Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone BILLY : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2008-2009 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone BILLY Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20081218 08:30z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A
070 NM RADIUS OF 14.2S 128.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO
30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 180530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 128.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-
EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0S
127.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 128.5E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM SOUTH-
WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS BEGINNING TO
HAVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TOWARDS THE CENTER, WHICH IS
ALSO APPARENT IN ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN REGION
OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
SUPPORT AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CURRENT LIMITING
FACTOR IS THE SYSTEMS PROXIMITY TO LAND, CURRENTLY BETWEEN 30 TO
60 NM FROM LANDFALL. AT CURRENT TRACK AND SPEED LANDFALL COULD
OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 10 TO 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 190830Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20081218 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 14.5S 128.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 128.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 14.7S 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.0S 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.4S 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 128.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BILLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE, WITH DEEP CONVECTION
PERSISTING AND A SLOWING OF THE TRACK SPEED AS IT HAS STARTED TO
TURN SOUTHWARD. THE MOST RECENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAD THE SYSTEM
AT A MINIMUM OF 30 KNOTS, ALONG WITH COASTAL OBSERVATIONS NEAR TC
05S, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN CONTINUING TO INCREASE OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD CHANNELS, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE GOOD IN THE VICINITY OF TC 05S HELPING TO INTENSIFY
THE SYSTEM. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR IS THE PROXIMITY TO LAND. THE
FORECAST HAS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKING TO THE SOUTH AS IT SHIFTS
ITS TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH IS IDENTIFIABLE IN RADAR IMAGERY.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN 24 HOURS, LIMITING
INTENSIFICATION, AND WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 180830Z DEC
08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 180830) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190300Z AND 191500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CINDA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20081219 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 14.7S 128.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 128.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 14.9S 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.1S 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.3S 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 128.6E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z AND 200300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CINDA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20081219 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 14.7S 128.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 128.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 14.8S 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.0S 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 15.1S 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 128.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BILLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
ALONG WITH RADAR DATA INDICATES THAT TC 05S HAS STARTED TO PICK UP A
WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE THAT IS BEGINNING TO TRACK IT WESTWARD. DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). TC 05S IS CURRENTLY LOCATED BELOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
WHICH HAS CONTINUED TO PROVIDE GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LLCC IS LOCATED OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BUT IS LOCATED WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND. THESE
ISSUES WITH HELP TO OFFSET INCREASED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS AND UPON LANDFALL INTENSITY WILL BEGIN TO SUFFER LEADING TO A
DISSIPATION AROUND TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
191200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND 201500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CINDA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20081220 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 15.1S 127.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 127.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.5S 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.0S 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.4S 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.0S 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 18.7S 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 127.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BILLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS FOR
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
WEATHER RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM WYNDHAM, AUSTRALIA INDICATE TC
05S HAS MADE LANDFALL AND CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
UNDER A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE AND HAS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AS
EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. INTERACTION WITH THE
LANDMASS WILL WEAKEN TC 05S OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, BUT IT WILL THEN
REDEVELOP AS IT EMERGES BACK OVER WATER AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT OVER THE GULF OF JOSEPH BONAPARTE AT 200000Z
IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z AND 210300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 04S (CINDA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20081220 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 15.3S 127.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 127.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 15.5S 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.8S 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.3S 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 16.9S 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 18.3S 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 126.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BILLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY AND A WEATHER
RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM WYNDHAM, AUSTRALIA INDICATE TC 05S
REMAINS OVER LAND AND HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH LITTLE DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE STORM IS TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
ALTHOUGH THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC REMAINS BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL
MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE, INTERACTION WITH THE LANDMASS WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN TC 05S OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THIS TIME HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AS IT EMERGES BACK OVER WATER
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z AND
211500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CINDA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20081221 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 15.2S 125.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 125.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.3S 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 15.5S 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 16.0S 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 16.5S 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 17.3S 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 125.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BILLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEADLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT RADAR DATA FROM WYNDHAM,
AUSTRALIA, AND A 202135Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATE THAT TC 05S HAS
MAINTAINED GOOD LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENSION TO THE SOUTH. GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION ALONG THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE PERIPHERY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 05S WILL REEMERGE OVER VERY
WARM WATER AROUND TAU 12 AND MOVE BENEATH THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE, INTO A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG OUTFLOW
ENVIRONMENT. THESE FAVORABLE INFLUENCES WILL ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO
STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z AND
220300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CINDA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20081221 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 15.4S 125.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 125.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 15.6S 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 15.9S 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 16.3S 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 16.9S 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 17.7S 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 125.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BILLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT RADAR DATA
FROM WYNDHAM, AUSTRALIA, AND NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT TC 05S HAS MAINTAINED GOOD LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
TAKEN APPROXIMATELY 60 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STORM CENTER WHICH
DEPICT SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS RANGING FROM 17 TO 24 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE SOUTH.
GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION ALONG THE CURRENT
STEERING RIDGE PERIPHERY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TC 05S WILL REEMERGE OVER VERY WARM WATER NEAR TAU
12 AND MOVE BENEATH THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, INTO A
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT. THESE
FAVORABLE INFLUENCES WILL ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY
THROUGH TAU 72. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z AND 221500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CINDA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20081222 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 124.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 124.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 15.8S 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 16.2S 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 16.6S 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 16.9S 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.3S 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 124.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BILLY) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S HAS CROSSED THE KIMBERLY COAST INTO
THE INDIAN OCEAN NEAR KURI BAY. TC 05S CONTINUES TO TRACK GENERALLY
WESTWARD ON THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA, WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO GENERATE A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AUSTRALIA IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE
WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO RETREAT EASTWARD NEAR TAU
24, RESULTING IN A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW, DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND IN THE THE NEAR
TERM, AND INHIBITION DUE TO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA. AFTER TAU 48, INTENSIFICATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW
DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z AND 230300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20081222 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 16.3S 123.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 123.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 16.7S 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 17.3S 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 17.7S 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 17.7S 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.4S 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 123.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BILLY) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST CLOSER TO THE KIMBERLY COASTLINE. AS A RESULT, INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND APRF HAVE STEADIED AROUND A 35 TO 45 KNOT
SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE BROOME RADAR LOOP INDICATING THE TIGHTEST TURNING TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LEVEQUE, WITHIN CONE BAY. TO A LESSER DEGREE
INFRARED POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND APRF HAVE ALSO SUPPLEMENTED
IN POSITIONING OF THE CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF
THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY ORIENTED
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THIS ORIENTATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE
EAST TO WEST AFTER TAU 36 IN RESPONSE TO PREVAILING EAST TO SOUTH-
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THIS FLOW WILL FACILITATE
FURTHER SEPARATION DISTANCE FROM THE COAST ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO
MAKE SWIFT INTENSITY GAINS IN FAVORABLE SEAS AND UNDER CONDUCIVE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF
THE AVAILABLE MODEL AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z
IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z AND 231500Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20081223 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 17.3S 122.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 122.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 18.1S 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 18.0S 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 17.8S 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.2S 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.6S 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 121.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BILLY) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE TWELVE-HOUR TIME LAPSE ON ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WEATHER RADAR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY
LOOP FROM BROOME, AUSTRALIA SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) HAS DRIFTED ACROSS KING SOUND AND IS NOW OVER THE
NORTHERN TIP OF DAMPIER PENINSULA. IN ADDITION, SPIRAL BAND
CONVECTION AROUND THE LLCC THAT HAD DEEPENED OVER THE SOUND HAS
SLIGHTLY DECREASED AFTER INTERACTING WITH THE LAND MASS. THE
CURRENT CENTRAL WIND SPEED IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY FIXES FROM
PGTW AND APRF, AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVA-TIONS.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSES INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, AS EVIDENCED ON
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC 05S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A 700 MB RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD AND REORIENT ON A MORE WEST-TO-EAST AXIS AFTER TAU 36 CAUSING
THE SYSTEM TO VEER ON A WESTWARD DIRECTION. THIS FLOW WILL HASTEN THE
SEPARATION DISTANCE FROM THE COAST ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO MAKE
GRADUAL INTENSITY GAINS OVER WARM SEAS AND UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS. THE MAJORITY OF FORECAST MODEL AIDS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
230000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z AND 240300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20081223 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 17.7S 120.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 120.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 17.8S 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 17.8S 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.5S 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.0S 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 16.6S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 120.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BILLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM BROOME,
AUSTRALIA, AS WELL AS MICROWAVE AND GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE POSITION
ESTIMATES, INDICATE THAT TC 05S HAS BEGUN AN ANTICIPATED WESTWARD
TURN DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS NOW TRACKING WESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A VERTICALLY DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENSION TO THE SOUTH. FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED AS THE SYSTEM
NEARS A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE AND A SECOND
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST. BY TAU 24, THE SECOND RIDGE TO THE
WEST IS EXPECTED TO EXERT AN INCREASING INFLUENCE ON STORM MOTION,
CARRYING THE SYSTEM ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AWAY FROM THE
WESTERN AUSTRALIA COAST. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY ALL OF
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. FORWARD TRACK SPEEDS HAVE
BEEN DECREASED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THE CURRENT
SLOWDOWN AND THE ANTICIPATED CHANGE OF PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE.
TC 05S WILL INTENSIFY STEADILY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE STORM
MOVES UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AXIS INTO A REGION OF LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
AFTER TAU 36, STORM INTENSITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER SOMEWHAT COOLER WATER TAKE
THEIR TOLL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND 241500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20081224 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 17.9S 119.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 119.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 18.0S 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.6S 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.1S 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.6S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.4S 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 119.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BILLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS SHOWN ON LATEST RADAR IMAGE LOOP FROM
BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDI-
CATES THE STORM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AS A 6 NM DIAMETER PINHOLE
EYE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE LAST FEW HOURS. CURRENT MAX SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY FIXES FROM PGTW AND APRF. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH ALTHOUGH FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED DOWN DUE TO ITS
PROXIMITY TO A TROUGH OR WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY STEADILY UP TO TAU 24 AS IT MOVES OVER WARM WATER AND UNDER
WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 24,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS BY THE TROUGH AND DRIFT TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS AND REALIGNS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE WITH
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST. THE MAJORITY OF MODEL
GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS FORECAST SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z AND 250300Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20081224 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 17.8S 118.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 118.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.6S 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.1S 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.7S 114.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 16.5S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.5S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 118.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BILLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
360 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE TC
HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, WITH THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE INTENSITY
FIXES FROM PGTW AND APRF. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH
TAU 12 AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER WARM WATER AND
REMAINS IN AN AREA OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER
THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE
ENVIRONMENT SLOWLY BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE WITH IN-
CREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST SCENARIO. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 250300Z AND 251500Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20081225 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 17.5S 117.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 117.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.1S 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.8S 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 16.5S 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.5S 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 16.9S 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 117.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BILLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. INTENSITY HAS SEEN A CYCLIC
WEAKENING WITH BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THAT THE EYE FEATURE HAS SHIFTED
FROM A RAGGED EYE TO A CLOUD FILLED EYE AND BACK TO A RAGGED SMALL
EYE. DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE,
AND THE CYCLIC SHIFTS OBSERVED IN THE STRUCTURE OF TC 05S FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
FROM THE POLEWARD CHANNEL HAS ALLOWED TC 05S TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, HOWEVER AS TC 05S TRACKS INTO A
REGION OF UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE OUTFLOW WILL BE DIMINISHED. THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK
TOWARDS LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTS WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 05S CONTINUES TO
BE STEERED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGING SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT TRACK
THROUGH TAU 36, BUT SHOWS LARGER VARIABILITY IN THE POLEWARD TURN
BEYOND TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z AND 260300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20081225 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 17.0S 115.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 115.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.6S 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 16.3S 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.2S 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.3S 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 16.6S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 115.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BILLY) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS FROM A MAXIMUM INTENSITY NEAR 105 KNOTS TO THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 95 KNOTS, BASED UPON A RANGE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM 4.5 (PGTW) TO 6.0 (KNES). THE EYE FEATURE EVIDENT IN
ANIMATED INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS NOW BECOME
CLOUD FILLED, INDICATING SOME WEAKENING HAS OCCURRED; HOWEVER, TC
05S HAS UNDERGONE CYCLIC STRENGTHENING AND WEAKENING EPISODES OVER
THE PAST 36 HOURS, SO SLIGHT NEAR TERM INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE.
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON AN EXTENSION
OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE TRACK WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY NEAR TAU 24 AS TROUGHING APPROACHES THE WESTERN COAST OF
AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO A WESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 36 AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS. INTENSITY
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 12 AS THE APPROACHING TROUGH INCREASES
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND THE CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK BRINGS THE
SYSTEM OVER LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260300Z AND 261500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20081226 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 16.2S 114.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 114.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.6S 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 15.4S 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.5S 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 16.0S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 114.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BILLY) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM NORTH
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REC-
ENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO WEAK-
EN WITH DECAY OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND 12-HOUR MOTION
BASED ON A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN 36/37
GHZ IMAGERY, PARTICULARLY A 26/0002Z SSMIS IMAGE WHICH SHOWS TIGHTLY
CURVED BANDING (TCB) WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON THE HIGH SIDE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 90
KNOTS DUE TO THE TCB AND WELL-DEFINED NATURE OF THE LLCC. TC 05S IS
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 24-36, THE STR IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WILL
TRACK ON A MORE WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND SST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z AND
270300Z.//
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 017
WTXS32 PGTW 20081226 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 15.3S 113.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 113.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 15.0S 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.1S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 15.4S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 16.1S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 113.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BILLY) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM NORTH
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHTENED VERTICAL WINDS SHEAR,
MARGINALLY SUSTAINABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LESS THAN
OPTIMAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE INITIAL FORECAST INTENSITY REFLECTS
A STEADY WEAKENING WITHIN THE CONFINES OF SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, APRF, AND KNES RANGING FROM 55 TO 77 KNOTS,
WHILE THE CURRENT POSITION RELIES HEAVILY ON A 261238Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE. THE
STEERING RIDGE WILL THEN REORIENT AS THE RIDGE CENTER MOVES EASTWARD
TOWARDS PERTH, AUSTRALIA, FORCING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK MORE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTWARD BEYOND 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 2 DAYS DUE TO MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND POOR OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, IN ADDITION TO A SLIGHTLY MORE
STABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO
THE SOUTHWEST.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z AND 271500Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20081227 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 15.2S 113.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 113.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.0S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 15.1S 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 15.6S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 16.2S 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 17.6S 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 113.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BILLY) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM NORTH
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS AS IT TRACKS INTO MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
DIMINISHING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), IN AN ALREADY MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT, HAVE HELPED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS FROM OVER THE EASTERN
INDIAN OCEAN TO MOSTLY OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA, THE TRACK WILL TURN
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN TO SPEED UP. TC 05S WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT PROGRESSES INTO STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND COOLER SST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z AND 280300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20081227 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 15.2S 113.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 113.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 15.3S 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 15.6S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 16.0S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 16.6S 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 112.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BILLY) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM NORTH
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S CONTINUES TO STEADILY WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLU-
ENCE OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
INDUCING A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR AND PASSAGE ACROSS OCEAN WATER WITH
MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE THE WEAKENING TREND
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 272100Z AND 280900Z.//
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 020
WTXS32 PGTW 20081227 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 15.0S 112.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 112.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 14.8S 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 14.6S 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 112.7E.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONI-
TORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 12 FEET.
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_billy_jtwc_advisories.htm
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