Updated: 17 June 2020
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WTXS21 PGTW 20090317 22:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4S 115.5E TO 14.4S 110.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 171730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.5S 115.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 13.5S 115.0E, APPROXIMATELY
525 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND INTO THE CENTER OF A WELL-
DEFINED CIRCULATION. A 171405Z AMSU-B IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTH AND INTO A WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). POCKETS OF DEEP
CONVECTION ARE ALSO EVIDENT AROUND THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO
32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB.
BECAUSE THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS LOWER VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WHILE CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
182000Z.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED POSITION IN PARA 2.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20090318 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 13.7S 113.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 113.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.3S 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 14.8S 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.0S 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 14.9S 103.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 112.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION FORMING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS AND
IN THE CENTER OF A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. ANIMATED WATER-VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IN
THE LAST FEW HOURS. A 172252Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWS WELL-DEFINED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTH AND INTO A WELL DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IT WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE AND WILL BE IN AN AREA OF MORE
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 171951Z MAR 09 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 172000) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 8 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z AND 19300Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20090318 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (ILSA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (ILSA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 13.6S 110.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 110.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 13.9S 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 14.5S 106.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.0S 104.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.4S 103.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 110.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (ILSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES A
RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF TC 22S OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE OVERALL
STRUCTURE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS IMPROVED
OVER THE 12 HOURS. AN 181212Z SSMIS PASS REFLECTS DEEP BANDING
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED AND INCREASED OVER THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INIDICATES THAT TC 22S IS LOCATED ALONG THE EQUATORWARD
SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PROVIDING
STRONG DIVEGENT FLOW, WITH A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP. TC 22S IS LOCATED IN IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE WEST IT WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE AND WILL BE
IN AN AREA OF MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z AND 191500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20090319 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (ILSA) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (ILSA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 15.3S 108.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 108.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.0S 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.3S 105.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 16.5S 103.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.6S 102.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 108.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (ILSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 720 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER HAS FURTHER DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED, CURRENT CENTRAL
WIND SPEED IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSIY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW,
KNES, AND APRF. UPPER LEVEL ANAYLYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS
TRACKED CLOSER TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND CONSEQUENTLY,
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS WEAKENED, CONTRIBUTING TO THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 22S WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTRO-
PICAL RIDGE AND FURTHER INTENSIFY UP TO TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36,
THE SYSTEM WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN WITH INCREASED VWS AS THE RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH BUILDS. THE MAJORITY OF NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THIS OUTLOOK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
190000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z AND 200300Z.//NNN
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20090319 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (ILSA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 16.3S 106.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 106.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.9S 105.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.2S 103.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.5S 102.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 17.8S 100.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 106.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (ILSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 625 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 22S HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND APRF AND ASSOCIATED T-
NUMBER VALUES OF 5.5 FROM BOTH REPORTING AGENCIES. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENSION. GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE
WILL ENCOUNTER DECREASING ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AFTER TAU 12, WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN SLOW WEAKENING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
191200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND 201500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20090320 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (ILSA) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (ILSA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 16.5S 104.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 104.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 16.7S 103.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.0S 101.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 17.4S 100.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.8S 99.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 104.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (ILSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED AS
CONVECTIVE BANDS THAT ARE WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER CONSOLIDATED AND DEEPENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ALSO EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
UNDER AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS ) ALONG THE NORTHWES-
TERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION. THE CURRENT POSITION
AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE FIXES FROM
PGTW AND APRF WITH T-NUMBER VALUES AT 5.5 AND 5.0, RESPECTIVELY.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE. TC 22S WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS VWS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AND ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP TO BELOW 26
DEGREES CELSIUS. THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 200000Z WAS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z AND 210300Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20090320 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (ILSA) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (ILSA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 103.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 103.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.1S 102.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.3S 100.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.6S 99.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 16.9S 97.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 103.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (ILSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION ESTIMATE IS BASED ON SATELLITE
FIXES FROM PGTW AND APRF AND A 201116Z WINDSAT PASS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 85 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF
4.5 FROM PGTW AND 5.0 FROM APRF. TC 22S HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A
LOSS OF THE CLEAR EYE FEATURE PREVIOUSLY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS ACCOMPANIED THIS WEAKENING. THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING WESTWARD AND SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A CONTINUOUS, ZONALLY-ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED EQUATORWARD BASED ON CURRENT
STORM MOTION AND ANALYSIS OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. GENERALLY
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY STEERING
INFLUENCE. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING ALONG-TRACK
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DRIVE STEADY WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210300Z AND 211500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20090321 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (ILSA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (ILSA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 102.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 102.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.2S 100.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.7S 98.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.0S 96.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 17.3S 94.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 101.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S
(ILSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT
POSITION AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON SATELLITE DVORAK FIXES
FROM PGTW AND APRF. TC 22S HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. A 210039Z SSMI-S IMAGE SHOWS A BROKEN RING OF DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPED TIGHTLY AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING WESTWARD AND SLIGHTLY
EQUATORWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A CONTINUOUS, ZONALLY-
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY STEERING
INFLUENCE. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING ALONG-TRACK
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DRIVE STEADY WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z AND 220300Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20090321 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (ILSA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (ILSA) WARNING NR 08
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 100.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 100.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.1S 98.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 16.2S 96.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 16.4S 94.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 16.7S 91.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 99.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (ILSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON
SATELLITE DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND APRF. TC 22S HAS WEAKENED SLOWLY
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 211041Z SSMI-S IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE
BROKEN RING OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERSIST, AND DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
IT IS EXPECTED TO ISOLATE THE INNER CORE OF WARMER, MOISTER AIR AND
LEAD TO DEGRADATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE AFTER TAU 24. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING WESTWARD AND SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A CONTINUOUS, ZONALLY-ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH. GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS
THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
DRIVE STEADY WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z AND
221500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20090322 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (ILSA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (ILSA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 16.1S 99.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 99.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 16.2S 97.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 16.4S 95.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 16.6S 92.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 17.1S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 99.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (ILSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON
SATELLITE DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND APRF. TC 22S HAS MAINTAINED
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 220027Z SSMI-S IMAGE INDICATES A
BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND DRY AIR ENCIRCLING THE SYSTEM. WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IT IS EXPECTED TO ISOLATE THE INNER CORE OF
WARMER, MOISTER AIR AND LEAD TO DEGRADATION OF THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BOTH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 12. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
WESTWARD AND SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
CONTINUOUS, ZONALLY-ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH.
GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF TH STR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z AND 230300Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20090322 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (ILSA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (ILSA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 17.2S 97.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 97.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 17.8S 94.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 18.3S 92.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 18.9S 89.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 19.6S 87.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 96.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (ILSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTH
OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS TC 22S HAS DROPPED IN
INTENSITY AS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE
CIRCULATION AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT
HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZATION BUT WITH DIMINISHED CONVECTION OVER THE
LAST 6 HOURS. A 221628Z TRMM IMAGE SHOWS A CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM TO THE
NORTH OF THE LLCC WITH DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE CORE CIRCULATION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT ILSA IS LOCATED NEAR AN UPPER
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF GOOD
DIFFLUENT FLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ILSA IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO RE-
ORIENT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS TRACKED THROUGH THE MID-LATITUDES
SOUTH OF TC 22S. INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF UNFAVORABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND 232100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20090323 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (ILSA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (ILSA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 17.5S 94.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 94.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 18.0S 91.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 18.8S 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 19.7S 87.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 20.6S 84.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 93.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (ILSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS TC 22S HAS CONTINUED
TO WEAKEN WITH SIGNIFICANT DECREASES IN CONVECTION. ELONGATION OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS APPARENT IN ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL IMAGERY. A 230313Z AMSU-B PASS SHOWS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE LLCC WITH LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION PRESENT.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT ILSA IS LOCATED NEAR AN UPPER
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF GOOD DIFLUENT FLOW AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ILSA IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
TC 22S. INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
UNFAVORABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
232100Z AND 240900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20090323 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (ILSA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (ILSA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 18.4S 92.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 92.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 19.3S 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 91.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (ILSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM SOUTH-
WEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 22S CONTINUES TO WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING ALONG-TRACK SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE.
PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER, AND
ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BELOW THE 35 KNOT WARNING
THRESHOLD BY TAU 12. THEREFORE, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 18 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_ilsa_jtwc_advisories.htm
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