WTXS31 PGTW 20051224 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240600Z --- NEAR 12.1S 85.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 85.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 12.7S 82.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 13.1S 80.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 13.6S 78.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 14.5S 75.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 84.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 790 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. WHILE TC 04S IS IN AN EN-
VIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HAS DECENT UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE SYSTEM WILL BE INHIBITED FROM SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO ITS HIGH SPEED OF MOVEMENT. A SOUTHWESTERLY
TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
SYSTEM IS STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 242100Z AND 250900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20051224 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241800Z --- NEAR 12.7S 82.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 82.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 13.3S 79.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 13.9S 76.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 14.7S 74.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 15.7S 72.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 81.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THIS CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG
EASTERLY SHEAR. THIS SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL SLOWLY ABATE OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING THE TC TO INTENSIFY, BUT AT A LESS THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z AND 252100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20051225 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250600Z --- NEAR 13.0S 79.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 79.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 13.6S 77.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 14.2S 74.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 15.0S 71.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 15.8S 69.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 78.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. DUE TO A MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, THE STORM WILL NOT
INTENSIFY MUCH PAST ITS CURRENT STRENGTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z AND
260900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20051225 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251800Z --- NEAR 13.7S 77.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 77.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 14.1S 74.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 76.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM SOUTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
WANING DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS DECOUPLED NEARLY 100 NM TO THE WEST
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE
OVER WATER. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).  THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 251800Z IS 12 FEET.//
=========================================================================

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_200604_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]