Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone BRUCE : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2013-2014 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone BRUCE Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20131217 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.0S 98.2E TO 11.4S 94.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 170000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.6S 97.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.3S
97.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6S 97.1E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM NORTH OF
COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A BROAD, YET CONSOLIDATING, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION. A 162255Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN
IMPROVING STRUCTURE AS BANDING HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED WHILE
CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED DESPITE SOME DISORGANIZATION IN THE
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS BEING COUNTERED BY
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1000 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM, THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
180300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20131217 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170251Z DEC 13//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 9.6S 96.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S 96.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 11.1S 95.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 12.2S 94.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 12.9S 92.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 13.4S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 14.4S 86.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 15.9S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.7S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 96.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
NORTH OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION WHILE A 171851Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS AN IMPROVING STRUCTURE AS CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AS THE LLCC
HAS BECOME TIGHTER WRAPPED. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED UPON THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. BASED ON THIS INCREASE
IN STRUCTURE, THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS,
WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE SAME
VALUE FROM PGTW AND APRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS)
LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HAS MAINTAINED EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. TC
04S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS STR WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE THE SYSTEM'S TRACK BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD AS THE STR IS MODIFIED BY A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO
THE SOUTH. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN
AND TURN SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH WEAKENS THE STR. GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND WARM ALONG
TRACK SSTS (26 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS) WILL ALLOW FOR GENERAL
INTENSIFICATION REACHING 70 KNOTS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST.
LIMITED DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SPREAD BUT IN GENERALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE SPREAD IN THE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180900Z AND 182100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 170251Z DEC 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 170300). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S
(AMARA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20131218 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 10.9S 95.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 95.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 11.8S 93.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 12.5S 92.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 13.0S 90.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 13.6S 88.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 14.6S 84.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.4S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.9S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 95.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BRUCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 108 NM
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
DEFINED YET ELONGATED CENTER. A 180407Z TRMM IMAGE INDICATES
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH DEFINED TIGHTLY-WRAPPED
SHALLOW BANDING AND AN ELONGATED CENTER. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT MOTION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS, BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE. TC 04S IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER
TAU 72, AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH AND BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW TC 04S TO RE-CURVE POLEWARD. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 120 AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND
INDICATES A RE-CURVE SCENARIO. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER, THE
JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT AND FAVORS THE MORE RELIABLE GFS,
NAVGEM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
180600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20131218 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 11.6S 94.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S 94.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 12.2S 92.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 12.6S 90.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 13.2S 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 13.7S 86.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 15.7S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.4S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.0S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 11.7S 93.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM WEST
OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED YET ELONGATED CENTER. A
181529Z AMSU-B IMAGE INDICATES FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WITH DEFINED TIGHTLY-WRAPPED SHALLOW BANDING AND AN ELONGATED
CENTER. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
AND RECENT MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS. TC
04S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
72. AFTER TAU 72, AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH AND BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TC 04S TO RE-CURVE POLEWARD. TC 04S IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 120 AS IT
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ENCOUNTER
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT AND INDICATES A RE-CURVE SCENARIO. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
HOWEVER, THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT AND FAVORS THE MORE
RELIABLE GFS, NAVGEM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND 192100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20131219 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 12.2S 92.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S 92.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 12.7S 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 13.1S 88.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 13.6S 86.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 14.5S 84.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.2S 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.9S 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 25.4S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 91.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BRUCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST
OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 190330Z AMSU-B IMAGE DEPICT DEEP, YET BROKEN, CONCENTRIC
CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON
AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77
KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED
UNDERNEATH A POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS PROVIDING LOW (10-
15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TROUGH
DRAPED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 04S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST
TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
AND BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
TC 04S TO RE-CURVE POLEWARD. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90
KNOTS BY TAU 48 AS IT APPROACHES THE STR AXIS AND NEARS THE TURN.
AFTER TAU 72, TC 04S WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS IT BEGINS TO
ACCELERATE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND ALL INDICATE A RE-CURVE SCENARIO WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY INSIDE OF
AND FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE ERRONEOUS
COAMPS-TC TRACKER. LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
DUE TO THE VARIOUS ALONG TRACK SPEEDS INDICATED BY ALL VORTEX
TRACKERS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S
(AMARA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20131219 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 12.6S 91.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 91.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 13.0S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 13.4S 87.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 14.2S 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.3S 83.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.2S 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.1S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 26.5S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 90.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BRUCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM WEST
OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 191210Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT DEEPENING CONVECTION WITHIN THE
EYEWALL WHICH SURROUNDS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED BASED ON
AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 102
KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED
UNDERNEATH A POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS PROVIDING LOW (10-
15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TROUGH
DRAPED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 04S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST
TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH WILL CAUSE
TC 04S TO RE-CURVE POLEWARD. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 115 KNOTS
BY TAU 36 BASED ON THE CURRENT STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT AND SUBSEQUENT
INCREASE IN GUIDANCE. BY TAU 72, TC 04S WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND ALL INDICATE A RE-
CURVE SCENARIO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY INSIDE OF AND FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE ERRONEOUS COAMPS-TC TRACKER. LOW CONFIDENCE
REMAINS IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE VARIOUS ALONG TRACK
SPEEDS INDICATED BY ALL VORTEX TRACKERS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 26 FEET. THE WARNING CYCLE FOR TC BRUCE HAS
BEEN CHANGED. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND 201500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20131220 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 13.3S 89.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 89.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 13.9S 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 14.4S 85.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.5S 82.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.3S 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.5S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 26.2S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 28.6S 86.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 89.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 424 NM WEST
OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SHARPLY DEFINED 30 NM EYE WITH DEEPENING CONVECTION
THROUGHOUT THE EYEWALL. A 192320Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING SURROUNDING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS WELL
AS A WELL ESTABLISHED FEEDER BAND WRAPPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR
ANIMATION AND SSMIS IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 115 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 04S IS JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (10-
15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES ENHANCED DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW. TC 04S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEEP LAYER STR AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STR, WHICH WILL CAUSE TC 04S TO RE-CURVE POLEWARD. TC 04S IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) BY TAU 96 AS IT
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETE ET BY
TAU 120. THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 120 KNOTS BY TAU
12 BASED ON THE CURRENT STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT AND SUBSEQUENT
ADJUSTMENTS IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THUS, THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY INSIDE OF AND FASTER THAN THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BASED ON A KNOWN HISTORICAL BIAS. HOWEVER, LOW
CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIMING OF THE PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND
SUBSEQUENT STR BREAKDOWN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z
IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z AND 210300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20131220 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 13.8S 87.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 87.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 14.6S 85.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.7S 82.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.6S 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 20.0S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 26.2S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 30.4S 84.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 31.2S 94.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 86.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BRUCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CLASSIC TC STRUCTURE WITH A DEEPLY
CONVECTIVE, SYMMETRIC EYEWALL SURROUNDED BY SPIRALING FEEDER BANDS
IN ALL QUADRANTS. A 201157Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS THE SHARPLY
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL WITH A STRONG FEEDER BAND OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE 25NM EYE APPARENT
IN ALL IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 6.5 FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. TC
BRUCE HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED BY 35 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS
AND AN ASTONISHING 70 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 04S IS JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (10-
15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES ENHANCED DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW. TC 04S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEEP LAYER STR AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STR, WHICH WILL CAUSE TC 04S TO RE-CURVE POLEWARD. TC 04S IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96 AS IT
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETE ETT BY
TAU 120. THE COLD-CORE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TC BRUCE WILL
RIDE IN THE WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE UNTIL ABOUT DAY SEVEN WHEN ANOTHER,
DEEPER, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES BY AND EVENTUALLY ABSORBS IT.
WITH UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS FORECAST TO REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE NEXT
36 HOURS THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 130 KNOTS BY TAU 12
AND THEN SLOWLY BEGINS TO DROP THEREAFTER. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS BY TAU 48 AT LATITUDE 20S WHILE
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SHUTS DOWN BY TAU 36. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
INCREASE TO STRONG LEVELS FROM THE NORTHWEST BY TAU 72 ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THEREFORE, FURTHER WEAKENING WILL
OCCUR AFTER TAU 48 AND TC BRUCE IS EXPECTED TO BE A GALE FORCE COLD-
CORE LOW BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THUS, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY INSIDE OF AND FASTER
THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BASED ON A KNOWN HISTORICAL BIAS.
HOWEVER, LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIMING OF THE PASSING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT STR BREAKDOWN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z AND
211500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20131221 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 14.5S 85.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 85.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.0S 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 18.0S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 20.3S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 23.2S 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 28.2S 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 30.3S 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 84.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 860 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INTENSE SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS
INCREASED IN THE AREAL EXTENT WHILE MAINTAINING A 20 NM EYE. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE READILY APPARENT IN ALL IMAGERY
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
135 KNOTS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 7.0 FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 04S IS JUST
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. TC 04S IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYER STR AND IS FORECAST
TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH WILL CAUSE TC 04S
TO RE-CURVE POLEWARD. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 72 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96. THE COLD-CORE
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TC BRUCE WILL RIDE IN THE WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE UNTIL ABOUT DAY SIX WHEN ANOTHER, DEEPER, MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES BY AND EVENTUALLY ABSORBS IT. WITH UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS FORECAST TO REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS
THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 140 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AND THEN
SLOWLY BEGINS TO DROP THEREAFTER. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS BY TAU 36 AT LATITUDE 20S WHILE OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT DROPS OFF BY TAU 24. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO
STRONG LEVELS FROM THE NORTHWEST BY TAU 48 ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. THEREFORE, FURTHER WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER TAU
48 AND TC BRUCE IS EXPECTED TO BE A GALE FORCE COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU
96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THUS, THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY INSIDE OF AND FASTER THAN THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS BASED ON A KNOWN HISTORICAL BIAS. HOWEVER, LOW
CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIMING OF THE PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND
SUBSEQUENT STR BREAKDOWN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z
IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z AND 220300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20131221 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 82.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 82.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.3S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 19.9S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 22.7S 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 25.6S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 30.4S 83.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 31.7S 92.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 81.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BRUCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 769 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT TC 04S HAS MAINTAINED NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS, CONSEQUENTLY, DEEP CONVECTION IS WELL-ORGANIZED WITH
A 20 NM EYE. A 211026Z NOAA-18 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A COMPACT 80 NM
DIAMETER EYEWALL WITH A WEAK CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 135 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 127 TO 140 KNOTS. TC 04S IS TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO
RE-CURVE AFTER TAU 36. TC BRUCE SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AFTER TAU 60 AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS
THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND
TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD-CORE LOW. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. TC
04S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY NEAR TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). RAPID WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 36 DUE TO COLD SST AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 220300Z AND 221500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S
(AMARA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20131222 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 16.9S 80.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 80.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 19.3S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 22.0S 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 25.1S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 27.5S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 30.3S 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 79.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 734 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS AN INTENSE SYSTEM WITH A SYMMETRIC
WALL OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 30 NM EYE. BASED ON THIS EYE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 140 KNOTS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF THE SAME VALUE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
ALONG WITH ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS FAVORABLE RADIAL
OUTFLOW WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS AT LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS)
LEVELS. TC 04S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EAST AND MODIFY
THE CURRENT STEERING STR, WHICH WILL RECURVE THE SYSTEM AROUND THE
STR AXIS. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
A MORE ACCELERATED WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER TAU 24. TC BRUCE SHOULD
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AFTER TAU 48 AND SHOULD
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD-CORE LOW. DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 40
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z AND 230300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20131222 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 19.0S 78.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 78.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.7S 77.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 24.9S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 28.1S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 30.6S 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 31.9S 92.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 77.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BRUCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 785 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 04S IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY WITH DIMINISHING
DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER, A 221209Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINS OVER WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH A 27 NM
DIAMETER EYE, WHICH LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PGTW
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 115 KNOTS BASED ON THE
WEAKENING STRUCTURE. TC 04S CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 36. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 36
DUE TO COLD SST AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND TRANSITIONS INTO A
COLD-CORE LOW. TC BRUCE IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72.
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z
IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z AND 231500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20131223 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 21.6S 77.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 77.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 25.0S 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 28.2S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 31.0S 83.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 32.4S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 22.4S 77.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 921 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC
04S HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED AS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME
ASYMMETRIC WHILE A 25 NM EYE HAS PERSISTED. A 230025Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS STARTED TO THIN
ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED
TIGHTLY WRAPPED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON THIS IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105
KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT
RANGE FROM 115 TO 102 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
DECREASING ENVIRONMENT AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT DESPITE
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS NOW AT MODERATE (10 TO
20 KNOTS) LEVELS. TC BRUCE CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE
RIDGE AXIS IN THE 12 TO 24 HOURS WHILE TRACKING INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FURTHER INCREASES. EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN AT TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES
EMBEDDED INTO THE WESTERLIES AND WILL COMPLETE TRANSITION INTO A
STRONG COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 231500Z AND 240300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20131223 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 24.5S 78.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.5S 78.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 27.9S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 30.8S 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 32.4S 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 25.3S 78.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BRUCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1096 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS TC 04S HAS LOST ITS EYE, BECOME ELONGATED AND HAS
OVERALL WEAKENED. A 231154Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS STARTED TO THIN ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED TIGHTLY WRAPPED. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS WHICH
IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 65 TO
90 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 04S CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 12. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 12
DUE TO COLD SST AND INCREASING VWS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD-CORE
LOW. TC BRUCE IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 34
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND 241500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20131224 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 28.4S 79.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.4S 79.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 31.4S 83.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 33.0S 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 29.2S 80.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1333 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT AS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS WEAKENED AND
BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED. A 232311Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
CONVECTIVE BANDING THAT HAS SHALLOWED AND STARTED TO THIN ALONG THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE ALTHOUGH THE LLCC HAS REMAINED TIGHTLY WRAPPED.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE IR
ANIMATION AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 04S CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND HAS COMMENCED
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TAU 12 DUE TO COLD SSTS AND INCREASING VWS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND TRANSITIONS INTO A
COLD-CORE LOW. TC BRUCE IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 24.
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 241500Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20131224 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) FINAL WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) FINAL WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 31.6S 83.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.6S 83.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 33.0S 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 31.9S 84.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BRUCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1594 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS ACCELERATED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
26 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, RAPIDLY DECAYING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SHALLOW DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO
THE SOUTHEAST. DUE TO COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES, TC 04S IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW
IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 241200Z IS 15 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_bruce_jtwc_advisories.htm
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