WTXS21 PGTW 20090323 11:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A
200 NM RADIUS OF 18.7S 40.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAIL-
ABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO
30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 230530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.5S 40.7E. THE SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONARY.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.3S
37.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.5S 40.7E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM WEST OF
ANTANANARIVO. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN THE CENTER OF
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE BUILDING TOWARD THE
CENTER OF THE LLCC WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING IN THE LOW LEVEL. THE
LLCC IS IN VERY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH LEVELS
OF OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AVAILABLE, HELPING TO FUEL THE RAPID DEVELOP-
MENT SEEN OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
LLCC IS UNDER THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PROVIDING
DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 231100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090324 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTY-FOU) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTY-FOU) WARNING NR 001    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240600Z --- NEAR 21.1S 41.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 41.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 21.4S 41.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 21.7S 41.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 21.8S 41.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 21.8S 40.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 41.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (TWENTY-FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION FLARING NEAR AN ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THIS LLCC LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR THE
CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE. ADDITIONALLY,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE HAS INTRODUCED A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
MECHANISM. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK VALUES OF 2.5 AND 2.0
FROM PGTW AND KNES, RESPECTIVELY. A SHIP JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC
ALSO REPORTED 30-KNOT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 232200Z. SEA SURFACE TEMPERA-
TURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE HIGH IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND,
ALONG WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, WILL ENABLE FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. TC 24S IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS BEFORE IT BEGINS TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE WEST. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 231051Z MAR 09
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 231100 ) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
242100Z AND 250900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090324 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IZILDA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IZILDA) WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241800Z --- NEAR 22.3S 41.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 41.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 23.0S 41.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 23.3S 41.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 23.2S 40.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 23.0S 40.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 41.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (IZILDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION ESTIMATE IS
BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE AND A 241508Z WINDSAT
PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-
NUMBERS OF 2.5 REPORTED BY PGTW AND FMEE. TC 24S IS TRACKING
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, A SECOND RIDGE WILL BUILD
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE AND PROVIDE A COMPETING STEERING
INFLUENCE, REDUCING FORWARD TRACK SPEED AND TURNING TC 24S SLOWLY
WESTWARD AROUND TAU 24. MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL OFFSET THE
POSITIVE INTENSITY INFLUENCES OF STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD,
PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z AND 252100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090325 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IZILDA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IZILDA) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250600Z --- NEAR 23.1S 42.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S 42.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 23.3S 42.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 23.4S 42.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 23.3S 41.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 23.1S 41.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 23.1S 42.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (IZILDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS SLOWED DOWN AND TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.5
REPORTED BY PGTW AND FMEE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE FIXES FROM THE SAME AGENCIES AND FROM A 250254Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE PASS OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 24S IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST.
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, A SECOND RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CYCLONE AND PROVIDE A COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCE, TURNING
THE CYCLONE SLOWLY WESTWARD. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS FOR THE SYSTEM
TO CONTINUE TO STEER SOUTHWARD BY THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. IN EITHER
CASE, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL OFFSET THE STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION, CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z AND 260900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090325 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IZILDA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IZILDA) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251800Z --- NEAR 23.8S 42.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 42.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 23.6S 42.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 23.2S 42.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 22.7S 41.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 22.2S 39.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 23.8S 42.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (IZILDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 24S HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY
OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS WITH THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE BASED ON
FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS WELL
FORMED CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A TIGHTLY FORMED BANDING EYE
FEATURE WITH A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. A 251727Z SSMI-S
IMAGE SHOWS A TIGHT SPIRAL OF BROKEN DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A LARGE REGION OF DRY AIR TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 24S IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
AND OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD AND PROVIDE THE STEERING INFLUENCE,
TURNING THE CYCLONE SLOWLY WESTWARD AND BACK INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
OFFSET THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW INITIATING A WEAKENING TREND
BEYOND TAU 12. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 13
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z AND 262100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090326 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IZILDA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IZILDA) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   260600Z --- NEAR 23.7S 43.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S 43.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 23.8S 43.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 24.0S 43.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 23.9S 42.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 23.7S 41.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 23.7S 43.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE TC) 24S (IZILDA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW
AND FMEE. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND ON ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY AND
INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WILL CAUSE DECOUPLING OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AS
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR INCREASES, THE LLCC WILL BEGIN TO STEER ON AN
EXTENSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING CENTERED TO THE WEST OVER SOUTH
AFRICA AND EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THIS WILL
CAUSE THE WEAKENING LLCC TO TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND BACK
INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
260600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z AND 270900Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090326 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IZILDA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IZILDA) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261200Z --- NEAR 24.0S 42.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.0S 42.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 24.1S 42.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 23.9S 41.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 23.7S 41.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 23.6S 40.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 24.0S 42.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (IZILDA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 65
KNOTS FROM PGTW AND FMEE. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS CAUSED DECOUPLING OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AS
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS INCREASED, THE LLCC HAS BEGUN TO STEER ON AN
EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE WEST OVER SOUTH
AFRICA AND EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE LLCC
HAS TURNED BACK TO THE WEST AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. THE WARNING
PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME, BUT DUE TO A GREATER THAN ANTICIPATED
IMPACT OF VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND WEAKENING, THE LLCC TURNED EARLIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THE LLCC IS NOW FULLY EXPOSED, AND IS
SHEARED MORE THAN 65 NM FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE  MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
270300Z AND 271500Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090326 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IZILDA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IZILDA) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261800Z --- NEAR 23.8S 42.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 42.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 23.6S 41.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 23.2S 40.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 23.8S 42.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (IZILDA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST INCREASES VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. A
261722Z TRMM IMAGE SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
COMPLETELY DECOUPLED FROM THE UPPER LEVELS WITH DEEP CONVECTION
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE LLCC CONTINUES TO STEER ALONG THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHARY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE WEST.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN).  THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 14 FEET.

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_izilda_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]