WTXS21 PGTW 20140404 04:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040321Z APR 14//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 040330)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.0S 80.4E TO 22.6S 81.1E WITHIN 
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF 
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA 
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 040330Z 
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 80.4E. THE 
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 
83.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 80.4E, APPROXIMATELY 620 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. A 
040010Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE 
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. 
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A GENERALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL 
TROUGH POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL 
INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 T0 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 050400Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 157.6E.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140404 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040351ZAPR2014//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041200Z --- NEAR 16.6S 79.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 79.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 19.3S 79.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 22.2S 80.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 25.7S 82.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 29.7S 85.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 35.9S 93.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (TWENTY-TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 699 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. A 
041245Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS THE PRIMARY DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND 
WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC. A 040337Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES A 
SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH NUMEROUS 25 TO 30 KNOT WIND BARBS. RECENT 
IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION AND IMPROVED 
ORGANIZATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED A 
FMEE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH 
THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A 
DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 22S IS 
TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE AXIS (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO RE-CURVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND TO 
ACCELERATE BETWEEN ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN THE STR AND THE 
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, 
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. TC 22S IS 
EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 36 AS IT 
ENCOUNTERS STRONG VWS ASSOCIATED WITH MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND 
BEGINS INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TC 22S SHOULD COMPLETE 
ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS, TRACKS OVER 
COOLER SST AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. 
DUE TO THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS, TC 22S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A 
PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z AND 
051500Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON 
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 040351Z APR 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION 
ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 040400).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140405 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 002    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050000Z --- NEAR 17.6S 81.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 81.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 20.2S 82.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 23.4S 84.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 27.1S 86.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 25 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 31.1S 90.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 81.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 806 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT 
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY, INCLUDING A 042358Z SSMIS PASS. THE 
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS SET SLIGHTLY ABOVE DVORAK SATELLITE 
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE BASED ON STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN 
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA (041654Z) SHOWING 
40 KNOT WIND BARBS NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CONVECTIVE 
STRUCTURE OF 22S HAS REMAINED GENERALLY DISORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 
12 HOURS, ALTHOUGH A SMALL PATCH OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED 
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, AS 
EVIDENT IN THE 042358Z SSMIS IMAGE. TC 22S IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD 
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. 
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE 
FORECAST PERIOD IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE 
AND A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THE 
TRACK FORECAST HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING, 
PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO A SLIGHT EASTWARD REPOSITIONING OF PAST 
BEST TRACK POSITIONS AND A LARGER EASTWARD COMPONENT IN THE LAST 12 
HOUR STORM MOTION THAN ANTICIPATED. INTERACTION WITH THE MIDLATITUDE 
SYSTEM WILL INDUCE THE FIRST PHASE OF EXTRATROPIAL TRANSITION BY TAU 
24. TRANSITION INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL LOW 
IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU 48. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS 
EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM DUE TO GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE 
OVER WARM WATER. HOWEVER, DECREASING ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR WILL HALT THE INTENSIFICATION 
TREND AFTER TAU 12. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT 
WITH THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST, WHICH LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL 
CONSENSUS, BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR 
TYPICAL MODEL FORECAST TRENDS OBSERVED DURING RECURVATURE. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 
051500Z AND 060300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140405 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (IVANOE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (IVANOE) WARNING NR 003    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051200Z --- NEAR 20.4S 82.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 82.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 23.9S 84.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 27.6S 87.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 31.8S 90.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 83.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (IVANOE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 960 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE 
SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). A 051231Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDING 
OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT 
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND SSMIS IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. 
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE 
SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 
MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD OUTFLOW. TC 
22S IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. ADDITIONALLY, TC 22S 
IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE SYSTEM, LEADING TO 
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (EET) BY TAU 12 AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE 
EET BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC 
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 14 
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z AND 061500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140406 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (IVANOE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (IVANOE) WARNING NR 004    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060000Z --- NEAR 25.5S 86.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.5S 86.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 30.0S 89.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 33.3S 92.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 26.6S 87.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (IVANOE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 995 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON 
RECENT SATELLITE POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE AND A 052347Z 
SSMIS PASS. THE INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW DVORAK 
FIX DATA AND RECENT AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. A LARGE FLARE OF 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS, ALLOWING THE 
SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THAT PERIOD. TC 22S IS 
ACCELERATING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL 
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG 
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST 
PERIOD. INTERACTION WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING TC 22S 
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL INDUCE THE FIRST PHASE OF EXTRATROPICAL 
TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE 
SHOULD ENABLE TC 22P TO NEARLY MAINTAIN INTENSITY DESPITE PASSAGE 
OVER COOLER WATER AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. BY TAU 24, THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE 
MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETE THE EXTRATROPICAL 
TRANSITION PROCESS. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE. 
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNING 
AT 061500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20140406 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (IVANOE) FINAL WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (IVANOE) FINAL WARNING NR 005    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061200Z --- NEAR 30.3S 88.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 28 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 30.3S 88.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 34.0S 91.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 31.2S 89.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (IVANOE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1664 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 
28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM THAT IS BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL 
TRANSITION (ETT) WITH SHALLOWING CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTHEAST OF AN 
EXPOSED AND ELONGATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH IS 
APPARENT IN A 161215Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE LATEST AMSU 
TEMPERATURE CROSS SECTION SHOWS A BUILDING WARM CORE ANOMALY AT THE 
SURFACE THAT IS INDICATIVE OF A FORMATIVE WARM FRONT. BASED ON THIS 
DATA, TC 22S WILL CONTINUE ETT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, BECOMING 
A COLD CORE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT 
CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z
IS 16 FEET.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_ivanoe_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]