Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone JASPER : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2008-2009 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone JASPER Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PGTW 20090323 22:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.6S 157.6E TO 19.1S 160.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 231800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 158.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 152.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 158.0E, APPROXIMATELY 575 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DEEP CONVECTION FLARING NEAR THE CENTER OF A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 231938Z SSMI IMAGE AND A 231939Z QUIKSCAT PASS. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW SUSTAINED ON THE POLEWARD SIDE BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE BY PERIPHERAL FLOW AROUND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. BASED ON RAPIDLY IMPROVING LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 242200Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20090324 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (JASPER) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (JASPER) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 17.3S 159.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 159.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 18.2S 160.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 19.3S 161.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 19.9S 160.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 19.3S 159.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 240300Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 159.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5 FROM PGTW AND 3.0 FROM ABRF AND CONSOLIDATING STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT TC 23P HAS FORMED. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER, A SECOND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL INDUCE A COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCE, SLOWING FORWARD TRACK MOTION AND TURNING THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 36. THE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACKERS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR AND GFDN, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER, DEPICTIONS OF THE EXACT TRACK VARY, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. TC 23P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DUAL-CHANNEL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER TAU 24 SHOULD LIMIT THIS INTENSIFICATION TO A SLOWER RATE. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 232151Z MAR 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 232200). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z AND 250300Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20090324 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (JASPER) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (JASPER) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241200Z --- NEAR 19.1S 160.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 160.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 20.2S 161.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 21.6S 163.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 22.9S 165.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 23.7S 168.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 241500Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 161.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE DEEP COLD DENSE OVERCAST MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 240640 QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AND NUMEROUS SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF TC 23P WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND NFFN AT 3.0 AND 3.5, RESPECTIVELY. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED FASTER TO THE SOUTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST THAT HAS RAPIDLY BUILT AND BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS VIGOROUS OVER THE SYSTEM, AS EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLING ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL TEMPER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 14 FEET.NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z AND 251500Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20090325 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (JASPER) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (JASPER) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250000Z --- NEAR 21.1S 163.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 163.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 21.7S 163.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 21.5S 162.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 20.9S 161.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 250300Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 163.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. OBSERVATION OF AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY LENDS CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT AGENCY DVORAK T- NUMBERS RANGING FROM 2.0 TO 3.0. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR TC 23P HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING. INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DISPLACED NEARLY ALL DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CYCLONE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE STEERING LEVEL FOR THE STORM HAS LOWERED AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THIS SHEAR AND A RESULTANT ONGOING WEAKENING TREND. THEREFORE, THE STORM IS NOW EXPECTED TO FOLLOW STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY LOW TO MID- LEVEL FLOW ANALYZED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO STEER THE LLCC EQUATORWARD BY TAU 12. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR, SUPPORTS THIS GENERAL TRACK SCENARIO. AS THE STORM TURNS EQUATORWARD, PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL OFFSET THE FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN BELOW THE 35 KNOT WARNING THRESHOLD BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z AND 260300Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20090325 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (JASPER) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251200Z --- NEAR 21.5S 163.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 163.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 20.9S 163.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 251500Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 163.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTH-WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS COMPLETELY DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT AND COOL AIR ENTRAINMENT AT THE LOW LEVELS. THE CURRENT LLCC POSITION HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND WAS EXTRAPOLATED FROM MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBER OF 1.5 FROM NFFN. TC 23P IS NOW BEING STEERED NORTH BY A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION INTENSITY AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONI- TORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 12 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_jasper_jtwc_advisories.htm
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