Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone DONGO : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2008-2009 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone DONGO Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20090108 15:00z SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2S 70.9E TO 19.1S 67.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 081400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 70.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 69.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 70.2E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 081226Z SSMIS IMAGE CONTINUE TO DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A DEFINED LLCC AND MULTIPLE BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. PREVIOUS SHIP REPORTS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SUPPORT A 25-30 KNOT SYSTEM WITH SLP NEAR 1002 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY HINDERED BY MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM SST AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO LOWER VWS WITHIN 12-24 HOURS AND SHOULD ALSO TAP INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW TO ITS SOUTH, RESULTING IN IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN TO 35 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, TIGHT BANDING, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND EXPECTED TRACK INTO AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 091500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20090109 15:00z SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DONGO) WARNING NR 001 REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081451Z JAN 09// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DONGO) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z --- NEAR 17.3S 67.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 67.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 18.6S 67.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 19.5S 67.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 20.6S 68.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 22.4S 68.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 091500Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 67.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (DONGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 655 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT OBSCURING WELL-DEFINED AND TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES. A 09/0844Z PARTIAL AMSR-E IMAGE AND A 09/0856Z AMSU IMAGE BOTH REFLECT THE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND BETTER DEFINED LLCC. A 09/0505Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH MULTIPLE 30-KNOT WIND VECTORS. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS QUICKLY IMPROVED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD WITH DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ON THE LOW END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30-35 KNOTS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT WINDS, HOWEVER, TC 06S SHOULD INTENSIFY TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 06-12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED LOW-TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WEST OF THE SYSTEM. INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A 10-15 KNOT PER DAY INTENSIFICATION RATE UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 081451Z JAN 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20090110 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DONGO) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DONGO) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 17.7S 67.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 67.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 18.7S 66.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 19.8S 67.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 21.6S 67.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 23.9S 68.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 100300Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 67.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (DONGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC PARTIALLY OBSCURING WELL-DEFINED AND TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES. A 09/2222Z TRMM IMAGE REFLECTS THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND WELL DEFINED LLCC. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD WITH DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 35-40 KNOTS BASED ON A 09/1328 WINDSAT PASS SHOWING NUMEROUS 35-40 KNOT UNFLAGGED WIND VECTORS AND AN INCREASED RATE OF DEVELOPMENT AS SEEN IN DVORAK FIXES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DRIFTS TO THE EAST 06S WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A 10-15 KNOT PER DAY INTENSIFICATION RATE UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20090110 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DONGO) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DONGO) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 19.2S 67.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 67.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 21.0S 67.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 22.7S 68.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 24.7S 69.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 27.0S 69.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 101500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 67.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (DONGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 665 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH VERY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE CURRENT CENTRAL WIND SPEED IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY FIXES FROM FMEE AND PGTW. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 100926Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS WITH HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MIDLEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 24, TC 06S WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WHEN IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS IT APPROACHES THE SUBTRO- PICAL JET STREAM. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN BE STEERED EASTWARD AND TRACK SPEED WILL INCREASE. THE MAJORITY OF INTENSITY AND TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z AND 111500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20090111 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DONGO) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DONGO) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z --- NEAR 20.3S 68.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 68.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 22.5S 69.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 25.2S 69.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 27.8S 69.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 30.2S 70.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 110300Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 68.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (DONGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 720 NM EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WELL FORMED CONVECTIVE FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH VERY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT CENTRAL WIND SPEED IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY FIXES FROM FMEE AND PGTW. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 102350Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MIDLEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER TAU 12, TC 06S WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WHEN IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS IT APPROACHES THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z AND 120300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20090111 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DONGO) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DONGO) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z --- NEAR 23.2S 69.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.2S 69.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 26.3S 69.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 29.4S 70.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 32.1S 72.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 111500Z POSITION NEAR 24.0S 69.6E. LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 770 NM EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED 12-HOUR WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP DEPICTS SHRINKING CONVECTIVE FEEDER BANDS WITH WARMING TOPS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH TRANSVERSE BANDS ON THE WESTERN FLANK INDICATING INTRUSION OF VERY STRONG WINDS. THE CURRENT CENTRAL WIND SPEED IS BASED ON SATEL- LITE INTENSITY FIXES FROM FMEE AND PGTW. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. TC 07S HAS SIGNIFICANTLY SPED UP IN ITS FORWARD MOTION AND BEGUN TO DETERIORATE WITH THE INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT AS IT APPROACHES THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MIDLEVEL RIDGE, RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z AND 121500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20090112 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DONGO) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DONGO) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z --- NEAR 26.9S 70.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL REPEAT POSIT: 26.9S 70.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 29.6S 70.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 31.8S 71.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 120300Z POSITION NEAR 27.6S 70.2E. LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 860 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, TC 06S HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED 12-HOUR WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS REDUCED CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 112211Z TRMM IMAGE SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF CENTRAL CONVECTION SHEARED EASTWARD OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT CENTRAL WIND SPEED IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY FIXES FROM FMEE AND PGTW AND A 111652Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON POLAR ORBITER MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 06S IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND HAS INCREASED IN SPEED AND HAS BEGUN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MIDLEVEL RIDGE, RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 121500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20090112 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DONGO) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DONGO) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR 28.9S 70.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL REPEAT POSIT: 28.9S 70.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 30.9S 71.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 121500Z POSITION NEAR 29.4S 70.6E. LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 905 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, TC 06S HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED 12-HOUR WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE REMNANT CONVECTION HAS MOSTLY DETACHED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND DRIFTED TO THE EAST WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM. THE LLCC IS NOW ABSORBED IN THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IS RAPIDLY GETTING DEFORMED. TC 06S HAS BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 13 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_dongo_jtwc_advisories.htm
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