WTPS21 PGTW 20060317 21:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/172121ZMAR2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.4S 158.2E TO 18.8S 152.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 211800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.5S 157.9E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5S
160.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 157.9E, APPROXIMATELY 700 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
INCREASED LOW TO MIDLEVEL ORGANIZATION AND FLARING CONVECTION OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. A RECENT 171828Z TRMM PASS REVEALS INCREASED LOW
LEVEL ORGANIZATION WITH STRONG BANDING CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERAL. SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY LIMITED BY A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE, WHICH HAS STARTED TO FILL OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIM-
ATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON IMPROVED LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION AND THE
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
182130Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20060318 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/172121ZMAR2006//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LARRY) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180000Z --- NEAR 16.9S 156.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 156.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 17.6S 154.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 18.2S 152.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 18.9S 150.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 19.7S 147.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 20.8S 144.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 156.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (LARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST
OF CAIRNES, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 17S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DUE TO
AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS WARNING SUPER-
SEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 172121Z MAR 06 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 172130) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z,
182100Z AND 190300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20060318 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LARRY) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180600Z --- NEAR 17.2S 155.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 155.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 17.6S 153.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 18.2S 150.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 18.7S 148.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 19.3S 146.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 20.3S 143.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 155.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (LARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. TC 17S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PER-
IPHERY OF A RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN IN A LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW
CHANNEL WILL LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 180600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z
AND 190900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20060318 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LARRY) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181200Z --- NEAR 17.3S 154.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 154.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 17.7S 151.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 18.0S 148.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 18.2S 146.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 18.4S 143.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 153.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (LARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. TC 17P CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH THE
LACK OF A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL LIMIT INTENSIFICATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20060318 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LARRY) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181800Z --- NEAR 17.6S 152.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 152.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 17.9S 150.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 18.2S 147.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 18.5S 145.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 152.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (LARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. TC 17P CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH THE
LACK OF A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL LIMIT INTENSIFICATION.
THE STORM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 24 AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS BETWEEN TOWNSVILLE AND CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z,
190900Z, 191500Z, AND 192100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20060319 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LARRY) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190000Z --- NEAR 17.8S 151.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 151.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 18.1S 148.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 18.4S 145.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 18.7S 143.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 150.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (LARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. TC 17P CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
INCREASED OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
DUE TO LINKAGE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA.
SYSTEM INTENSITY WILL BE HAMPERED DUE TO INTERACTIONS WITH LAND
AND THE STORM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 12 AS IT TRAVERSES
THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE AUSTRALIAN INTERIOR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20060319 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LARRY) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190600Z --- NEAR 17.8S 149.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 149.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 17.8S 147.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 18.2S 144.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 18.8S 142.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 149.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (LARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. TC 17P CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED AND IS
BENEFITING FROM RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. INTENSIFICATION WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL JUST PAST
TAU 12 AFTER WHICH THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO TOPOGRAPHIC
EFFECTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z, AND 201500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20060319 15:00z  
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191352Z MAR 06//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARING. 
RMKS/        
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LARRY) WARNING NR 007    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191200Z --- NEAR 17.7S 148.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 148.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 17.7S 145.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 18.2S 142.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 147.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (LARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 17P CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH. THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BENEFIT FROM RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. TC 17P HAS REACHED NEAR MAXIMUM INTENSITY
AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN CAIRNS AND TOWNSVILLE IN LESS
THAN 12 HOURS. TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE, AND IT WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
192100Z AND 200300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WATI) WARNING 
(WTPS32 PGTW 191500) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20060319 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191952ZMAR2006//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LARRY) WARNING NR 008
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191800Z --- NEAR 17.6S 146.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 146.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 17.7S 144.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 18.2S 142.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 146.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (LARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 17P HAS REACHED MAXIMUM
INTENSITY AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR INNISFAIL, AUSTRALIA IN
LESS THAN THREE HOURS. TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE, AND IT WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P
(WATI) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW 192100) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20060320 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200152ZMAR2006//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LARRY) WARNING NR 009
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200000Z --- NEAR 17.7S 145.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 145.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 18.1S 142.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 18.5S 141.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 144.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (LARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 17P MADE LANDFALL NEAR INNISFAIL, AUSTRALIA
AND WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND. NEXT WARNINGS AT
200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WATI)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW 200300) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20060320 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200752ZMAR2006//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LARRY) WARNING NR 010
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200600Z --- NEAR 18.0S 144.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 144.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 18.5S 141.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 143.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (LARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 17P IS
RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER MAINLAND AUSTRALIA. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WATI)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW 200900) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_larry_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]