Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone KIRRILY : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2008-2009 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone KIRRILY Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PGTW 20090426 01:00z SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS OF 7.8S 135.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY- CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 260030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.8S 135.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.0S 136.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.8S 135.8E, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM NORTH- EAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION WITH MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 252204Z SSMI/S IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE WESTERN QUADRANT INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA HAS BEEN UNAVAILABLE, HOWEVER, A 25/18Z SHIP REPORT FROM VDRX2, LOCATED ABOUT 100 NM SSW, INDICATED WINDS OF 110/24 AND SLP OF 1008.5 MB. THIS SUPPORTS THE ESTIMATED 25-30 KNOT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS. THE LLCC IS LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. ADDITIONALLY, SST, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND MOISTURE ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TRACK MOTION HAS BEEN SLOW AND ERRATIC BUT THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN TH ENEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 270100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20090426 21:00z SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVE) WARNING NR 001 REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260100Z APR 09// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 261800Z --- NEAR 7.3S 134.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 7.3S 134.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 6.7S 133.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 5.8S 132.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 5.1S 131.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 4.7S 130.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 262100Z POSITION NEAR 7.1S 134.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST O6 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 261623Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULA- TION CENTER (LLCC) OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECT- IVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND TRACK BASED ON THE IMPROVED LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND DECISION TO WARN WAS BASED ON THE TIGHTER WRAP AND DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. TC 27S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH THE FIRST 12-18 HOURS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE ARU ISLANDS. OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER SLOW DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM PEAKING AT 40-45 KNOT INTENSITY AFTER TAU 24. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 260100Z APR 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 260100). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z AND 272100Z.// ========================================================================= SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVE) WARNING NR 002 WTXS31 PGTW 20090427 09:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVE) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270600Z --- NEAR 6.4S 134.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 6.4S 134.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 5.7S 133.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 4.9S 132.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 5.3S 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 5.9S 128.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 270900Z POSITION NEAR 6.2S 133.8E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z AND 280900Z. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20090427 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z --- NEAR 6.1S 133.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 6.1S 133.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 5.9S 132.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 6.0S 131.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 6.3S 130.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 6.7S 129.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 272100Z POSITION NEAR 6.1S 133.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27S (KIRRILY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS IT HAS TRACKED TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE KEPULAUAN KAI ISLANDS. THE CURRENT POSITION HAS POOR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN AND IS PREDOMINANTLY BASED ON PERSISTENCE. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SLIGHT INCREASE FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 48 AS TC 27S TRACKS INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRON- MENT WITH DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INCREASING TOTAL PRECIPI- TABLE WATER CONTENT, DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. KIRRILY WILL TRACK AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z AND 282100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20090428 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z --- NEAR 6.0S 133.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - QUASISTATIONARY POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 6.0S 133.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 5.9S 132.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 5.8S 131.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 5.8S 130.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 6.4S 128.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 280900Z POSITION NEAR 6.0S 132.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27S (KIRRILY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION HAS POOR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNCHANGED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO MODERATE LEVELS OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDSHEAR. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A SLIGHT INCREASE FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 48 AS TC 27S TRACKS INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT, DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. KIRRILY IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL PROVIDE WEAK STEERING FLOW TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z AND 290900Z. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20090428 21:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281800Z --- NEAR 5.4S 133.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 5.4S 133.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 5.5S 132.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 5.9S 131.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 282100Z POSITION NEAR 5.4S 132.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27S (KIRRILY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS MOVED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. BOTH PGTW AND ADRM HAVE DROPPED THEIR INTENSITY ESTIMATES TO A 1.5/2.5, OR A 25 TO 35 KNOT SYSTEM, AS CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT DIED OFF. HOWEVER, OBSERVATIONS FROM TUAL, KEPULAUAN KAI (978100), OF WHICH THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IS POSITIONED LESS THAN A QUARTER DEGREE TO THE NORTHEAST, SUPPORT AN EVEN WEAKER SYSTEM. RECENTLY REPORTED SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FROM TUAL IS 1011 MB (WITH 24 HOUR PRESSURE RISES), WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OUT OF THE WEST- SOUTHWEST OF NO GREATER THAN 10 KNOTS. THE LOW LEVEL IS FORE- CAST TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE PREDOMINANT LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW, AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BELOW SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WARNING CRITERIA. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMAR- FCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 9 FEET.
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_kirrily_jtwc_advisories.htm
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