Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone GILLIAN : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2013-2014 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone GILLIAN Track Map and Data |
WTPS22 PGTW 20140308 04:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.8S 139.0E TO 12.3S 142.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 080000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.1S 139.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8S
138.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1S 139.6E, APPROXIMATELY 210
NORTHEAST OF GOVE AIRPORT, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. A 072251z SSMIS ADDITIONALLY SHOWS RAPIDLY IMPROVING
STRUCTURE WITH FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS AND A CONSOLIDATING
LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
HIGHLY DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
090400Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20140308 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080352Z MAR 2014//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 11.3S 140.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S 140.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 12.1S 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 12.6S 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 13.1S 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 14.1S 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 15.0S 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 15.6S 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 16.2S 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 11.5S 140.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF GOVE AIRPORT, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHILE DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE
SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 080842Z WINDSAT CORIOLIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS THE LLCC HAS BECOME TIGHTER WRAPPED WHILE CONVECTIVE
BANDS HAVE BECOME MORE DEFINED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON
THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED UPON THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE AND
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE SAME VALUE FROM PGTW AND ADRM.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH
IS BEING OFFSET BY EASTERLY AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 17P IS
CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. THIS WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALTHOUGH AFTER TAU 48, SOME
WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA WHICH WILL
CAUSE A SLIGHT DEFLECTION OF THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THE
MODERATE TO STRONG VWS IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY RELAX AS THE SYSTEM
DRIFTS SOUTH WHICH, COUPLED WITH THE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
TO A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS. THE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS WIDELY SPREAD
WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS THAT RANGE FROM TRACKING THE SYSTEM SLOWLY TO
THE SOUTH, TO THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO THE
CAPE YORK PENINSULA IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. DUE TO THIS, THE FORECAST
TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 8 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z AND 091500Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 080351Z MAR 14
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS22 PGTW 080400).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20140309 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 12.8S 140.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 140.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 13.5S 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 14.1S 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 14.7S 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 15.2S 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 16.1S 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 16.4S 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 140.3E.
TROPICAL (TC) CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 22 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 6 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME PARTLY
EXPOSED AS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BECAME SLIGHTLY DISPLACED
POLEWARD. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE DEPTH AND
DEGREE OF WRAP. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION
AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES WITH POOR CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT)
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
IS ENHANCING THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 24, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE TC 17P WESTWARD
TOWARDS LANDFALL. TC GILLIAN WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 DUE TO
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL INITIALLY OFFSET
THE HIGH VWS AND FAVOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 50 KNOTS BY
TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT BUT
THE SPREAD IS STILL SIGNIFICANT WITH GFS AS THE NOTABLE EASTWARD
OUTLIER. DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z AND 100300Z. //
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20140309 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 12.8S 140.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 140.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 13.4S 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 14.0S 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 14.6S 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 15.0S 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 15.7S 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 16.2S 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 140.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLCC) THAT HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED WHILE THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE IR ANIMATION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE DEFINED NATURE
OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS
BASED ON THE TIGHTLY WRAPPING NATURE OF THE LLCC AS DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES HAVE FALLEN TO 30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS SEEN IN ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
THE SYSTEM HAS TAKEN A SLIGHT EASTERLY JOG AS IT TRACKS ALONG A WEAK
EXTENSION OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
AFTER TAU 24, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED
TO ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE TC 17P WESTWARD TOWARDS LANDFALL. TC
GILLIAN WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AFTER
LANDFALL. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
WILL OFFSET THE HIGH VWS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
AND FAVORS SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 50 KNOTS BY TAU
48. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT BUT THE
SPREAD IS STILL SIGNIFICANT WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS IN THE TRACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST. DUE TO THIS SPREAD, LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z AND 101500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20140310 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 13.5S 141.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 141.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 14.1S 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 14.5S 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 15.0S 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 15.5S 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 16.3S 138.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 16.5S 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 141.6E.
TROPICAL (TC) CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM WEIPA INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MADE LANDFALL INTO THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
YORK PENINSULA. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE IMAGERY
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A
SCATTEROMETRY PASS BEFORE LANDFALL. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO
STRONG (20-30 KNOT) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER,
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS SEEN IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY,
CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE WAYWARD CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS
EXPECTED TO ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE TC 17P WESTWARD TOWARDS
LANDFALL. TC GILLIAN WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS AFTER LANDFALL. THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO OFFSET
THE HIGH VWS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND INDUCE
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 50 KNOTS BY TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT BUT THE SPREAD IS STILL
SIGNIFICANT WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS IN THE TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. DUE
TO THIS SPREAD, LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P
(EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20140310 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 005
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 14.4S 141.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 141.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 14.8S 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 15.3S 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 15.7S 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 16.0S 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 16.0S 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.3S 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.2S 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 140.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
DEPICTS TC 17P HAS BECOME VERY ILL-DEFINED AND SLOPPY AS THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME VERY HARD TO DEFINE AND THE CONVECTION
HAS BECOME HIGHLY DISORGANIZED. A 101106Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE
SHOWS SOME SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING LOOSELY WRAPPING WHILE THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE IS POORLY RECOGNIZABLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED UPON THIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND WAS ADDITIONALLY AIDED BY
POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED AT 35 KNOTS DUE TO A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
THE SAME VALUE FROM PGTW AND IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE KNES AND
ADRM ESTIMATE WHICH HAS DROPPED TO 30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (20 TO 25
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND FAIR EASTERLY OUTFLOW. TC 17P
IS SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA. IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA WHICH WILL TAKE TC GILLIAN ON A MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY FROM LAND AND VWS SLIGHTLY RELAXES THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER
WHICH, TC 17P IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST AND START TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE LAND INTERACTION. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS WIDELY SPREAD AND HIGHLY ERRATIC THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DUE TO THIS, THE FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 101200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z AND 111500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (HADI) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20140311 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) FINAL WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) FINAL WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 141.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 141.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 15.9S 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 141.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 162 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED
AS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS OVER LAND. RADAR IMAGERY
FROM MORNINGTON SHOWS VERY BROAD AND WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING OFF THE
EASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW WEAK WINDS RANGING FROM 8 TO 10 KNOTS. DUE TO THE
DISORGANIZATION, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. HOWEVER, AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE GULF WITH MODERATE TROPICAL
CYCLONE INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THEREFORE, THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 8 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (HADI) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS21 PGTW 20140321 02:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.1S 110.4E TO 12.7S 102.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
210030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.0S
109.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9S
114.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 109.0E, APPROXIMATELY 266 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 202207Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS IMPROVED TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONAL, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THIS AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO IMPROVING CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
220230Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140321 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 9.6S 108.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S 108.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 10.0S 105.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 10.6S 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 11.7S 103.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 13.0S 102.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.4S 101.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.6S 100.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 18.9S 99.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 9.7S 107.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 834 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED AS IT TRACKED
AWAY FROM LAND WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED CENTER, THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN REGENERATED. A
210713Z NOAA-19 IMAGE DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED CENTRAL
CONVECTION. A 210045Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION
WITH 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE ASCAT DATA BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM APRF. TC 17P IS TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG A THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR); HOWEVER, THE STR IS FORECAST TO ERODE
QUICKLY AS A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS, CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY WEST OF AUSTRALIA. CONSEQUENTLY, TC 17P WILL TURN
SOUTHWARD AND TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH
TAU 96. TC 17P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 DUE TO
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM SST (29 TO 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS). AFTER TAU 72, TC 17P SHOULD WEAKEN, DUE TO COOLING SST AND
STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE,
WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO TURN THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY ON A WESTWARD TRACK.
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND
220900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140321 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 10.0S 106.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S 106.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 10.4S 104.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 11.2S 103.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 12.3S 102.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 13.6S 101.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 15.2S 101.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.3S 99.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.7S 96.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 10.1S 105.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 870 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED BANDING
FEEDING FROM THE EASTERN FLANK. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A 211419Z
AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR
ANIMATION AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW,
KNES, AND APRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 05
DEGREES SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. IN THE NEAR TERM, TC
17P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU
24, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL WEAKEN
THE STR AND CAUSE THE TC TO DRIFT ON A MORE SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY.
NEAR TAU 72, A SECONDARY STR TRAILING THE TROUGH WILL ASSUME STEERING
AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE WESTWARD. THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS
- IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES - ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS, CONTRIBUTING TO THE SYSTEMS GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 90 KNOTS. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS WILL
SLOWLY ERODE THE CYCLONE. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS
LAID JUST WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z AND 222100Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140322 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 10.3S 105.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.3S 105.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 11.2S 103.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 12.3S 103.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 13.4S 102.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 14.3S 102.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.7S 101.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 16.6S 99.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 17.1S 95.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 10.5S 104.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 890 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TC 17P HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS CONVECTIVE
BANDING HAS IMPROVED AND BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC WHILE THE LLCC HAS
BECOME MORE DEFINED. A 220401Z TRMM 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A
DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE WHILE THE BANDING HAS STARTED TO WRAP
TIGHTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS DEDUCED FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS BASED UPON THE INCREASING STRUCTURE SEEN
IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY ALONG WITH CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND APRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE
SYSTEM IS CLOSE TO THE RIDGE AXIS WITH FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND LOW (10
TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 17P HAS STARTED TO SLOW
AND TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC
GILLIAN IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG THE
MODIFYING STR, WHILE INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU
72, ANOTHER STR IS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
AND WILL ASSUME STEERING, MOVING TC 17P IN A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY. AS
THE STR DRIVES THE SYSTEM WEST, INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING
OUTFLOW WILL INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
LOOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK WITH SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE
WESTWARD TRACK IN THE LATER TAUS. DUE TO THIS, THE FORECAST TRACK IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 222100Z AND 230900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140322 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 12.3S 104.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 104.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 13.6S 103.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 15.0S 103.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 16.1S 102.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.0S 101.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.1S 100.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.7S 99.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 18.7S 98.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 104.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
EAST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY AND SIGNIFICANTLY
DEEPENED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AND HAS DEVELOPED AN 18-NM SYMMETRIC
EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, APRF, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS DIRECTLY BENEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A
STRONG POLEWARD BIAS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 36, A WEAK MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN TO A MORE
POLEWARD DIRECTION. NEAR TAU 72. A SECONDARY STR TRAILING THE TROUGH
WILL NUDGE A GREATLY-WEAKENED TC 17P WESTWARD. THE FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE NEAR TERM, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM
TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER, PEAKING AT 120 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 36, INCREASING
VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE THE SYSTEM, WITH RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER TAU 72. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD AFTER TAU 48,
LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST
THAT IS LAID SLOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND 232100Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140323 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 13.7S 103.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 103.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 15.2S 103.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 16.3S 102.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.3S 102.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 18.2S 101.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.5S 100.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 20.2S 98.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 103.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 790 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS TC GILLION HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY
DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE SYSTEM AS THE CONVECTION HAS IMPROVED AROUND
A 15NM SLIGHTLY IRREGULAR EYE. A 230305Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
A THICK RING OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL WITH IMPROVED BANDING
IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE EYE FEATURE
IN THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 110 KTS BASED ON AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
THAT RANGE FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE SYSTEM WHICH IS PROVIDING LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VIGOROUS POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC
17P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT POSITIONED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC GILLION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG
THIS STR THROUGH TAU 36 UNTIL A WEAK MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WELL TO THE
SOUTH WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW
DOWN. AFTER TAU 24, A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS VWS
INCREASES FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH. AFTER TAU 48, A SECONDARY STR
TRAILING THE TROUGH, WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN TO MOVE A
WEAKENING TC 17P WESTWARD. VWS WILL GREATLY INCREASE AFTER TAU 48 AS
THE SYSTEM SWITCHES STEERING INFLUENCES AND WILL INDUCE A RAPID
WEAKENING TREND WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BELOW WARNING
THRESHOLD BY TAU 96. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SPREAD, BUT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC AND NAVGEM, GENERALLY SUPPORTS THE
WESTWARD TRACK IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DUE TO THIS, THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 31 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140323 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 15.4S 103.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 103.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 16.8S 103.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 18.1S 103.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 19.1S 103.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.2S 103.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.7S 103.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 22.9S 103.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 23.4S 102.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 103.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 730 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM, TYPICAL OF VERY INTENSE
CYCLONES WITH CENTRAL WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 120 KNOTS, HAS
UNDERGONE AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT AS THE GEOMETRIC EYE CONTRACTED DOWN
TO 12 NM IN DIAMETER. THIS IS READILY APPARENT ON A 231756Z 85GHZ
TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE. HOWEVER, THE EIR LOOP ALSO SHOWS THAT
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT HAS BEGUN TO ELONGATE AND
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK - AS EVIDENCED BY THE SHARP
OUTLINE - HAS COMMENCED. THIS IS AN INDICATION THAT THE CYCLONE HAS
PEAKED INTENSITY AS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST HAS BEGUN TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON CONGRUENT AND COLLOCATED DVORAK FIXES FROM
PGTW AND KNES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC
17P HAS MOVED FURTHER AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS INTO A MODERATE (15-20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AREA. HOWEVER, A STRONG SOUTHEASTWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS SUSTAINING THE SUPER DEEP CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STR, THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY EVEN TRACK ON A
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY. AFTER TAU 72, A SECONDARY STR
TRAILING THE TROUGH WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE A GREATLY-WEAKENED
TC 17P WESTWARD. TC GILLIAN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS VWS
INCREASES CONCURRENT TO ITS POLEWARD TRACK. NEAR TAU 72. THE SYSTEM
WILL RAPIDLY DECAY AS VWS SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFIES (OVER 50 KNOTS), IN
PART DUE THE STORM MOTION TURNING AGAINST THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW.
THE MODEL TRACK CONSENSUS HAS SWUNG TO A MORE EASTWARD TRAJECTORY
OVER THE PAST 4 RUNS AS MORE MEMBERS HAVE ADJUSTED TO A STRONGER
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. GFDN AND JGSM RETAIN AN EARLY WESTWARD TRACK AND
ARE NOW THE OUTLIERS. THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS NOTICEABLY
MORE EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY; IT IS LAID JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
231800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140324 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 17.2S 103.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 103.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 18.7S 103.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 20.2S 103.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 21.6S 103.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 22.3S 103.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 22.9S 102.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 23.4S 100.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 103.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 672 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT TC 17P HAS PEAKED AND HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN AS THE
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT HAS STARTED TO CONTRACT AND
THE CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT HAS CONTINUED TO
ELONGATE OUT, WHILE THE EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME CLOUD FILLED. A
240208Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE ADDITIONALLY SHOWS THE WEAKENING TREND
AS THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO
ELONGATE WHILE THE BANDING HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED, DESPITE THE
INNER MOST EYEWALL REMAINING DEFINED. THE TRMM IMAGE ALSO SUGGESTS
THE VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO TILT AS THE EYE
FEATURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF
THE EYE FEATURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD FILLED EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP, TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LOW LEVEL DISPLACEMENT, AND IS LOCATED NEAR THE
POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
DECREASED TO 120 KNOTS BASED UPON THE WEAKENING STRUCTURE AND
FALLING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT
AS NOW STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) LEVELS OF NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) ARE STARTING TO OFFSET THE POSITIVE EFFECTS OF THE
SOUTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC GILLION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT
CONTINUES TO BE SEVERELY WEAKENED BY STRONG VWS AND SUBSIDENCE FROM
AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AS THIS TROUGH WEAKENS THE STR,
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY EVEN TRACK
ERRATICALLY. AFTER TAU 48, A SECONDARY STR TRAILING THE TROUGH WILL
ASSUME STEERING BY TAU 72 AND DRIVE THE WEAKENED TC 17P WESTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DECAY AFTERWARDS, AS VWS SIGNIFICANTLY
AMPLIFIES (OVER 50 KNOTS), IN PART DUE THE STORM MOTION TURNING
AGAINST THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BELOW
WARNING THRESHOLD (35 KNOTS) BY TAU 96. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME
SEVERELY BIFURCATED AND ERRATIC WITH OVER A 300NM DIFFERENCE IN
SOLUTIONS BY TAU 36. DUE TO THIS, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
POSITIONED NEAR MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND FAVORED TOWARDS THE GFS
SOLUTION, WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT. DUE TO THIS LARGE
SPREAD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST, WHICH IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND PHILOSOPHY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z AND
250900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140324 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 18.7S 103.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 103.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 19.7S 103.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.7S 104.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 21.7S 104.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 22.5S 104.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 23.3S 103.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 103.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 618 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE REMAINS
ELONGATED WITH WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVER A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 241701Z TRMM
COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO A
WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90
KNOTS IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND APRF. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (30+ KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), IMPACTING THE STRUCTURE. TC GILLIAN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT
CONTINUES TO BE SEVERELY WEAKENED BY STRONG VWS AND SUBSIDENCE FROM
AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AS THIS TROUGH WEAKENS THE STR,
TC 17P WILL BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY QUASI-STATIONARY
MOVEMENT AND TRACK ERRATICALLY. AFTER TAU 48, A SECONDARY STR
TRAILING THE TROUGH WILL ASSUME STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND WILL DRIVE
TC 17P WESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER,
TC GILLIAN IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DECAY AS VWS SIGNIFICANTLY
AMPLIFIES (40+ KNOTS) LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72 OR EVEN
SOONER. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A BIFURCATING SCENARIO AMONG
MODEL TRACKERS, SHOWING BOTH WESTWARD AND EASTWARD TRACKS BY TAU
36. AVAILABLE TRACKERS INCLUDING GFDN, NVGM, AND CTCX INDICATE AN
EASTWARD RACK TOWARD THE WESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS POSITIONED NEAR MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND FAVORED
TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION, WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MOVEMENT AND THIS LARGE SPREAD IN THE NEAR
TERM, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250900Z AND 252100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140325 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 19.6S 103.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 103.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.4S 103.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 20.7S 102.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 103.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 594 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON A 250532Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 250519Z AMSR2 PASS. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBER
ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW. TC 17P HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INDUCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 17P IS
CURRENTLY MOVING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TURN WESTWARD WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AS IT CONTINUES TO
RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, AND PASSAGE OVER MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL INDUCE DISSIPATION EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED, WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS FALLING BELOW THE WARNING
THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, WHICH LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 252100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140325 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) FINAL WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) FINAL WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 21.0S 103.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 103.5E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 21.9S 102.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
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REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 103.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 596 NM
WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE DEPICTS DIMINISHING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVER A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, AS EVIDENT IN A
251519Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE. A 251518Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A 35 TO
40 KNOT CIRCULATION, WHICH SUPPORT THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT.
HOWEVER, STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, AND PASSAGE
OVER MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TC
17P, LEADING TO DISSIPATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE
MODELS GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 251800Z IS 16 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_gillian_jtwc_advisories.htm
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