WTXS21 PGTW 050730
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/050721ZNOV2005//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.1S 97.4E TO 10.5S 93.0E WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUM-
BERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 050530Z INDICATES
THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.4S 97.2E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4S 98.4E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4S 97.2E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM NORTH OF THE
COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CON-
VECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE. A 042342Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES A WELL
DEFINED LLCC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE WESTERN HALF. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUT-
FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTEN-
TIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
060730Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20051105 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050721Z NOV 05//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051800Z --- NEAR 10.0S 96.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S 96.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 11.3S 94.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 12.6S 92.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 13.6S 90.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 14.5S 87.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 95.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER, TC 02S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARD A LOWER-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND REMAINS OVER FAVORABLE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 050721Z NOV 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21
PGTW 050730). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z AND 062100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20051106 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060600Z --- NEAR 10.9S 93.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 93.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 11.7S 91.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 12.5S 89.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 13.1S 86.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 13.8S 84.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 93.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RECENT MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 060600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z AND 070900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20051106 21:00z 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/   
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 003    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061800Z --- NEAR 11.7S 91.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 91.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 12.4S 89.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 13.4S 87.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 14.5S 85.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 16.0S 83.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 91.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 061800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z AND 072100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20051107 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/   
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 004    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070600Z --- NEAR 13.2S 89.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 89.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 14.4S 87.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 15.6S 85.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 16.9S 82.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 18.4S 80.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 88.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
450 NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z
AND 080900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20051107 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071800Z --- NEAR 14.9S 86.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 86.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 15.9S 84.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 17.2S 82.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 18.7S 80.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 20.4S 78.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 86.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080900Z AND 082100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20051108 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 83.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 83.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 17.8S 81.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 19.2S 78.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 20.5S 77.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 83.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 810 NM WEST OF
THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 10 FEET.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

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