Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone DOMINIC : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2008-2009 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone DOMINIC Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20090125 03:30z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 095 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.5S 119.1E TO 19.9S 114.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 242330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.6S 118.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 114.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.6S 118.8E, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND A DEVELOPING POLAR OUTFLOW CHANNEL OFF-SHORE OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. A RECENT WEATHER RADAR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM PORT HEDLAND INDICATES A WELL FORMED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHT CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 260330Z. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20090125 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251200Z --- NEAR 19.3S 117.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 117.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 19.6S 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 20.0S 114.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 20.2S 113.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 20.8S 112.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 21.0S 114.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 251500Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 116.6E. TC 10S (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA HAS MOVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST O6 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW OVER CONVECTIVE BANDS THAT HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RADAR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM DAMPIER, AUSTRALIA DEPICTS A DISCERNIBLE LLCC SURROUNDED BY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINBANDS. CURRENT CENTRAL WIND SPEED IS BASED FROM SATEL- LITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW ANS APRF AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY ANIMATIONS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALY- SIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVE- LOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRETCHED ALONG SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA. BY TAU 48, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST CAUSING TC 10S TO RETROGRADE AND REVERSE ITS MOTION TOWARDS THE EAST. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 250321Z JAN 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 250330) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20090125 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251800Z --- NEAR 18.8S 116.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 116.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 19.1S 115.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 19.5S 114.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 19.9S 114.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 20.1S 114.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 20.2S 115.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 252100Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 116.0E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z AND 262100Z. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20090126 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260000Z --- NEAR 19.5S 116.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 116.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 19.9S 115.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 20.3S 115.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 20.8S 115.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 21.3S 116.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 22.4S 117.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 260300Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 116.0E. TC 10S (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA HAS MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST O6 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HEALTHY EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE RADAR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM DAMPIER, AUSTRALIA DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE SOUTH. A 252237Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. CURRENT CENTRAL WIND SPEED IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND APRF, OBSERVATIONS FROM BARROW ISLAND AND A 252240Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE. POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPURATURES. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA IT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AFFECTED BY FRICTION AND WILL ENTRAIN DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTH. AT TAU 24 AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO SLOW AND TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA. BY TAU 48 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER LAND AND DISSIPATING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20090126 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DOMINIC) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DOMINIC) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260600Z --- NEAR 20.2S 115.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 115.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 20.8S 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 21.1S 115.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 21.4S 116.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 21.9S 117.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 260900Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 115.5E. TC 10S (DOMINIC), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA HAS MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST O6 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH GOOD DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. WEATHER RADAR LOOP FROM DAMPIER, AUSTRALIA DEPICTS A DISCERNIBLE LLCC WITH MODERATE REFLECTIVITY VALUES IN A SEMI-CIRCULAR BAND ALONG ITS SOUTHERN BOUNDARY. CURRENT CENTRAL WIND SPEED IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND APRF, AND ALSO FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NEARBY REPORTING STATIONS. POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY LOOP AND A 252237Z SSMI-S PASS SHOWING A BULLS-EYE CENTER. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPURATURES. TC 10A IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER, AT TAU 24, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO SLOW THEN RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS LAND AND DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20090126 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DOMINIC) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DOMINIC) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 261200Z --- NEAR 20.7S 115.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 115.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 21.6S 115.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 22.5S 115.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 261500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 115.2E. TC 10S (DOMINIC), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM NORTHEAST OF LEAR- MONTH, AUSTRALIA HAS MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST O6 HOURS. WEATHER RADAR LOOP FROM DAMPIER, AUSTRALIA SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS SLOWED DOWN AND CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAP- PING INTO IT HAVE TIGHTENED SLIGHTLY. CURRENT CENTRAL WIND SPEED IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND APRF, AND ALSO FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NEARBY REPORTING STATIONS. POSI- TION IS BASED ON ANIMATED RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 261046Z SSMI-S PASS SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPURATURES. TC 10S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER, AT TAU 12, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO SLOW FURTHER THEN RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS LAND AND DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20090126 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DOMINIC) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DOMINIC) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 261800Z --- NEAR 21.3S 115.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 115.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 22.2S 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 23.1S 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 262100Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 115.2E. TC 10S (DOMINIC), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTHEAST OF LEAR- MONTH, AUSTRALIA HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED OFF THE LEARMONTH RADAR AND INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 50-KNOT OBSERVATION FROM THEVENARD ISLAND. TC 10S HAS TURNED SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL AROUND TAU 06, AND THEN WEAKEN OVER LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z AND 270900Z. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20090127 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DOMINIC) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DOMINIC) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270000Z --- NEAR 21.9S 115.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 115.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 23.1S 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 24.6S 116.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 270300Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 115.4E. TC 10S (DOMINIC), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 72 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEAR- MONTH, AUSTRALIA HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE STORM HAD AN INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS WHEN IT MADE LANDFALL. TC 10S WILL WEAKEN BELOW 35 KNOTS BY TAU 24. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONI- TORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 12 FEET.
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_dominic_jtwc_advisories.htm
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