Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone JADE : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2008-2009 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone JADE Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20090404 00:30z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.2S 57.6E TO 12.9S 53.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 040000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.3S 57.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.2S 57.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3S 57.0E, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM NORTH OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A DEVELOPING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. A 031841Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ORGANIZED SURFACE CIRCULATION. 24 HOUR PRESSURE TRENDS IN THE AREA INDICATE A 2MB DROP. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE IS THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH SLOWLY STEERING THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 050030Z. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20090404 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040600Z --- NEAR 11.5S 56.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S 56.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 12.0S 55.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 12.9S 53.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 13.8S 51.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 14.5S 49.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 040900Z POSITION NEAR 11.6S 56.3E. TC 26S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 715 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST O6 HOURS. MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM JTWC OF 2.5 INDICATES AT LEAST A 35 KNOT SYSTEM. A 040237Z QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO REFLECTED A WELL ORGANIZED LLCC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. A 040207Z SSMI PASS REFLECTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LLCC TOWARD THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS THE LLCC ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENT DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TC 26S TRACKING TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR, WITH LANDFALL OCCURRING AROUND TAU 48. TC 26S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF MADAGASCAR. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 040021Z APR 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20090404 21:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041800Z --- NEAR 13.0S 55.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 55.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 14.3S 54.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 15.3S 52.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 16.2S 51.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 17.1S 50.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 042100Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 55.1E. TC 26S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 605 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST O6 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE LOW TO MID-LEVEL BANDING, YET ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AND WARRANTS FURTHER CONSOLIDATION. NONETHELESS A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER A BUILDING MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). VWS SHOULD THEN REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS THIS ANTI- CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BUILD. DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS OVERHEAD WILL ALSO SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL TRANSIT TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWEST- WARD TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER NORTHEASTERLIES. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE AS WELL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20090405 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050600Z --- NEAR 13.4S 52.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 52.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 13.7S 51.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 14.3S 49.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 14.9S 48.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 15.6S 47.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 050900Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 52.5E. TC 26S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP ABOUT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS TC 26S TURNED WESTWARD AND HAS INCREASED SPEED TOWARD THE NORTHERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. A RECENT 050227Z WINDSAT PASS REFLECTS MULTIPLE DEEP BANDS OF CONVECTION SPIRALING INTO A RING OF CONVECTION AROUND THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER A BUILDING MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TC 26S THROUGH LANDFALL. TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MADAGASCAR WILL LEAD TO QUICK DISSIPATION THROUGH TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z AND 060900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20090405 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051800Z --- NEAR 14.3S 51.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 51.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 15.2S 50.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 15.6S 49.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 16.5S 48.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 17.5S 48.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 052100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 51.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (JADE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP ABOUT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS TC 26S TURNED SOUTHWESTWARD AND HAS SLOWED AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. A RECENT 051459Z WINDSAT PASS SHOWS AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE IN THE 37GHZ MICROWAVE BAND. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. TC 26S IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARDS MADAGASCAR, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 12. GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH LANDFALL. TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MADAGASCAR WILL LEAD TO QUICK DISSIPATION THROUGH TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z AND 062100Z. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20090406 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z --- NEAR 15.6S 50.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 50.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 16.7S 48.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 17.7S 48.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 18.9S 47.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 20.1S 47.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 060900Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 49.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (JADE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT JADE HAS MOVED OVER COASTAL MADAGASCAR AND IS BEGINNING TO LOSE SOME OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER MADAGASCAR THROUGH TAU 48 WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT JADE IS LOCATED UNDER THE AXIS OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PROVIDING EXCELLENT OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 26S IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TURN SOUTHWARD AROUND TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z AND 070900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20090406 21:00z SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 006 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z --- NEAR 17.3S 49.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 49.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 18.9S 48.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 20.8S 47.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 062100Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 48.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (JADE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM NORTH- EAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST O6 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 061638Z SSMI/S IMAGE INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK FURTHER IN-LAND OVER ROUGH TERRAIN AND WEAKEN, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI- CIRCLE HAS REMAINED INTACT WITH A FAIRLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULAT- ION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND 06/12Z OBSERVATIONS FROM FMMS SHOWING 27-31 KNOT SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 BUT QUICKLY DIVERGES WITH THE UK MET OFFICE AND GFS MODELS INDICATING A SHARP RE-CURVATURE AND AN UNLIKELY INTENSIFICATION TREND. NOGAPS, GFDN, AND WBAR INDICATE A MORE REALISTIC WEAKENING TREND AND CONTINUED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER LAND. THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK BACK OVER WATER BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 35 KNOT INTENSITY. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 12 FEET.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20090407 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 071200Z --- NEAR 20.3S 49.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 49.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 21.5S 48.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 22.6S 48.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 23.5S 48.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 24.6S 48.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 071500Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 49.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (JADE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST O6 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS TRACKED BACK OVER WATER AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO BUILD NEAR THE CENTER DUE TO STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE REFLECT A 30 TO 35 KNOT SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SKIRT THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR WHILE MAKING MODEST INTENSITY GAINS IN WARM WATERS AND UNDER LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 24 EXCESSIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z AND 081500Z. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20090408 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z --- NEAR 21.4S 49.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 49.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 22.5S 48.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 23.3S 48.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 24.2S 48.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 24.9S 48.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 080300Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 48.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (JADE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM WEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. SYSTEM INTENSITY IS LIMITED BY ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND, WITH CONVECTION WEAK AND FLARING ON THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. TC 26S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR TAU 48 AND SUBSEQUENTLY BEGIN TURNING TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36 BEFORE ENCOUNTERING INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, RESULTING IN A WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z AND 090300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20090408 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 081200Z --- NEAR 22.1S 49.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 49.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 22.9S 49.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 23.8S 50.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 24.7S 50.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 26.2S 52.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 081500Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 49.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (JADE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM WEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS DESPITE MADAGASCAR'S CONTINUED DISRUPTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD SUSTAIN A 4O TO 45 KNOT CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD ALONG THE MERIDIONALLY-ORIENTED PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. BEYOND TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL TREND MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE OUT AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. VWS WILL ALSO HEIGHTEN AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH TO THE EAST, AND WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FALL BELOW SUSTAINABLE LEVELS NEAR TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z AND 091500Z. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20090409 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090000Z --- NEAR 22.5S 49.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 49.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 23.5S 50.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 24.5S 50.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 26.4S 52.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 29.0S 54.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 090300Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 50.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (JADE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 26S HAS WEAKENED DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. AN ANTICYCLONE SOUTH OF THE TC IS BLOCKING ANY SIGNIFICANT POLEWARD MOTION. THE DYNAMICAL AIDS ALMOST UNIFORMLY PREDICT A DEEP TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AFRICA AFTER TAU 36. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER EQUATORWARD, BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE, AND ULTIMATELY CAPTURE TC 26S. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW THE 35-KT THRESHOLD NEAR TAU 24, BUT WILL BEGIN TO RE-INTENSIFY NEAR TAU 48, AS THE THE TC BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL. THE STRONG VORTICITY FORECAST WITH THE TROUGH SUPPORTS AN EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION AND REINTENSIFICATION SCENARIO. THIS REPRESENTS A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE POSSIBILITY STILL EXISTS THAT TC 26S MIGHT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BEFORE IT CAN ENCOUNTER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. HOWEVER, THE MODELS AND SYNOPTIC EVIDENCE SUGGEST OTHERWISE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z AND 100300Z. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20090409 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z --- NEAR 22.6S 50.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 22.6S 50.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 23.4S 51.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 24.5S 52.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 26.2S 54.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 28.7S 56.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 091500Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 50.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (JADE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 26S REMAINS WEAK OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED TO THE EAST, HOWEVER, A SMALL REGION OF CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS ACTIVELY FIRING. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS STARTED TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND HAS EXPANDED OUTWARD. THE ANTICYCLONE SOUTH OF THE TC CONTINUES TO BLOCK ANY SIGNIFICANT POLEWARD MOTION. THE DYNAMICAL AIDS INDICATE A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AFRICA AROUND TAU 24. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER EQUATORWARD, BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE, AND ULTIMATELY CAPTURE TC 26S. TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY NEAR TAU 36, AS JADE BEGINS AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSISTION. THE STRONG VORTICITY FORECAST WITH THE TROUGH SUPPORTS AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND REINTENSIFICATION SCENARIO. THE POSSIBILITY STILL EXISTS THAT TC 26S MIGHT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BEFORE IT CAN ENCOUNTER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. HOWEVER, THE MODELS AND SYNOPTIC EVIDENCE SUGGEST OTHERWISE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z AND 101500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20090409 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 23.0S 50.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S 50.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 23.7S 51.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 24.8S 52.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 27.0S 55.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 23 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 30.9S 58.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 23.2S 50.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (JADE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 26S IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE. LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH IS PREVENTING THE SYSTEM FROM PROGRESSING MORE RAPIDLY POLEWARD. PERSISTENT WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM, CONFINING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS DRIVEN AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC AND A CONSEQUENT SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE. TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST BUILDS EQUATORWARD TOWARD THE CYCLONE. BY TAU 24, THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TC 26S POLEWARD AND INFLUENCE STORM STRUCTURE, INITIATING THE FIRST STAGE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE CYCLONE WILL ACCLERATE RAPIDLY POLEWARD AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER TAU 24, INTENSIFYING THROUGH THE TRANSITION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT. TC 26S WARNINGS WILL NOW BE ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20090410 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 23.3S 51.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 23.3S 51.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 24.3S 52.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 26.1S 54.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 29.7S 57.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 100300Z POSITION NEAR 23.6S 51.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (JADE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 26S CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED, WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONFINING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. DESPITE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, TC 26S HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE CYCLONE WILL RAPIDLY ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AROUND TAU 24. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ENABLE TC 26S TO STRENGTHEN AS IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20090410 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z --- NEAR 23.9S 51.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 23.9S 51.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 25.5S 53.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 28.4S 55.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 23 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 32.4S 57.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 100900Z POSITION NEAR 24.3S 51.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (JADE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 26S HAS TAKEN A MORE SOUTHWARD TURN OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTHEAST OF JADE. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER(LLCC) IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY, BUT DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND BE SHEARED EASTWARD. STRONG DIFFLUENCE ABOVE THE LLCC IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRANSITING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO TRANSITION TC 26S INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITH FULL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURRING AROUND TAU 36. THE CYCLONE WILL RAPIDLY ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AROUND TAU 12. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ENABLE TC 26S TO STRENGTHEN AS IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20090410 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 015// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 24.9S 52.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL REPEAT POSIT: 24.9S 52.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 27.2S 54.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 23 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 31.2S 57.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 101500Z POSITION NEAR 25.5S 53.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (JADE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 26S HAS SEEN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JADE HAS BEEN QUICKLY TRACKING EASTWARD AND DIGGING EQUATORWARD. THE ENHANCED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF TC 26S IS THE LIKELY REASONING FOR THIS INCREASE IN SPEED. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS STARTED TO INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WHICH HAS DECOUPLED CONVECTION FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC HAS BECOME COMPLETELY EXPOSED BUT REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED. AS THE LLCC BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE TROUGH, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LLCC WILL INTENSIFY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 24. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DECREASING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS HELPING TO EXPEDITE THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20090410 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 016// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 25.9S 53.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.9S 53.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 29.1S 56.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 33.6S 58.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 26.7S 54.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (JADE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 26S HAS BEGUN TO INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST, INCREASING IN SPEED, WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARING TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12 AND ALSO TO INTENSIFY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BEYOND TAU 12. A 101325Z AMSU-A VERTICAL CROSS SECTION INDICATES THAT ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM RETAINS A WARM CORE STRUCTURE, THE STRONGEST ANOMALY HAS LOWERED IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO NEAR THE SURFACE. THE WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL WARM ANOMALY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 15 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_jade_jtwc_advisories.htm
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