WTPS21 PGTW 20140117 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.2S 161.3E TO 27.0S 166.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 170230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.9S 162.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: 
   THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 160.2E, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 162.8E, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEPENING FORMATIVE
BANDS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH A
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER, THE SHEAR IS EASILY OFFSET BY A ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS
EVIDENCED IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE REGION ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE
AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM AS IT DRIFTS POLEWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
180300Z.  //
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140117 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JUNE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170251ZJAN14//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JUNE) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   171200Z --- NEAR 18.3S 162.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 162.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 20.3S 163.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 22.7S 164.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 25.5S 164.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 28.3S 166.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 33.8S 171.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 163.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 294 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH A 171058Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER IS SLIGHTLY ELONGATED BUT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE
PERSISTED ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED UPON THE
CONSOLIDATING STRUCTURE AND A SPREAD OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
THAT RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST POLEWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC
JUNE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS STR WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT STEADILY DRIVES THE SYSTEM
POLEWARD TOWARDS NEW ZEALAND. TC 10P IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER
CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REACH 45 KNOTS.
AFTER TAU 36, DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VWS
WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) AT TAU 48. TC 10P IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SOME VARIANCES IN
THE EXACT TRACK AND TRANSLATIONAL SPEED AS IT MOVES POLEWARD. DUE TO
THIS, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
171200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z AND 181500Z. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI 170251Z JAN 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21
PGTW 170300).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140118 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JUNE) WARNING NR 002//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170251ZJAN14//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JUNE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 20.0S 163.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 163.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 22.5S 164.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 25.2S 165.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 28.3S 166.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 31.0S 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 35.1S 173.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 163.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 184 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 181500Z AND 190300Z.// 
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140118 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JUNE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JUNE) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181200Z --- NEAR 23.0S 165.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S 165.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 26.2S 165.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 29.2S 166.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 31.9S 168.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 34.3S 171.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 23.8S 165.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 81 NM
SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH SHALLOWING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. A 180939Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WITH FRAGMENTED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM HAS STRUGGLED TO
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO
30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION. HOWEVER, A
181121Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-
DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON
THIS ASCAT IMAGE AND IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION AND ASCAT DATA. TC
10P IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. SINCE TC 10P IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z AND
191500Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140119 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JUNE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JUNE) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190000Z --- NEAR 26.3S 165.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.3S 165.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 29.8S 167.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 32.6S 168.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 27.2S 165.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 254 NM
SOUTH OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 21
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A
182234Z METOP-A 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 182150Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 35 TO 40
KNOT WINDS, VALIDATING THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS. TC 10P IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL TURN SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
ADDITIONALLY, TC 10P IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY
TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140119 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JUNE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JUNE) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190600Z --- NEAR 27.9S 165.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.9S 165.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 31.6S 167.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 28.8S 166.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 158 NM
NORTHWEST OF KINGSTON, NORFOLK ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND IS UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE
BULK OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE HAS SHALLOWED
AS THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED OVER RELATIVELY COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SUCCUMB TO INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS IT BECOMES FURTHER EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY AND COMPLETES ETT AS A COLD CORE LOW OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 10 FEET.

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_june_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]