Tropical Cyclones
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Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary October 1999
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]


                               OCTOBER, 1999

  (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
  information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
  the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)


                          TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES
                        for the AUSTRALIAN REGION
     The Australian Bureau of Meteorology maintains three Tropical
  Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWC):  Perth, Western Australia; Darwin,
  Northern Territory; and Brisbane, Queensland.  Each centre is allotted
  a separate list of tropical cyclone names for tropical cyclones forming
  within its area of responsibility (AOR).  In addition a TCWC located at
  Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea (PNG)--a former Australian territory--
  maintains a list of native names to assign to the very rare tropical
  cyclones which form within its AOR.

     The AORs of the respective centres are:

  (1) Perth - 125E westward to 90E.  Technically, Perth's AOR is south of
      10S with Indonesia being responsible for waters north of 10S, but
      I believe the plan is that any rare tropical cyclone which might
      form north of 10S would be named by Perth.

  (2) Darwin - 125E eastward to 138E and extending northward to the
      equator.  There is a little irregularity with the eastern border
      in the Gulf of Carpentaria.  The Darwin TCWC issues High Seas
      Warnings for the entire Gulf of Carpentaria, but Brisbane issues
      Tropical Cyclone Advices and names cyclones in the eastern portion
      of the Gulf.

  (3) Brisbane - 138E eastward to 160E and generally south of 10S.  The
      northern border with the Port Moresby AOR is somewhat irregular.

  (4) Port Moresby, PNG - immediate vicinity of the island of New Guinea
      and eastward to 160E generally north of 10S although the southern
      border is somewhat irregular.

     Names for the 1999-2000 season (** indicates name has already been

          Perth          Darwin        Brisbane        Port Moresby

         Ilsa **        Winsome         Steve            Epi
         John **        Alistair        Tessi            Guba
         Kirrily        Bonnie          Vaughan          Ila
         Leon           Craig           Wylva            Kama
         Marcia         Debbie          Abigail          Matere
         Norman         Evan            Bernie           Rowe
         Olga           Fay             Claudia          Tako
         Paul           George          Des              Upia
         Rosita                         Erica
         Sam                            Fritz
         Taryn                          Grace
         Vincent                        Harvey
         Walter                         Ingrid
         Alex                           Jim
         Bessi                          Kate

                            OCTOBER HIGHLIGHTS

  --> Atlantic continues active--South Florida and Leeward Islands
      experience hurricane strikes
  --> Eastern India struck by two intense cyclones--one very deadly
  --> North Pacific relatively quiet--northern Luzon struck by typhoon

                           ACTIVITY BY BASINS

  ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico

  Activity for October:  2 tropical depressions
                         1 tropical storm
                         2 hurricanes

  NOTE:  Much of the information presented below was obtained from the
  TPC/NHC discussion bulletins issued with every regular advisory.  All
  references to sustained winds imply a 1-min averaging period unless
  otherwise noted.  A special thanks to John Wallace, a tropical cyclone
  enthusiast and college student from San Antonio, for providing me with
  a log he had kept of all Atlantic/Northeast Pacific tropical waves and
  LOWs which proved to be very valuable in helping to trace the pre-
  depression history of some of the cyclones.  

                       Atlantic Activity for October

     After the demise of Hurricane Gert and Tropical Storm Harvey in
  September, a short lull ensued in the Atlantic tropics.   Two tropical
  depressions formed late in the first week of October, but it was not
  until 13 Oct, almost three weeks after Gert had become extratropical
  in the far North Atlantic, that the next tropical storm--Irene--formed
  in the northwestern Caribbean Sea.   Irene crossed western Cuba and
  south Florida as a Category 1 hurricane and later deepened rather
  explosively off the North Carolina coast into a strong Category 2
  hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson scale.    About the same time that
  Irene was strengthening off the Outer Banks, Jose was born in the
  deep tropical Atlantic east of the Windward Islands.  Jose intensified
  into a Category 2 hurricane and struck the northern Leeward Islands,
  an area which has experienced hurricane strikes in every year since
  1995 with the exception of the strong El Nino year of 1997.  Finally,
  at the end of the month, a tropical depression in the southwestern
  Caribbean briefly became Tropical Storm Katrina before making landfall
  in Nicaragua.

     Tropical Depression #11 can be traced to a tropical wave which
  was approaching the Lesser Antilles on 26 Sep.  The wave moved through
  the Caribbean Sea during the following days and by 30 Sep a 1008-mb
  LOW had formed east of Cape Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua.  The disturbance
  continued moving west-northwestward across the northwestern Caribbean
  Sea and over the southern Yucatan Peninsula.   The broad area of low
  pressure had reached the extreme southern Bay of Campeche by 4 Oct,
  and around midday a reconnaissance flight was made into the area by
  the U. S. Air Force Reserves 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron
  (the Hurricane Hunters).  The Hurricane Hunters found a CP of 1003 mb
  and maximum FLW of 44 kts south of the center but winds of only 15 kts
  over much of the remainder of the circulation.  It was felt that the
  stronger winds could be due to funneling along the coast or else due
  to downbursts.   Since the wind field and convection had become better
  organized, advisories were initiated on Tropical Depression #11.

     The depression was located just offshore of the northern coast of
  the Mexican state of Tabasco.   Over the next couple of days the
  system moved little, perhaps drifting very slowly west-northwestward.
  The upper-level atmospheric pattern was favorable for intensification,
  but the depression did not intensify due to two probable reasons:
  (1) its proximity to land, and (2) much of the would be low-level
  inflow bypassed the depression for a trough over the Gulf of Mexico to
  the north.  A reconnaissance flight around midday on 5 Oct found a CP
  of 1005 mb with maximum FLW of 30 kts.  Rich Henning related to me
  that during a flight into the depression on which he was present,
  there was an area approximately 200 nm in diameter over which the
  pressure did not vary by more than 1 or 2 mb.  The convective pattern
  remained rather chaotic and uncharacteristic of what would be expected
  in a developing tropical cyclone.

     By midday on the 6th a flight by the Hurricane Hunters could not
  find a center so the depression was declared dissipated.   However,
  despite the lack of a center, winds increased considerably along the
  western side of the former circulation.  Ship PGEC reported winds of
  40-48 kts and the reconnaissance aircraft found FLW as high as 50 kts.
  Convection with very cold cloud tops to -80 C developed and persisted
  in association with the depression over eastern Mexico between Tampico
  and Veracruz, and very heavy rains fell over much of the region,
  leading to some devastating flooding with much loss of life.   Press
  reports indicated that nine Mexican states were affected by the
  flooding and landslides resulting from the heavy rains, with Hidalgo,
  Puebla, Veracruz, and Tabasco being the hardest hit.     The town of
  Pantepec in Hidalgo state was partially covered by landslides.   Over
  100,000 people were evacuated in the state of Tabasco along the
  southern Bay of Campeche coast.  An on-line report by the U. N. Office
  for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) dated 2 November
  indicates that the death toll was 476 with 160 persons still missing.
  However, heavy rains not directly associated with Tropical Depression
  #11 continued over the region through much of October, and it is very
  difficult to assess just how much of the disaster was attributable
  to the depression's rainfall.

     Tropical Depression #12 developed from a tropical wave which left
  the west African coast around 30 Sep.  A 1011-mb LOW had formed on the
  wave by 3 Oct, and advisories were begun on the system at 0300 UTC on
  6 Oct when the center was located approximately 850 nm east-northeast
  of Barbados.      With an anticyclone in place over the system, the
  depression was initially given a good chance to intensify, but west-
  southwesterly flow associated with an upper-level LOW to the northwest
  began undercutting the anticyclone and led to shearing which hampered
  development and ultimately led to the depression's dissipation. 
  During its life the depression moved slowly in a west-northwesterly 
  direction and was located about 800 nm east of Guadeloupe when the
  final advisory was issued at 08/1800 UTC.

                        Hurricane Irene  (TC #13)
                             13 - 21 October

     Contrary to most Atlantic tropical cyclones this season, Hurricane
  Irene appears not to have been spawned by a tropical wave of African
  origin.       An area of disturbed weather had developed over the
  extreme southwestern Caribbean Sea by late on 10 Oct, and over the
  ensuing couple of days drifted generally northwestward.  A flight was
  made by the Hurricane Hunters into the area on 12 Oct but a well-
  defined LLCC could not be found, although surface pressures were low
  between northeastern Honduras and the Cayman Islands.   On the morning
  of 13 Oct, however, satellite images and radar observations from Grand
  Cayman indicated that the LOW had become much better organized and was
  upgraded directly to Tropical Storm Irene at 1500 UTC.   The center
  of the storm was then located about 150 nm southwest of Grand Cayman.
  A reconnaissance flight during the afternoon found a CP of 1002 mb
  and a poorly-organized center with tropical storm-force winds
  limited to a band northeast of the center.  However, Irene had plenty
  of deep convection, excellent outflow and banding features, and was
  forecast to intensify.   Irene initially moved northward and within
  18 hours was upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane located just southwest of
  the Isle of Youth.     The storm displayed an impressive satellite
  signature with the center embedded within very cold convection with
  tops to -80 C.    Hurricane-force winds extended out only 15 nm from
  the center but gales reached outward up to 115 nm.

     Irene moved northward to a position just west of the Isle of Youth
  but then jogged northeastward, crossing the northwestern portion of
  the island during the morning of 14 Oct.   Then the hurricane took
  another jog, this time to the north, which carried it over western
  Cuba and just west of Havana around 15/0000 UTC.   Havana reported
  wind gusts to 63 kts as the eye of Irene passed by.    After emerging
  from Cuba the eye of the hurricane moved somewhat erratically--even
  re-forming at one point--but in general tracked north-northeastward
  toward the southwestern tip of Florida.   Irene's eye was just south
  of Key West at 1200 UTC and made landfall near Cape Sable around mid-
  afternoon on the 15th.   During the early morning a reconnaissance
  flight reported FLW of 85 kts well east of the center but it was felt
  that those winds may have been associated with a mesocyclone in an
  outer band.  Cloud tops were as cold as -89 C at one point.  Irene's
  organization as seen in satellite imagery improved during the day and
  the MSW increased a little to 75 kts just before the center made

    As Hurricane Irene passed through the Florida Keys, quite a few
  stations reported winds well above tropical storm force and some
  reported gusts above hurricane force.   Dry Tortugas (24.6 N, 82.7 W)
  reported a peak sustained wind of 41 kts at 15/0900 UTC with a peak
  gust of 51 kts.    Long Key (24.8 N, 80.4 W) experienced sustained
  winds exceeding tropical storm force for several hours, reaching
  50 kts at 2000 UTC with a peak gust of 61 kts and a pressure of 988.7
  mb.   Molasses Reef (25.0 N, 80.3 W) likewise recorded a sustained
  wind of 50 kts at 15/2000 UTC with peak gusts reaching 63 kts and
  a pressure of 992.1 mb.     Winds gusted above hurricane force for
  several hours at Sombrero Key (24.6 N, 81.0 W), reaching a peak of
  69 kts.  The maximum sustained wind of 55 kts was recorded at
  1500 UTC and the lowest pressure of 990.8 mb was measured at 1600 UTC.
  Sand Key (24.1 N, 82.0 W) reported a pressure of 987.0 mb at 1200 UTC
  but the winds were only around 14 kts gusting to 31 kts at the time.  
  Sand Key's highest winds (sustained 44 kts, peak gust of 57 kts)
  were reported earlier at 0600 UTC.  During the morning of the 15th
  (time unspecified) Big Pine Key reported a gust as high as 89 kts.
  (A special thanks to Eric Blake at Colorado State University for
  sending me a compilation of weather station observations.  If anyone
  would like the complete file, please e-mail a request to me and I'll
  be very happy to send it along.)
     By late afternoon of the 15th Irene's center was inland over the
  extreme southern portion of the Florida peninsula, and hurricane-
  force winds were confined to a few squalls offshore of the southeast
  coast where a reconnaissance aircraft reported FLW of 93 kts and a
  CP of 985 mb.  A wind gust of 75 kts was measured at Homestead during
  the afternoon and an unofficial gust of 65 kts was reported from Mercy
  Hospital in Miami.    Miami International Airport reported gusts to
  60 kts during the late afternoon and a gust of 67 kts was reported
  during the early evening hours at Fowey Rocks Light.  Hurricane-force
  winds at this time extended out over the Atlantic up to 60 nm from the
  center.   During the night Irene continued north-northeastward across
  southern Florida and by the early morning of 16 Oct was moving out
  into the Atlantic near Jupiter Inlet.  The passage across the southern
  peninsula appeared to take a toll on the storm as cloud tops warmed
  somewhat.  A reconnaissance flight during the very early morning hours
  found a CP of 986 mb and 77-kt winds north of the center at 850 mb.
  Also, ship ELUB8 reported winds to 65 kts east of Ft. Lauderdale at
  0300 UTC.

     Upon reaching the Atlantic Irene turned to a due northward course,
  skimming the Florida east coast and gradually pulling farther away
  from the coastline.  Vero Beach and Melbourne reported gusts to 55 kts
  and 50 kts, respectively, during the morning of the 16th as Irene
  chugged northward.  Satellite images revealed that the storm's cloud
  pattern was somewhat disorganized, but a reconnaissance aircraft found
  a pressure of 986 mb and peak winds of 85 kts during the morning; also,
  ship WFLG reported sustained winds of 68 kts to the northeast of the
  center, so Irene's MSW was adjusted from 65 kts to 70 kts in the
  1500 UTC advisory.    Hurricane Irene had expanded in areal extent by
  the afternoon of 16 Oct with hurricane-force winds extending outward
  90 nm and tropical storm-force winds out to 220 nm.     The eye had
  become very large with minimal deep convection.   St. Augustine and
  Daytona Beach reported gusts to around 48 kts as the hurricane
  continued northward offshore, and St. Augustine later reported a gust
  to 67 kts at 0213 UTC.

     Although vertical shear across the storm was minimal, drier air
  was pulled into the circulation and this led to a significant decrease
  in the deep convection.   Reconnaissance data during the evening of
  the 16th showed a drop in the dew point of 8 deg C during the previous
  twelve hours.    Irene had reached a point about 100 nm due south
  of Charleston, South Carolina, by 17/1200 UTC but then turned to a
  northeasterly heading which paralleled the South and North Carolina
  coasts.   During the morning there was an intense burst of convection
  followed by a drop in central pressure although the winds did not
  increase.  At 2341 UTC Frying Pan Shoals reported a wind gust of
  59 kts.    The center of Irene had become better defined by this time
  and dew points were 10 deg C higher than 24 hours earlier.  The CP
  had dropped to 973 mb and was still falling.   A reconnaissance flight
  into the storm very early on 18 Oct found a big surprise!   Irene had
  developed a very tight wind center within the deep convection and FLW
  at 850 mb were 114 kts just southeast of the center.  Winds of 129 kts
  were observed at 902 mb by an eyewall dropwindsonde and the CP had
  dropped rather significantly to 958 mb.  The surface MSW was estimated
  at 90 kts in the advisory at 0900 UTC.  The hurricane was located about
  30 nm south-southeast of Cape Hatteras at this time and was starting
  to accelerate rapidly to the northeast.

     By 1500 UTC Irene was beginning to exhibit some extratropical
  characteristics as it sped northeastward, but there was a symmetric
  area of deep convection near the center, so the MSW was held at 90 kts
  based on persistence and Dvorak intensity estimates.   During the day
  Irene continued to accelerate northeastward and gradually lost tropical
  characteristics.  TPC/NHC wrote the last advisory on Irene at 19/0300
  UTC as the storm passed over 200 nm southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia,
  and merged with a cold front.       Winds, however, were still above
  hurricane force and the transformed extratropical storm remained very
  potent for several more days as it traversed the North Atlantic.  The
  last position available to the author placed the storm's center
  several hundred miles west of Ireland at 21/1800 UTC.

     In Cuba widespread damage to crops was reported with the tobacco
  crop in Sancti Spiritus province and banana plantations in Cienfuegos
  province being especially hard hit.   Four deaths were reported:  two
  by drowning and two by electrocution.   There were extensive telephone
  and power outages, and thousands of persons had to be evacuated when
  many reservoirs overflowed in several western provinces.  More than
  27,000 homes were damaged with 730 completely destroyed.    In the
  Havana area 400 buildings suffered significant damage.

     In southern Florida Hurricane Irene dumped between 250 and 500 mm
  of rain.     Total losses in the state, mainly agricultural, were
  assessed to be around $800 million.     There were eight deaths
  indirectly attributed to Irene in Florida--either by drowning or by
  electrocution.  (The information in this paragraph was taken from the 
  seasonal summary prepared by the Hurricane Specialists at TPC/NHC.)

                         Hurricane Jose  (TC #14)
                             17 - 28 October

     A tropical wave left the coast of Africa on 8 Oct and travelled
  westward across the Atlantic.      The system slowly became better
  organized and by 17 Oct exhibited banding features and an excellent
  upper-level outflow.  A ship north of the developing center reported
  20-kt easterly winds and a pressure of 1006 mb, so advisories were
  initiated on Tropical Depression #14.   At 1800 UTC the depression
  was centered about 550 nm east-southeast of Barbados.   At 0000 UTC
  a ship with call sign C6QG4, located a short distance west of the
  estimated center, reported northeast winds of only 7 kts with a
  pressure of 1007.5 mb; however, satellite imagery indicated increasing
  organization.      By early morning on 18 Oct well-defined banding
  features with cloud tops to -80 C just north of the center had
  developed, and with Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB reflecting
  this, the depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Jose at 0900 UTC.
  Jose presented a very symmetrical appearance in satellite imagery
  and upper-level outflow was impressive.     A reconnaissance flight
  during the afternoon found a minimum CP of 1000 mb and peak FLW of
  52 kts at 450 m altitude.

     Jose continued to move on a general west-northwesterly course
  toward the Lesser Antilles as it steadily intensified.   The storm
  was located about 200 nm east-southeast of Martinique at 19/1200 UTC,
  and a reconnaissance flight found winds of 73 kts in a small area to
  the northeast of the center.  Satellite intensity estimates from SAB
  and TAFB had reached T4.0, so Jose was upgraded to the season's seventh
  hurricane at 1500 UTC.   An early evening reconnaissance flight found
  peak FLW (at 850 mb) of 91 kts and a CP of 986 mb, while another
  aircraft during the very early morning hours of 20 Oct found a pressure
  of 986 mb and FLW of 99 kts. The surface MSW was increased to 80 kts on
  the 20/0900 UTC advisory.  Satellite imagery indicated very cold cloud
  tops to -85 C and the aircraft reported a 30-nm wide eye open to the
  south.    A later flight by the Hurricane Hunters during the morning
  of the 20th measured winds of 111 kts at the 964-mb level and found
  a CP of 978 mb.   The MSW estimate was upped to 85 kts at 1500 UTC,
  thereby making Jose a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson scale.
  Satellite T-numbers were 5.0 (90 kts) from TAFB, SAB, and KGWC at this

     The eye of Hurricane Jose crossed over the island of Antigua around
  local noon on 20 Oct.     A gust of 89 kts was measured on the island
  and was relayed to TPC/NHC by the Director of the Meteorological
  Service of Antigua.    After crossing Antigua Jose continued on toward
  the west-northwest, passing just south of St. Barthlemy and St. Martin
  during the early evening hours.   St. Martin reported sustained winds
  of 44 kts with gusts to 61 kts while St. Barthlemy recorded sustained
  winds of 60 kts with gusts to 77 kts.  It is likely that stronger winds
  were experienced at higher elevations on some of the islands.    The
  center of Jose at this time was embedded within a CDO of very deep
  convection with tops to -85 C, although the cloud pattern as seen in
  satellite imagery was becoming less impressive.      As the storm
  continued west-northwestward it began to encounter shearing associated
  with an upper-level trough extending from the central Caribbean into
  the Atlantic.

     During the early morning hours of 21 Oct the southwesterly shear
  increased and Jose began to weaken.  A reconnaissance flight early
  on 21 Oct found that the pressure had risen to 992 mb and the highest
  FLW recorded was 65 kts.  The LLCC was near the southwestern edge
  of the deep convection.   The weakening storm passed through the
  British Virgin Islands during the morning of the 21st with the center
  over or very near Tortola (and just east of St. John in the USVI)
  around 1200 UTC.    Jose was downgraded to a 55-kt tropical storm 
  at 1500 UTC since the LLCC was becoming exposed.  St. Thomas reported
  sustained winds of 38 kts with gusts to 45 kts around midday as the
  storm passed to the north of the island.

     After leaving the Virgin Islands Tropical Storm Jose began to
  turn more to the north-northwest and eventually north, reaching the
  westernmost point of its track at 1200 UTC on 22 Oct when it was
  centered about 100 nm north of San Juan, Puerto Rico.  A reconnaissance
  flight very early on 23 Oct found a CP of 994 mb and a peak FLW of
  only 63 kts 90 nm east-northeast of the center.   A GPS dropwindsonde,
  however, measured only 38 kts at the same location.     A surface wind
  analysis prepared by AOML/HRD showed a peak surface wind of 49 kts, so
  the official MSW was reduced to 50 kts at 23/0600 UTC.   As Jose's
  track tended more to the north-northeast, the relative shear over the
  storm began to decrease and the cyclone began to show signs of
  regaining intensity.   A Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM)
  overpass at 24/0517 UTC showed that the LLCC was better involved with
  the deep convection than it had been the previous day and the MSW
  was increased to 60 kts in the 0900 UTC advisory.   During the morning
  visible imagery and data from another TRMM overpass confirmed that
  the center was well embedded within the deeper convection, and since
  the latest Dvorak T-numbers supported hurricane strength, Jose was
  re-classified as a minimal hurricane at 1500 UTC when it was centered
  about 265 nm southeast of Bermuda.

     The hurricane was beginning to accelerate rapidly to the north-
  northeast and the re-intensification was short-lived.   By 0300 UTC
  on 25 Oct Jose was beginning to merge with a frontal cloud band and was
  downgraded to a 60-kt tropical storm.  Six hours later TPC/NHC wrote
  the final advisory as Jose continued to merge with the frontal zone
  about 525 nm northeast of Bermuda and about 565 nm south-southwest of
  Cape Race, Newfoundland.  The extratropical remnants of Jose continued
  to race north-northeastward into the North Atlantic and eventually
  deepened into a very intense extratropical storm with winds well above
  hurricane force which remained quasi-stationary between Iceland
  and Greenland for several days.

     The hardest hit island was Antigua where two persons were killed
  and more than a dozen injured.     More than 500 persons were left
  homeless and 815 houses suffered damage to or loss of the roof.  On
  Antigua 50% of the telephones were out of service and 90% of the
  island was without electricity immediately after Jose's passage.  A
  few homes on St. Barthelemy were damaged also.   In the Virgin Islands
  there were reports of scattered damage, but it appears to have been
  relatively minor.

                      Tropical Storm Katrina  (TC #15)
                           28 October - 1 November

     A Tropical Weather Outlook issued by TPC/NHC on 26 Oct mentioned
  that a broad area of low pressure had developed over the southwestern
  Caribbean Sea.   Like the forerunner of Irene, this system seems to
  have not been associated with a tropical wave of African origin.  The
  disturbance gradually became better organized over the next couple of
  days while remaining essentially stationary, and a reconnaissance
  flight by the Hurricane Hunters around midday on the 28th was able to
  close off a center with a CP of 1001 mb.  Therefore, advisories were
  begun on Tropical Depression #15 at 2100 UTC.  The broad center of the
  depression was located roughly 100 nm southeast of San Andres Island.
  The last fix by the aircraft reported a peak wind of 37 kts at 450 m
  and a CP of 1002 mb with the center located on the eastern edge of the
  deep convection.

     Naturally, during the night the center was difficult to track with
  infrared imagery.      A 0600 UTC wind observation from San Andres
  suggested that there was a low-pressure center to the east-northeast of
  the island.  This was partially explained as likely being related to
  a tropical wave arriving from the east and causing an adjustment of the
  wind field as the two systems merged.  Morning visible satellite images
  revealed a partially-exposed LLCC still on the eastern edge of the deep
  convection.   The depression was experiencing easterly shear due to
  an upper-level anticyclone positioned over the central Caribbean Sea.
  The system during this time was moving generally northwestward toward
  the Nicaraguan coast.  A reconnaissance mission into the depression
  around midday on 29 Oct found a CP of 999 mb, a maximum FLW (at 450 m)
  of 43 kts, and a surface wind of 35 kts.  Based upon this information,
  the system was upgraded to Tropical Storm Katrina at 2100 UTC when
  it was centered about 100 nm south-southeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios,

     Katrina's life as a tropical storm was ephemeral.    By 0000 UTC
  on 30 Oct the minimal tropical storm was making landfall on the coast
  of Nicaragua about 40 km southwest of Puerto Cabezas.    By 0300 UTC
  Katrina had been downgraded back to a tropical depression over land.
  Deep convection had become limited to a small area west of the center.
  The weakening depression continued moving northwestward across north-
  eastern Nicaragua and into eastern Honduras where its circulation
  became increasingly disrupted by the mountainous terrain.  By late
  afternoon on the 30th the circulation appeared to have become elongated
  with possible multiple centers.  But observations during the evening
  from La Ceiba and Roatan in Honduras showed persistent southwesterly
  winds--indicating that the center had re-formed in the Gulf of
  Honduras.  However, Katrina did not have enough time over water to
  begin to show any appreciable signs of re-intensification.

     The weak depression with only 25-kt winds soon moved back inland
  over the southern Yucatan Peninsula.   During 31 Oct visible satellite
  imagery suggested that Katrina's center had become a little better
  defined, and it was thought that the system might have a shot at some
  modest strengthening if it moved out over the Gulf of Mexico before
  being overtaken by an approaching cold front.       However, the
  depression's forward motion slowed, keeping the center over land, and
  by the afternoon of 1 Nov Katrina was being absorbed into a cold front
  that was moving across the Yucatan Peninsula.    It is estimated that
  Katrina likely caused from 250 to 380 mm of rain across portions of
  Central America, but there have been no reports of damage or fatalities
  resulting from the storm.


  NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180

  Activity for October:  1 tropical storm

  NOTE:  Much of the information presented below was obtained from the
  TPC/NHC discussion bulletins issued with every regular advisory (CPHC
  for locations west of 140W.)  All references to sustained winds imply
  a 1-min averaging period unless otherwise noted.  

     The following report on Tropical Storm Irwin was authored by John
  Wallace of San Antonio, Texas.  John is a very keen tropical cyclone
  enthusiast who has a special interest in tropical cyclones and the
  climatology of the Eastern North Pacific, and has made a serious study
  of the relationship between tropical cyclones in this basin and the
  El Nino/La Nina cycles.  John is currently a student at the San Antonio
  branch of the University of Texas.

     Hopefully next year, if time permits, John will be writing the
  summaries for all, or at least some, of the Northeast Pacific basin
  tropical cyclones.   I invited him to get a little chance to "cut his
  teeth" by writing up Tropical Storm Irwin.

                  Northeast Pacific Activity for October

     The only tropical cyclone to form in the Northeast Pacific basin
  during October was Tropical Storm Irwin.  Irwin formed on 8 Oct about
  100 nm south-southwest of Manzanillo, initially moved northward, then
  turned to the west and had dissipated over cooler waters well to the
  southwest of Cabo San Lucas near Socorro Island by 11 Oct.

                     Tropical Storm Irwin  (TC-14E)
                             8 - 11 October

  NOTE:  While the lion's share of the following narrative is exactly as
  John wrote it, I did perform a little editing, mainly to keep
  references to time, dates, distances, etc. in the same units and
  formats which I have always followed.   One thing I did let stand as
  John had originally written it:  the use of the "L" suffix for Atlantic
  tropical depressions (e.g., TD-11L).     The WMO's _Global Guide to
  Tropical Cyclone Forecasting_ suggests the use of the letter "L" for
  Atlantic tropical systems, and some models (the UKMET for one) use this
  nomenclature.     But since TPC/NHC does not attach this suffix to
  tropical depressions in their advisories, I have chosen not to use it
  either in the monthly summaries and cyclone tracks files.

     The development of Tropical Storm Irwin--the last named storm of the
  extremely quiet 1999 season--does not appear to have been associated
  with a tropical wave.  The disturbance that became Irwin formed within
  a broad region of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche and southern
  Mexico, the same region in which TD-11L was embedded.  Though it is
  highly unlikely that Irwin was the redevelopment of TD-11L--the 
  pre-Irwin low formed the same day that TD-11L dissipated in a location
  far to the west--it is possible that the development of these two
  cyclones represents a roughly twin tropical cyclogenesis.  More likely,
  the large area of strong convection and low pressure associated with
  TD-11L helped to "jump start" Irwin's development.
     As TD-11L was weakening over the Bay of Campeche late on 5 Oct,
  a large cyclonic disturbance developed to its southeast from a
  convective complex that had propagated westward.  The disturbance was
  centered roughly over the Gulf of Tehuantepec at 1800 UTC on 5 Oct.
  There was weak cyclonic curvature apparent at this time.     The 
  disturbance was situated near the southern terminus of a frontal zone
  (responsible for the hostile shear over TD-11L) that extended far to
  the northeast.   However, it seemed to have only a modest effect on
  the pre-Irwin disturbance.

     The disturbance organized slowly and remained near the Mexican coast
  for the next two days.  The 1800 UTC tropical surface analysis prepared
  by TPC/NHC on 6 Oct showed a 1006-mb tropical LOW near 15.0 N, 107.0 W.
  Interaction with the coast, and perhaps modest shear, limited
  development; convection was broad and intermittent.  In fact, its
  organization weakened on the 7th before increasing dramatically on
  8 Oct.  At 1205 UTC on 8 Oct the disturbance was upgraded to TD-14E,
  although the first advisory was not issued by NHC until 2100 UTC
  when the center was located roughly 100 nm south-southwest of
  Manzanillo, Mexico.  Increased organization apparent on satellite and
  radar imagery warranted upgrading the depression to Tropical Storm
  Irwin at 09/0300 UTC.

     Irwin initially tracked slowly northward.    Though the models 
  indicated that a strong ridge building to the north would turn Irwin
  quickly northwest and west before reaching the coast, Irwin's proximity
  to the coast warranted the issuance of a tropical storm warning with
  the advisory at 0300 UTC on 9 Oct as the storm passed to within 60 nm
  of Manzanillo.  It is likely that the Mexican coast between Manzanillo
  and Punta San Telmo experienced tropical storm-force winds associated
  with Irwin along with the squally weather preceding its formation.
  No significant damage or casualties were noted.
     Irwin did not disappoint forecasters; the expected westward turn
  occurred early on the 9th, and by 1200 UTC that day Irwin was tracking
  west-northwestward away from the coast.      During this time Irwin
  steadily intensified, deepening to 997 millibars with a MSW of 50 kts
  by 2100 UTC when it was centered about 300 nm southeast of Cabo San
  Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.    The
  satellite appearance of Irwin was surprisingly ragged for a storm
  of this intensity; it had improved slightly by 2300 UTC. 

     Irwin continued to track westward under the influence of a strong
  ridge to the north on 10 Oct.    Outflow remained good in the western
  semicircle.  Irwin's peak was short-lived--it began a steady weakening
  trend on the 10th as it tracked into cooler waters. Water vapor imagery
  also suggested the entrainment of dry air into the circulation.   The
  LLCC became exposed to the northwest of the storm's deep convection
  by 1200 UTC on 10 Oct; thereafter, the decay of the tropical cyclone
  was extremely rapid.   By 2300 UTC that same day Irwin was devoid of
  significant deep convection.    As it weakened, Irwin turned to the
  southwest, following the low-level flow.  The final advisory on Irwin
  was issued at 0300 UTC on 11 Oct; this was also the advisory which
  downgraded it to a tropical depression about 300 nm south-southwest of
  Cabo San Lucas and near Socorro Island.     A weak low-level vortex
  persisted for several days, dissipating by the 16th.


  NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180

  Activity for October:  1 tropical storm
                         1 typhoon

  NOTE: Most of the information on each cyclone's history presented in 
  the narrative will be based upon JTWC's advisories, and references to
  winds should be understood as a 1-min avg MSW unless otherwise noted.
  However, in the accompanying tracking document I have made comparisons
  of coordinates with JMA (Japan) and the Philippines (PAGASA) when their
  positions differed from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more.  Also, as
  announced earlier in a separate posting, a column of 10-min avg MSW
  is included--the values being obtained from either PAGASA's or JMA's
  advisories.  A special thanks to Michael V. Padua, owner of the
  Typhoon '99 webpage, for sending me the PAGASA and JMA tracks.

     In the title line for each storm I plan to reference all the cyclone
  names/numbers I have available:  JTWC's depression number and name (if
  any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator, and PAGASA's name for
  systems forming in or passing through their area of responsibility.

                  Northwest Pacific Activity for October

     In contrast to the preceding two months, the month of October was
  relatively quiet in the Northwest Pacific basin.   Only two tropical
  depressions formed and both of these became named tropical storms. Eve
  remained fairly weak and nebulous, but Dan intensified into a 110-kt
  typhoon (per JTWC's analysis), equalling Typhoon Leo in late April for
  the honor of being the year's second strongest typhoon (after Super
  Typhoon Bart in September).   Dan cut across the extreme northern
  end of Luzon in the Philippines, then turned northward and moved into
  eastern China.      The much weaker Eve moved across the central
  Philippines and eventually into northern Vietnam.

                   Typhoon Dan/Pepang  (TC-26W / TY 9920)
                              2 - 11 October

     A Significant Tropical Weather Outlook (STWO) from JTWC on 1 Oct
  mentioned that an area of convection had developed west of the Marianas
  and had persisted for ten hours in a region where vertical shear was
  relatively weak.   A few hours later (02/0000 UTC) another STWO was
  issued upgrading the development potential of the disturbance to Fair.
  A LLCC was developing with increasing winds and falling pressures.
  The system was apparently beginning to develop rapidly, and a Formation
  Alert was issued at 0230 UTC.   Warnings were initiated by JTWC, JMA,
  and PAGASA at 1200 UTC with PAGASA naming the depression Pepang.  The
  center of Pepang was located about 500 nm east-northeast of Catanduanes
  Island in the Philippines at that time.    Although persistent, the
  convection was somewhat disorganized with the deepest convection
  located west of the LLCC.   The depression was forecast to track west-
  northwestward within the strong flow of a subtropical ridge to the

     At 0000 UTC on 3 Oct JTWC upgraded the depression to Tropical Storm
  Dan based upon satellite intensity estimates of 30-35 kts and ship
  reports of 27-33 kts.  Deep convection was increasing around the LLCC
  and Dan/Pepang was forecast to continue intensifying.   Twelve hours
  later a CDO had formed over the LLCC with an anticyclone aloft and
  also significant banding features had developed.  JTWC increased the
  MSW to 45 kts, and JMA and PAGASA both upgraded the system to a
  tropical storm with 35-kt MSW (10-min avg) at the same time.  A period
  of rapid intensification had begun and JTWC and PAGASA upgraded the
  storm to typhoon intensity at 04/0600 UTC when it was located about
  235 nm east of Luzon.  A 45-nm wide eye had developed and significant
  banding features were located northwest and east of the LLCC.    The
  typhoon exhibited good outflow and some very cold cloud tops.

     Typhoon Pepang reached its peak intensity of 110 kts at 0000 UTC on
  5 Oct as it was nearing the northeastern coast of Luzon, being located
  only a short distance southeast of Cabo Engano at the time.  (JMA's and
  PAGASA's peak 10-min MSW of 80 kts and 75 kts, respectively, were
  reached at the same time.  Surprisingly, PAGASA's estimate was lower
  than JMA's--usually the reverse is true for stronger typhoons.)  The
  typhoon moved across the extreme northern end of Luzon and by 1200 UTC
  had emerged into the South China Sea just west of Laoag, a city on the
  northwestern tip of the island.   The MSW (1-min) per JTWC's warnings
  had dropped to 90 kts during the storm's passage across Luzon.  By
  1800 UTC Dan/Pepang's forward motion had slowed considerably, from
  around 12 kts to only 3 kts as the typhoon encountered a strong surface
  ridge of high pressure.

     Over the next couple of days Typhoon Dan moved rather slowly as
  steering currents were weak.  The storm was between subtropical ridges
  to the west and northeast with strong surface pressures over south-
  eastern China which prevented any significant movement to the north-
  west.  The storm moved slowly westward, later curving to the north.
  The typhoon also weakened slightly with MSW dropping to 80 kts at
  0600 UTC on 6 Oct.   The westernmost point of Dan's track was reached
  around 07/0000 UTC when it was centered about 200 nm northwest of
  Laoag on Luzon.   The typhoon by this time was displaying a banding-
  type eye and overall convective organization had increased.    By
  0600 UTC on 7 Oct Typhoon Dan was located about 250 nm southeast of
  Hong Kong and was moving northward at 5 kts.    The estimated MSW had
  increased to 90 kts and Dan was sporting an eye 30 nm in diameter.

     Twenty-four hours later Dan was located about 160 nm west of the
  southern tip of Taiwan and was moving northward into the Taiwan Strait.
  A SSM/I pass indicated that the diameter of the eye had increased to
  60 nm as the typhoon maintained its 90-kt intensity.   At 1200 UTC the
  JTWC warning noted that eye definition had improved with a deep
  convective band wrapping three-quarters of the way around the eye but
  that drier air was moving into the storm from the southwest.    By
  09/0000 UTC Dan was located just off the Chinese coast near Xiamen,
  moving northward at 7 kts.  The typhoon was beginning to weaken due to
  land interaction and drier air intrusion.   Typhoon Dan made landfall
  in China near Xiamen and continued northward over eastern China.  The
  MSW had decreased to 35 kts by 1800 UTC and there was an elongated
  band of convection north of the system.   The storm was downgraded to
  a depression at 0000 UTC on 10 Oct.

     JMA dropped the system at 09/1800 UTC but JTWC continued to track
  the residual depression northward just inland across eastern China.
  By 10/1200 UTC the weak depression was moving north-northeastward
  back out to sea just south of Shanghai and was beginning to transition
  into an extratropical LOW.     The final JTWC warning was issued at
  11/0000 UTC with the now fully extratropical LOW located southwest of
  Cheju Island and racing northeastward at 26 kts toward the southern
  Korean Peninsula.

     Patrick Hoareau of Rennes, France, sent me a couple of rainfall
  measurements resulting from Typhoon Dan/Pepang.   At Hengchun, on the
  southern tip of Taiwan, 167 mm of rain was measured in 24 hours ending
  at 06/1200 UTC.  At Baguio in northwestern Luzon, 366 mm was recorded
  in an 18-hour period ending at 1800 UTC on 5 Oct with 266 mm falling
  during the first 12 hours of the period.     (A special thanks to
  Patrick for passing along this information.)   Storm total rainfall
  values at Bingu and Ambuklao (Philippines) were 328 mm and 300 mm,

     On Luzon the total damage assessment was equivalent to $1.8 million
  U. S. dollars.  At least 10 persons lost their lives--most due to
  landslides.   Over 400 homes were destroyed with over 4000 damaged,
  mainly by flooding.  At Laoag, near where Dan/Pepang's eye exited
  Luzon, agricultural losses were estimated at almost 268,000 pesos.
  In China the cities of Quanzhou, Xiamen, and Zhangzhou were hardest
  hit.  The death toll in China was 30 and the total economic losses
  were estimated at $241.6 million U. S. dollars.

     Typhoon Dan/Pepang, although not becoming an unusually intense
  typhoon, was nonetheless a fairly well-defined system for most of its
  lifetime.  The track coordinates issued by JTWC, JMA, and PAGASA were
  in remarkably good agreement for this cyclone, even during the early
  formative stages.

              Tropical Storm Eve/Rening  (TC-27W / TS 9921)
                            15 -20 October

     The daily STWO from JTWC on 12 Oct mentioned that a broad area of
  convection had developed about 250 nm east-southeast of Guam; however,
  there was no evidence of any rotation.      The next day the zone of
  disturbed weather had moved westward and was located about 350 nm
  west-southwest of the island.  Deep convection persisted and there was
  evidence of a possible LLCC.  Also, vertical shear was low and there
  was good upper-level divergence over the region; hence, the development
  potential was upgraded to Fair.     A synoptic analysis on the 14th
  suggested that a weak LLCC was present, and by the next day, animated
  visible and water vapor imagery indicated a well-defined LLCC
  underneath an upper-level anticyclone with good outflow.  A Formation
  Alert was issued at 15/0200 UTC with the system located east of the
  central Philippines by a few hundred miles.

     PAGASA began issuing warnings on the system at 0000 UTC on 15 Oct,
  naming it Tropical Depression Rening.     Rening's broad center was
  located roughly 250 nm east of the Leyte Gulf south of the island of
  Samar.   JTWC and JMA initiated warnings at 0600 UTC, relocating the
  center farther to the west--about 130 nm east of Samar.   Animated
  satellite imagery depicted spiral banding around the LLCC with upper-
  level divergence in a moderate vertical shear environment.  Rening
  was forecast to track west-northwestward within the steering flow
  of a low- and mid-level ridge to the north.   The depression crossed
  the central Philippines on 16 Oct, but the exact path of the center
  through the island archipelago isn't all that certain.    There was
  considerable disagreement between JTWC, PAGASA, and JMA on the center
  coordinates of this system throughout its life.

     JTWC tracked the center across northern Samar, Ticao, Burias Island,
  the Sibuyan Sea, and across southern Luzon south of Manila.  PAGASA's
  track carried Rening's center across Catanduanes Island, over south-
  eastern Luzon near Daet, and eventually very near Manila.   JMA at
  first tracked the center across Samar, but then relocated it much
  farther north and subsequently tracked the center across Luzon along
  the 15th parallel, just north of Manila.   I received an observation
  from Michael V. Padua at Naga City (13.6 N, 123.2 E) which he had made
  with his own instruments on the morning of 16 Oct.  At 0200 UTC PAGASA
  had placed Rening's center at 14.0 N, 122.9 E, or over Daet and about
  50 km north-northwest of Naga.      But at 0328 UTC Michael measured
  sustained winds from the east-southeast to southeast of 16-19 kts
  (1-min avg) gusting to 27 kts from the southeast.   The attendant
  barometer reading was 999.4 mb.  This strongly suggests that Rening's
  center was indeed south of Naga as JTWC's track would imply.

     By 16/1800 UTC the depression had emerged into the South China Sea
  west of Manila.  Deep convection was beginning to increase near the
  center; however, dry northeasterly flow from an anticyclone over China
  soon began to erode the convection, at least in the depression's
  northern semicircle.   Deep convection was noted south of the LLCC at
  0600 UTC on the 17th, and JMA and PAGASA upgraded Rening to a tropical
  storm at this time with the center being located approximately 125 nm
  west-northwest of Manila.       The storm moved northwestward until
  0000 UTC on 18 Oct when it reached a position about 325 nm west-
  northwest of Manila after which it turned to the west and later west-
  southwest toward the Vietnamese coast, steered by a mid-level ridge
  to the north.     JMA increased the 10-min MSW to 40 kts while JTWC
  kept the system as a 30-kt tropical depression.    Dry, gale-force
  northeasterlies generated by a high pressure cell over China impinged
  on the system and prevented any significant intensification.

     By 18/1800 UTC the storm was moving west-southwestward at 17 kts.
  Convection had increased around the LLCC so JTWC upgraded the system
  to Tropical Storm Eve.   Satellite intensity estimates were 30-35 kts.
  Over the next few hours the convection became even more organized near
  the center so the MSW were increased to 45 kts at 19/0000 UTC--the
  same as JMA's 10-min MSW estimate.   According to both JTWC and JMA,
  Eve's center reached the coast of Vietnam near the 15th parallel
  around 19/0600 UTC, but after that there was big-time disagreement!
  JTWC relocated the (supposed) weakening center northwestward just
  inland where at 1200 UTC Eve was downgraded to a depression and the
  final warning issued, placing the center a short distance southeast
  of Hue.

     JMA, however, relocated the center over 100 nm to the north of the
  previous warning position--back over the South China Sea between
  Vietnam and Hainan Island, and with the MSW (10-min) still at 35 kts.
  JMA then subsequently tracked the storm westward and inland (again)
  near Dong Hoi with the remnants moving west-northwestward into Laos.
  (The author has not received any reports of damage or fatalities
  due to Tropical Storm Eve/Rening.)

  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

  Activity for October: 2 tropical cyclones of hurricane intensity

  NOTE:  The tracking and intensity information for North Indian Ocean
  Basin tropical cyclones is based primarily upon operational warnings
  from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and Navy
  (JTWC) at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.  Occasionally some information may
  be gleaned from the daily Tropical Weather Outlooks and other bulletins
  issued by the Indian Meteorological Department, which is the WMO's
  RSMC for the basin.
     The MSW are based on a 1-min averaging period, which is used by
  all U. S. civilian and military weather services for tropical cyclone
  warnings.  For synoptic observations in the North Indian region,
  both 10-min and 3-min average winds are employed, but IMD makes no
  attempt to modify the Dvorak scale for estimating tropical cyclone
  intensity; hence, a 1-min avg MSW is implied.  In the North Indian
  basin JTWC usually does not initiate warnings until a system is
  well-organized and likely to attain tropical storm status within
  48 hours.

                  North Indian Ocean Activity for October

     Two tropical cyclones formed in the Bay of Bengal during October.
  Both intensified into very intense cyclones and both struck the coast
  of the Indian state of Orissa.  The first cyclone was destructive and
  deadly enough, but the second became the deadliest tropical cyclone
  of the year and one of the deadliest of the decade.

                        Tropical Cyclone  (TC-04B)
                             15 - 19 October

     An area of convection developed and persisted in the Andaman Sea,
  and late on 14 Oct was located near 13.0 N, 93.2 E, or near Narcondam
  Island.  Animated visible and microwave imagery as well as a synoptic
  analysis indicated that a LLCC had formed.   Outflow was fair and
  vertical shear weak to moderate.   During the 15th the system began
  to develop rather rapidly.  JTWC issued a Formation Alert at 1700 UTC
  and issued the first warning at 1800 UTC.   The tropical cyclone's
  intensity was estimated at 35 kts and the center was located 185 nm
  northwest of the Andaman Islands or about 410 nm south-southeast of
  Calcutta.  The storm was forecast to track northwestward under the
  influence of a subtropical ridge to the northeast.

     The cyclone continued moving northwestward toward the east coast of
  India.  By 16/1800 UTC satellite intensity estimates were 55 kts and
  77 kts; deep convection had increased and consolidated around a 10-12
  nm diameter eye; outflow was good--so the MSW was increased to 65 kts.
  The cyclone's center at this time was about 150 nm east of the city of
  Visakhapatnam, or roughly 100 nm off the Indian coast.   The next six
  hours, however, saw an explosive deepening of the system.  JTWC was
  only issuing 12-hourly warnings on the cyclone, but a special warning
  was issued at 17/0000 UTC due to the extreme intensification.  The
  MSW had increased dramatically to an estimated 120 kts with the center
  only about 65 nm off the coast.   Dvorak numbers had reached T6.5 and
  the storm displayed an extremely small eye only 5 nm in diameter.  The
  radius of 100-kt winds was estimated to be only 15 nm with gale-force
  winds extending outward 90 nm to the northeast and 60 nm elsewhere.
  A TRMM overpass showed a banding feature completely surrounding the
  eye with another band of strong convection located west to southwest
  of the vortex.

     By 0600 UTC the cyclone's center was closing in on the coast of
  Orissa, still maintaining 120-kt winds.  The diameter of the eye had
  increased slightly to 15 nm.       The cyclone made landfall around
  1200 UTC near Brahmapur with the MSW estimated at 100 kts and with
  gusts to 125 kts.   Once inland the small tropical cyclone began to
  weaken quickly as it moved northward through Orissa state.   Based
  primarily on information from the IMD, the weakening system moved
  northward, passing well west of Cuttack, then turning northeastward.
  At 19/0300 UTC the weak depression was east of Jamshedpur and moving
  northeastward across the state of West Bengal

     The hardest hit district by Tropical Cyclone 04B was Ganjam where
  83 persons died.  Other districts significantly affected by the storm
  were Puri, Khurda, and Gajapathi.   The total official death toll is
  115 with over 1000 injured, but there are unofficial reports that over
  250 persons lost their lives.    Total economic losses are estimated
  to have been near $470 million (20 billion rupees).   Many villages
  and roads were flooded, paralyzing transportation.  Over 50% of the
  Srikakulam district was flooded by the cyclone's rains.  Approximately
  460 coastal villages were affected by the storm, with 35,000 houses
  damaged or destroyed and more than 700,000 persons left homeless.

                        Tropical Cyclone  (TC-05B)
                          25 October - 1 November

     An area of convection developed on 21 Oct in the Sulu Sea, southeast
  of the Philippine island of Palawan.     Animated infrared satellite
  imagery indicated that convection was increasing and that a LLCC
  might be forming; however, moderate wind shear and weak outflow were
  inhibiting development at the time.    Over the next couple of days
  the disturbance drifted westward out into the South China Sea. 
  Convection increased and vertical shear decreased, so the development
  potential of the system was upgraded to Fair by JTWC.  At 23/0200 UTC
  a Formation Alert was issued for the disturbance.  The LOW continued
  to move westward, passing just south of the extreme southern tip of
  Vietnam, and into the Gulf of Thailand.  By late on the 23rd convection
  had decreased due to increasing vertical shear and interaction with
  land, so the Alert was cancelled.

     The weak disturbance subsequently continued on westward, having
  crossed the Malay Peninsula and entered the Andaman Sea by 0300 UTC on
  25 Oct.   Although vertical shear was still moderate, convection began
  to increase once more and the system had developed a fair outflow.
  During the 25th convective organization improved with a strong rainband
  wrapping into the LLCC from the north, and surface pressures began to
  slowly fall.   Another Formation Alert was issued at 1900 UTC and the
  first warning, classifying the system as a 35-kt tropical cyclone, was
  issued at 26/0000 UTC.     The newly born cyclone was centered about
  175 nm south-southwest of Yangan (Rangoon), Myanmar.    A subtropical
  ridge to the northeast steered the storm on a west-northwesterly course
  toward the east coast of India.   By 27/0000 UTC the MSW estimate had
  reached 60 kts.  The cyclone was almost directly under a 200-mb ridge
  axis and had excellent outflow.

     The storm began to intensify more rapidly as the 27th progressed.
  By 1200 UTC winds had reached 90 kts with the center about 350 nm
  south-southwest of Chittagong, Bangladesh.     Dvorak T-numbers had
  reached T6.5/T7.0 by 28/1200 UTC and the MSW was increased to 135 kts.
  The cyclone reached its peak intensity at 0000 UTC on 29 Oct when JTWC
  estimate the MSW to be 140 kts.     The radius of 100-kt winds was
  estimated to be 20 nm while gale-force winds extended outward 130 nm
  to the northeast and 100 nm elsewhere.   The storm's center was then
  located about 75 nm southeast of Cuttack, India.  There have been only
  two other tropical cyclones in recent years to reach this intensity
  in the Bay of Bengal.   One was a cyclone in May, 1991, which caused
  many thousands of deaths in Bangladesh.  The other was Typhoon Gay
  in November, 1989, which crossed the Malay Peninsula at full typhoon
  strength and later struck the east coast of India at peak intensity.

     Tropical Cyclone 05B made landfall near 0600 UTC on 29 Oct southeast
  of Cuttack, between Puri and Kendrapara.    However, instead of moving
  well inland as forecast, the cyclone stalled near the coastal region.
  At 30/0000 UTC the center had been quasi-stationary near Jajpur for
  twelve hours.      Significant dry-air advection had caused the
  convection to weaken with cloud top temperatures having warmed 20
  degrees C over a 12-hour period.    The next couple of days saw the
  weakening cyclone drift very slowly southward along the coastal zone.
  Winds were down to 45 kts by 30/1200 UTC and continued to slowly
  diminish.   The system was caught in weak steering flow between two
  mid-level anticyclones.  Deep convection was confined to a band north-
  east of the center.    The storm was advecting in dry air from over
  India but was still maintaining a strong low-level cyclonic inflow.
  JTWC downgraded the cyclone to a 30-kt depression at 0000 UTC on
  1 Nov and issued the final warning, placing the weakening center
  offshore about 60 nm south of Puri.   A residual low-pressure area
  remained in the area for a few more days.

     Tropical Cyclone 05B was the most severe cyclone to affect Orissa
  since 1971.  Districts that were hard hit include Ganjam, Kendrapara,
  Jagatsinghpur, Puri, Bhubaneshwar, Bhadrak, Balasore, Cuttack, and
  Jajpur.  The storm generated a 7-m tidal surge which swept 20 km
  inland in some places.  Together the two cyclones effectively wiped
  out all crops along a 140-km stretch of coastline.    Heavy rains
  continued in the area for days.     The damage caused by Tropical
  Cyclone 05B was not confined to India--in Myanmar flooding caused by
  heavy cyclone-related rains left 20,000 homeless and there were 10
  deaths reported there.

     The current official death toll in India stands at 9885 with 8119
  of these occurring in Jagatsinghpur district, but there are unofficial
  estimates that as many as 30,000 persons may have lost their lives.
  The total damage from the cyclone is estimated to have exceeded
  $1.5 billion (67 billion rupees).    Nearly 2 million houses were
  damaged or destroyed and over 1.8 million hectares of agricultural
  land was devastated by the storm.    Heavy rains washed industrial
  chemicals into bathing ponds, and relief workers reported that
  thousands of people had suffered chemical burns.  In the coastal town
  of Paradwip where the cyclone's center made landfall, almost every
  house was completely destroyed by the storm surge.

     There were thousands of farm animals and livestock destroyed by
  the storm.  Some totals include:  buffaloes - 8238; sheep - 78,104;
  goats - 78,728; calves - 10,381; chickens - over 1 million.  Other
  problems which are always to be encountered following a disaster of
  this magnitude are polluted drinking water, looting, disease and
  rotting carcasses (both animal and human), and shortages of food,
  clothing, and medical supplies.   Much more information about the
  aftermath of these two destructive Indian cyclones can be found at
  the following website:>.  Click
  on the "Natural Disasters" link.


  SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN (SIO) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E

  Activity for October:  No tropical cyclones


  AUSTRALIAN REGION (AUG) - From Longitude 90E Eastward to Longitude 160E

  Activity for October:  No tropical cyclones


  SOUTHWEST PACIFIC (SWP) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E

  Activity for October: No tropical cyclones

                  Southwest Pacific Activity for October

     There were no tropical cyclones in the Southwest Pacific basin
  during October, but the author did receive one gale warning from Fiji
  on a system that was referred to as a tropical depression.  The system
  was centered near 27.0 S, 156.0 W at 1800 UTC on 21 Oct, moving to the
  southeast at 10 kts.   The warning indicated that winds of 30-35 kts
  might be experienced in association with the LOW.    Considering the
  latitude and time of year, it is highly likely that this system was
  not a true tropical depression but rather a hybrid or subtropical
  LOW.   No track is given for this system in the accompanying cyclone
  tracks file document.


                              EXTRA FEATURE

     In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
  material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
  acronyms.   I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
  in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then.  Most of
  these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
  few aren't clear to some.  To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
  Abbreviations and Acronyms which I included in the July, 1998 summary.
  I will include this glossary from time to time, primarily in "lean"
  months without a lot of tropical cyclone activity to cover.  But if
  anyone missed receiving it and wishes to obtain a copy, send me an
  e-mail privately and I'll forward them a copy.


  AUTHOR'S NOTE:  This summary should be considered a very preliminary 
  overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
  tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
  warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers.  The
  information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
  intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
  on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
  on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
  centers will be passed along from time to time.

    The track files are not being sent via e-mail.  They can be retrieved
  in the following manner:

       (a) FTP to: []
       (b) Login as: anonymous
       (c) For a password use your e-mail address
       (d) Go to "data" subdirectory (Type: cd data)
       (e) Set file type to ASCII (Type: ascii)
       (f) Transfer file (Type: get remote_file_name local_file_name )
           (The files will be named with an obvious nomenclature--using
           October as an example:   oct99.tracks)
       (g) To exit FTP, type: quit

    Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
  created in DOS editor.  Download to disk and use a viewer such as
  Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.

     The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
  1997.   If anyone wishes to retrieve any of the previous summaries,
  they may be downloaded from the aforementioned FTP site at HRD.  The
  summary files are catalogued with the nomenclature:  oct99.sum, for

    Back issues can also be obtained from the following websites
  (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Tom Berg, Michael
  Pitt, and Rich Henning):>>>>>

     Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
  be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office.  Their site
  contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
  globally on a monthly basis.  The URL is:>


     JTWC now has available on its new website the completed Annual
  Tropical Cyclone Report for 1998.  Also, reports for each year from
  1959 through 1997 are available in Adobe Acrobat format.

     The URL is:>

     TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor" tracking
  charts for the 1998 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific tropical
  cyclones, and preliminary storm reports for all the 1998 Atlantic
  and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available.  Also, a few
  preliminary reports for some of the 1999 tropical cyclones are
  already available.

     The URL is:>

  Prepared by: Gary Padgett
  E-mail:  [email protected]
  Phone:  334-222-5327 (nights & weekends) / 850-882-2594 (weekdays)


Document: summ9910.htm
Updated: 4th January 2007

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