
CAUSING THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN. THEREFORE, TC 13P IS FORECAST TO TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE TURNING
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z2 IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 280300Z3 (DTG 280152Z8) AND 281500Z6 (DTG 281352Z1).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (ABIGAIL) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR
FINAL WARNING.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20010228 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (PAULA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z0 --- NEAR 16.1S8 166.5E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S8 166.5E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 17.4S2 167.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 18.4S3 169.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 19.6S6 171.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 20.7S9 173.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
280300Z3 POSITION NEAR 16.4S1 166.8E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (PAULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HOG HARBOR, ESPIRITU SANTO ISLAND, VANUATU IN THE
CORAL SEA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 272330Z7 VISIBLE AND
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 TO 90 KNOTS. MULTI-SPECTRAL
IMAGERY DEPICTS A 16 NM IRREGULAR EYE WITH AN ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT
BANDING FEATURE EXTENDING OVER THE EAST SEMI-CIRCLE. ALTHOUGH
OUTFLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO IMPROVE OVER THE EAST SEMI-CIRCLE, THE
WESTERN HALF APPEARS TO BE HAMPERED BY THE UPPER NORTHWESTERLIES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH SITUATED BETWEEN THE
EAST COAST OF AUSTRALIA AND NEW CALEDONIA. INTERACTION BETWEEN A
QUASI-STATIONARY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A BAROCLINIC LOW
NORTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND AND A POLEWARD ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD INFLUENCE THE TRACK THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THEREFORE, TC 13P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z0 IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z6 AND 010300Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20010228 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (PAULA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z3 --- NEAR 17.4S2 168.8E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S2 168.8E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 18.8S7 171.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 20.3S5 173.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 21.6S9 176.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 23.1S6 180.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
281500Z6 POSITION NEAR 17.7S5 169.4E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (PAULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 35 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
281130Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 TO 90 KNOTS. A
281032Z6 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS DEPICTS SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF EYEWALL CONVECTION AS COMPARED TO A 280842Z4 TROPICAL
RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION PASS. HOWEVER, THE SSM/I PASS STILL
DEPICTS A SMALL RAGGED EYE WITH A PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND WEST OF
THE SYSTEM CENTER. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT OVERALL SYSTEM ORGANIZATION HAS MAINTAINED OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH OF VANUATU WITH A WARM SPOT CLEARLY
EVIDENT. A 280900Z9 SYNOPTIC REPORT FROM PORT VILA SHOWED EASTERLY
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AT 29 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED AND IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS.
INTERACTION BETWEEN A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM A BAROCLINIC LOW NORTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND AND A POLEWARD
ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD
INFLUENCE THE TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE, TC 13P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z3 IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010300Z4 AND 011500Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20010301 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (PAULA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z1 --- NEAR 18.6S5 171.5E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S5 171.5E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 19.7S7 174.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 20.8S0 177.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 22.1S5 180.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 23.7S2 177.3W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
010300Z4 POSITION NEAR 18.9S8 172.3E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (PAULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
WEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 282330Z8
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. A 281648Z9
TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION PASS DEPICTED DEEP CONVECTION
SURROUNDING THE EYE AND A PRIMARY BAND FEATURE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORTEX HAS ABATED IN THE PAST 6
HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT OUTFLOW IS GOOD, BUT
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT. A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH NORTHEAST OF NEW
ZEALAND AND A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST TILTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM SHOULD INFLUENCE THE TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE, TC
13P IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES IMPEDE THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 010000Z1 IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z7 AND
020300Z5. //
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20010301 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (PAULA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z4 --- NEAR 19.8S8 175.2E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S8 175.2E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 20.8S0 178.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 22.3S7 179.2W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 23.9S4 176.9W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 25.7S4 174.7W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
011500Z7 POSITION NEAR 20.1S3 175.9E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (PAULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
011130Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CENTERED ABOUT
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF CIRRUS
CLOUDS STREAMING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A STRONG BANDING EYE, WITH THE
PRIMARY BAND FEATURE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UW-CIMSS SATELLITE
DERIVED WIND PRODUCTS INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, INCREASING TO THE SOUTH, WITH STRONG OUTFLOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC 13P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INCREASINGLY POLEWARD AND BEGINS UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 011200Z4 IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z5 (DTG 020152Z0) AND
021500Z8 (DTG 021352Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20010302 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (PAULA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z2 --- NEAR 21.3S6 179.2E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S6 179.2E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 23.0S5 177.9W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 24.8S4 175.9W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 26.2S0 174.8W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 27.6S5 173.6W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
020300Z5 POSITION NEAR 21.7S0 179.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (PAULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
SOUTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
012330Z9 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS
SUSTAINED INTENSITY IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 012130Z7 SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS REVEALED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE AND PRIMARY BAND WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 13P HAS MAINTAINED AN
ANTICYCLONE ALOFT AND HAS GOOD OUTFLOW. SATELLITE DERIVED WIND
PRODUCTS INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, INCREASING TO THE SOUTH, WITH STRONG OUTFLOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC 13P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 020000Z2 IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z8 AND 030300Z6.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (RITA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ISSUED BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY
NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI (WTPS32 PHNC).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PHNC 20010302 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (PAULA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z5 --- NEAR 22.9S3 177.7W2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S3 177.7W2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 24.7S3 175.8W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 26.4S2 173.9W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 27.9S8 172.7W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 29.4S5 171.4W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (PAULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021130Z7
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS AND RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY INDICATING EROSION OF THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE EYE-WALL.
THIS EROSION, AS WELL AS THE GENERAL SHAPE OF THE SYSTEM IN THE
INFRARED IMAGERY, ARE CONSISTENT WITH A SYSTEM UNDERGOING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED TO
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 13P
IS MAINTAINING STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 13P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM WILL
ALSO CONTINUE UNDERGOING A SLOW EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, AS THE
MODELS DO NOT INDICATE STRONG JET SUPPORT FOR THE SYSTEM, AND IT MAY
DEVELOP INTO A BAROCLINIC, WARM CORE HYBRID SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z5 IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030300Z6 AND 031500Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (RITA)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PHNC 20010303 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (PAULA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z3 --- NEAR 24.3S9 175.7W0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 24.3S9 175.7W0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 26.2S0 174.7W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 28.0S0 173.6W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 29.3S4 172.0W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 30.5S8 170.4W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
030300Z6 POSITION NEAR 24.8S4 175.4W7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (PAULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 022330Z0
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. A 022115Z1 SPECIAL
SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I 85GHZ) DEPICTED A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A BANDING FEATURE STILL EVIDENT
OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
VISIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. TC 13P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED OVER FRENCH POLYNESIA. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS MODERATE UPPER NORTHWESTERLIES
ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG WAVE SITUATED WEST OF TC 13P CONTINUE TO
HAMPER OUTFLOW OVER THE VORTEX. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
030000Z3 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z9 AND 040300Z7. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (RITA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PHNC 20010303 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (PAULA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z6 --- NEAR 26.2S0 174.2W4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.2S0 174.2W4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 28.2S2 172.7W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 30.2S5 171.2W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 31.2S6 169.3W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 32.2S7 167.3W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (PAULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 031130Z8
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED
RAPIDLY, AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTED A
FULLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH MODERATE CONVECTION SHEARED WELL TO THE
SOUTH. TC 13P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER
COOLER WATERS AND UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION REMAINS POSSIBLE NEAR THE 36 HOUR TIME FRAME,
AND THE SYSTEM TAKES ON WEAK BAROCLINIC PROPERTIES AND GAINS WEAK
JET SUPPORT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z7 AND 041500Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
14P (RITA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PHNC 20010304 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (PAULA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z4 --- NEAR 27.8S7 172.3W3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
REPEAT POSIT: 27.8S7 172.3W3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 30.4S7 170.4W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 32.4S9 168.4W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 33.6S2 165.9W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (PAULA), LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 032330Z1 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 65 KNOTS. MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
ASYMMETRIC APPEARANCE WITH A VIRTUALLY CONVECTION FREE, EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH SITUATED JUST EAST
OF NEW ZEALAND, HAS BEGUN TO INFLUENCE THE STEERING FLOW OF TC 13P.
THEREFORE, TC 13P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED BENEATH THE POLAR FRONT JET AND HAS
BEGUN EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION. TC 13P SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND COMPLETE EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z4 IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z0 AND 050300Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
14P (RITA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PHNC 20010304 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (PAULA) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z7 --- NEAR 30.1S4 170.6W4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 30.1S4 170.6W4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 31.4S8 169.1W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 32.1S6 167.1W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 32.3S8 165.0W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (PAULA), LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 041130Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 45 KNOTS. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 250
MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS UNDER A FINGER OF THE
POLAR JET WITH 40-50 KNOT NORTHWESTERLIES. A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW ZEALAND, HAS BEGUN TO INFLUENCE THE
STEERING FLOW OF TC 13P. THEREFORE, TC 13P IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SYSTEM
HAS MOVED BENEATH THE POLAR FRONT JET AND HAS BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z7 IS 18 FEET. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL PACIFIC METEOROLOGY AND
OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P
(RITA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_paula_jtwc_advisories.htm
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