Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone FREDDY : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2008-2009 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone FREDDY Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20090206 01:30z SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.4S 115.0E TO 16.1S 110.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 060100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 114.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 116.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 114.2E, APPROXIMATELY 355 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION DESPITE MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A 052257Z SSMI 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONV- ECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE LLCC IS LOCATED WITHIN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SST, AND DEEP MOISTURE. THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 070130Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20090206 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 113.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 113.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 15.9S 111.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 15.9S 110.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 16.0S 109.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 16.2S 107.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 061500Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 112.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION DESPITE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH A 061212Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS AN IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE LLCC IS LOCATED WITHIN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SST, AND DEEP MOISTURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON MULTI- AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND A 060957Z QSCAT PASS DEPICTING UNFLAGGED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AND WILL INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE COMPETING INFLUENCES OF DETRIMENTAL SHEAR AND OTHERWISE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE CONSENSUS OF DYNAMIC AIDS WHICH ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 060121Z FEB 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 060130). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND 071500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNINGS ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20090207 03:00z COR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 002A CORRECTED 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070000Z --- NEAR 16.2S 112.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 112.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 16.2S 111.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 16.3S 110.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 16.6S 108.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 17.2S 105.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 070300Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 112.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CONVECTION AROUND AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED A MARGINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND APRF RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST TO WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING VERY LITTLE DUE TO SUSTAINED MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z AND 080300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: UPDATED MANOP HEADER (WTXS32).// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20090207 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 071200Z --- NEAR 16.2S 112.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 112.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 16.3S 110.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 16.6S 108.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 17.0S 106.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 17.4S 104.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 071500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 111.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS DISPLACING THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 14S TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). REANALYSIS OF MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY NECESSITATED AN SLIGHT EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE 00Z POSITION REPORTED IN THE PREVIOUS WARNING, INDICATING A SLOWER FORWARD TRACK SPEED. HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE HAS SINCE BEGUN ACCELERATING WESTWARD, CONSISTENT WITH PRIOR FORECAST REASONING. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. THE CYCLONE WILL INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSETS THE FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND STRONG WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, WHICH SHOWS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ALL MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z AND 081500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 004 WTXS32 PGTW 20090207 21:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z --- NEAR 16.0S 111.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 111.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 16.2S 109.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 16.6S 107.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 17.2S 105.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 17.9S 103.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 072100Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 110.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MANAGED TO INTENSIFY DESPITE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH ALL REPORTING FIX AGENCIES LOGGING A FINAL-T OF 3.0 OR 45 KNOTS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS OBSCURED BENEATH A DENSE CIRRUS CANOPY MAKING INITIAL POSITIONING DIFFICULT. HOWEVER, 6-HOUR PERSISTENCE, POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND APRF, AND A 071414Z AMSUB MICROWAVE IMAGE SUGGEST WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF CERTAINTY THAT THE LLCC IS BENEATH THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE SHEARED CONVECTION. FREDDY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS IN FAVORABLE WATERS AND UNDER INCREASED POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, THOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL DAMPEN SUBSTANTIAL INTENSIFICATION. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE, IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS THRESHOLD AROUND TAU 36, AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO SLACKEN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20090208 09:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 109.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 109.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 16.7S 107.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 17.4S 105.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 18.1S 103.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 18.8S 101.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 080900Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 108.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED STEADILY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AIDED BY PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND STRONG WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE. THIS INTENSIFICATION HAS OCCURRED DESPITE PERSISTENT, MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INDUCED BY THE PERIPHERAL FLOW AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE CYCLONE. TS 14S IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INDUCED BY A DEVELOPING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATER ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN TC 14S AFTER TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z AND 090900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20090208 21:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 081800Z --- NEAR 16.7S 107.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 107.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 17.4S 105.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 18.2S 103.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 19.0S 101.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 19.7S 99.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 082100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 107.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON SATELLITE INTERROGATION AND DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES FROM PGTW AND APRF BOTH REPORTING A 45 KNOT SYSTEM. TC FREDDY HAS WEAKENED DUE TO FALLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SUSTAINED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD EASE TEMPORARILY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM NEARS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH, BUT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL REINVIGORATE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIOD. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW SUSTAINABLE LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD, AS WELL, INITIATING A PRONOUNCED DISSIPATION TREND. ALL THE WHILE TC FREDDY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK AT NEAR 10 KNOTS TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, INDUCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20090209 09:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 18.2S 105.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 105.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 19.3S 103.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 20.1S 101.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 20.8S 98.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 105.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 14S IS TRACKING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE INDUCED BY A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTHWEST. GENERALLY WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER ARE WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLY HIGH AS ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THEREFORE, THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE 35 KNOT WARNING THRESHOLD BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20090209 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH IO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 19.3S 103.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 103.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 20.2S 101.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 20.5S 98.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 102.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 615 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS LOST A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WHICH HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED. CURRENT CENTRAL WIND SPEED IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND FROM A 091019Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 091512Z AMSU PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 14S REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERA-TURES. THESE FACTORS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THE CYCLONE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 13 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_freddy_jtwc_advisories.htm
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