WTPS21 PGTW 20140319 02:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.9S 160.7W TO 24.7S 160.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 190000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.3S 160.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S
162.7W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.3S 160.4W, APPROXIMATELY 635 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER
AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 182028Z ASCAT PASS. THIS
ASCAT PASS SHOWS APPROXIMATELY 30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF
THIS DISTURBANCE, AND STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LLCC AND A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
TO THE EAST. STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER FAVOR INTENSIFICATION IN THE
NEAR TERM, PARTICULARLY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM
IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE SOUTH AND WILL LIKELY
UNDERGO TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN A DAY OR TWO.
THE DISTURBANCE IS ALREADY SHOWING SOME EARLY SIGNS OF THIS
TRANSITION, WITH THE MAJORITY OF ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AND
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. BECAUSE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 200230Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140319 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (MIKE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190221ZMAR2014//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (MIKE) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190600Z --- NEAR 20.5S 159.3W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 159.3W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 23.5S 159.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 25.4S 160.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 27.1S 161.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 29.5S 162.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 159.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (MIKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 751 NM EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION AND BROKEN
DISPLACED CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. A 190422Z 37
GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LLCC THAT IT
FAIRLY COMPACT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE IR ANIMATION
AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED STRUCTURE
SEEN IN THE SSMIS IMAGE WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WIDELY
RANGE FROM 25 TO 45 KNOTS WHICH MAY BE DUE TO THE COMPACT NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM IS IN PHASE WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. TC 20P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING QUICKLY ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. TC MIKE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE POLEWARD AND INTENSIFY IN THE NEAR TERM AS THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
PERSIST. NEAR TAU 24, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
UNFAVORABLE WHILE DRY AIR AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. THESE FACTORS WILL ADDITIONALLY BEGIN TO
TURN THE SYSTEM INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM AS THE STRONGER WINDS
MIGRATE TO THE PERIPHERY AND THE CENTRAL CORE WINDS BECOME WEAK. BY
TAU 48, TC 20P WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
AND WILL RAPIDLY TRANSITION FROM A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM INTO A COLD
CORE, EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. LIMITED NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY
SPREAD BUT OVERALL AGREES WITH THE TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED, WHICH COULD LEAD TO WEAKENING SOONER THAN
FORECAST. DUE TO THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 190230Z MAR
14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 190230).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140319 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (MIKE) FINAL WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (MIKE) FINAL WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191800Z --- NEAR 24.3S 157.9W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.3S 157.9W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 27.8S 158.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 25.2S 158.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (MIKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 618 NM
SOUTHWEST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 191925Z METOP-
B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING BROADLY
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 20P IS
ENCOUNTERING THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM WILL
SUCCUMB TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AS IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
191800Z IS 15 FEET.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_mike_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]