Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone HUBERT : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2005-2006 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone HUBERT Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20060404 20:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/042021ZAPR2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 130
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6S 115.5E TO 17.7S 113.5E WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUM-
BERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 041730Z INDICATES
THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 114.9E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3S
115.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 114.9E, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM NORTH
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS
AN INCREASE IN RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS SITUATED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
AND NOW BEGINNING TO TRACK POLEWARD INTO THE RIDGE. ADDITIONALLY, THE
LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH
FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTI-
MATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
052030Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060405 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/042021ZAPR2006//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 116.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 116.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 17.4S 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.2S 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 18.9S 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.7S 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 20.9S 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 116.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK POLEWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN
AUSTRALIA. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INITIALLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT
OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND AS IT
TRAVERSES VERY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THE STORM
WILL WEAKEN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT ENCOUNTERS SHARP
GRADIENTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 042021Z APR 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21
PGTW 042030). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060405 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUBERT) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 17.1S 116.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 116.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 17.9S 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 18.6S 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.3S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.9S 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.1S 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 116.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21S (HUBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS A SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE MASS CONSOLIDATING JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 21S SHOULD INTENSIFY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, IMPROVING
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND AS IT TRAVERSES VERY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THE STORM WILL WEAKEN BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS
AS IT ENCOUNTERS SHARP GRADIENTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MID-LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z
AND 061500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060405 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUBERT) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 17.9S 115.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 115.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.7S 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.5S 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 20.4S 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.5S 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 23.6S 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 115.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST-
WARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 21S IS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER AUSTRALIA. THE
STORM SHOULD INTENSIFY IN THE NEAR TERM AS IT BENEFITS FROM A
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
AS TC 21S MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL IN-
CREASE PAST TAU 48, RESULTING IN A WEAKENING TREND AND THE
BEGINNING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z,
060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060406 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUBERT) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 18.1S 115.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 115.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 18.9S 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.0S 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 21.2S 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.3S 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 24.4S 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 115.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS EXPOSED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.
THE SYSTEM HAS NOT MOVED AS FAR WESTWARD AS ANTICIPATED. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM HAS NOT FILLED
AS EXPECTED. THIS HAS CAUSED A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO REMAIN,
RESULTING IN A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS HIGHER
THAN FORECAST AS WELL, AS EVIDENCED BY THE EXPOSED LLCC. AN OUT-
FLOW CHANNEL HAS DEVELOPED AS TS 21S MOVES CLOSER TO THE MIDLAT-
ITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE BRIEF INTENSIFI-
CATION BEFORE INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND LANDFALL COMBINE TO WEAKEN THE STORM PAST TAU 24.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060406 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUBERT) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 18.5S 115.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 115.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.7S 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 20.8S 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.9S 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 23.5S 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 26.4S 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 115.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MULTISPECTRAL
AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DENSE CONVECTION.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, THE DEVELOP-
MENT OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL
JET OVER SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BRIEFLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS BEFORE CAUSING A DETRIMENTAL
EFFECT ON THE SYSTEM. WEAK MIDLEVEL RIDGING DUE SOUTH OF TC 21S HAS
CAUSED THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT AN
ADVANCING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL ERODE THIS RIDGE AND CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO TRACK NEARLY DUE SOUTH AFTER TAU 12. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z,
062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060406 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUBERT) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 19.1S 115.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 115.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.5S 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 22.1S 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 23.9S 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 115.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. SYSTEM CENTER
HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT
MULTIPLE MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASSES OVER THE LAST 06 HOURS REVEAL
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING NEARLY DUE SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY, A 061236Z
SSMI-S MICROWAVE PASS INDICATES THE CONVECTION IS NOW SUPERIMPOSED
WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 21S WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
STEERING RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS
CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS BUT WILL THEN START TO
WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND AND EXPERIENCES NORTH-
WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER SOUTHWESTERN
AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060406 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUBERT) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 19.7S 115.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 115.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 21.1S 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 22.4S 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 23.3S 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 115.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 21S CONTINUES
TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED STEERING RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS. THE
STORM WILL THEN WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND AN INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 061800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z
AND 072100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060407 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUBERT) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 20.4S 115.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 115.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 21.6S 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.7S 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 115.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 21S WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHWARD TRACK UNTIL LANDFALL NEAR TAU 12. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND LAND INTERACTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STORM SLIGHTLY
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060407 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUBERT) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 20.5S 114.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 114.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.7S 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 22.9S 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 24.3S 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 010 KT, GUSTS 020 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 114.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 21S WILL
CONTINUE ITS SOUTHERLY TRACK AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 12.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTIONS WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM
TO WEAKEN PRIOR TO LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
070600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z
AND 080900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060407 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUBERT) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 21.3S 115.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 115.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.5S 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.5S 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 115.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 95 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE 071200Z POSITION WAS
APPROXIMATELY 10 NM OFF SHORE AND TC 21S WILL MAKE LANDFALL
SOUTHWEST OF MARDIE, AUSTRALIA AFTER WHICH THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.
//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060407 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUBERT) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 21.7S 115.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 115.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 22.4S 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 21.9S 115.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 95 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TC 21S IS NOW LOCATED
OVER LAND. THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 21S HAS DIS-
SIPATED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AS IT MOVES INLAND. THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z
IS 12 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_hubert_jtwc_advisories.htm
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