Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone BEJISA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2013-2014 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone BEJISA Track Map and Data |
WTXS22 PGTW 20131229 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.5S 51.7E TO 16.1S 52.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 290000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.0S 52.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7S
51.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 52.2E, APPROXIMATELY 700 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEPENING CENTRAL
CONVECTION AND A WELL ESTABLISHED BANDING FEATURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 282329Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MAY BE PARTIALLY EXPOSED. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATED A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A SMALL NUMBER OF
30 KNOT WIND BARBS. AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE AN
INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM
IS IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), WHICH INDICATES A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE
WESTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS HAVE REMAINED STRONG.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO
THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
300300Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20131229 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290251ZDEC2013//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 10.2S 52.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 52.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 10.6S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 10.9S 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 11.2S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 11.8S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 13.9S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.9S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 20.0S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 52.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 685 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
FLARING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, FORMATIVE BANDS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED
FROM A 290227Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS
FROM PGTW AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
BETWEEN TWO RIDGE AXES - ONE TO THE NORTH AND ANOTHER TO THE SOUTH -
IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG
WESTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS HAVE FUELED THE GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY IN A COL AREA
BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STR), THEREFORE, IT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ERRATICALLY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR TO
THE EAST WILL EMERGE AS THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND NUDGE
THE CYCLONE POLEWARD. THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, IN
ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR A STEADY
INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 65 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARDS,
INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE STEERING
FLOW AS REFLECTED IN THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE, THE CONFIDENCE
TO THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS POOR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z AND 300900Z.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTXS22 PGTW 290300).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. //
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20131229 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 10.4S 52.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S 52.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 10.8S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 11.3S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 12.0S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 13.1S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.1S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 18.9S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 21.4S 56.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 10.5S 52.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 670 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FLARING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING A PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, FORMATIVE
BANDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY HAVE CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND
WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
ABOVE ANIMATION AND A 291739Z METOP-B IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS AS WELL AS A RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATING A 35 TO 40 KNOT CIRCULATION. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS BETWEEN TWO RIDGE AXES - ONE
TO THE NORTH AND ANOTHER TO THE SOUTH - IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG WESTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS HAVE FUELED THE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. TC
06S IS CURRENTLY IN A COL AREA BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STR),
THEREFORE, TC 06S MAY MOVE ERRATICALLY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
AFTER TAU 36, THE STR TO THE EAST WILL EMERGE AS THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM AND NUDGE THE CYCLONE POLEWARD. THE FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR A STEADY INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 75
KNOTS BY TAU 72. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST FOR TC BEJISA HAS OVERALL INCREASED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE STEERING FLOW AS REFLECTED
IN THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE, THE CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS POOR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z AND 302100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20131230 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 11.2S 52.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 52.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 12.1S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 13.0S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 14.6S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.0S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.4S 54.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 20.6S 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 23.0S 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 11.4S 52.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED WITH FORMATIVE BANDS
WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT REMAINS OBSCURED
BY A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND AMIDST A TIGHT GROUPING OF AGENCY FIXES. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES,
AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS BETWEEN TWO
RIDGE AXES - ONE TO THE NORTH AND ONE TO THE SOUTH - IN AN AREA OF
LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A
STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY,
IS OFFSETTING THE VWS AND FUELING THE INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE IS
NOW OUT OF THE COL AREA AND IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THIS
TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WILL
PROMOTE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION - PEAKING AT 90 KNOTS - BEFORE
INCREASING VWS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, BEGIN TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z AND
310900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. //
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20131230 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 12.3S 52.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 52.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 13.5S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 14.6S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.2S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 17.8S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 20.8S 54.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 22.7S 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 24.6S 54.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 52.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY ORGANIZED WITH ENHANCED DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A 6 NM PINHOLE EYE. A 301803Z METOP-A 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THE MSI AND PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF LOW (10 TO
15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW,
AS EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, IS FUELING THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (50 KNOT INCREASE IN PAST 24 HOURS). ADDITIONALLY,
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) WILL PROMOTE FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 36. TC
06S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC 06S IS
FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AS AN APPROACHING TROUGH WEAKENS THE
STR. BY TAU 96, A RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH PRODUCING
A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK CHANGE. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TC 06S SHOULD
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO COOLER SST AND INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72; HOWEVER, GUIDANCE DIVERGES IN THE LATER
TAUS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK SPEED AND TIMING OF THE
SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS
THROUGH TAU 72 BUT WEST OF THE CONSENSUS IN THE EXTENDED TAUS,
FAVORING THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z AND 312100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31
PGTW).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20131231 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 13.3S 53.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 53.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 14.8S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.4S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 17.9S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 19.4S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 21.7S 56.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 23.1S 56.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 24.9S 54.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 53.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 446 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM THAT HAS
MAINTAINED A SMALL 10NM EYE WHILE THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION
AROUND THE EYE HAS SLIGHTLY CONTRACTED. A 310410Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A COMPACT EYE WALL STRUCTURE WHILE THE BULK
OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE READILY
APPARENT EYE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED TO
BE 105 KNOTS BASED UPON THE DEFINED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND IS
SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS FROM
PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE AREA OF LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
WHILE STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW REMAINS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS STR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINATE STEERING
INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 36 AS IT DRIVES THE SYSTEM ON A GENERALLY
SOUTHERN TRAJECTORY. AFTER TAU 36, TC 06S IS FORECAST TO TURN
SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STR. BY
TAU 96, ANOTHER STR WILL BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM WHICH
CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS), ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT,
WILL PROMOTE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115
KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER WHICH, COOLING SST AND INCREASING VWS WILL
INDUCE A SLOW WEAKENING PROCESS WHICH WILL BECOME MORE ACCELERATED
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
FACTORS. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72;
HOWEVER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE IN THE LATER TAUS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK SPEED AND TIMING OF THE SOUTHWESTWARD
TURN. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST,
WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72 BUT
WEST OF THE CONSENSUS IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, FAVORING THE GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z AND 010900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20131231 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 15.2S 53.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 53.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.7S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 18.3S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 19.6S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 21.0S 55.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 22.8S 55.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 25.4S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 27.8S 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 53.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 334 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED AS TC 06S
UNDERGOES AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). RECENT MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS LOST THE EYE FEATURE,
BUT CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS REMAINED TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 311836Z METOP-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE PGTW
SATELLITE FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN
A FAVORABLE AREA OF LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS TC 06S CONTINUES THE ERC BUT THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 100 KNOTS BY TAU 24.
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TC 06S SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO COOLER
SST AND INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERLIES. TC 06S IS
TRACKING SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TC 06S IS FORECAST
TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AS AN APPROACHING TROUGH WEAKENS THE STR. BY
TAU 72, A HIGH WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH PRODUCING A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK CHANGE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EGRR, MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72; HOWEVER, GUIDANCE
DIVERGES IN THE LATER TAUS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK SPEED
AND TIMING OF THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 48 BUT WEST OF THE CONSENSUS IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS, FAVORING THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
010900Z AND 012100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) FINAL
WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20140101 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 17.1S 53.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 53.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 18.6S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 20.0S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 21.2S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 22.1S 55.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 23.7S 54.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 26.5S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 29.7S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 53.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 233 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE TC 06S HAS COMPLETED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CIRCLE (ERC) AS DEEP CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO RE-BUILD AROUND A
NEWLY RE-FORMED 15NM RAGGED EYE IN THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 010359Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING ALONG
THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE EYEWALL, ALSO SIGNALING THE
COMPLETION OF THE ERC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE RAGGED
EYE FEATURE SEEN IN THE MSI AND INFRARED SATELLITE LOOPS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND KNES THAT RANGE FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS AND IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE SYSTEMS CURRENT STRUCTURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) REMAINS LOW (10-15 KNOTS) AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CONTINUES. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT IS POSITIONED TO THE
EAST OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE NEXT DAY, AN APPROACHING TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR WHICH WILL DEFLECT TC 06S TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
PROPAGATE EAST WHICH WILL ALLOW ANOTHER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO QUICKLY
BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND PRODUCE A SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK CHANGE. DUE TO THE COMPLETION OF THE ERC, TC BEJISA IS NOW
EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 24 AS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSIST. AFTER WHICH, COOLING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND INCREASING VWS WILL START TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM WITH A MORE RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED
AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO COLD SSTS (< 26 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND FURTHER
INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERLIES. JUST AFTER TAU 96, TC
BEJISA WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WILL
INDUCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSISTION BY TAU 120. WITH THE CONTINUED
EXCEPTION OF EGRR, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72; HOWEVER, GUIDANCE DIVERGES IN THE
LATER TAUS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK SPEED AND TIMING OF THE
SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. OVERALL, DUE TO THE TRANSITIONING STEERING
INFLUENCES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 35 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z AND 020900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20140101 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 53.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 53.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 20.5S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 21.5S 54.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 22.3S 55.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 23.0S 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 24.7S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 28.6S 49.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 33.4S 46.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 53.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 136 NM
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A NEWLY FORMED PINHOLE EYE
FEATURE SURROUNDED BY AN IMPROVING DEEP CONVECTIVE EYEWALL. A
011634Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION
BUILDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE EYEWALL. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE PINHOLE EYE FEATURE SEEN IN THE EIR AND
EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105
KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 102 TO 115
KNOTS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LOW (10-15 KNOTS) AND STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT IS
POSITIONED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 24, A TRANSITORY TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR AND DEFLECT TC 06S TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
PROPAGATING EAST AND ALLOW A MID- TO DEEP-LAYER STR TO QUICKLY BUILD
IN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM; RESULTING IN A SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK. TC BEJISA IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS
BY TAU 12 AS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSIST. AFTER
WHICH, COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VWS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM WITH A MORE RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED
AFTER TAU 36. TC BEJISA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION SOME TIME AFTER TAU 96 AS IT ENCOUNTERS A WEAK BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND INCREASING VWS DUE TO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. WITH THE
CONTINUED EXCEPTION OF EGRR, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE DIVERGES
IN THE LATER TAUS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK SPEED AND TIMING
OF THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. OVERALL, DUE TO THE TRANSITIONING OF
STEERING INFLUENCES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 35 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z AND 022100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20140102 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 20.4S 54.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 54.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 21.6S 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 22.4S 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 23.0S 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 24.1S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 26.5S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 31.3S 47.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 34.9S 45.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 54.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MAINTAINED AN
EYE, THE DIAMETER OF WHICH HAS INCREASED TO 22 NM. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES SOUTH OF A
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A VERY STRONG
SOUTHEASTWARD COMPONENT, AS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY,
IS OFFSETTING THE VWS AND SUSTAINING THE DEEP CONVECTION. TC 06S IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 24, A MID- TO
DEEP-LAYERED STR APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL COMPETE FOR
STEERING AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DECELERATE BEFORE SLOWLY TURNING
TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AS THE NEW STR ASSUMES FULL STEERING.
NEAR TAU 96, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FOLLOWING BEHIND THE STR, WILL
WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DEFLECT POLEWARD -
PRELUDE TO A SOUTHEASTWARD RECURVATURE AND EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT). AS TC BEJISA TRACKS POLEWARD, THE VWS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE RESULTING IN THE
CYCLONES GRADUAL WEAKENING. BY TAU 120, TC 06S WILL BEGIN ETT AS IT
GETS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST
TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES IN THE LATER
TAUS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK SPEED AND TIMING OF THE ETT.
DUE TO THE MULTIPLE STEERING MECHANISMS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z
IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z AND 030900Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20140102 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 21.9S 55.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 55.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 22.9S 55.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 23.7S 55.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 24.6S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 25.8S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 30.5S 47.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 34.2S 42.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 35.0S 39.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 55.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 84 NM SOUTH OF
ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY DEGRADED AS CONVECTION HAS SHALLOWED
AND THE EYE HAS BECOME RAGGED AND PARTIALLY CLOUD FILLED. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE IR ANIMATION
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 90 KNOTS BASED
ON THE LOW END OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90-
102 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
APPROXIMATELY 12 DEGREES SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS RADIAL OUTFLOW, WITH A VERY STRONG
SOUTHEASTWARD COMPONENT, OFFSETTING THE VWS AND SUSTAINING THE
REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING POLEWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE EAST. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS SHIFTED FROM A GENERAL RECURVE
SCENARIO AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TO A DISSIPATION OVER WATER
DUE TO A CHANGE IN COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES IN THE LATER TAUS.
AFTER TAU 12, A MID- TO DEEP-LAYERED STR APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL COMPETE FOR STEERING AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO
DECELERATE BEFORE SLOWLY TURNING TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AS
THE NEW STR ASSUMES FULL STEERING. NEAR TAU 96, A TRANSITORY MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE AND ALLOW
ANOTHER A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO QUICKLY BUILD-IN BEHIND THE
PASSING TROUGH; DEFLECTING THE STORM FURTHER TO THE WEST. AS TC
BEJISA TRACKS POLEWARD, THE VWS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE RESULTING IN THE CYCLONES GRADUAL
WEAKENING. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DISSIPATING OVER WATER BY TAU
96 AND FULLY DISSIPATED BY TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE IS BIFURCATED
NEAR TAU 48 AS NAVGEM AND COAMPS INDICATE A RECURVE SCENARIO WITH
THE PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WHILE GFS, ECMWF AND EGRR INDICATE A
TRACK IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE JTWC FORECAST. DUE TO THE MULTIPLE
STEERING MECHANISMS AND BIFURCATION IN THE MODELS, THERE IS OVERALL
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND HEDGED TOWARD GFS AND ECMWF.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 030900Z AND 032100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20140103 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 23.1S 55.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S 55.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 24.1S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 25.1S 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 26.5S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 28.5S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 33.4S 46.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 35.0S 42.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 23.4S 55.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAINT DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE EYE THAT HAS BEEN
PRESENT OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS HAS SHRUNK AND BECOME CLOUD-FILLED.
CONCURRENTLY, THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE SHALLOW AS THE FEEDER
BANDS BEGAN TO UNRAVEL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE
SHRINKING EYE IN THE MSI ANIMATION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 15 DEGREES
SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-25 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A
ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, WITH A VERY STRONG SOUTHEASTWARD COMPONENT, IS
OFFSETTING THE VWS AND SUSTAINING THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION. TC
06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS,
A MID- TO DEEP-LAYERED REFLECTION OF THE STR APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL COMPETE FOR STEERING AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO
DECELERATE BEFORE SLOWLY TURNING TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. NEAR
TAU 72, A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE NEW STR,
RESULTING IN ANOTHER WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER; BY THIS TIME
FRAME, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED TC BEJISA WITH ITS DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU
96. DUE TO THE MULTIPLE STEERING MECHANISMS AS TRANSLATED IN THE
BIFURCATION OF THE NUMERIC MODELS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z AND 040900Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20140103 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 24.0S 55.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0S 55.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 24.7S 54.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 26.2S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 28.2S 50.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 30.2S 48.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 34.0S 44.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 54.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
SOUTH OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING, YET TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 031817Z METOP-A 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
ALSO WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR
ANIMATION AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AS WELL AS THE TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN A LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT IN THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS
TC 06S ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) AND
INCREASING VWS. FURTHERMORE, THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF COLDER SST
(LESS THAN 25 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND STRONGER VWS, WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKEN TC BEJISA. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BETWEEN
TAU 48 AND TAU 72. DUE TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE
TRACKERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
031800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z AND 042100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20140104 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 25.1S 54.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.1S 54.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 26.5S 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 28.6S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 31.2S 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 33.3S 44.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 25.4S 53.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 284 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DEFINED SYSTEM WITH SHALLOW TIGHTLY WRAPPED
CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 040325Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE
SYSTEM HAS REMAINED VERY TIGHTLY WRAPPED DESPITE A CONTINUED
WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC SEEN IN THE MSI ANIMATION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE HIGHER
END OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AS THE
SYSTEM REMAINS WELL WRAPPED AND DVORAK ESTIMATES MAY BE LOW DUE TO
THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS MODERATE (15
TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) CONTINUES TO HAMPER THE
EFFECTS OF OVERALL GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH IS EVIDENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 06S WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN AS COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (LESS THAN 26 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND INCREASING VWS
SLOWLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. DUE
TO A GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK,
WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
042100Z AND 050900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20140104 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 26.5S 52.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.5S 52.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 28.7S 49.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 31.8S 46.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 35.0S 43.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 27.1S 51.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL-STRUCTURED SYSTEM WITH
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 041431Z TRMM 85 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE ALSO REVEALS THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
HAS REMAINED TIGHTLY CURVED DESPITE A CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE
CONVECTION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LLCC SEEN IN THE MSI ANIMATION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS FROM KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS MODERATE (15 TO
20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) CONTINUES TO HAMPER THE EFFECTS
OF OVERALL GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VWS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TC 06S AND
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. DUE TO THE GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD,
THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH
IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050900Z AND 052100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20140105 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 28.9S 49.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.9S 49.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 32.2S 46.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 35.4S 43.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 29.7S 48.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 604 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 21
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20140105 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 32.3S 45.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.3S 45.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 35.5S 42.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 33.1S 44.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 664 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 23
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS
OF TRANSITIONING INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS EXPECTED TO
COMPLETE THIS TRANSITION BY TAU 12. TC 06S IS LOCATED UNDER A
BROAD, STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL LOW WITH JET-STRENGTH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND DRY AIR FLOWING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. RECENT SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD WITH 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS GREATER THAN 100 NM,
TYPICAL OF SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH SHALLOW
CONVECTION. ALL DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER COOLER SST (22 TO 23C).
TC 06S IS POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS ACCELERATING SOUTHWESTWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AND WILL COMPLETE TRANSITION INTO
A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 12. THE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM WILL
EVENTUALLY GET ABSORBED INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT NOT UNTIL THE 2- TO 3-DAY TIMEFRAME AS IT
TRACKS AROUND 40 DEGREES LATITUDE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 12 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_bejisa_jtwc_advisories.htm
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