WTPS31 PGTW 20090131 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (ELLIE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (ELLIE) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   311800Z --- NEAR 16.7S 147.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 147.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z --- 17.2S 147.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z --- 17.7S 146.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z --- 18.3S 146.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z --- 18.6S 146.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 147.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (ELLIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA HAS SLOWLY TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 311541Z AMSR-E IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) SHEARED ABOUT 20 NM EAST OF A
LARGE, INTENSE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE
LLCC HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION AND HAS STRENGTHENED.
OBSERVATIONS FROM HOLMES REEF INDICATE SUSTAINED (10-MINUTE AVERAGE)
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 35-40 KNOTS WITH SLP OF 994MB WITH 24-HOUR SLP
FALLS OF 4MB. EARLIER OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A MINIMUM SLP OF 990MB
AS THE CENTER PASSED WITHIN 30NM OF HOLMES REEF. THIS WARNING WAS
ISSUED BASED PRIMARILY ON THESE OBSERVATIONS DESPITE LOW DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS FROM KNES/PGTW (ABRF IS AT 45 KNOTS). EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND OBSERVATIONS FROM GREEN ISLAND HAD INDICATED
GALE FORCE WINDS, ENHANCED BY BOTH THE GRADIENT AND TOPOGRAPHY,
ALONG THE SOUTH AND WEST QUADRANTS...THESE WINDS HAVE NOW WRAPPED
INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING WSW UNDER THE
COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES OF LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW NORTH AND
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA, AND IS, THEREFORE,
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A SLOW TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTH-
WESTWARD UNDER THE DOMINANT STERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE HINDERING
DEVELOPMENT AND TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BETWEEN TAU 36 AND
48 SOUTH OF CAIRNS. THE REMNANTS WILL LIKELY TRACK BACK EASTWARD
BACK OVER WATER AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010900Z AND 012100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20090201 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (ELLIE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (ELLIE) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   010600Z --- NEAR 17.5S 146.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 146.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z --- 18.0S 146.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z --- 18.5S 146.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z --- 19.0S 145.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 146.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (ELLIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA HAS SLOWLY TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY AND A 010353Z
AMSR-E IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) LOCATED 30 NM EAST OF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS, THE DEEP CONVECTION AND HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY,
INDICATING THAT THE STORM IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. THIS IS CONFIRMED
BY NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND A 312135Z WINDSAT IMAGE
INDICATING WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS ALONG WITH DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK
SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES OF LOW-
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY MORE DOMINANT EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE STORM ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA. MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE HINDERING DEVELOPMENT AND TC 12P
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36 AFTER MAKING LANDFALL
SOUTH OF CAIRNS. THE REMNANTS WILL LIKELY TRACK BACK EASTWARD BACK
OVER WATER AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z AND 020900Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20090201 21:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (ELLIE) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (ELLIE) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011800Z --- NEAR 18.3S 145.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 145.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z --- 18.1S 145.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z --- 18.0S 145.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 17.9S 146.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 17.9S 146.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 145.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (ELLIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM SOUTH
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE TOWNSVILLE
AND CAIRNS RADARS INDICATE THAT TC 12P MADE LANDFALL SOUTH OF CAIRNS
AT APPROXIMATELY 01/14Z AND HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AND TRACKED FURTHER
INLAND OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS
CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE WITH BANDING REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND STRONG INFLOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK.
THE MAJORITY OF THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS, HOWEVER, COASTAL OBSERVATIONS FROM LUCINDA,
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER, REMAIN STRONGER AT 30-35 KNOTS SUSTAINED.
TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 12 BUT SHOULD WEAKEN WITH THE REMNANTS LIKELY TO TRACK BACK OVER
WATER IN A GENERAL EASTWARD DIRECTION. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE SYSTEM MAY REGENERATE AFTER 24-36 HOURS WITH BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATING 35 KNOT WINDS AFTER TAU 48. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z
IS 10 FEET.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_ellie_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]