Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone GLENDA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2014-2015 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTXS21 PGTW 20150222 14:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2S 78.3E TO 15.8S 71.4E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 221330Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 77.1E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.8S
79.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 77.1E, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 220841Z
NOAA-19 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A MORE DEFINED CENTER. A 220333Z
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS FAVORABLE AT 29 TO 30 CELSIUS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW.
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE INDICATES IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
231400Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS21 PGTW 20150223 14:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221351Z FEB 15//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 221400)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.7S 75.2E TO 18.4S 71.2E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 231330Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 74.7E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2S
75.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 74.7E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER AND DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST
PERIPHERIES OF THE SYSTEM. A 231212Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A WELL-DEFINED SHALLOW LLCC.
A 230453Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30
KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY
EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE INDICATES IMPROVING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES REMAIN
FAVORABLE AT 29 TO 30 CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS
SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
241400Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150224 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231351Z FEB 15//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 72.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 72.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.0S 70.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 18.0S 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 19.0S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 20.2S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 22.9S 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 25.7S 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 30.0S 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 71.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 546 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, ALONG WITH
A 240434Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS, REVEALS A BROAD BUT CONSOLIDATING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEPENING CENTRAL
CONVECTION AND IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS
BASED UPON THIS SATELLITE DATA WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE BROAD
NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED UPON
THE CONSOLIDATING STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND AS DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND FMEE INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALED AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) HAS DECREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS (15 TO 20 KNOTS) AND OUTFLOW
REMAINS STRONG. TC 14S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY WEST ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MODIFYING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) SITUATED TO
THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS STR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT
STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MODIFIES AND
TURNS THE CYCLONE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU
72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
THROUGH TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS OF MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26 TO 27 DEGREES
CELSIUS), MODERATE VWS, AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALLOW. AFTER TAU 72, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND
WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK OVER COLD (< 26 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WHILE APPROACHING THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY
FLOW. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120 AS A STRONG COLD-
CORE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST
TRACK ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT IN WHEN AND WHERE
THE SYSTEM WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. DUE TO THIS, THE
FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z AND 250900Z. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
231351Z FEB 15 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW
231400).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150224 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 16.8S 70.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 70.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.4S 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.4S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.7S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 20.9S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 23.1S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 27.6S 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 33.1S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 70.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (GLENDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 908 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BETTER CONSOLIDATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES AND INTO THE
LLCC. A 241705Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC
WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING AND DEEP CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGE AND EIR LOOP WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE AVERAGE OF
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES DUE TO THE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF THE
LLCC AND DEEP CONVECTIVE WRAPPING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. TC GLENDA IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE SOUTH. THIS STR WILL REORIENT TO THE EAST OF TC 14S, CAUSING
THE SYSTEM TO TURN POLEWARD, AND REMAIN THE DOMINATE STEERING
MECHANISM THROUGH TAU 72. BEYOND TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL ROUND THE
STR RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ABOVE 27C
ALLOWING TC GLENDA TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES THE STR
AXIS, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 72,
THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES TO MODERATE LEVELS
(20 TO 30 KNOTS). BEYOND TAU 72, TC 14S WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT EMBEDS IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND EXPECTED TO
COMPLETE ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A RE-CURVE SCENARIO LENDING TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z AND 252100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150225 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 17.6S 69.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 69.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.8S 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.9S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.1S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 22.4S 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 25.0S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 29.1S 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 34.2S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 68.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (GLENDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 661 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH EXPANSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING THAT HAS REMAINED
SLIGHTLY BROKEN. A 250414Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED THE
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED IN SIZE WHILE THE
BANDING HAS STARTED TO WRAP TIGHTER IN THE LLCC ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION HAS BECOME LIMITED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND MSI LOOP WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE STRUCTURE OF THE
SYSTEM AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE SAME VALUE FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES. ADDITIONALLY, THE WIND FIELD WAS GREATLY
INCREASED BASED ON A 250502Z ASCAT PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. TC GLENDA IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. THIS STR IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT
TO THE EAST OF TC 14S OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, INDUCING A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CREST THE
STR AXIS AND BEGIN TURNING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY. UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 27 DEGREES CELSIUS ALLOWING TC GLENDA TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES THE STR AXIS, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 72, WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WHICH WILL INCREASE
VWS WHILE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO BECOME MARGINAL. AS THE
SYSTEM BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW, EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) IS FORECAST TO BEGIN NEAR TAU 72 AND
EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A RE-CURVE SCENARIO LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS
17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z AND 260900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150225 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 68.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 68.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 20.0S 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.4S 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 22.6S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 23.9S 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 27.7S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 32.2S 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 37.3S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 68.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 621 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED FLARING AND FRAGMENTED DEEP
CONVECTION, ALBEIT WRAPPED TIGHT INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND
EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE 251645Z ASCAT PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE AND SUPPORTED
BY THE ASCAT DATA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS 06
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
(10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW EXCEPT
THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST. BY TAU 48, IT WILL ROUND THE STR AND RECURVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION, BECOMING A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW BY END OF FORECAST.
TC GLENDA WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND PEAK AT 85 KNOTS BY TAU 48
BEFORE VWS BEGINS TO TAKE TOLL. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 260900Z AND 262100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150226 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 20.3S 67.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 67.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.8S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 23.1S 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 24.4S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 26.9S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 32.2S 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 38.1S 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 67.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (GLENDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 586 NM
EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THINNING CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND SATELLITE FIXES
FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE CYCLONE IS NOW LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05
TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW.
TC 14S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW-
TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE MARGINAL, FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, ALLOWING MODERATE
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BY TAU 36, TC GLENDA WILL
ROUND THE STR AND RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. BY TAU 72, TC 14S WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT EMBEDS IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND
EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR
POSSIBLY SOONER. AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH
IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z AND
270900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150226 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 22.4S 67.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 67.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 23.8S 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 24.9S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 27.0S 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 29.6S 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 34.4S 73.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 67.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME
DISPLACED EASTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS IS
READILY APPARENT ON THE 261402Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE IMAGES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW,
KNES, AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
DIGGING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE WAYWARD CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE HAS
CRESTED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST AND WILL BEGIN TO
RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 12 INTO THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THE INITIAL EXPOSURE INTO THE STRONG WESTERLIES MAY AMPLIFY THE
INTENSITY SLIGHTLY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THE WEAKENING TREND
WILL BE CONCURRENT TO ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, BECOMING A
GALE-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z AND 272100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150227 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 23.8S 66.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 66.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 25.4S 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 27.5S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 30.0S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 32.9S 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 66.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (GLENDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 573 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF ELONGATION
AS THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE DISPLACED EASTWARD OF A PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON MSI AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT
OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 14S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY TAU 24, THE CYCLONE WILL
COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE, BECOMING A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 272100Z AND 280900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150227 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 25.2S 67.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2S 67.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 27.3S 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 29.7S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 31.8S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 25.7S 67.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (GLENDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 618 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPANDING AND ELONGATING CLOUD SYSTEM
STRUCTURE WITH WEAKENED CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM. A 271741Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED
LLCC IN EIR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS HAS BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY BASED ON A 271649Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWING 45 TO 50 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM AS IT GAINS SUPPORT FROM INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 14S HAS STARTED
TO BE ENVELOPED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR TO 30-40 KNOTS ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. TC
14S CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY TAU 12, THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE
DEEPER INTO A WEAK THICKNESS GRADIENT AND COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). TC GLENDA IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT AND BECOME A
GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
280900Z AND 282100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150228 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 27.5S 67.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.5S 67.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 30.3S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 28.2S 67.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (GLENDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 723 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 14S HAS STARTED TO
LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BECOME FURTHER SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WHICH HAS STARTED TO OPEN AND UNRAVEL. A 290454Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE ALSO SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO SLIGHTLY ELONGATE
WHILE DRY AIR IS BEGINNING TO WRAP IN FROM THE WESTERN PERIPHERY.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN OVERALL UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS
THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME FURTHER EMBEDDED INTO THE WESTERLIES WITH
STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS COMPLETELY
OFFSETTING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, MARGINAL TO
UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL SUSTAINMENT. TC GLENDA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WHILE FURTHER LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND DEVELOPING INTO A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600ZIS 16 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_glenda_jtwc_advisories.htm
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