Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone IAN : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2013-2014 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone IAN Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PHNC 20140105 02:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.8S 176.0W TO 22.4S 175.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
050200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.4S
176.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.6S
175.3W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4S 176.0W, APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
OBSCURING A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 042135Z METOP-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SLOWLY-
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A
042040Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30
KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
060230Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140105 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 175.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 175.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.0S 175.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.1S 175.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.2S 175.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 19.2S 175.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.1S 176.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.1S 176.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.3S 176.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 175.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING, SMALL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER, THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION.
A 051656Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS A 60-NM DIAMETER, ASYMMETRIC AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. DESPITE THE LACK OF A STRONG
OUTFLOW CHANNEL, TC 07P HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND
IS NOW ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM KNES AND FMEE. TC 07P IS TRACKING
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A VERY SLOW AND
PERHAPS QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE
STR IS FORECAST TO BUILD POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM, PROVIDING A
WESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORTLIVED AS A
DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES NEAR TAU 96 AND DEEPENS, HALTING
THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT AND TURNING THE SYSTEM POLEWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT DUE TO THE POOR INITIALIZATION OF
THE SMALL SYSTEM IN COMBINATION WITH THE COMPLEX, QUICKLY-EVOLVING
SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL FIELDS
SHOW THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN SIMILAR TO THE GFS
MODEL, THE MODEL VORTEX TRACKERS REMAIN ERRATIC AND ERRONEOUS.
THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE GFS MODEL SOLUTION, WHICH
SHOWS THE MOST LOGICAL TRACK. OVERALL, HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
PROBLEMS. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50
KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DEGRADE, ESPECIALLY AFTER TAU 72 WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060900Z AND 062100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 050221Z JAN 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 050230).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140106 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 19.0S 175.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 175.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.0S 175.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.0S 176.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 19.0S 176.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 19.0S 176.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.4S 176.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.1S 176.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.1S 175.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 175.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 351 NM EAST OF
SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) ALONG WITH THE LAST
FRAMES OF MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A COMPACT
AND TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WHICH IS OBSCURING THE
EXACT POSITION OF THE LLCC. A 060322Z TRMM 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS A SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED SYSTEM WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE MICROWAVE IMAGE ALONG
THE MSI AND IR ANIMATION WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE CONVECTION
OBSCURING THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 35 KNOTS
BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF THE SAME VALUE FROM
KNES ALONG WITH NO REAL IMPROVEMENTS IN STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS ALONG WITH ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A MODERATE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY FAIR EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 07P
IS TRACKING QUASI-STATIONARY AND SLIGHTLY ERRATIC AS THIS SMALL
SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS A LOW-LEVEL
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND A LOW-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTH COMPETE FOR STEERING
INFLUENCES. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THIS WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT IS GOING TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHICH WILL
MOST LIKELY LEAD TO CONTINUED QAUSI-STATIONARY AND ERRATIC MOTION.
AFTER TAU 48, THE MODEL FIELDS INDICATE A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND AMPLIFY THE STR WHICH
WILL INDUCE A SLOW, MORE POLEWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL INITIALLY HELP INTENSIFY THE
SYSTEM AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, BUT AS THE
TROUGH DIGS IN FURTHER AND DEEPENS, THE INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. WHILE THE MAJORITY
OF THE MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN
SIMILAR TO THE GFS MODEL, THE MODEL VORTEX TRACKERS REMAIN ERRATIC
AND ERRONEOUS DUE TO POOR INITIALIZATION OF THIS SMALL SYSTEM IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE COMPLEX SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN. THEREFORE,
THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE GFS MODEL SOLUTION, WHICH SHOWS A SLOW
DRIFT WEST BEFORE MOVING POLEWARD. OVERALL, HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK BASED ON THE OVERALL WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 9 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z AND 070900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140106 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 176.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 176.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.6S 176.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 18.2S 176.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.0S 177.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.5S 176.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.7S 175.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.3S 173.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 23.9S 172.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 176.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 322 NM EAST
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) DEPICTS A
SMALL TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. A 061744Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED SYSTEM WITH THE BULK OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION AND THE SSMIS IMAGE WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON
AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO
40 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS ALONG WITH ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A MODERATE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY FAIR
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). TC 07P IS DEPICTING A SLIGHTLY ERRATIC, QUASI-STATIONARY
MOTION AS IT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
DUE TO A LOW-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A LOW-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH COMPETING FOR STEERING
CONTROL. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
PERSISTING FOR APPROXIMATELY 48 HOURS, MOST LIKELY RESULTING IN
QUASI-STATIONARY AND ERRATIC MOTION THROUGHOUT THAT TIME. DYNAMIC
MODELS DEPICT A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM NEAR
TAU 48. THE RESULTING AMPLIFICATION OF THE STR WILL INDUCE A SLOW,
POLEWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE LIFECYCLE OF THE STORM,
BUT AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND DEEPENS, THE INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN
TO ERODE THE SYSTEM. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE
EVOLVING SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN SIMILAR TO THE GFS MODEL, THE
MODEL VORTEX TRACKERS REMAIN ERRATIC DUE TO POOR INITIALIZATION OF
THE COMPACT SYSTEM IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE COMPLEX SYNOPTIC STEERING
PATTERN. THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE GFS MODEL SOLUTION,
WHICH SHOWS A SLOW DRIFT NORTHWEST BEFORE MOVING POLEWARD. OVERALL,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK BASED ON THE WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH DIVERGING MODEL
SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z AND 072100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140107 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 17.8S 176.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 176.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 17.3S 176.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.1S 175.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 17.7S 175.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 18.5S 174.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.0S 174.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.8S 173.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.9S 171.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 176.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 314 NM EAST OF
SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURAL ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES EVEN INDICATE A
SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A RECENT 062307Z
OSCAT PASS INDICATED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS
SYMMETRIC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CIRCULATION, RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW PERSISTS WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC. THE
ERRATIC TRACK FOR TC 07P WILL CONTINUE IN THE WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) TO THE NORTH AND A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA WILL TRACK OVER NEW ZEALAND AND CAUSE THE STR
TO MOVE EASTWARD. THE COMBINATION OF THE NER AND STR AROUND TAU 72
WILL CREATE AN IMPROVED STEERING ENVIRONMENT, TAKING THE TRACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IMPROVEMENT IN
THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IN THE NEAR TERM WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72, BUT AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES,
INCREASING VWS WILL CAUSE THE STRENGTHENING TO ABATE, EVENTUALLY
LEADING TO A WEAKENING TREND. MODEL TRACKERS REMAIN IN POOR
AGREEMENT DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BUT COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z AND 080900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140107 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 17.0S 176.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 176.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 16.6S 176.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.7S 176.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.1S 175.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 17.9S 175.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 20.4S 173.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 23.4S 172.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 26.9S 169.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 176.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE (IR)
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY MEANDERING SYSTEM WITH AN OVERALL IMPROVED
STRUCTURE AS THE BULK OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED. A
071730Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT AS WELL AS A WELL DEFINED CUSP
FEATURE WRAPPING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED IN THE IR ANIMATION AND SSMIS IMAGE WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS
BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND NFFN. A
RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATES A SYMMETRIC LLCC WITH 40 KNOT
WIND BARBS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT FAVORABLE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW PERSISTS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
IS BEGINNING TO DEPICT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. THE ERRATIC TRACK FOR TC 07P WILL CONTINUE DUE TO THE WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BETWEEN A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE SOUTH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA WILL TRACK OVER NEW ZEALAND AND
CAUSE THE STR TO MOVE EASTWARD NEAR TAU 36. THE REOREINTATION OF THE
NER AND STR WILL RESULT IN AN IMPROVED STEERING ENVIRONMENT, TAKING
THE TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IMPROVEMENTS IN THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IN THE NEAR TERM WILL
ALLOW FOR A MODERATE INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72, BUT AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES, INCREASING VWS WILL CAUSE THE STRENGTHENING TO
ABATE, EVENTUALLY LEADING TO A WEAKENING TREND. MODEL TRACKERS
REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BUT
COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. OVERALL, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140108 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 16.8S 177.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 177.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.5S 176.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.1S 176.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.2S 175.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 19.3S 174.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 22.3S 173.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 26.6S 171.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 32.2S 168.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 176.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED WITH
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND NFFN HAVE BEEN STEADY OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS, BUT DUE TO THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION THE
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS. A RECENT 2358Z GCOM 36H
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE, SUPPORTING THE
INCREASE IN INTENSITY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT FAVORABLE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW PERSISTS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
IS BEGINNING TO DEPICT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. THE ERRATIC TRACK FOR TC 07P WILL CONTINUE DUE TO THE WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BETWEEN A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE SOUTH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA WILL TRACK OVER NEW ZEALAND AND
CAUSE THE STR TO MOVE EASTWARD NEAR TAU 24. THE REORIENTATION OF THE
NER AND STR WILL RESULT IN AN IMPROVED STEERING ENVIRONMENT, TAKING
THE TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IMPROVEMENTS IN THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IN THE NEAR TERM WILL
ALLOW FOR INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72, BUT AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES, INCREASING VWS WILL CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND TO BEGIN,
AND THE EVENTUAL START OF AN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS, BUT DUE TO THE CURRENTLY
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS LOW.MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
082100Z AND 090900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140108 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 16.7S 176.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 176.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 16.9S 176.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 17.5S 175.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.7S 174.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 20.2S 173.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 23.2S 172.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 26.9S 171.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 30.8S 168.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 176.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 287 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. A 081717Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING TIGHTLY
WRAPPED INTO AN APPARENT MICROWAVE EYE, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60
KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 77 KNOTS FROM
PGTW AND KNES. TC 07P IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND
A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH, RESULTING IN THE QUASI-
STATIONARY MOVEMENT. AFTER TAU 24, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA, DOMINATING THE STEERING PATTERN AND ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. IN ADDITION TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) WILL FURTHER SUPPORT A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS. BY TAU 72, TC 07P IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, ENCOUNTERING
STRONGER VWS AND COOLER SST. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. DUE
TO THE CURRENTLY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN FORECAST TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LATER TAUS, LENDING A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140109 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 16.8S 176.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 176.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 17.1S 176.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 17.9S 175.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 18.8S 174.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.3S 173.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 23.4S 172.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 26.9S 171.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 30.7S 167.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 176.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 302 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS THE SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE A PERIOD
OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. ALTHOUGH TC 07P REMAINS A COMPACT SYSTEM,
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT HAS ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL-DEFINED EYE
FEATURE. A RECENT 090552Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS INDICATES A PINHOLE
EYE REMAINS AND HAS BEEN USED IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS THE TRACK HAS STARTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
APPEARS TO BE BECOMING MORE ENGAGED BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER NEW ZEALAND,
WEAKENING THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH OF TC 07P. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE STR,
EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE NER CAUSING AN INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED
FOR TC 07P AROUND TAU 36 TO 48. IN THE LATER TAUS, INTERACTION WITH
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND BY TAU
72. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96.
AS THE CURRENT POSITIONING ALIGNS WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, THERE
HAS BEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE CONFIDENCE FOR THE FORECAST TRACK,
BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO THE RECENT NATURE OF THE
TRACK CHANGES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140109 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 17.1S 175.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 175.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 17.8S 175.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 18.7S 174.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 19.8S 173.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 21.3S 173.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.6S 172.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 29.0S 169.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 34.2S 164.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 175.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM EAST
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE. A 091704Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY
CURVED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER; THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90
KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND PHFO. TC 07P
IS LOCATED IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHEAST, RESULTING IN A SLOW MOVEMENT. IN THE NEAR TERM, A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA, DOMINATING THE STEERING
PATTERN AND ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW
EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN ADDITION TO THE FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) WILL
FURTHER SUPPORT A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BY TAU 72, TC 07P IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS
ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, ENCOUNTERING STRONGER VWS AND COOLER SST.
TC 07P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU
96 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. DUE TO THE CURRENTLY WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND THE SLIGHT SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKERS,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN JTWC FORECAST OVERALL. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
00900Z AND 102100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140110 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 18.0S 175.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 175.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 18.9S 174.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.3S 174.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 21.8S 173.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 23.2S 173.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 26.1S 172.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 29.4S 170.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 33.9S 163.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 174.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 371 NM EAST OF
SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS TC 07P
HAS STARTED TO STEADILY TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) AS IT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM TO THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF TC 07P. MSI ALSO SHOWS THE EYE HAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
AND CLEARED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF TC 07P HAS
ENHANCED THE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND HAS ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN AS AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). IN ADDITION TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS,
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) WILL FURTHER SUPPORT A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY TAU 72, TC 07P
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS ON A SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK, ENCOUNTERING STRONGER VWS AND COOLER SSTS. TC 07P IS FORECAST
TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 72 AND COMPLETE ETT
BY TAU 120. IMPROVEMENTS IN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND MODEL
GUIDANCE LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
102100Z AND 110900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140110 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 174.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 174.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.4S 174.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.0S 173.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 23.4S 173.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 25.0S 172.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 28.6S 170.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 34.1S 163.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 174.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 363 NM SOUTHWEST
OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 07P
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM TO THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 07P. THE IR
ANIMATION DEPICTS AN INTENSE, TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM WITH AN 18 NM
EYE FEATURE. A 101652Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SHARPLY
DEFINED EYEWALL WITH SEVERAL DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALING OUT
FROM THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE IN THE IR ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 120 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 115-127 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH
OF TC 07P HAS CONTINUED TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND ALLOWED
THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. IN ADDITION TO THE FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) WILL
FURTHER SUPPORT A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. BY TAU 72,
TC 07P WILL BEGIN ENCOUNTERING STRONGER VWS AND COOLER SSTS,
BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE
ETT BY TAU 96. IMPROVEMENTS IN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND MODEL
GUIDANCE LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z AND 112100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140111 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 20.5S 173.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 173.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.1S 173.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 23.7S 172.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 25.2S 172.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 26.9S 171.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 30.8S 168.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 36.1S 160.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 173.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 412 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM THAT THAT HAS FURTHER DEEPENED AND
MAINTAINED A 25-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE
ANIMATION AND LINES UP DIRECTLY WITH THE MICROWAVE EYE ON A 110526Z
SSMI-S PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, PHFO, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH HAS CONTINUED TO
ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER
INTENSIFY. IN ADDITION TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) WILL HELP MAINTAIN THIS PEAK
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY WEAKENS
DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS. THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. TC IAN IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 96. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG THE NUMERIC MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 112100Z AND 120900Z. //
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140111 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 22.4S 173.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 173.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.2S 172.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 25.8S 172.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 27.4S 171.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 29.4S 170.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 34.8S 164.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 22.9S 173.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 506 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM THAT HAS SUSTAINED ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY AS WELL AS MAINTAINED A 19-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND LINES UP WITH THE MICROWAVE EYE ON
AN 111857Z SSMI-S PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, PHFO, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH HAS
CONTINUED TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO
SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY DESPITE DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. TC IAN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS
FURTHER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS ALONG THE
POLEWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 48 AND COMPLETE THE ETT BY TAU 72 AS A COLD
CORE LOW. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE
TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG THE NUMERIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140112 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 24.5S 172.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.5S 172.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 26.6S 171.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 28.4S 170.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 30.2S 169.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 32.2S 167.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 36.9S 160.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 25.0S 172.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 618 NM SOUTH
OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS ELONGATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, AN INDICATION OF
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VIGOROUS POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN THE DEEP CONVECTION THEREBY MITIGATING
THE ERODING EFFECT OF THE VWS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE 12-NM EYE IN THE EIR ANIMATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, PHFO, AND
KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH HAS CONTINUED TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
EVEN AS IT WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC IAN IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ALSO, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 48 AND BECOME A COLD CORE LOW
BY TAU 72. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE
TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG THE NUMERIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z AND 130900Z. //
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140112 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 26.6S 171.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.6S 171.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 28.5S 170.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 30.2S 169.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 32.4S 166.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 35.4S 162.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 27.1S 171.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 739 NM
SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140113 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 29.0S 170.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.0S 170.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 30.9S 168.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 32.9S 166.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 35.4S 161.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 29.5S 169.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 882 NM
SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY ELONGATED AND SHEARED AS IT GOT
EXPOSED TO THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. ADDITIONALLY, THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE SHALLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES.
TC 07P IS APPROACHING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12 AND BECOME A COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU
36. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140113 21:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) FINAL WARNING CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 017A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 30.5S 168.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.5S 168.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 32.8S 166.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 31.1S 168.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 978 NM
SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY
DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). A 131616Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS AN EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. TC 07P HAS BEGUN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM WILL SUCCUMB TO INCREASING VWS
AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (LESS THAN 24C) AS IT COMPLETES
ETT BY TAU 12. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
BASED ON THE TIGHT GROUPING OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL TRACKERS. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 18
FEET. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CHANGED THE MANOP HEADER TO
REFLECT PGTW.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_ian_jtwc_advisories.htm
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