Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone ASMA : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2008-2009 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTXS21 PGTW 20081016 16:30z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.7S 69.7E TO 7.7S 66.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 161530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.8S 69.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.6S 70.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.8S 68.7E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH CONVECTION BECOMING LESS SHEARED AND STARTING TO WRAP INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 161400Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH IMPROVED AND MORE INTENSE CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 160421Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED 25-30 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AND A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LLCC. THE LLCC REMAINS UNDER THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, BUT HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS). OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 171630Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20081016 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161621Z OCT 08// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z --- NEAR 5.5S 68.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 5.5S 68.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 5.7S 67.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 6.1S 67.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 6.7S 66.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 7.4S 65.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 162100Z POSITION NEAR 5.5S 68.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ONE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES AN ORANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION STARTING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA SUPPORTED A 30-35 KNOT SYSTEM AND RECENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS PROVIDING GOOD DIFFLUENCE BUT MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20-30 KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24. THE SYSTEM IS UNDER WEAK COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENTS WITH WESTWARD STEERING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH AND EASTWARD STEERING FROM STRONG, LOW LEVEL EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES. THEREFORE, TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD INTO AN AREA OF REDUCED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SHOULD INTENSIFY IN THE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AFTER TAU 24. THE COMPETING STEERING FLOWS HAVE LED TO POOR MODEL AGREEMENT ON BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS WITH TWO GROUPINGS. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND A STRONGER SYSTEM. A NUMBER OF MODELS INDICATE AN EASTWARD TRACK WITH A WEAK SYSTEM STEERING UNDER THE EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES (GFDN, EGRR, NOGAPS). THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 161621Z OCT 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 161630). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20081017 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 5.9S 68.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 5.9S 68.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 6.5S 67.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 7.1S 67.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 7.7S 66.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 8.2S 65.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 170900Z POSITION NEAR 6.0S 68.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ONE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS STARTED TO BECOME MORE CONCENTRIC WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT AT 35 KNOTS. RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGERY MISSED THE SYSTEM BUT INDICATES 20-25 KNOT WINDS ON THE BOUNDARY OF THE LLCC. THE UPPER LEVEL EN- VIRONMENT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE GOOD DIFFLUENCE BUT THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A REGION OF MODERATE TO HIGH NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH VALUES OF 20-30 KNOTS. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN LIMITING THE SYSTEM TO ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A WEAK COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH WESTWARD STEERING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH AND EASTWARD STEERING FROM STRONG, LOW LEVEL EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES. THEREFORE, TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD INTO AN AREA OF REDUCED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SHOULD INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20081017 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 7.2S 68.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 7.2S 68.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 8.3S 67.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 9.2S 67.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 10.2S 66.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 10.9S 65.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 172100Z POSITION NEAR 7.5S 68.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ONE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRC- ULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED FROM THE CONVECTION THAT CONTINUES TO FLARE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A 171330Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES A WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH 30 TO 35 KNOTS OF WIND ON THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE SOUTH- WESTERN QUADRANT HAS SIGNIFICANT RAIN FLAGGED WINDS, BUT IS CONSIST- ENT WITH ANIMATED IMAGERY SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARING OF THE CON- VECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS DIVIDED BY GOOD OUTFLOW ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH VALUES OF 20-30 KNOTS LIMITING THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DEVELOP- MENT AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS A REGION OF LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. STEERING REMAINS WEAKLY INFLUENCED BY WESTERLY FLOW EQUATORWARD OF SYSTEM AND A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING THE STR STRENG- THENING AND CAUSING THE MORE WESTWARD TURN BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48. INTENSITY WILL REMAIN STIFFLED BY THE HIGH LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THOUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z AND 182100Z. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20081018 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z --- NEAR 8.3S 67.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 8.3S 67.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 9.4S 66.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 10.5S 65.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 11.3S 64.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 11.7S 62.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 180900Z POSITION NEAR 8.6S 67.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ONE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT TC 01S HAS BEGUN TO TURN SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO SHEAR THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC. HOWEVER, STRONG DIFFLUENCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ENABLING THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY DESPITE HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TURNING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE CURRENT SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. FOLLOWING THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE WILL ENTER AN AREA OF LOWER, BUT STILL MODERATE, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THIS ANTICIPATED DECREASE IN SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW SLOW INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 12. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20081018 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181800Z --- NEAR 8.8S 67.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 8.8S 67.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 9.9S 66.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 10.9S 64.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 11.5S 62.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 11.5S 60.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 182100Z POSITION NEAR 9.1S 66.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ONE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO FLARE OVER AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, THOUGH A 181538Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE HAS INCREASED POSITION CERTAINTY. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW FMEE AND KNES RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO LIMIT SHORT TERM INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS MARGINALLY IMPROVED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO REACT TO THE STEERING EFFECTS OF THE 700 MB LEVEL. THE 700 MB STR WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM INITIALLY, THEN ORIENT ITSELF ZONALLY TO THE SOUTH, CONTRIBUTING TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK BEYOND TAU 24. THEREAFTER, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM ACCOUNTING FOR INCREASED FORECAST SPEEDS BEYOND TAU 36. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS MUCH THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ABATE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE UPPER LEVEL STR AXIS TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND CONTINUED LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL HINDER SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY GAINS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND 192100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20081019 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 10.3S 64.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 10.3S 64.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 11.3S 63.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 11.9S 61.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 12.2S 59.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 12.2S 57.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 190900Z POSITION NEAR 10.6S 64.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ONE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 840 NM NORTH- EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 01S CONTINUES TO TRACK INCREASINGLY WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A ZONALLY-ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT MICRO- WAVE IMAGERY, INCLUDING A 190216Z SSMI PASS, AND A 180600Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS REPORTED BY PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. TS 01S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS MOTION WILL TAKE THE SYSTEM INTO AN AREA OF DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR THE AXIS OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THE DECREASE IN SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 12, BUT PASSAGE OVER DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED EASTERLY SHEAR WILL PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20081019 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 11.2S 63.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 63.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 11.9S 61.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 12.1S 59.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 12.2S 57.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 12.2S 55.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 11.4S 62.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ONE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 745 NM NORTH- EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 01S HAS BEGUN TO INTENSIFY IN RESPONSE TO DECREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM NEARS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH. DUAL EXHAUST MECHANISMS HAVE ALSO FACILITATED INTENSIFICATION, THOUGH LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT HAS CURTAILED AGGRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION. CURRENT INTENSITY IS THE AVERAGE OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY AND A 1514Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT SPIRAL BANDING, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CIRRUS-OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE FORECAST TRACK PRESCRIBES AN INCREASED WESTWARD TRACK AND SPEED AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM. THE STORM WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS SHEAR CONTINUES TO RELAX. AGAIN, LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z AND 202100Z. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20081020 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ASMA) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 12.5S 61.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 61.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 12.8S 60.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 12.9S 58.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 13.0S 55.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 13.2S 53.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 200900Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 61.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ASMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM NORTH- EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AFTER MOVING INTO A REGION OF DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVOR- ABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW NEAR THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SEVERAL RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES, INCLUDING A 200202Z SSMI PASS, INDICATE THAT A LOW LEVEL EYE HAS DEVELOPED DESPITE A LOSS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). BASED ON THE CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 3.5 FROM KNES AND 3.0 FROM BOTH PGTW AND FMEE, THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET AT 55 KNOTS. TC 01S WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF LOW TO MID- LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW TC 01S TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALTHOUGH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE ACROSS COOLER WATER WILL LIKELY LIMIT THIS INTENSIFICATION TO A SLOW RATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND 210900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20081020 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ASMA) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201800Z --- NEAR 12.3S 61.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 61.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 12.3S 59.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 12.6S 57.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 12.9S 54.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 13.7S 52.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 202100Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 60.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ASMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS IT HAS TRACKED INTO AN AREA OF MARGINAL SST AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 01S WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 WITH A MORE POLE- WARD TURN AROUND TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF LOW TO MID- LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW TC 01S TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH23 TAU 36 WITH INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SST CAUSING A WEAKENING TREND BEYOND TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND 212100Z. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20081021 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ASMA) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z --- NEAR 12.2S 59.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S 59.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 12.3S 57.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 12.6S 54.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 210900Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 58.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ASMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 575 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WHILE TRACKING OVER AN AREA OF MARGINAL SST AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. RECENT ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY AND A 210352 SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) MOVING WEST OF THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WHICH IS QUICKLY WANING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED UPON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS FROM FMEE, KNES AND PGTW AND A RECENT QSCAT PASS SHOWING 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE LLCC. TC 01S WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF LOW TO MID- LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SST AND ULTIMATELY DIS- SIPATE OVER WATER NEAR TAU 24. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 13 FEET.
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_asma_jtwc_advisories.htm
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