Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone CHRISTINE : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2013-2014 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone CHRISTINE Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20131227 07:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3S 122.3E TO 17.8S 118.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
270700Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.1S
120.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6S
123.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 120.9E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ENHANCED DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING
OVER A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 270542Z NOAA-19
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC. A 270044Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED 25 TO 30 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH WEAKER
WINDS IN THE CENTER. A RECENT OBSERVATION REPORT FROM BROWSE ISLAND
INDICATES A PRESSURE FALL OF 4 MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE NEAR 1001 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. A WARM
SEA SURFACE, WITH TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 30 DEGREES CELSIUS, ALSO
FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280730Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20131228 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 15.6S 120.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 120.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 16.5S 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 17.4S 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 18.4S 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.8S 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 23.2S 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 25.8S 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 120.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 306 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT FORMATIVE BANDS, ALTHOUGH STILL FRAGMENTED,
HAVE DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION
WITH POOR CONFIDENCE, GIVEN THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND IS
SUPPORTED BY THE 280600Z DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM APRF. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL
HIGH (STH) IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW INDUCED
BY THE SAME STH, IS EASILY OFFSETTING THE VWS AND SUSTAINING THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
AROUND THE STH TOWARDS PORT HEDLAND BEFORE RECURVING SOUTHEASTWARD,
MAKING LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST OF LEARMONTH SHORTLY AFTER
TAU 48. REMNANTS OF THE CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY ERODE DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE
IS IN LOOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO WITH GFDN AS THE
WESTWARD OUTLIER. THE JTWC FORECAST IS LAID CLOSE BUT SLIGHTLY EAST
OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z,
290300Z AND 290900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 270721Z DEC 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 270730). //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20131228 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 16.2S 120.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 120.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 17.1S 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 18.0S 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.2S 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.7S 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 24.4S 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 26.9S 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 120.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CHRISTINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE DEPTH AS THE
FEEDER BANDS HAVE BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND HAVE CLOSED IN ON A
RAGGED AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 281012Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE PASS WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM APRF AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH
(STH) IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). HOWEVER, A STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW INDUCED BY THE
SAME STH, IS EASILY OFFSETTING THE VWS AND SUSTAINING THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
AROUND THE STH TOWARDS PORT HEDLAND BEFORE RECURVING SOUTHEASTWARD,
MAKING LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY 190 NM EAST OF LEARMONTH AROUND TAU 48.
AFTER LANDFALL, REMNANTS OF TC CHRISTINE WILL GRADUALLY ERODE DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN WHICH
REMAINS THE WESTWARD OUTLIER. THE JTWC FORECAST IS LAID WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE
UNLIKELY WIDE TURN THAT IS BEING FORECAST BY GFDN. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20131228 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 16.3S 120.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 120.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 17.2S 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 18.1S 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.2S 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 20.7S 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 24.9S 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 27.8S 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 120.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CHRISTINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 261 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH
DEEPENING CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 281827Z SSMI MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS AN IMPROVING SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE FEEDER
BANDS SPIRALING OUT FROM THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION AND SSMI IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. A
RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATES A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC
SURROUNDED BY 45 KNOT WIND BARBS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SCATTEROMETRY PASS
AS WELL AS CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
APRF. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 05S IS JUST WEST OF A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH (STH) IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, INDUCED BY THE SAME STH, IS EASILY OFFSETTING THE VWS AND
SUSTAINING THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE STH TOWARDS PORT HEDLAND BEFORE
RECURVING SOUTHEASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY 210 NM EAST
OF LEARMONTH AROUND TAU 48. AFTER LANDFALL, REMNANTS OF TC CHRISTINE
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND DISSIPATE BY TAU
96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF GFDN WHICH REMAINS THE WESTWARD OUTLIER. THE JTWC
FORECAST IS LAID WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE UNLIKELY WIDE TURN THAT IS BEING FORECAST BY
GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20131229 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 16.6S 120.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 120.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 17.7S 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 18.7S 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.2S 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 22.2S 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 26.8S 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 120.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM
WITH DEEPENING CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 282330Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN IMPROVING SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE
FEEDER BANDS SPIRALING OUT FROM THE LARGE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION AND SSMIS IMAGE WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED
ON CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 05S IS JUST WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH (STH)
IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS AIDING THE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 05S
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE STH
TOWARDS PORT HEDLAND BEFORE RECURVING SOUTHEASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL
APPROXIMATELY 220 NM EAST OF LEARMONTH AROUND TAU 36. AFTER
LANDFALL, REMNANTS OF TC CHRISTINE WILL GRADUALLY ERODE DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN WHICH REMAINS THE
WESTWARD OUTLIER. THE JTWC FORECAST IS LAID WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE UNLIKELY WIDE
TURN THAT IS BEING FORECAST BY GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 290000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z
AND 300300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20131229 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 17.1S 119.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 119.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 18.1S 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.4S 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.1S 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 23.2S 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 26.4S 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 119.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CHRISTINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 202 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AS
THE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM BROOME
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, APRF, AND KNES, AND IS SUPPORTED BY
NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 05S IS
JUST WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH (STH) IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS ARE SUSTAINING THE DEEP
CONVECTION. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
AROUND THE STH TOWARDS PORT HEDLAND BEFORE RECURVING SOUTHEASTWARD,
MAKING LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY 225 NM EAST OF LEARMONTH BEFORE TAU 36.
AFTER LANDFALL, REMNANTS OF TC CHRISTINE WILL GRADUALLY ERODE DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN WHICH
REMAINS THE WESTWARD OUTLIER. THE JTWC FORECAST IS LAID WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE
UNLIKELY WIDE TURN THAT IS BEING FORECAST BY GFDN. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
291500Z, 292100Z,300300Z AND 300900Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20131229 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 17.7S 119.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 119.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 18.8S 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.5S 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 22.2S 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 24.4S 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 27.7S 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 119.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CHRISTINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 161 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY
DEEPENED; OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM BROOME SHOWING A
NEARLY COMPLETE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, APRF AND KNES RANGING FROM 50 TO 65 KNOTS
AND IS SUPPORTED BY A WIND OBSERVATION OF 52 KNOTS FROM ROWLEY
SHOALS, APPROXIMATELY 20 NM TO THE NORTHWEST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 05S IS JUST WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH (STH) IN AN AREA
OF LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS THAT ARE SUSTAINING THE DEEP CONVECTION. TC 05S IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE STH TOWARDS PORT
HEDLAND BEFORE RECURVING SOUTHEASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY
220 NM EAST OF LEARMONTH BEFORE AROUND TAU 24. AFTER LANDFALL,
REMNANTS OF TC CHRISTINE WILL GRADUALLY ERODE DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN WHICH
REMAINS THE WESTWARD OUTLIER. THE JTWC FORECAST IS LAID WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE
UNLIKELY WIDE TURN THAT IS BEING FORECAST BY GFDN. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S
(SIX) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20131229 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 18.4S 119.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 119.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.6S 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.2S 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 23.2S 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 25.4S 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 119.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 119 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO
SLIGHTLY DEEPEN; OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, ON A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM PORT
HEDLAND SHOWING A COMPLETE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ON
THE LOW END OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77
KNOTS AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 29/18Z WIND OBSERVATION OF 58 KTS FROM
BEDOUT ISLAND, APPROXIMATELY 55 NM SOUTH OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 05S IS JUST WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH (STH)
IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG WESTWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS THAT ARE SUSTAINING THE DEEP CONVECTION.
TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE STH
TOWARDS PORT HEDLAND BEFORE RECURVING SOUTHEASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL
APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST OF LEARMONTH BEFORE TAU 24. AFTER LANDFALL,
REMNANTS OF TC CHRISTINE WILL GRADUALLY ERODE DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THUS THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST, WHICH IS LAID SLIGHTLY EAST OF AND FASTER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET A KNOWN HISTORICAL BIAS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z,
300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20131230 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 18.8S 118.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 118.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.0S 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.7S 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 24.0S 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 26.1S 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 118.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM
NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO
SLIGHTLY DEEPEN AND A BROAD 35 NM CLOUD-FILLED EYE FEATURE HAS
BECOME APPARENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE, ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI ANIMATION AND A COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP FROM PORT HEDLAND SHOWING A COMPLETE CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN CONGRUENT DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON A 30/00Z
WIND OBSERVATION OF 57 KTS FROM BEDOUT ISLAND, APPROXIMATELY 35 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 05S IS JUST
WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH (STH) IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS THAT ARE
SUSTAINING THE DEEP CONVECTION. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE STH TOWARDS PORT HEDLAND BEFORE
RECURVING SOUTHEASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST
OF LEARMONTH JUST AFTER TAU 12. AFTER LANDFALL, REMNANTS OF TC
CHRISTINE WILL GRADUALLY ERODE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND DISSIPATE
BY TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THUS
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST, WHICH IS LAID
SLIGHTLY EAST OF AND FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET
A KNOWN HISTORICAL BIAS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z
IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20131230 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 19.6S 118.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 118.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.2S 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 23.3S 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 25.6S 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 118.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CHRISTINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 43 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINED A
RELATIVELY SYMMETRICAL PROFILE AS IT APPROACHED THE WESTERN COAST.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, ON A TIGHT
CIRCULATION ON A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM DAMPIER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM APRF AND SUPPORTED BY
NEARBY WIND OBSERVATIONS, INCLUDING THOSE FROM THE ISLAND OF BEDOUT
THAT WENT THROUGH AN EYEWALL PASSAGE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
TC 05S IS JUST WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH (STH) IN AN AREA OF LOW
(5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO INDICATE GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD
BIAS. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO DIP SOUTH AND MAKE LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY
210 NM EAST OF LEARMONTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL,
REMNANTS OF TC CHRISTINE WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AND RAPIDLY
ERODE THEN DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST, WHICH IS LAID SLIGHTLY EAST OF AND
FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET A KNOWN HISTORICAL
BIAS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20131230 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 20.4S 117.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 117.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 22.4S 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 24.7S 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 27.1S 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 117.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CHRISTINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM
WEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A 24 NM SYMMETRICAL
EYE NEAR LANDFALL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE, ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND ON A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM
DAMPIER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM
APRF. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 05S IS JUST WEST OF A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH (STH) IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE IMMINENT LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY 195 NM EAST OF LEARMONTH. AFTER
LANDFALL, REMNANTS OF TC CHRISTINE WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
RAPIDLY ERODE THEN DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
301200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND
311500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20131230 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) FINAL WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) FINAL WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 21.1S 117.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 117.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 23.2S 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 25.5S 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 27.9S 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 117.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CHRISTINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 97 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND AS TC 05S MOVES OVER
LAND; HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS RETAINED A 20-NM DIAMETER EYE. RADAR
IMAGERY FROM DAMPIER, AUSTRALIA SHOWS THE SYSTEM MADE LANDFALL NEAR
301400Z AND TRACKED OVER ROEBOURNE AIRPORT, WHICH REPORTED MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE WINDS OF 71 KNOTS GUSTING TO 93 KNOTS WITH A
MINIMUM SLP OF 958 MB. TC CHRISTINE IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND RAPIDLY ERODE THEN DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST DUE TO
THE TIGHT GROUPING OF DYNAMIC MODELS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_christine_jtwc_advisories.htm
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