Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone BOLOETSE : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2005-2006 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone BOLOETSE Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20060124 21:30z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/242121ZJAN2006// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.5S 51.7E TO 22.0S 49.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 241800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.5S 51.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.2S 52.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.5S 51.7E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTH- WEST OF LA REUNION. A 241918Z AMSU-B IMAGE DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER A VERY SMALL, BUT WELL-DEFINED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ALTHOUGH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE DISTURBANCE INDICATE ONLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS OF WIND AND PRESSURES RANGING BETWEEN 1012 MB AND 1014 MB, IT IS LIKELY THAT OBSERVATION COVERAGE IS UNABLE TO RESOLVE THE PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD OF THIS SMALL SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH IMPROVING POLEWARD DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 252130Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20060125 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING // REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/242121Z JAN 06// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250000Z --- NEAR 18.9S 51.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 51.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 19.7S 50.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 21.0S 49.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 22.2S 49.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 23.3S 49.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 250300Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 51.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SMALL CYCLONE WILL TRACK POLEWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 24 HOURS. NONETHELESS, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL WEAKEN THE CYCLONE THEREAFTER. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 242121Z JAN 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 242130). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z AND 260300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20060125 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/251351ZJAN2006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251200Z --- NEAR 20.3S 50.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 50.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 21.6S 50.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 22.7S 50.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 23.3S 49.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 23.6S 49.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 251500Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 50.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST OF LA REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SUSTAINED CONVECTION, AND RADIAL OUTFLOW HAS NOW STARTED TO IMPROVE. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 09S SHOULD REMAIN ON A POLEWARD TRACK AS THE STEERING FLOW IS CONTROLLED BY AN ANTICYCLONE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD AS A TRANSIENT MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN THE STEERING FLOW. THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN WEAKEN AS TC 09S MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND OUTFLOW BECOMES DAMPENED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z AND 261500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20060126 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260000Z --- NEAR 21.9S 50.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 50.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 23.2S 50.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 23.7S 50.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 23.9S 49.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 23.7S 49.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 260300Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 50.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST OF LA REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS SUSTAINED CONVECTION WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND SLOW AS A TRANSIENT MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STEERING FLOW OF THE RIDGE. AS THIS TROUGH PROGRESSES TO THE EAST, THE TC WILL TRANSITION TO A WESTWARD TRACK AS A MIDLATITUDE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE SYSTEM HAS REACHED MAX INTENSITY AND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS OUTFLOW BECOMES DAMPENED WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z AND 270300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20060126 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 261200Z --- NEAR 23.1S 50.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S 50.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 23.6S 50.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 23.2S 50.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 22.9S 50.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 22.6S 49.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 261500Z POSITION NEAR 23.2S 50.7E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 12 FEET. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DIMINISHING CONVECT- ION. TC 09S IS ENTERING AN ENVIRONMENT OF AMBIGUOUS STEERING BETWEEN RIDGES TO THE EAST AND WEST. A MIDLATITUDE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE AND RESULT IN A WEST- WARD TRACK NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THE STORM HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, IT SHOULD REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN WARNING STATUS FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z AND 271500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20060127 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270000Z --- NEAR 22.8S 50.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 50.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 22.4S 50.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 22.3S 50.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 22.4S 49.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 270300Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 50.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 262158Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS REVEAL A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE CENTER. TC 09S WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TOWARD THE WEST AS EASTERN STEERING RIDGE BUILDS WEST. SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS TC 09S BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER LAND AND AN ENVIRONMENT OF UNFAVORBALE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z AND 280300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20060127 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271200Z --- NEAR 22.5S 50.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 50.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 22.2S 50.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 22.1S 49.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 22.2S 48.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 271500Z POSITION NEAR 22.4S 50.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION. TC 09S IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED WESTWARD BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD UNTIL AN UNFAVORABLE SHEAR AND MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT CAUSES THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA AROUND TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z AND 281500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20060128 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280000Z --- NEAR 21.9S 50.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 50.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 21.8S 49.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 22.0S 48.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 22.3S 46.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 280300Z POSITION NEAR 21.9S 49.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM WEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 09S IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED NORTHWESTWARD BY A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RENEWED CONVECTION JUST TO THE EAST OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN BY 24 HOURS AS IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z AND 290300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20060128 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281200Z --- NEAR 21.2S 49.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 49.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 20.9S 48.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 20.6S 48.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 20.5S 47.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 20.5S 47.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 281500Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 49.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEAL A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z AND 291500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20060129 03:00Z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z --- NEAR 20.7S 48.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 48.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 20.4S 47.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 20.4S 46.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 290300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 48.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A RECENT 282228Z AMSR-E PASS DEPICTS A LANDFALLING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS BEGINNING TO ELONGATE COASTALLY. A BUILDING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF LA REUNION WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM TRACKING INLAND UNTIL DISSIPATION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.// ========================================================================= WTXS21 PGTW 20060130 20:30z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/242121ZJAN2006// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.1S 42.7E TO 20.0S 40.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 301730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.2S 42.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 18.2S 42.5E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WITH CONVECTION INCREASING IN THE VICINITY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SUR- FACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. DUE TO INCREASING CONVECTION AND AN INCREAS- INGLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 312030Z. ========================================================================= WTXS21 PGTW 20060131 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/302021ZJAN2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 311800Z --- NEAR 20.0S 38.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 38.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 20.5S 37.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 20.9S 36.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 21.3S 36.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 21.8S 36.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 23.9S 37.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 312100Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 38.6E. TC 09S (BOLOETSE) HAS REGENERATED TO WARNING CRITERIA AFTER REEMERGING IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BY A BROAD 700 MB RIDGE TO THE SOUTH- EAST OF THE STORM. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT MERIDIONALLY, RESULTING IN A SLOW TURN TO THE SOUTH- EAST. THE STORM IS BENEFITING FROM A LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A DEVELOPING OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF MADAGASCAR WHICH WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIG- NIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 302021ZJAN2006 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20060201 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 20.0S 38.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 38.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 20.2S 38.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 20.7S 37.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 21.1S 36.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 21.7S 37.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 24.3S 39.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 010300Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 38.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BY A BROAD BUT WEAK 700 MB RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM. THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT HAS RESULTED IN THE NEARLY STATIONARY MOVEMENT OF THE STORM OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND REORIENT MERIDIONALLY, RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SPEED TO THE SOUTHWEST FOLLOWED BY A SLOW TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE STORM IS BENEFITING FROM A LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A DEVELOPING OUT- FLOW CHANNEL INTO A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF MADAGASCAR WHICH WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20060201 09:00z COR MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 012A CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 19.2S 38.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 38.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 18.9S 37.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 18.9S 36.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 19.6S 36.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 20.9S 37.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 25.0S 41.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 010900Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 37.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 09S REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO RIDGES ON THE EAST AND WEST RESPECTIVELY. THE EASTERN RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM BY TAU 24, AS 09S BEGINS TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE STORM CONTINUES TO BENEFIT FROM A LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND AN EXISTING OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: MISSTATEMENT OF DOMINANT WESTERN RIDGE VISE THE ACTUAL DOMINANT EASTERN RIDGE IN REMARKS.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20060201 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z --- NEAR 19.1S 37.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 37.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 18.8S 37.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 19.3S 37.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 20.3S 37.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 21.4S 38.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 25.0S 40.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 011500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 37.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 09S REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGES ON THE EAST AND WEST RESPECTIVELY. THE EASTERN RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM BY TAU 24 AND 09S WILL BEGIN TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG ITS SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BENEFIT FROM AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20060201 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011800Z --- NEAR 19.2S 38.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 38.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 19.5S 38.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 19.8S 38.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 20.3S 39.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 21.2S 39.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 23.4S 41.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 012100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 38.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. SATELLITE FIXES OVER THE LAST 18 HOURS INDICATE THAT TC 09S IS BEGINNING TO LOOP CYCLONICALLY. THE STORM REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE COMPETING INFLUENCE OF RIDGES TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE. A TRANSIENT MIDLATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY POLEWARD OF TC 09S IS NOT EXPECTED TO ALTER THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH 36 HOURS. AS A SECONDARY TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BY 48 HOURS, THE EASTERN STEERING RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN, AND THE TC 09S SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG ITS SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20060202 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 19.6S 38.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 38.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 20.6S 39.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 21.9S 40.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 23.5S 41.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 25.3S 42.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 020900Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 38.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOESTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A WELL DEFINED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC 09S REMAINS IN A QUASISTATIONARY STEERING ENVIRONMENT, HOWEVER IT HAS BEGUN TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE ANTICYCLONE SITUATED TO THE EAST WILL BUILD OVER NORTHERN MADAGASCAR AND CAUSE TC 09S TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY OF TC 09S WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH TAU 24 AS OUTFLOW IS SUSTAINED AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS LOW. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 24, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TC 09S WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 48 AND BEGIN TO QUICKLY WEAKEN THEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM MERGES WITH THE MID- LATITUDE WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z AND 030900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20060202 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021200Z --- NEAR 19.7S 38.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 38.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 20.0S 38.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 21.1S 38.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 22.8S 40.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 24.7S 41.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 021500Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 38.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOESTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. SSMI AND SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY BETWEEN 020500Z AND 020530Z SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF AN EYE, AND MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A TIGHTLY CURVED BAND. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY QUASISTATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN REGIONS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND SOUTH AFRICA KEEPS THE SYSTEM FROM TRACKING POLEWARD. BETWEEN TAUS 12 AND 24, AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL BREAKDOWN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND ALLOW TC 09S TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD. ADDITIONALLY, THE ANTICYCLONE SITUATED TO THE EAST OF MADAGASCAR WILL ALSO AID IN THE STEERING FLOW. THE INTENSITY OF TC 09S WILL PEAK IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF SUSTAINED OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, ONCE THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT TO THE ANTICYCLONE, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND TC 09S WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z AND 031500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20060203 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030000Z --- NEAR 20.3S 39.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 39.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 21.2S 40.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 22.4S 41.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 24.3S 42.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 26.4S 45.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 31.0S 50.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 030300Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 39.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOESTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 022321Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH RENEWED DEEP CONVECTION FORMING NEAR THE STORM CENTER AND WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH THE 12-HOUR STORM MOTION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT ERRATIC TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST, TC 09S IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF MADAGASCAR. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS GIVEN FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, AND THE SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BY THE 36-HOUR FORECAST POINT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 34 FEET. THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER IS RESUMING A SIX HOUR WARNING CYCLE FOR THIS SYSTEM. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20060203 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030600Z --- NEAR 20.9S 39.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S 39.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 22.3S 41.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 24.0S 42.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 25.9S 44.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 28.2S 46.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 34.9S 52.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 030900Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 40.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOESTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A SMALL, RAGGED EYE, AND ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW. TC 09S HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE FORWARD SPEED AND IS BEING STEERED BY A BUILDING RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE EAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER NORTHERN MADAGASCAR THROUGH TAU 36. BY TAU 48, AN APPROACHING MID- LATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL START TO INFLUENCE BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TC 09S. OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVOR- ABLE HOWEVER, INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER TAU 36 TO 48 WILL CAUSE TC 09S TO BEGIN RAPID WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW BY TAU 72 AS IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20060203 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031200Z --- NEAR 21.4S 40.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 40.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 22.8S 42.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 24.5S 43.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 26.5S 44.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 29.4S 47.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 28 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 38.2S 55.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 031500Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 41.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOESTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTION HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY ASYMMETRIC WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHTLY SMALLER AND CLOUD-FILLED EYE, NOW WITH A RADIUS OF 06 NM. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK AS IT IS BEING STEERED BY A BUILDING RIDGE EXTENDING OVER NORTHERN MADA- GASCAR. HOWEVER, AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER STEERING WINDS AS WELL AS THE VERTI- CAL WIND SHEAR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AS A RESULT, TC 09S WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FORWARD SPEED AND START A RAPID WEAKENING TREND. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (XT) AND SHOULD COMPLETE XT BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20060203 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 22.3S 41.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 41.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 23.9S 42.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 25.5S 44.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 27.9S 46.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 30.6S 48.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 37.4S 56.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 032100Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 41.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOESTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED SAT- ELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 09S HAS REDEVELOPED A SMALL SYMMETRIC EYE IN THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A SOUTH- EASTERLY TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH INCREASED THE STEERING FLOW GRADIENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, THIS GRADIENT HAS RELAXED SLIGHTLY AND WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, TC 09S WILL RESUME ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE MIDLATITUDES AND SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20060204 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040000Z --- NEAR 23.2S 42.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.2S 42.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 24.9S 43.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 26.9S 45.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 29.5S 47.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 19 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 32.5S 49.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 38.4S 58.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 040300Z POSITION NEAR 23.6S 42.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOESTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED SAT- ELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 09S HAS ONCE AGAIN LOST A VISIBLE EYE ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS DISCERNIBLE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM REACHED MAXIMUM INTENSITY NEARLY SIX HOURS AGO AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE INCREASED LAND INTERACTION AND HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A SOUTHEASTLY TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS TRACK WILL FACILITATE THE BEGINNING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (XT) BY TAU 36 AND COMPLETION BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIG- NIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z, AND 050300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20060204 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 023 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040600Z --- NEAR 23.9S 42.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.9S 42.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 26.0S 44.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 28.2S 45.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 31.1S 48.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 21 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 34.0S 51.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 29 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 41.7S 63.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 040900Z POSITION NEAR 24.4S 43.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 040438Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BANDING EYE, WITH MAXIMUM CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN QUADRANTS. THE EASTERN STEERING RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT STEERING FORCE UNTIL AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OVERTAKES TC 09S AND CAUSES A TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20060204 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041200Z --- NEAR 24.9S 43.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.9S 43.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 27.2S 45.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 30.1S 47.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 33.2S 50.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 25 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 36.8S 54.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 42.4S 66.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 041500Z POSITION NEAR 25.5S 44.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES A DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE EASTERN STEERING RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT STEERING FORCE UNTIL AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OVERTAKES TC 09S AND CAUSES A TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20060204 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041800Z --- NEAR 26.1S 44.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 26.1S 44.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 28.9S 46.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 31.9S 49.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 35.1S 53.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 27 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 37.7S 59.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 042100Z POSITION NEAR 26.8S 45.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- EASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 09S HAS WEAKENED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH MADA- GASCAR AND A HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL ADD TO THE VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND WILL RESULT IN AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z, AND 052100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20060205 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z --- NEAR 27.2S 45.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.2S 45.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 30.0S 47.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 33.1S 51.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 36.2S 56.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 050300Z POSITION NEAR 27.9S 45.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 09S CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS CENTERED JUST NORTH AND BETWEEN TWO MIDLATITUDE TROUGHS. THE SECOND OF THESE TROUGHS WILL FACILITATE ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION FULLY BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20060205 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 027 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050600Z --- NEAR 28.8S 46.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.8S 46.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 32.3S 49.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 28 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 36.2S 54.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 050900Z POSITION NEAR 29.7S 47.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM SOUTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 09S CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH- EAST. TC 09S WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING MID- LATITUDE TROUGH AND TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20060205 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 028 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051200Z --- NEAR 30.4S 47.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 20 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 30.4S 47.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 33.8S 51.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 29 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 37.3S 57.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 051500Z POSITION NEAR 31.2S 48.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 690 NM SOUTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MAXIMUM CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN THE BEGINNING STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITH A DEVELOPING DRY NOTCH IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. TC 09S WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST BY TAU 24, AT WHICH POINT THE STORM WILL FULLY TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20060205 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 029 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051800Z --- NEAR 31.6S 48.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL REPEAT POSIT: 31.6S 48.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 35.0S 53.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 052100Z POSITION NEAR 32.4S 50.0E. TC 09S IS RAPIDLY TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BE COMPLETE BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 14 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_boloetse_jtwc_advisories.htm
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