Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone ANIKA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2008-2009 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone ANIKA Track Map and Data |
WTXS31 PGTW 20081118 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180921Z NOV 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 10.3S 94.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.3S 94.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 10.7S 96.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 11.2S 98.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 12.0S 100.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 12.8S 102.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 10.4S 95.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (TWO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY AND A 181511Z
AMSU-B IMAGE DEPICT A WELL-CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH IMPROVING DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH
SIDES OF THE CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS WANED SLIGHTLY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS, RECENT IMAGERY SHOWS A RESURGENCE IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WITH BANDING BECOMING TIGHTER AND BETTER DEFINED. THE LLCC
LIES BENEATH A WEAKLY DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY
WEAK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES MAY SERVE TO LIMIT THE MAXIMUM INTENS-
ITY OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE BASED UPON
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW RES-
PECTIVELY, AND A 180230Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTING 30 TO 40 WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
EQUATORWARD OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 180921Z NOV 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21
PGTW 180930 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 8 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND 192100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20081119 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ANIKA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 11.8S 97.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 97.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 12.8S 99.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 13.9S 101.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 14.8S 103.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 15.7S 105.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 98.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ANIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD MOTION
TO 15 KNOTS THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS CONVECTIVE SPIRAL BANDS HAVE CONSOLIDATED AROUND ITS LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 190237Z ASCAT PASS OVER THE
CYCLONE INDICATES WINDS 30-35 KNOTS TIGHTLY WRAPPED AROUND THE
LLCC. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF A 700 MB EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. ANALYSES INDICATE TC 02S
WILL MOVE INTO AN AREA OF COOLER SST'S, UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER TAU 24, WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 190600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20081119 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ANIKA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 12.6S 100.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 100.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 13.9S 102.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.2S 104.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.5S 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 17.4S 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 100.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ANIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM EAST
OF COCOS ISLAND HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE SPIRAL BANDS
WITH DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 191140Z ASCAT
PASS OVER THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO INDICATE WINDS 35 KNOTS AND
GREATER ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY TIGHTLY WRAPPED AROUND THE
LLCC. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF A 700 MB EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. ANALYSES INDICATE TC 02S WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO AN AREA OF COOLER SST'S, UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MODERATE TO
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER TAU 24, WHICH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
THE CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z AND 202100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
03S (THREE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20081120 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180921Z NOV 08//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ANIKA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 14.7S 102.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 102.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.4S 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.0S 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.3S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 20.4S 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.9S 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 102.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ANIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 805 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARD OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. THE
STORM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA AS A STEERING RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST OF THE
CYCLONE. DECREASED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE BY
TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20081120 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ANIKA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 15.7S 103.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 103.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.3S 105.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.9S 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 20.4S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 21.4S 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.9S 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 104.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ANIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 705 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON POSITION FIXES FROM
PGTW AND APRF, AND A 201143Z 37 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REFLECTS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND APRF
INDICATING A 35 TO 55 KNOT SYSTEM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED
IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENCROACHES ON THE
CYCLONE FROM THE SOUTHWEST, SHEARING CONVECTION TO SOUTHEAST. CLOUD
TOPS HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO WARM IN RESPONSE TO COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEAST-
WARD FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS, THEN LEVEL OFF TOWARDS THE EAST AS THE
SYSTEM WEAKENS. CONTINUED MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE CYCLONE THROUGH-
OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z
IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20081120 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ANIKA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 15.5S 105.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 105.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.3S 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 17.6S 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.7S 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.6S 117.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 105.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ANIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED IMAGERY HAS INDI-
CATED THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME SHEARED
FROM THE CONVECTION. THE LLCC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEAST WHILE THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST. TC 02S HAS MOVED
POLEWARD OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING AND HAS CONTINUED TO SEE
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE LLCC. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
DECREASING SST'S A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS HAS OCCURRED. THE LIKELIHOOD OF REDEVELOPMENT IS LOW AS THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE UNTIL LANDFALL. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS
8 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BERNARD) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
|
Document: tropical_cyclone_anika_jtwc_advisories.htm
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