Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone WATI : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2005-2006 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTPS21 PGTW 20060319 08:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/190752ZMAR2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6S 164.8E TO 18.5S 158.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 190530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.7S 164.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 15.7S 164.4E, APPROXIMATELY
415 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS PERSISTED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING SUPERPOSED WITH
A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS IND-
ICATES THE AREA IS AN ENVIRONMENT OF DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS EST-
IMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT AND IN-
CREASED CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
200800Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20060319 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190752Z MAR 06//
REF/B/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191351Z MAR 06//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.
REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WATI) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 163.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 163.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.9S 160.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.8S 158.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.5S 156.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.9S 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 162.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (WATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 18P IS
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHEASTERN EXTENT OF A
LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 18P WILL TRACK IN A
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DUE TO ITS ORIENTATION WITH THE STEERING RIDGE, OUTFLOW IS ONLY
FAVORABLE IN THE EQUATORWARD DIRECTION. THIS LACK OF OUTFLOW
AND AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF TC 18P. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 190752Z MAR 06 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 190800). MAXIMUM SIGNIF-
ICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
200300Z AND 201500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LARRY)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW 191500) FOR LVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20060319 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191951ZMAR2006//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WATI) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 16.8S 161.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 161.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.0S 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.9S 157.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.3S 156.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.4S 154.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.2S 153.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 161.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (WATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 18P REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND WILL TRACK IN
A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH TAU 36. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES OUTFLOW FROM TC 17P IS INHIBITING OUTFLOW ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF WATI. THIS IS LIMITING RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF TC 18P WITH
ONLY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW IN THE EQUATORWARD DIRECTION. BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 18P WILL SLOW IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
AND WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED SHEAR FROM THE
SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 17P (LARRY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW 192100) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20060320 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200151ZMAR2006//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WATI) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 17.2S 160.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 160.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.1S 157.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.5S 155.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.8S 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.1S 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.0S 152.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 159.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (WATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 820 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 18P REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND WILL TRACK IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH TAU 36. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 18P
REMAINS IN A MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT LIMITING OUTFLOW TO THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE TRACK OF
TC 18P WILL SLOW IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SHEAR FROM THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z,
202100Z AND 210300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LARRY) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW 200300) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20060320 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751ZMAR2006//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WATI) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 17.6S 158.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 158.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.2S 156.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.8S 154.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.2S 154.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 19.6S 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.6S 157.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 158.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (WATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 18P REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND WILL TRACK IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH TAU 24. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW, TURN
SOUTHWARD, AND EVENTUALLY ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES MOVE EQUATORWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 200600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND
210900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LARRY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW
200900) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20060320 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WATI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 17.9S 157.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 157.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.6S 155.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.1S 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.5S 154.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 19.9S 154.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.6S 158.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 157.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (WATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 18P IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL STEER THE SYSTEM TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE PAST TAU 24 AND CAUSE A FULL EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72. WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN A
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, POOR UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 24, VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL INCREASE, RESULTING IN A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE RE-
MAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20060320 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WATI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 17.7S 156.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 156.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 17.9S 154.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.2S 153.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.8S 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.4S 153.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 21.0S 154.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 155.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (WATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. TC 18P IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO STEER THE SYSTEM TOWARD
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THIS STEERING RIDGE AND INDUCE A POLEWARD TURN
BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HRS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT
REMAINS IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW IMPROVES. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 18P WILL
INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20060321 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WATI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 17.6S 155.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 155.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 17.6S 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 18.0S 153.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.5S 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.2S 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 21.1S 155.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 155.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (WATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. TC 18P IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO STEER THE SYSTEM TOWARD
THE WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN THIS STEERING RIDGE AND INDUCE A POLEWARD TURN BY 24 HRS. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT REMAINS IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IMPROVES. TC 18P WILL BEGIN
TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW AND START EXTRATROPICAL TRAN-
SITION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z,
212100Z AND 220300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20060321 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WATI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 17.9S 154.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 154.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.2S 153.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.6S 153.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.0S 153.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 19.8S 154.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 22.5S 157.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 154.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (WATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS AN INCREASE IN OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, HOWEVER
OUTFLOW REMAINS INHIBITED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. TC 18P IS BEING
STEERED BY AN ANTICYCLONE SITUATED OVER THE GREAT BARRIER REEF AND
AN ANTICYCLONE SITUATED OVER VANUATU. THE SHARED INFLUENCE OF THESE
TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS HAS KEPT TC 18P ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK.
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THE WESTERN ANTICYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO WEA-
KEN AND THE EASTERN ANTICYCLONE WILL REORIENT NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO A DIGGING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH EQUATORWARD OF NEW
ZEALAND. THIS CHANGE IN RIDGE ORIENTATION WILL MODIFY THE STEERING
FLOW, CAUSING A RECURVATURE. ONCE TC 18P MOVES OUT OF THE TURN, IT
WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INTENSITY OF TC 18P
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT REMAINS UNDER FAVOR-
ABLE CONDITIONS, HOWEVER ONCE IT BEGINS TRACKING POLEWARD, IT WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20060321 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WATI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 17.7S 154.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 154.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.8S 153.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.2S 152.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 18.8S 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 19.6S 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.3S 156.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 154.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (WATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A
SLIGHT WOBBLE IN THE DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER, AND THE CURRENT POSITION HAS TRACKED SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD.
TWO ANTICYCLONES ARE CONTROLLING THE STEERING FLOW OF TC 18P. ONE IS
SITUATED EAST OF TC 18P, OVER VANUATU, WHILE A SMALLER ANTICYCLONE IS
LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA. DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS, TC 18P
WILL TRACK INTO A WEAKER STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS THE WESTERN ANTI-
CYCLONE BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE AND THE EASTERN ANTICYCLONE REORIENTS
ALONG A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AXIS. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. THE
INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, THEN
DECREASE AS TC 18P MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 29 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20060321 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WATI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 17.5S 153.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 153.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.7S 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.2S 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 19.0S 152.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 20.2S 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 23.0S 156.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 153.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (WATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND
DEVELOPED GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE TRACK OF TC 18P IS FORECAST
TO BEGIN A SLOW POLEWARD SHIFT AS THE EASTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD WESTWARD AND BECOMES THE PREDOMINATE STEERING MECHANISM.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20060322 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WATI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 17.6S 153.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 153.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.9S 153.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 18.3S 153.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 19.0S 154.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 20.0S 154.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 22.1S 157.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 153.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (WATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTIVE MASS DIRECTLY OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 18P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A SLOW
POLEWARD TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY EARLY
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z,
222100Z, AND 230300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20060322 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WATI) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 17.9S 153.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 153.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.4S 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 18.9S 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.7S 155.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 21.2S 156.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 25.0S 159.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 153.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (WATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS WITH SIGNIFICANT
OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE MOVEMENT OF TC 18P HAS BECOME
QUASISTATIONARY DUE TO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A RIDGE SITUATED
OVER VANUATU AND FIJI WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND
CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS. THE INTENSITY OF TC 18P WILL INCREASE AS OUTFLOW
IMPROVES, HOWEVER STORM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS POLEWARD INTO HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BEGINS EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 36
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20060322 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WATI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 18.0S 153.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 153.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 18.5S 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 19.2S 154.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 20.5S 155.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.0S 156.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 25.8S 158.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 153.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (WATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS RADIAL
OUTFLOW HAS INCREASED, AND A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS NOW WRAPPING
INTO A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH EQUATORWARD OF NEW ZEALAND. OVER THE
PAST 18 HOURS, TC 18P HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED SOUTHWEST DUE TO A WEAKLY
DEFINED STEERING ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE INTENSITY OF TC 18P WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH
TAU 24 THEN WEAKEN DUE TO TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
221200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND
231500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20060322 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WATI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 18.1S 153.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - QUASI-STATIONARY
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 153.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 18.3S 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.1S 154.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 21.2S 156.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 23.7S 157.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 29.1S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 153.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (WATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM NORTH
OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE
LOSS OF THE EMBEDDED CENTER AND DECREASED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION DUE
TO INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AS A TROUGH DEEPENS
INTO THE CORAL SEA, TC 18P WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND
BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20060323 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WATI) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 18.6S 154.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 154.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 19.4S 155.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 21.1S 156.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 23.4S 157.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 26.3S 159.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 32.6S 164.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 154.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (WATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM NORTH
OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. TC 18P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. A TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO THE TASMAN
AND CORAL SEAS BY TAU 36 WILL CAUSE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU
72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND 231500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20060323 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WATI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 19.0S 155.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 155.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 20.5S 156.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 22.9S 158.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 25.7S 159.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 29.2S 162.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 155.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (WATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM NORTH
OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE FROM THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION, AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IN THE TASMAN SEA. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL
BE COMPLETE BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS
29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300 AND 240900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20060323 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WATI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 19.0S 156.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 156.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 20.4S 158.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.7S 159.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 25.8S 161.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 29.0S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 156.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (WATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE RECENT EASTWARD TRACK IS
DUE TO A FINGER OF A STEERING RIDGE SITUATED EQUATORWARD OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT TO THE EAST OF TC 18P.
THIS, COMBINED WITH THE BEGINNING OF INCLUSION IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE, WILL ACCELERATE 18P TO THE SOUTHEAST PAST TAU 12. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND WILL RESULT IN DECLINING
INTENSITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
WILL BE COMPLETE BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
231200Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900, 241500Z AND
242100.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20060323 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WATI) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 20.1S 157.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 157.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 22.5S 159.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 25.1S 161.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 28.5S 163.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 32.7S 166.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 157.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (WATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ENHANCED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A DEEPENING OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO THE CORAL
SEA. TC 18P WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH AND CONTINUE TO
ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z
IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20060324 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WATI) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 21.1S 158.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 158.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 24.1S 160.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 27.6S 162.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 31.5S 164.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 21.9S 159.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (WATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ENHANCED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS THE MIDLATITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH IMPINGING ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TC 18P. TC 18P WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE
STRENGTH AS IT ACCELERATES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND UNDERGOES EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z
IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND
250300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20060324 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WATI) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 22.1S 159.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 159.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 24.7S 162.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 27.9S 164.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 160.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (WATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM
WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ENHANCED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS A MIDLATITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF TC 18P. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS INCREASING IN THE
AREA, AND COLD AIR IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST. TC 18P
WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE STRENGTH, AS IT ACCELERATES TO THE SOUTH-
EAST AND UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. TRANSISTION WILL
BE COMPLETE BY TAU 24. FUTURE WARNINGS FROM JTWC WILL BE EVERY
12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20060324 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WATI) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 25.3S 162.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S 162.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 28.6S 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 26.1S 162.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (WATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND A
241603Z AMSU-B PASS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS COMPLETED EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 16 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_wati_jtwc_advisories.htm
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