Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone TAM : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2005-2006 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone TAM Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PGTW 20060112 20:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/072021ZJAN2006// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.0S 175.9W TO 21.0S 169.2W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 121730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 174.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 175.7W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 174.2W, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DEPICTED IN THE 120831Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS VERIFY SURFACE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH A GRADIENT OF INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 132000Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20060113 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121951ZJAN2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (TAM) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 17.0S 172.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 172.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 19.4S 170.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 22.4S 169.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 25.7S 168.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 19 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 29.1S 166.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 130300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 172.1W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (TAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEAST AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 06P CONTINUES TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AND TRANSLATE RAPIDLY. TC 06P WILL PEAK IN INTENSIY LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT ENTERS AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 121951ZJAN2006 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 122000) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 09 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z AND 140300Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20060113 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (TAM) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z --- NEAR 19.8S 170.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 170.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 24.3S 168.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 26 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 29.2S 167.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 28 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 34.4S 164.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 30 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 38.5S 158.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 131500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 169.9W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (TAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND CONVECTION IS LIKELY SHEARED FROM THE LLCC. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. TC 06P WILL TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT LINKS WITH A TRANSIENT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 09 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND 141500Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20060114 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (TAM) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 27.2S 167.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 40 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 27.2S 167.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 35.0S 164.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 45 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 43.2S 159.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 140300Z POSITION NEAR 29.1S 166.9W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (TAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM SOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED RAPIDLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 40 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND VERY FAST FORWARD SPEED HAVE CAUSED TC 06P TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 06P IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 5 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_tam_jtwc_advisories.htm
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