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Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary June 2003
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]

                                 JUNE, 2003

  (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
  information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
  the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)


                              JUNE HIGHLIGHTS

  --> Rare Atlantic depression forms east of Lesser Antilles
  --> Two out-of-season South Pacific tropical cyclones--one a hurricane
  --> Typhoon affects Philippines and Japan
  --> Tropical storms strike Mexico and Louisiana


                 ***** Feature of the Month for June *****


     For the past couple of years I have included some Dr. Gray-style
  Net Tropical Cyclone activity (NTC) statistics for the Atlantic and
  Northeast Pacific basins.  It has been my wish to begin to produce
  similar tables for the other tropical cyclone basins, but I have not
  had the time to pursue this heretofore.   A few years back I'd written
  some software to read through the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific Best
  Track files and calculate the required parameters, but I did not until
  recently have data for the other basins in a similar format.  A few
  months ago I received from Charles Neumann a set of Best Track (BT) files
  for the North Indian Ocean and the Southern Hemisphere in essentially
  the same format--similar enough that with a little modification my
  earlier software would read the files and extract the needed parameters.

     So this month I'm featuring some tables of tropical cyclone statistics
  for the North Indian Ocean basin--the basin which has the lowest annual
  number of tropical cyclones, but which has seen tragically high numbers
  of lives lost due to intense storms sweeping across the coasts of India,
  Pakistan and Bangladesh.  For the present I have included only the
  period 1981 through 2002.  Mr. Neumann indicated that the file, which
  begins with 1965, is based largely upon JTWC's database.  I initially
  intended to begin with 1975, which was the first year that JTWC issued
  warnings operationally for essentially the entire basin.   However, I
  discovered some discrepancies between the BT files and the Annual
  Tropical Cyclone Reports (ATCR) prepared by JTWC up through and including
  1980.   Since the two sources began to agree almost exactly in 1981, I
  chose that year as my starting point.

     JTWC began issuing tropical cyclone warnings for the eastern Bay of
  Bengal east of 90E in 1971.  The area of coverage was extended west to
  80E in 1974, covering the entire Bay of Bengal.  In 1975 the western
  limit was extended again to 62E, taking in the eastern half of the
  Arabian Sea.  Finally, in 1976 the AOR was extended westward to the
  African coast.    For purposes of this discussion I have used the
  following definitions:

     NS  - a tropical cyclone with 1-min avg MSW >= 34 kts
     H   - a tropical cyclone with 1-min avg MSW >= 64 kts
     IH  - a tropical cyclone with 1-min avg MSW >= 96 kts
     NSD - four 6-hour periods in which a NS is operating
     HD  - four 6-hour periods in which a H is operating
     IHD - four 6-hour periods in which an IH is operating
     NTC - (((Total NS/Avg NS) + (Total H/Avg H) + (Total IH/Avg IH) +
           (Total NSD/Avg NSD) + (Total HD/Avg HD) +
           (Total IHD/Avg IHD))/6) x 100%

     In 1975 the BT file lists 7 NS with 4 H.  The ATCR lists 6 NS with
  3 H.  However, one of the NS (a January system) is carried as only a
  depression in the BT file.   For 1976 the differences are even greater.
  The BT file lists 10 NS with 7 H, but the ATCR lists only 5 NS with
  no hurricanes.  As late as 1980, the BT file contains 4 NS, but the ATCR
  mentions only two, and both of those with a MSW of only 35 kts.  However,
  beginning with 1981, there is perfect agreement regarding the number of
  storms, and the peak MSW values are usually the same, occasionally
  differing by perhaps 5 kts.   This agreement between the two sources
  suggests that the BT file can be considered fairly reliable from that
  point on.  I seem to recall an e-mail from Mr. Neumann several months
  ago when he sent the North Indian Ocean file in which he stated that he
  didn't have a whole lot of confidence in the intensities until the early

     In compiling the statistics, I included all tropical cyclones which
  occurred in the basin, whether they originated there or not.  During
  the period under consideration, I am aware of four systems of Northwest
  Pacific basin origin which either moved into or redeveloped in the
  Bay of Bengal:  Gay of 1989, Forrest of 1992, Linda of 1997, and Vamei
  of 2001.  I do not have the BT file for 2002 yet--for that year the
  numbers were taken from the operational tracks.   I did not include
  certain non-operational systems in recent years which I had included in
  the monthly track files I prepare, based upon information from individual
  meteorologists who performed analyses of them at my request.  Nor did
  I include a system in October, 2001, which was treated as a "cyclonic
  storm" by IMD but for which no warnings were issued by JTWC.  One
  knowledgeable meteorologist stated to me that the system was almost
  certainly not a tropical storm.

     The tables follow.  The information contained in each should be
  self-explanatory.  Following the tabulated data are some comments.

                   Annual Tropical Cyclone Activity

  Year    NS       H      IH        NSD     HD     IHD     NTC
  1981     3       2       0       13.50   2.50    0.00     61
  1982     5       2       1       15.00   3.75    1.00    119
  1983     3       0       0        5.25   0.00    0.00     16
  1984     4       2       0       17.00   4.25    0.00     78
  1985     6       0       0       13.50   0.00    0.00     36
  1986     3       0       0        4.75   0.00    0.00     16
  1987     8       0       0       19.50   0.00    0.00     50
  1988     5       1       1       12.25   4.00    0.75    102
  1989     3       1       1        9.50   4.75    2.00    119
  1990     2       1       1        9.00   3.25    2.00    106
  1991     4       1       1       11.00   3.50    1.75    112
  1992    11       3       1       36.50   4.00    2.00    194
  1993     2       2       0        6.50   2.50    0.00     49
  1994     5       1       1       12.00   2.25    1.00     96
  1995     4       2       1       11.00   2.50    0.75     99
  1996     8       4       1       32.25   3.75    1.00    170
  1997     5       3       1       18.75   4.75    1.25    144
  1998     8       5       1       19.50   6.50    0.50    172
  1999     5       3       3       17.50   9.25    5.25    288
  2000     4       1       0       10.00   1.25    0.00     43
  2001     4       1       1        9.00   3.75    1.00     98
  2002     5       0       0       12.75   0.00    0.00     32
  Total  107      35      15      316.00  66.50   20.25 
  Avg.  4.86    1.59    0.68       14.36   3.02    0.92

                     Monthly Tropical Storm Activity

  Year   Jan  Feb  Mar  Apr  May  Jun  Jul  Aug  Sep  Oct  Nov  Dec

  1981                                                 1    1    1
  1982                        2                        2    1 
  1983                                       1         1    1 
  1984                        1                        1    2 
  1985                        2                        2    1    1
  1986    1                                                 2 
  1987         1                   2                   2    1    2
  1988                             1                   1    2    1
  1989                        1    1                        1 
  1990                        1                                  1
  1991    1              1         1                        1 
  1992                        1    2    1              2    4    1
  1993                                                      1    1
  1994              1    1         1                   1    1 
  1995                                            1    1    2 
  1996                        1    3                   2    2 
  1997                        1                   1         3 
  1998                        2    1              1    1    2    1
  1999         1              1    1                   2        
  2000                                                 2    1    1
  2001                        1                   1    1    1 
  2002                        2                             2    1
  Total   2    2    1    2   16   13    1    1    4   22   32   11

  Avg.  .09  .09  .05  .09  .73  .59  .05  .05  .18 1.00 1.45  .50

                      Monthly Hurricane Activity

  Year   Jan  Feb  Mar  Apr  May  Jun  Jul  Aug  Sep  Oct  Nov  Dec

  1981                                                      1    1
  1982                        1                             1 
  1984                                                      2 
  1988                                                      1 
  1989                                                      1 
  1990                        1     
  1991                   1                 
  1992                        1                             2 
  1993                                                      1    1
  1994                   1                              
  1995                                                      2 
  1996                             1                   1    1    1
  1997                        1                   1         1 
  1998                        1    1                        2    1
  1999                        1                        2        
  2000                                                      1 
  2001                        1                    
  Total   0    0    0    2    7    2    0    0    1    3   16    4
  Avg.  .00  .00  .00  .09  .32  .09  .00  .00  .05  .14  .73  .18

     The latter two tables reveal what all those who study tropical
  cyclones on a global scale know--that the North Indian Ocean has in
  essence two tropical cyclone "seasons" each year.  These occur during
  the spring and autumn transition seasons when the ITCZ is moving
  northward and southward, respectively, across the basin.  The very
  low incidence of wintertime tropical cyclones is to be expected, but
  the almost complete absence during the midsummer months of July and
  August is most unusual compared with other tropical cyclone basins.
  The reason is that during the boreal summer the ITCZ migrates far
  enough north that by and large it lies over land.  The very few storms
  which have formed in the latter part of June and in July and August
  usually developed at higher latitudes (around 20-23N) in the upper
  reaches of the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.

     The periods April-June and October-December account for 90% of the
  tropical storm and 97% of the hurricane activity, respectively.  The
  only known storm of hurricane intensity during the period under
  consideration which formed outside the six months referenced above was
  a hurricane in September, 1997.  November is the most active month for
  tropical storms (31), followed by October (22) and May (16).  November
  also has the highest number of storms of hurricane intensity (16), but
  May has seen more hurricanes (7) than October (3).  In fact, only two
  Octobers have seen hurricane activity since prior to 1981:  1996 and
  1999.   The month of October, 1999, stands out as one of the most
  remarkable months in recent history in the North Indian Ocean.  Two
  very intense tropical cyclones formed in the Bay of Bengal and both
  struck India's eastern coastal regions with winds estimated at 120 kts
  and 140 kts, respectively.  The second of these, TC-05B, was responsible
  for over 10,000 fatalities.

     With regard to the annual series chart (the first table), one feature
  which immediately grabs the attention is the very low incidence of
  intense tropical cyclones during the early and mid-1980s.  From 1981
  through 1987 only one IH developed, and there were three consecutive
  seasons with no cyclones of hurricane intensity reported.  Since 1988
  only three seasons have failed to produce an IH:  1993, 2000 and 2002.
  The 2002 season was the first since 1987 in which no hurricane-intensity
  systems developed.  Except for 1982, the NTC was well-below average
  during the period 1981-1987.   Activity began to increase in 1988,
  reaching a very high NTC of 194 in 1992--the year with the highest
  number of NS.  The years 1996-1999 represent the multi-year period with
  the highest annual NTC.  The "granddaddy" of all years was 1999 with a
  NTC of 288, due to the occurrence of three IH:  the two October storms
  mentioned above, and an intense May hurricane (TC-02A) which struck
  northwestern India and Pakistan.

     One final comment--as noted above I chose to include all activity
  in the North Indian Ocean basin, both native storms and a few visitors
  from the Northwest Pacific basin.   There are also some reasonable
  arguments for looking at a basin's annual activity in terms of only those
  cyclones which originated there.  The inclusion of Typhoon Linda's Bay
  of Bengal excursion likely augmented the 1997 NTC by a fair amount, but
  the weak redevelopment of former Typhoon Vamei in December, 2001, added
  only a negligible boost to that year's NTC.  However, it is a very
  different story for 1989 and 1992.   Although the North Indian Ocean
  in 1992 produced a record 10 native NS, Tropical Storm Forrest from
  the South China Sea moved across the Malay Peninsula and intensified
  into a 125-kt cyclone in the Bay of Bengal, yielding two full IHD and
  giving a significant boost to that year's NTC.   The NTC of 119 obtained
  for 1989 was even more dependent upon a visitor.  A fairly strong
  tropical storm had occurred in May, and a minimal tropical storm
  developed in June, but that year saw no more activity until November,
  when Typhoon Gay moved from the Gulf of Thailand across the Malay
  Peninsula and intensified significantly in the Bay of Bengal.  Gay
  eventually struck the eastern coast of India as a very small cyclone
  with winds estimated at 140 kts.  Gay, Tropical Cyclone 02B of 1991, and
  Tropical Cyclone 05B of 1999 reign as a triumvirate of the most intense
  North Indian Ocean cyclones currently in the database, each reaching an
  estimated peak MSW of 140 kts (per JTWC's analysis).  TC-05B of 1999 was
  deadly enough (as noted above), but TC-02B of 1991 was even deadlier--the
  storm resulted in an estimated 138,000 deaths in Bangladesh.

                            ACTIVITY BY BASINS

  ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico

  Activity for June:  1 tropical depression
                      1 tropical storm

                        Sources of Information

     Most of the information presented below was obtained from the
  various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction
  Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida:
  discussions, public advisories, forecast/advisories, tropical weather
  outlooks, special tropical disturbance statements, etc.    Some
  additional information may have been gleaned from the monthly
  summaries prepared by the hurricane specialists and available on
  TPC/NHC's website.     All references to sustained winds imply a
  1-minute averaging period unless otherwise noted.

                    Atlantic Tropical Activity for June

     Two tropical cyclones developed in the Atlantic basin during the month
  of June with one becoming a named storm.  A strong tropical wave moved
  off the west African coast on 7 June, moving westward.  By the next day
  a 1012-mb LOW was associated with the wave.  A Tropical Weather Outlook
  issued by TPC/NHC at 1530 UTC on the 9th indicated that there was some
  potential for further development of the wave, which was then located
  approximately 700 nm southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.  By late on
  the 10th convection had increased and a tropical depression appeared to
  be forming.  The first advisory on Tropical Depression 02 was issued at
  0300 UTC on 11 June, placing the center approximately 1125 nm east-
  southeast of Barbados.   Satellite intensity estimates during the early
  morning of 11 June suggested that the depression was near tropical storm
  intensity, but due to center location uncertainties based on nighttime
  infrared imagery, it was decided to wait for visible pictures before
  upgrading the system.

     The 1500 UTC advisory noted that while CI estimates remained at 35 kts
  from two agencies, convection had diminished and a recent QuikScat pass
  was inconclusive as to the intensity.  The depression's signature began
  to go downhill from that point, and the final advisory at 12/0300 UTC
  downgraded the system to an open tropical wave roughly 750 nm east-
  southeast of Barbados.     TD-02 was only the third known tropical
  depression to have formed east of the Lesser Antilles during June since
  1967, the others being Tropical Storm Ana in 1979 and a strong tropical
  depression in the eastern Atlantic in 2000.   Had TD-02 managed to reach
  tropical storm status, it likely would have died very young as the upper-
  level environment downstream was very hostile for tropical cyclone

     The other tropical cyclone was Tropical Storm Bill, which was upgraded
  directly to a tropical storm on the first advisory at 1500 UTC on the
  29th in the central Gulf of Mexico.  Climatologically, a tropical storm
  forms in the Atlantic basin around every other year, and Bill was right
  on schedule, being the first June storm since the destructive Tropical
  Storm Allison in 2001.  A complete report on Tropical Storm Bill follows.

                           TROPICAL STORM BILL
                             29 June - 4 July

  A. Storm Origins

     A Tropical Weather Outlook issued by TPC/NHC at 1530 UTC on 24 June
  seems to be the first mention of the area of disturbed weather which
  ultimately developed into Tropical Storm Bill.  Cloudiness and thunder-
  storms had increased over the western Caribbean between Honduras and
  Jamaica in association with a westward-moving tropical wave which was
  interacting with an upper-level LOW.  The activity was forecast to move
  slowly northwestward toward the Yucatan Peninsula.  Little change in the
  disturbance was noted on the 25th and 26th, and the Outlooks on 26 June
  pointed out that upper-level conditions were unfavorable for tropical
  cyclone formation, but were forecast to become more favorable over the
  next few days.

     By early on the 27th convection had increased over the northwestern
  Caribbean Sea but there were no signs of any surface development.  By
  late afternoon satellite imagery and surface observations indicated a
  broad area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula accompanied by a
  sizeable area of convection over the Caribbean.  Surface pressures had
  begun to fall, but significant development was being inhibited by the
  system's location over land.  Little change was noted on the 28th--by
  late in the day disturbed weather extended from the Yucatan Peninsula
  northward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.    Early on 29 June visible 
  satellite imagery revealed the development of a weak LLCC in the south-
  central Gulf, and ship H3GQ reported winds to 38 kts under the deep
  convection 150 nm northeast of the center around 1200 UTC.  At 1300 UTC
  TPC/NHC issued a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement announcing that
  advisories would be initiated on the developing tropical storm at
  1500 UTC.

  B. Storm History

     The first advisory on Tropical Storm Bill was issued at 1500 UTC,
  placing the center approximately 400 nm south-southeast of Port Arthur,
  Texas, and moving northwestward at 12 kts.   A tropical storm watch was
  issued for a portion of the Gulf of Mexico coastline extending from
  San Luis Pass, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana.  The initial intensity
  was set at 35 kts--this was increased to 40 kts at 2100 UTC based on a
  ship report of 40-kt winds 80 nm northeast of the center at 1500 UTC and
  information obtained from a reconnaissance mission into the cyclone.  The
  plane found maximum flight-level winds of 53 kts in the eastern quadrant
  at 2011 UTC with a central pressure of 1010 mb--somewhat high for a
  tropical storm, but the pressure gradient to the east of Bill was quite

     At 0300 UTC on 30 June Tropical Storm Bill's center was located about
  190 nm south of Morgan City, Louisiana, moving north at 12 kts.   As
  Bill's trajectory became more northerly, tropical storm warnings were
  shifted eastward accordingly, reaching to Pascagoula, Mississippi.  A
  hurricane watch was also issued for portions of the coastline in the
  event that Bill should strengthen to hurricane intensity before making
  landfall.  The center had moved northward closer to the deep convection,
  but the LLCC was still not embedded in the CDO feature.  The center was
  estimated to be located near the southwestern edge of the cold cloud
  canopy.  The MSW was upped to 45 kts in the 0300 UTC advisory, and this
  intensity was maintained in the 0900 UTC advisory package.  The cyclone
  was moving northward around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge
  that extended from the Atlantic westward across the Florida Peninsula
  into the Gulf of Mexico.

     A reconnaissance flight into the storm during the morning found peak
  flight-level winds of 66 kts southeast of the center at 1330 UTC and a
  central pressure of 1001 mb.    Based on this, Bill's intensity was
  increased to the peak of 50 kts at 1500 UTC.  The storm by this time was
  centered only 45 nm south-southwest of Morgan City and closing in on the
  Louisiana coastline.  As Bill approached the coast, the storm's motion
  became northeastward, and by 2100 UTC the center was making landfall
  over Terrebonne Bay about 25 nm (40 km) east of Morgan City.  Bill was
  then moving northeastward at 8 kts with the intensity still estimated
  at 50 kts.  A weather station in the area measured a MSLP of 997 mb
  as Bill was making landfall.

     By 0300 UTC on 1 July, the center of Bill was inland just west of
  Bogalusa, Louisiana, moving north-northeastward at 8 kts.  The MSW had
  dropped to 40 kts, mainly over water to the southeast of the center.
  The Slidell/KLIX radar indicated Doppler velocities of 50-60 kts just
  a few hundred feet above the surface.  Tropical Storm Bill was down-
  graded to a 30-kt tropical depression at 01/0600 UTC when located near
  Hattiesburg, Mississippi.  At 0900 UTC the depression was located about
  65 km south-southwest of Meridian, Mississippi, moving northeastward
  at 12 kts.  Some fairly strong wind gusts were still affecting the
  coastal region from eastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.  The
  final TPC/NHC advisory on Tropical Depression Bill was issued at 1500
  UTC on 1 July, placing the center near Tuscaloosa, Alabama.  Maximum
  sustained winds were estimated no more than 20-25 kts.

     Responsibility for issuing information on the remnants of Bill was
  then assumed by the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) at
  Camp Springs, Maryland.  Bill's slowly weakening remnants continued to
  move generally northeastward across the southeastern U. S., passing near
  Rome, Georgia, around 0300 UTC on 2 July and later near Knoxville,
  Tennessee.   By 0300 UTC on the 3rd the LOW was passing about 55 km
  northeast of Danville, Virginia, and six hours later was about the same
  distance southeast of Washington, DC.   By 1500 UTC all that remained
  was an elongated surface LOW along a stationary front with winds less
  than 10 kts.  The lowest surface pressure was near Annapolis, Maryland,
  although the most impressive cyclonic circulation in satellite imagery
  was located in central Virginia associated with the upper-level LOW
  which had been coupled with Bill's remnants for the past 36 hours.
  The LOW subsequently moved out over the Atlantic and headed northeast-
  ward just off the Mid-Atlantic and New England coastlines.  After moving
  back out to sea, winds picked up some, reaching 30 kts by 04/0000 UTC.

     According to Kevin Boyle, who followed the extratropical remnants of
  Bill, the system was located about 250 nm east-southeast of Cape Race,
  Newfoundland, around 0000 UTC on 6 July.  Moving more quickly towards
  the east-northeast, the weakening LOW passed well north of the Azores
  on the 7th.  By the next day a much larger LOW was becoming dominant,
  moving from Newfoundland into the mid-North Atlantic early on 9 July.
  Bill's remnant LOW was located within the warm sector of this much
  larger circulation.  Bill's remains lost its identity on 9 July roughly
  300 nm west of Ireland.  However, the left-over moisture of the former
  tropical storm brought a hot and humid airmass to the UK on the 9th and
  10th of July.  (Thanks to Kevin for sending this tidbit of information.)

  C. Meteorological Observations

  (1) Wind Reports

     As Tropical Storm Bill made landfall over southeastern Louisiana on
  the afternoon and evening of 30 June, several stations reported sustained
  winds exceeding gale force.   Louisiana State University maintains some
  automated weather stations south of Houma, and one of these recorded
  peak sustained winds of 41 kts, gusting to 48 kts, around 30/1800 UTC.
  Shortly before 2100 UTC, two of these LSU-maintained stations reported
  winds to 43 kts, gusting to 52 kts.

     An AWS on the Lake Pontchartrain Causeway recorded a gust of 53 kts
  around 0000 UTC on 1 July, and a gust of 47 kts was reported by the
  New Orleans International Airport at around the same time.  Around 0300
  UTC, the Gulfport, Mississippi, airport recorded a sustained wind of
  32 kts, gusting to 45 kts.

  (All the above information was gleaned from the public advisories issued
  by TPC/NHC.)

  (2) Rainfall Amounts

     The following rainfall information was obtained from the storm
  summaries issued by HPC after that agency had assumed responsibility
  for issuing bulletins on Bill.

  (a) Three-day rainfall totals exceeding 5 inches (127 mm) for the
  72-hour period ending at 1800 UTC on 1 July:

     State  Location                          Total (in)    Total (mm)
     LA     Mandeville Lakefront                 9.22          234
     LA     Hammond                              8.40          213
     LA     Slidell                              7.05          179
     LA     New Orleans Lakeside                 6.62          168
     LA     New Orleans Intl Arpt                5.54          141
     MS     Pascagoula                           8.85          225
     MS     D'Iberville                          5.64          143
     AL     Robertsdale                          7.46          189
     AL     Dauphin Island                       6.80          173
     FL     Pensacola Naval Air Station          9.80          249
     FL     Crestview                            5.44          138

     Almost all of the heavy precipitation associated with Bill in the
  coastal region lay to the east of the storm's track.  Baton Rouge, LA,
  which lay northwest of the track, received a 3-day total of only
  1.84 inches, or 47 mm.

  (b) Two-day rainfall totals exceeding 4 inches (102 mm) for the 48-hour
  period ending at 1400 UTC on 2 July:
     State  Location                          Total (in)    Total (mm)
     GA     Gainesville                          4.24          108
     AL     Coden                                6.78          172
     AL     Bay Minette                          6.58          167
     AL     Mobile                               6.29          160

  (c) One-day rainfall totals exceeding 3 inches (76 mm) for various
  24-hour periods:

  State  Location              24 hours ending    Total (in)     Total (mm)
  MS     Hattiesburg           0000 UTC 2 July       3.38            86
  AL     Auburn                0000 UTC 2 July       4.35           110
  AL     Calera                0000 UTC 2 July       3.31            84
  AL     Evergreen             0000 UTC 2 July       3.27            83
  GA     Gainesville           0000 UTC 2 July       3.72            94
  GA     Peachtree City        0000 UTC 2 July       3.14            80
  GA     Rome                  0000 UTC 2 July       3.09            78
  GA     Atlanta               0000 UTC 2 July       3.02            77
  SC     Florence              0000 UTC 3 July       3.12            79
  SC     Darlington            0000 UTC 3 July       3.09            78
  VA     Charlottesville       1200 UTC 3 July       5.01           127

     Jacksonville, NC, recorded a six-hour total of 4.09 inches, or
  104 mm, between 1200 and 1800 UTC on 2 July.

  D. Damage and Casualties

     In addition to the coastal flooding and heavy rain, Tropical Storm
  Bill produced at least five confirmed tornadoes.   One of the tornadoes
  struck Reserve, Louisiana, damaging 20 mobile homes and injuring four
  people.  The total damage estimate for Bill is currently placed at
  $30 million, and four deaths have been attributed to the storm.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)


  NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180

  Activity for June:  2 tropical storms

                        Sources of Information

     Most of the information presented below was obtained from the
  various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction
  Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida (or the
  Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, Hawaii, for
  locations west of longitude 140W):  discussions, public advisories,
  forecast/advisories, tropical weather outlooks, special tropical
  disturbance statements, etc.  Some additional information may have
  been gleaned from the monthly summaries prepared by the hurricane
  specialists and available on TPC/NHC's website.  All references to
  sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise

                Northeast Pacific Tropical Activity for June

     On average the Northeast Pacific basin produces two tropical storms
  during the month of June with one reaching hurricane intensity.  This
  year, two storms developed but neither reached hurricane status, so the
  overall level of tropical cyclone activity was a little below normal.
  Tropical Storm Blanca developed around mid-month off the Mexican coast
  southeast of Manzanillo and drifted erratically for several days,
  eventually dissipating not too far from its point of origin.  A few days
  later short-lived Tropical Storm Carlos popped up southeast of Acapulco,
  and instead of following the forecast west-northwestward track parallel
  to the Mexican coastline, moved northward and inland near Puerto
  Escondido.  Carlos was showing hints of an eye as it made landfall, and
  another 12 to 18 hours over the warm Pacific waters would likely have 
  resulted in Carlos reaching hurricane intensity.  Reports on Blanca and
  Carlos, written by John Wallace, follow.  (A special thanks to John for
  his assistance.)

     Another tropical disturbance deserves mention.  As the month of May
  closed, a large area of disturbed weather southeast of Acapulco began to
  show some signs of organization.   The system drifted northward toward
  the coast and by the afternoon of 1 June was centered roughly 100 nm
  south-southeast of Acapulco and had become better organized.  A potential
  for tropical depression development was noted in the Tropical Weather
  Outlooks issued by TPC/NHC, but the broad center reached the coast near
  Acapulco by late in the day, thereby putting the brakes on any further
  intensification.  However, the attendant heavy rainfall posed a threat
  of flooding and landslides over a wide area for several days as the
  weakening disturbance moved slowly northward.

                         TROPICAL STORM BLANCA
                             17 - 22 June

  A. Storm History

     The disturbance that became Blanca was first visible just off the
  Mexican coast south of Acapulco late on 15 June.   Cyclonic organization
  was definitely evident the following day, and the LOW steadily organized
  until it was upgraded to Tropical Depression Two-E at 0300 UTC on
  17 Jun when located about 175 nm south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.
  Steering currents were very weak in its vicinity, which was a little
  unusual for its time of year and position.  Nevertheless, they were able
  to impart an initially slow northwesterly motion.

     The overall environment of Two-E was not conducive to much
  strengthening:  its proximity to land threatened it with dry air
  entrainment, it was close to unfavorably cool waters, and modest
  easterly shear impeded its development at first.  Even so, Two-E
  organized enough to warrant its upgrade to Tropical Storm Blanca by
  2100 UTC on 17 June when centered approximately 165 nm south-southeast
  of Manzanillo, and according to the NHC, a TRMM pass had already
  indicated a partial low-level eyewall at 1945 UTC that day.  That said,
  Blanca's convection waxed and waned in a diurnal pattern that made its
  intensification slow and occasionally uncertain, especially once
  persistent easterly shear impinged on the circulation.  This upper-level
  easterly current was in fact the main factor in pushing Blanca on a slow
  westward track, away from its originally threatening northwesterly one.
  This picayune tropical cyclone--with gale-force wind radii of only
  40 to 50 nm--was tough, however, and endured the shear enough to reach
  its peak MSW of 55 kts, with an estimated CP of 997 mb, at 0300 UTC on
  19 June.  At the time of its peak intensity Blanca was centered about
  150 nm south-southwest of Manzanillo.
     Blanca began a weakening trend immediately after its peak, due to a
  combination of shear and cooler SSTs across its track.   Much as during
  its intensification phase, Blanca's decline was slow and uncertain as
  its convection and organization fluctuated day by day.  In fact, whether
  Blanca truly weakened at all is open to debate--it may have had a second
  peak around 1400-1600 UTC on the 19th when the NHC noted that multi-
  spectral satellite imagery revealed a "low and mid-level eye feature"
  (1).  Similar convective cycles enabled Blanca to hold on to tropical
  storm strength until 2100 UTC on 20 June, when its low and mid-level
  circulations were decoupled by the easterly shear.    The depression
  drifted very slowly westward in erratic, stop-start fashion, with
  occasional bursts of convection that kept it alive longer than expected.
  Late in its life the depression actually took an unusual drift to the
  east as it became caught up in low-level southwesterly flow off the
  Mexican coast.   The final advisory on Tropical Depression Blanca was
  issued at 1500 UTC on 22 June.  Vague hints of its vortex remained
  visible offshore in satellite imagery until late the following day.

  B. Damage and Casualties
     There are no known casualties or damages associated with Tropical
  Storm Blanca.

  C. References


  (Report written by John Wallace)

                        TROPICAL STORM CARLOS
                            26 - 27 June

  A. Storm History

     The precursor disturbance of Carlos was first noted as a cyclonic
  whorl of convection in the Pacific southwest of Nicaragua in satellite
  imagery taken late on 23 June.  The LOW uneventfully tracked slowly
  west-northwestward over the next two days with little change in
  organization until late on the 25th, whereupon it was upgraded to
  Tropical Depression Three-E at 0300 UTC on 26 June when it was roughly
  175 nm south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.

     The new depression was not in an ideal environment, due to  possible
  interference from land and modest northeasterly shear.  Though it was
  forecast to parallel the Mexican coast, its proximity warranted the
  issuance of watches and warnings for the coast upon its upgrade.  The
  cyclone defied the forecasts, however.  The ridge that was predicted to
  steer the system out to sea did not materialize as soon as expected, and
  Three-E drifted northward as it strengthened to Tropical Storm Carlos
  at 1800 UTC on 26 June roughly 155 nm southeast of Acapulco.  Synoptic
  conditions became more favorable, and Carlos strengthened quickly,
  reaching its peak MSW of 55 kts, with an estimated CP of 994 mb, as it
  made landfall at 0600 UTC on the 27th at a location roughly 25 nm north-
  west of Puerto Escondido, Mexico.  Carlos nearly became a hurricane;
  NHC discussions around the time of landfall state that a well-defined
  eye was present as it crossed the coast, so the 55-kt estimate may well
  be conservative.

     Carlos dissipated rapidly over the mountainous terrain of Mexico as
  it turned west-northwestward and accelerated slightly.  Though a LLCC
  was doubtful by 1500 UTC on the 27th (1), the NHC kept the system in
  advisory status until 2100 UTC that day when they issued the last
  advisory on Tropical Depression Carlos.  Carlos' remnant vortex drifted
  offshore, and retained cyclonic structure until late on the 30th when it
  finally dissipated.

  B. Damage and Casualties

     There are some reports of a few casualties resulting from Carlos,
  but unfortunately there is no solid official data available on them at
  the present time.

  C. References


  (Report written by John Wallace)


  NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180

  Activity for June:  1 typhoon

                        Sources of Information

     Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
  cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
  by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
  Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.   In the companion
  tropical cyclone tracks file, I normally annotate track coordinates
  from some of the various Asian warning centers when their center
  positions differ from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more.   All
  references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period
  unless otherwise noted.

     Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the
  Typhoon 2000 website, normally sends me cyclone tracks based upon
  warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the
  Philippines' Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services
  Administration (PAGASA).  Also, Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City, China,
  sends me each month tracks obtained from warnings issued by the
  National Meteorological Center of China (NMCC), the Central Weather
  Bureau of Taiwan (CWBT) and the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO).  A very
  special thanks to Michael and Chunliang for the assistance they so
  reliably provide.

     In the title line for each storm I have referenced all the cyclone
  names/numbers I have available:   JTWC's depression number, the 
  JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator,
  and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their
  area of warning responsibility.

                 Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for June

     Only one tropical cyclone formed in the Northwest Pacific basin during
  June, but it was a very impressive one.  Typhoon Soudelor (named Egay by
  PAGASA) formed shortly before mid-month deep in the tropics well to the
  east of the Philippines.   The cyclone moved westward, then took a jog
  northward as it neared the Philippine archipelago, moving roughly
  parallel to the islands from Samar to northeastern Luzon.  After moving
  past Luzon, Soudelor/Egay finally reached typhoon intensity, steadily
  intensifying as it moved northward east of Taiwan.  Peak intensity of
  115 kts was reached as Soudelor passed west of Okinawa.  After that, the
  storm turned north-northeastward as it began to weaken and passed through
  the narrow slot between South Korea and Japan into the Sea of Japan where
  it became extratropical.  A full report on Typhoon Soudelor follows,
  written by Kevin Boyle with some additional material from Huang Chunliang
  and Karl Hoarau.    (A special thanks to all these gentlemen for their
  assistance and inputs.)

     One other tropical storm was active in Western Pacific waters during
  June.  On 1 June Tropical Depression 06W (named Dodong by PAGASA), which
  had formed in the South China Sea in late May, was upgraded to Tropical
  Storm Nangka.  Nangka subsequently followed a northeasterly track through
  the Luzon Strait, passing between Luzon and Taiwan, and soon lost its
  tropical characteristics east of Taiwan.  The full report on Tropical
  Storm Nangka/Dodong can be found in the May summary.

                          TYPHOON SOUDELOR
                      (TC-07W / TY 0306 / EGAY)
                            11 - 23 June

  Soudelor: submitted by Micronesia, is the name of a legendary
            Pohnpei chieftain

  Egay: PAGASA name, is a Filipino female nickname

  A. Storm Origins

     The summary for the eventful Typhoon Soudelor begins at 2100 UTC,
  9 June.   At this time JTWC issued a TCFA for a circulation centre
  located near 8.9N, 145.5E (approximately 270 nm south of Guam).  The
  position was based on 09/1730 UTC satellite imagery.   Animated enhanced
  infrared satellite imagery revealed that deep convection continued to
  organize around the well-defined LLCC while a 09/1650 UTC TRMM pass
  showed organizing low-level cloud lines associated with the LLCC.  Upper-
  level analysis showed a favourable wind shear pattern but with marginal
  outflow aloft.  The system was moving westward at 10 kts with an
  estimated MSW and CP of 20-25 kts and 1004 hPa, respectively.  By 10/2100
  UTC the disturbance had continued westward to a position approximately
  210 nm east of Yap (9.7N, 141.8E).  Animated infrared satellite imagery
  by then revealed decreasing deep convection over an exposed LLCC.  Upper-
  level analysis was at this time depicting low to moderate vertical wind
  shear with poor diffluence aloft.   Based on this JTWC opted to issue a
  second TCFA rather than writing the first warning.

     JTWC issued the first warning on Tropical Depression 07W at 1800 UTC
  on 11 June after satellite CI estimates had reached 25 kts with the
  system exhibiting a 0.2 spiral band wrap.  The depression was near 9.4N,
  137.3E, or approximately 50 nm west of Yap, moving westward at 14 kts.
  The system continued to slowly develop through the 12th, although a
  12/1214 UTC SSM/I pass and recent enhanced infrared satellite animation
  revealed a rather weak and disorganized system with the LLCC difficult to
  pinpoint with confidence.  By 1800 UTC, however, TD-07W began to compose
  itself with animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery, 12/1657 UTC
  AMSU and 12/1538 UTC TRMM passes indicating a 0.4 spiral band wrap.
  TD-07W began to move more northwestward at a slower pace (6 kts) for
  awhile in response to interaction with a cyclonic circulation centred to
  the east-southeast near 8.8N, 138.9E.  (JTWC issued a STWO statement on
  this LLCC at 13/0100 UTC, assessing the development potential as poor.)
  The fact that TD-07W was still located in a monsoon trough environment
  and the close proximity of the second disturbance likely inhibited

  B. Storm History

     By 13/0000 UTC TD-07W began to move west and further from the
  hindering cyclonic circulation, and in response to this, the MSW
  increased first to tropical storm strength, then to 45 kts six hours
  later.  At 13/0000 UTC JMA upgraded the LOW to a 30-kt tropical
  depression in their High Seas bulletins, and upgraded to tropical storm
  intensity twelve hours later, assigning the name Soudelor.  (NMCC, CWBT
  and PAGASA had by this time all upgraded Soudelor to tropical storm
  intensity.)  Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery showed well-
  defined spiral bands on both equatorward and poleward sides.   This
  strengthening phase was thwarted by a TUTT cell located to the east, and
  at 1800 UTC the MSW had increased only 5 kts more to 50 kts.  The system
  was also beginning its approach towards the Philippines at this time.
  PAGASA had begun issuing warnings on the system at 12/1800 UTC, naming
  the system Egay, the Filipino name for the cyclone.
     At 0000 UTC on 14 June Tropical Storm Soudelor/Egay was located
  85 nm east of Samar, Philippines, or near 12.2N, 127.1E, with the MSW
  easing a little to 45 kts.   At this time the cyclone was moving westward
  at 10 kts.  The Prognostic Reasoning issued by JTWC at 14/0000 UTC fore-
  cast a more northerly heading within 24 hours as a longwave trough off
  the Chinese coast dug into the mid-level ridge northeast of Soudelor.
  This forecast verified and by 15/0000 UTC, Soudelor was moving toward
  the north at 10 kts in response to the developing weakness.    The
  intensity of Soudelor/Egay had remained steady at 45 kts through the
  14th, and microwave imagery revealed a partially-exposed LLCC at the
  northern edge of the deep convection.
     There was nothing more to add as the 15th dawned.  The MSW remained
  at 45 kts and the LLCC was still partially-exposed.  At 0000 UTC Tropical
  Storm Soudelor was located 130 nm northeast of Samar (14.2N, 126.6E),
  moving north at 10 kts.  By 15/1200 UTC things had begun to liven up when
  animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery showed an increase in deep
  convection over the LLCC.  Based on satellite CI estimates of 45 kts and
  55 kts, JTWC increased the MSW to 55 kts, and six hours later to 60 kts.
  During the 15th and into the 16th, Soudelor/Egay was stair-stepping its
  way north or northwestward (at around 10 kts) along the western periphery
  of the mid-level ridge to the east.   This path took the storm roughly
  parallel to the Philippines' northeastern coastline and into HKO's AOR
  at 15/1800 UTC with that agency then initiating warnings.   A 15/2203 UTC
  SSM/I pass showed that the deep convection had continued to organize
  around the LLCC.   Spiral bands were wrapping into the system from the
  south, and outflow conditions were improving with the longwave trough
  aiding diffluence to the north of the system.   After remaining at 60 kts
  intensity for much of the 16th, Soudelor finally became a typhoon at
  16/1800 UTC.  (JMA did not upgrade Soudelor to typhoon intensity until
  17/1200 UTC.)   A 16/1330 UTC SSM/I 37-GHz pass revealed a well-defined
  15-nm banding eye.   The newly-upgraded typhoon was beginning to link up
  with the approaching longwave trough to the west, and this system was to
  drag Soudelor off on a north or northeasterly track which would take it
  towards the southern Japanese island chain.   At 16/1800 UTC the eye was
  fixed uncomfortably close (50 nm) to the northeastern coastline of Luzon
  near 19.0N, 122.9E with the MSW estimated at 65 kts.

     Strengthening continued as the typhoon began to pull away from the
  Philippines.  (Soudelor/Egay left PAGASA's AOR at 18/0000 UTC and HKO's
  AOR at 18/0600 UTC.)  The MSW had increased to 75 kts by 0000 UTC,
  17 June, and animated multi-spectral satellite imagery revealed a ragged,
  irregular-shaped 30-nm eye.   The diameter of the eye shrunk to 12 nm as
  the MSW increased to 90 kts by 1800 UTC later that same day.    At 1800
  UTC, Typhoon Soudelor was passing to the east of Taiwan with the outer
  portion of the circulation setting off thunderstorm activity as seen in
  satellite animation.  The intensification phase lasted into the 18th and
  a peak intensity of 115 kts was reached at 18/0600 UTC.  (JMA's peak
  intensity of 80 kts (10-min avg) with an estimated CP of 955 mb occurred
  at 18/1200 UTC.)  A symmetrical 18-nm eye was noted in multi-spectral
  imagery at this time.  The system had by then moved to a position 190 nm
  west of Naha, Okinawa (26.3N, 124.2E), trekking northward at 13 kts and
  heading toward Japan.  Upper-level analysis indicated that opportunities
  for further strengthening were dwindling fast and that the typhoon had
  already entered a region of unfavourable wind shear.   By 1800 UTC the
  spiral bands took on a more ovate appearance, the eye faded, and the MSW
  dropped to 85 kts.

     The downward spiral continued.  The 0000 UTC, 19 June JTWC warning
  located the centre of Soudelor near 32.5N, 128.5E, or 70 nm southwest of
  Sasebo, Japan.  Water vapor imagery indicated that the system was
  beginning to resemble a cold-core mid-latitude system.   The MSW had
  fallen to 75 kts and continued to decrease, falling below typhoon-force
  at 19/0600 UTC as Soudelor trekked west of Japan, past the southeastern
  coast of South Korea, and into the Sea of Japan.      JTWC downgraded
  Soudelor to a tropical storm at 19/1200 UTC and declared it extratropical
  six hours later.  The final warning placed the centre 160 nm northwest of
  Wajima, Japan, or near 39.7N, 134.9E.  JMA ended warning transmissions
  at 19/1800 UTC.  The extratropical remnants of once-powerful Typhoon
  Soudelor turned eastward, crossing northern Japan, and were last
  referenced at 0000 UTC on 23 June as a weakening 25-kt LOW far to the
  east of Honshu.

  C. Meteorological Observations

     Karl Hoarau forwarded the following rainfall observations from the
  Philippines.  (Thanks to Karl for passing along this information.)

  (1) 24-hour period from 0000 UTC June 14th to 0000 UTC June 15th:

     WMO 98546  Catarman (12.65N, 124.6E)         330mm (13 inches)
     WMO 98550  Tacloban (11.2N, 125E)            155mm (6.1 inches)
     WMO 98447  Virac radar (13.7N, 124.3E)        87mm (3.4 inches)
     WMO 98444  Legaspi (13.1N, 123.8E)            50mm (1.96 inches)

  (2) Six-hour total from 0000 UTC to 0600 UTC 15th June:

     WMO 98440  Daet (13.5N, 123.3E)               98mm (3.88 inches)
     WMO 98444  Legaspi (13.1N, 123.8E)            31mm (1.22 inches)
     WMO 98446  Virac airport (13.6N, 124.2E)     118mm (4.65 inches) 
     WMO 98447  Virac radar (13.7N, 124.3E)        64mm (2.52 inches) 

  (3) The lowest recorded sea level pressure was 997.3 hPa at Casiguran
      (WMO 98336 - 16.3N, 122.1E) at 1000 UTC 16 June.  Some other
      pressure readings include:

     WMO 98447  Virac radar (13.7N, 124.3E)    999.4 hPa at 15/0500 UTC
     WMO 98233  Tuguegarao  (17.6N, 121.7E)    997.5 hPa at 16/0800 UTC
     WMO 98232  Aparri  (18.4N, 121.6E)        998.1 hPa at 16/1000 UTC

     Huang Chunliang has sent some wind observations from station
  Iriomotejima, Okinawa (WMO 47917 - 24.4N, 123.8E).  (Thanks to
  Chunliang for sending this information.)

     Iriomotejima experienced sustained gale-force winds (10-min avg)
  at least from 17/2000 UTC through 18/0400 UTC with the exception of
  17/2100 UTC when the station was in the typhoon's eye.  The peak hourly
  MSW of 56 kts occurred at 2200 UTC shortly after passage of the eye.
  The minimum SLP of 968.1 hPa occurred around 2100 UTC during eye
  passage.  Regarding the peak gust, Chunliang indicates that the maximum
  he could find was 104 kts.  However, Section E is an analysis of
  Soudelor's intensity by Karl Hoarau, and he references a peak gust of
  110 kts at Iriomotejima.

  D. Damage and Casualties

     Heavy rains unleashed by Typhoon Soudelor/Egay are known to have
  caused 11 deaths and 3 injuries in the Philippines.  At last report,
  two persons were still missing.  The Department of Social Welfare and
  Development declared on 17 June that 16,131 families had been displaced
  in the northern and central provinces of Sorsogon, Albay, Catanduanes
  and Camarines Sur by floods caused by the torrential downpours associated
  with Soudelor.

     Heavy rains also caused flooding, landslides, and mudflows in Taiwan.
  One of the major highways connecting Hsitou and Luku was blocked when a
  10-km stretch of road in Nantou County was covered by debris and mud.
  Taipei's Sungshan Airport was forced to close three times as a result of
  the bad weather.  There are no reports of casualties.

     A North Korean ship cargo loaded with industrial magnesium was
  stranded off the northwest coast of Japan after being refused entry into
  the Japanese port of Toyama.  The Suyangsan had failed a safety check
  and had no lifeboats.  The 874-ton vessel, with a crew of 16, had been
  anchored since 12 June and lay in the path of Typhoon Soudelor.
  Negotiations were being made between the captain and Toyama authorities
  for refueling arrangements.  It is unknown what the final outcome was.

     Twenty-one storm-related injuries were reported in Japan as a result
  of Soudelor, mostly people struck by falling objects.  None were serious.
  Damage statistics appear to have been light in Japan.   However, there 
  was damage to 26 houses:  mainly dislodged tiles, broken windows, and
  shattered walls.      Nearly 10,000 households were left without
  electricity.   Transportation was disrupted with numerous flight
  cancellations. Train services in northern Kyushu were halted because of
  the bad weather.

  E. Analysis of Soudelor's Intensity

     The following was sent to me by Dr. Karl Hoarau.  It is an analysis
  of Soudelor's intensity near the time of its passage over the station
  of Iriomotejima (WMO 47917 - 24.8N, 123.8E).  I have reproduced it
  just as Karl sent it with some minor editing.  (A special thanks to
  Karl for sending his analysis.)

     "There are some interesting features to notice when Typhoon Soudelor
  passed through the small Japanese islands on 17 June.  Iriomotejima
  recorded a maximum gust of 110 kts from east-northeasterly winds in
  the northern eyewall.  At 17/2100 UTC, while located in the elongated
  eye (12 x 7 nm) of Soudelor, the station recorded a minimum sea-level
  pressure of 968.1 hPa with winds of 7 kts.  The gust of 110 kts
  corresponds to a MSW (1-min avg) of 90 kts.  The pressure/wind relation-
  ship of Atkinson and Holliday (1977) still used in the NWP gives a CP
  of 954 hPa for 90 kts.  A possible explanation for this feature is the
  small size of Soudelor's core.  At 2100 UTC, situated 19 nm east of the
  eye's center, Ishigakijima recorded a SLP of 983.5 hPa and a 10-min avg
  wind of 42 kts (50 kts at 1900 UTC when the eye's center was 35 nm to
  the southwest).  The station just missed the eastern eyewall as Soudelor
  was moving to the north-northeast at 13 kts.  Most of the time for this
  type of track, the strongest winds are located in the eastern eyewall.
  But the F14 SSM/I overpass at 18/0014 UTC showed that the strongest
  convection was situated in the north and northwest portions of the
  eyewall.  So, the intensity of the typhoon was probably near 90 or
  95 kts if we consider that it is not certain if Iriomotejima recorded
  the strongest winds.

     "The Dvorak manual (subjective) T-numbers were at least 5.0 after
  1400 UTC, and at 5.5 from 2000 UTC to 0230 UTC on the 18th.  When Typhoon
  Soudelor passed over Iriomotejima at 2100 UTC, it displayed an Off-White
  embedded in a White ring.  As the eye was elongated, a raw satellite Data
  T-number of 6.5 could not be retained.  In fact, there is a rule in the
  Dvorak method (1984) about that:  no plus adjustment can be made for
  large eyes (> 3/4 degree diameter within the surrounding Gray shade) or
  for elongated eyes.  When no previous subtraction is made, 0.5 can be
  subtracted for elongated eyes having E (eye) numbers > 4.5.  Elongated
  eyes are defined as those having a short axis < 2/3 the long axis within
  the surrounding Gray shade.  Therefore, the raw data T-number was 5.5
  at 2100 UTC.  As Soudelor possessed an elongated eye most of the time
  until 18/0000 UTC, the satellite data T-number reached 6.0 only for 2-3
  hours before that time and never after.

     "It appears the typhoon reached its peak around 18/0230 UTC with a
  warm (+19.7 C) and circular eye embedded in a Light Gray ring (raw data
  T-number of 5.5 for the last time).  The visual picture revealed that
  the CDO had a 92-nm diameter.  It is certain that after 2100 UTC on
  17 June Soudelor kept on intensifying.  At 2200 UTC, the pressure was
  still 970.7 hPa at Iriomotejima (968.1 hPa in the eye at 2100 UTC)
  when the center was 12 nm distant.  Located in the southern eyewall,
  the station recorded a sustained wind of 60 kts (10-min avg).  This is
  an indication that the pressure was still falling."

     In summary, Karl indicates that his estimate for the peak intensity
  of Soudelor was 105 kts at 18/0600 UTC (JTWC's estimate was 115 kts
  at that hour).

  (Report written by Kevin Boyle with contributions by Huang Chunliang
  and Karl Hoarau.)


  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

  Activity for June:  No tropical cyclones


  SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E

  Activity for June:  No tropical cyclones



  Activity for June:  No tropical cyclones



  Activity for June:  1 tropical cyclone of gale intensity
                      1 interesting hybrid storm system

                        Sources of Information

     The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
  Northeast Australia/Coral Sea tropical cyclones are the warnings
  and advices issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at
  Brisbane, Queensland, and Darwin, Northern Territory, and on very
  infrequent occasions, by the centre at Port Moresby, Papua New
  Guinea.  References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging
  period unless otherwise stated.

     In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
  annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
  Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
  Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from the Australian centres' coor-
  dinates by usually 40-50 nm or more.  The JTWC warnings are also the
  source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included
  in the tracks file.   Additionally, information describing details of
  satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in
  the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings.

                      Northeast Australia/Coral Sea
                       Tropical Activity for June

     In May, 2002, Tropical Cyclone Upia became the first tropical cyclone
  to be named by the Port Moresby, PNG, tropical cyclone warning centre
  in their small AOR in nine years.   But they had only one year to wait
  before naming the next.  Tropical Cyclone Epi formed on 5 June deep in
  the tropics east of New Guinea and south of New Britain.  Epi, however,
  had a short life of only 12 hours as a tropical cyclone before being
  downgraded to a depression.   A report on Tropical Cyclone Epi is
  included below, written by Simon Clarke.  (A special thanks to Simon
  for his assistance.)

     Also included is a report on an interesting hybrid storm system off
  the Queensland coast in late June which brought strong winds and heavy
  rainfall to portions of the Queensland and New South Wales coastlines.

                          TROPICAL CYCLONE EPI
                               5 - 7 June
     Tropical Cyclone Epi was the first tropical cyclone of the season to
  develop in the small AOR of the TCWC at Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea.
  Epi follows Tropical Cyclone Upia, which formed in a similar location
  late in the 2002 season.  (A description of Upia can be found in the
  tropical cyclone summary for May, 2002)

     Epi formed at approximately 0630 UTC, 5 June 2003, near 7.9S, 152.9E, 
  or about 50 nm northwest of Woodlack Island, from an area of fairly
  persistent convection stretching from New Guinea across toward the 
  north of Fiji.    Epi was a very short-lived cyclone, and was in all 
  likelihood hampered in its development by a strengthening tropical LOW
  to its southeast.    This tropical LOW eventually developed into a
  tropical cyclone and was named Gina.  (A report on Gina follows in the
  section of this summary covering the South Pacific basin.)  The second
  PNG warning at 05/1100 UTC placed Epi's centre about 65 nm northeast
  of Woodlack.  The third and final warning at 05/1800 UTC located the
  weakening system about 40 nm east of the 1100 UTC position with winds
  having fallen below gale force.

     Jeff Callaghan from the Queensland Bureau of Meteorology makes the 
  following observations (note some text editing for clarity):

     "The ascending QuikScat image shows a LOW developing on the south-
     western end of a shear line.  The satellite infrared sequence (Dvorak 
     enhancement) shows the development of a large curved band following 
     the QuikScat pass.  This band proceeded to be a feature during most
     of the daylight hours and had a 0.7 or 0.8 wrap (depending on the
     analyst).  So it looked like a rapidly developing cyclone.  There was
     no coverage over the system from the descending QuikScat pass, and
     after this the cloud features began to break up around 05/1400 UTC
     when strong northeasterly upper-level winds developed over the centre.
     Initially, the system appeared to be moving slowly west.   However,
     Epi then paused and moved toward the east (indicating possible inter-
     action with Gina).  This resulted in Epi's demise and weakening below
     cyclone status."

     Convection persisted in the vicinity of the former Tropical Cyclone
  Epi for several days.  However, proximity to Gina ensured that conditions
  remained unfavourable for redevelopment.
     It is not clear exactly how intense Epi became during its life.  A 
  minimum central pressure of 985 hPa was advised, probably based on 
  Dvorak analysis which showed a curved band pattern with a 0.8 wrap 
  giving a T3.5.  This intensity may in hindsight have been an over-
  estimation.  It is noted that southwest winds of 30 kts between New 
  Ireland and Bougainville were verified by two ships, giving credence 
  to the presence of an area of gales under the deep convection.
     With respect to intensity, Jeff Callaghan points out the problem in 
  these parts is that cyclones develop very rapidly in an area where 
  there is almost no data.  Rapidly developing cyclones in this area can 
  be a major problem and have caused much loss of life.  On some occasions 
  destruction has occurred without warnings being issued.  So, there is a
  need for timely warnings as various islands can quickly come under the
  influence of a tropical cyclone.  A precautionary approach is therefore
  wise in this part of the world, especially considering that in the scheme
  of things, cyclones are very rare in this area.  (Note:  JTWC did not
  recognise Epi as a tropical cyclone, although a TCFA was issued at
  0900 UTC on 5 June.  The TCFA was cancelled at 06/0530 UTC after the
  system had weakened.)

     Several warnings were issued by the Papua New Guinea National Weather 
  Service based in Port Moresby with warnings issued for coastal and 
  island communities between Woodlack Island and Kiriwina Island.  Watches
  were also issued for the rest of Milne Bay Islands.
     No reports of damage or casualties resulting from Tropical Cyclone 
  Epi have been received.

  (Report written by Simon Clarke)

                         Queensland Hybrid LOW
                             24 - 26 June

  A. Storm History

     In late June an interesting meteorological situation developed just
  off the Queensland coast.  The Brisbane warning centre issued gale
  warnings on a LOW from the 24th through the 26th.  This system formed
  in the tropics but had more of the characteristics of a hybrid storm.
  At 1600 UTC on 24 June the LOW was centred about 150 nm east-
  northeast of Townsville.  The system moved generally southeastward
  fairly quickly and by 0600 UTC on the 26th had reached a position
  approximately 325 nm east-southeast of Brisbane.  The highest winds
  forecast in the Brisbane warnings were 45 kts (10-minute mean), but
  sustained winds to 53 kts were recorded at Lord Howe Island as the
  storm passed just to the west of that station on the 26th.

     Bob Hart of Pennsylvania State University examined the storm's
  evolution with the cyclone phase space.  According to Bob, the system
  evolved on 25 and 26 June from a decidedly cold-core, thermally
  asymmetric structure to a much more symmetric, shallow warm-core
  structure in a fairly short period of time.   The system's phase
  trajectory was similar to that of some subtropical cyclones in the
  North Atlantic (such as the early states of Hurricanes Karen and
  Olga in 2001).   Jack Beven of TPC/NHC noted that the system initially
  had a very baroclinic appearance similar to nor'easters off the U. S.
  East Coast, and although it later developed some central convection
  and possibly an eye-like feature, it still displayed a pronounced
  baroclinic cloud band.   The PSU phase space diagrams for the system
  can be found at the following link:>

     Another interesting feature of this storm system was a small trough
  system which circulated around the parent LOW.  This small cyclonic
  eddy moved inland into northeastern New South Wales and southeastern
  Queensland where it caused localized severe wind damage and brought
  torrential rain.

  B. Meteorological Observations

  (1) Rainfall Reports

     Matthew Saxby of Queanbeyan, New South Wales, sent me some rainfall
  observations he'd obtained.   Below are listed 24-hour totals which
  exceeded 63 mm (~2.5 inches) for 24, 25 and 26 June.  (A special thanks
  to Matthew for sending the information.)

       24 June: 0000 - 2300 UTC

       Mt. Charlton, Qld         104 mm
       Dalrymple Hts, Qld         80 mm
       Mackay, Qld                80 mm
       Mirani, Qld                80 mm
       Mackay East, Qld           69 mm
       Mackay Airport, Qld        63 mm

       25 June: 0000 - 2300 UTC

       Warroo, Qld                66 mm

       Ballina Airport, NSW      190 mm
       Ballina, NSW              160 mm
       Alstonville, NSW          118 mm
       Nambucca Heads, NSW        68 mm
       Woodburn, NSW              67 mm
       Macksville, NSW            66 mm

       26 June: 0000 - 2300 UTC

       Tomewin, Qld              108 mm

       Byron Bay, NSW            176 mm
       Mullumbimby, NSW          138 mm
       Murwillumbah              113 mm
       Cape Byron AWS, NSW       107 mm
       Ballina, NSW              106 mm
       Tweed Heads, NSW           79 mm

  (2) Wind Reports

     Jeff Callaghan of the Brisbane TCWC sent along some wind observations
  from Lord Howe Island (31.5S, 159.0 E) as the system passed just to the
  west of that station.  All the observations were taken on 26 June.  (A
  special thanks to Jeff for passing along the information.)

      Time        Wind Dir      MSW (10-min)        MSLP
      (UTC)        (deg)           (kts)            (hPA)

      0530           90              40            1004.9
      0700           90              41            1000.0
      0858           80              48             994.2
      0944           80              53             992.8
      0956           80              53             991.6
      1014           60              50             993.7
      1039           50              40             993.8
      1057           70              50             992.6
      1119           60              48             993.1
      1200           50              40             993.5

  C. Storm Effects

     Six fishermen from the 25-metre, 80-ton vessel "Tan Sula" were
  rescued 32 nm east of Cape Byron on the northern NSW coast on 27 June
  by being winched onto two helicopters from Brisbane and Lismore.  Seas
  on the Gold Coast of Queensland were large with significant wave
  heights to 4.3 m at the Brisbane wave rider buoy on 26 June.  In NSW
  significant heights reached 5.5 m on the 27th at Coffs Harbour.  Surfers
  were injured by the large waves and there were six major rescues off
  the NSW coast by lifeguards.

     Rivers overflowed in northern NSW causing flooding around Murwillum-
  bah, Mullumbimby and Byron Bay.  Police rescued a 14-year old boy at
  Stokers Siding, 50 km from Byron Bay, who tried to save a calf from
  rising waters and became trapped in a tree.  A fire brigade helped to
  evacuate children from two schools in the Brunswick region because
  buses were unable to cross the flooded roads.   The large waves made
  river entrances in northern NSW and southern Queensland virtually

     The small trough system circulating around the larger LOW caused
  localized severe wind damage on the southern Gold Coast.  Trees were
  brought down and a dozen homes were damaged by fallen trees, which
  also caused power outages.  The Coolangatta AWS recorded 10-min avg
  winds to 34 kts for a brief period of less than 30 minutes.

     The above information was sent by Jeff Callaghan.  Carl Smith, who
  lives on the Gold Coast, had the following to say:

     "As 'the Duck' (i.e., the larger LOW) passed here well off the
  coast and travelling southward, a cyclonic eddy formed closer to the
  coast, pushing heavy convective clouds over northeastern NSW, dumping
  torrential rains which caused flash floods and landslips.  The main
  shopping area in Byron Bay was sandbagged to prevent floods damaging
  shops, and several towns in the area were flooded up to about 2 metres

     "As the heavy convection moved into southeastern Queensland, gale-
  force winds buffetted the Gold Coast for many hours beginning around
  midday.  I estimated that wind gusts here reached about 70 kts several
  times between 3pm and 5pm AEST (0500-0700 UTC), bringing down trees
  and power lines.  We lost power here at about 4pm.  Torrential rain
  fell into the evening as the winds eased--power was restored at about

  (Thanks to Carl for his comments).

  (Report written by Gary Padgett, based upon inputs from Jeff Callaghan,
  Matthew Saxby, Carl Smith, Bob Hart and Jack Beven)


  SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E

  Activity for June:  1 tropical cyclone of hurricane intensity

                        Sources of Information

     The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
  South Pacific tropical cyclones are the warnings and advisories
  issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Nadi, Fiji (for
  waters north of latitude 25S), and Wellington, New Zealand (for
  waters south of latitude 25S).  References to sustained winds imply
  a 10-minute averaging period unless otherwise stated.

     In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
  annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
  Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
  Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from the Southern Hemisphere
  centres' coordinates by usually 40-50 nm or more.  The JTWC warnings
  are also the source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind
  values included in the tracks file.    Additionally, information
  describing details of satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation
  features included in the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC

                  South Pacific Tropical Activity for June

     The 2002-2003 tropical cyclone season in the South Pacific east of
  160E was the most active and vigorous since the great 1997-1998 season.
  Through the end of April, eight tropical cyclones had been named, along
  with one visitor from the Brisbane AOR.  Six of these cyclones, including
  Erica from the Australian Region, were intense tropical cyclones.  It
  appeared that the season had ended very quietly with short-lived, minimal
  Tropical Cyclone Fili in mid-April.   However, things took a different
  turn in early June.  A tropical disturbance in the Solomon Islands began
  to intensify, and Tropical Cyclone Gina was named on the 5th.  Gina moved
  initially southwestward and almost became an intense cyclone as winds
  reached 80 kts (90 kts 1-min avg from JTWC).  However, as the cyclone
  approached the 18th parallel, it turned sharply to the southeast and
  weakened very rapidly.  In its early formative stages Gina affected the
  small island of Tikopia, which was blasted by extremely intense Tropical
  Cyclone Zoe in late December.  The following report on Gina was authored
  by Simon Clarke--a special thanks to Simon for his assistance.

                         TROPICAL CYCLONE GINA
                           (TD-17F / TC-29P)
                               4 - 9 June

  A. Storm Origins

     Gina was a rare June cyclone in the Southwest Pacific, and coupled 
  with Tropical Cyclone Epi, which formed for a short while to Gina's 
  northwest, brought an unusual conclusion to the most active season
  in that basin in five years.

     Gina was first identified as a westward-moving depression well to
  the northeast of Vanuatu within an area of fairly persistent convection 
  stretching to the west toward the Solomon Islands.  JTWC was quick to 
  pick up the system, and by late on 4 June 2003 had upgraded the initial 
  depression to cyclone status (TC-29P) while located some 610 nm east of 
  Honiara, Solomon Islands.  At this time, RSMC Nadi identified the system
  as a tropical depression (TD-17F) and commenced issuing advisories and
  gale warnings.

  B. Storm History

     TD-17 continued to move towards the west-southwest at 5 kts under the 
  steering influence of the low to mid-level ridge to the south.  Under 
  ever-improving upper-level outflow conditions, Gina was named by RSMC 
  Nadi at Jun 05/0600 UTC near 11.4S, 169.1E, or approximately 550 nm
  east-southeast of Honiara.

     During the course of 6 June 2003, Gina gradually increased its forward
  momentum to 10 kts while steadily intensifying.  By June 07/0000 UTC and 
  near 15.8S, 163.0E, or about 425 nm south-southeast of Honiara, Gina
  attained a CP of 970 hPa and hurricane status with winds of 65 kts.  A
  ragged cloud-filled eye subsequently became more distinct in satellite
  pictures.   Organization remained good, although the convection was
  diminishing gradually, perhaps in response to the nearby remnants of
  Tropical Cyclone Epi.

     Peak intensity was attained at Jun 07/1200 UTC with the storm near
  16.8S, 162.1E, or approximately 365 nm west-northwest of Port Vila,
  Vanuatu.  The peak intensity was maintained for 12 hours.  Gina had 
  attained a minimum CP of 950 hPa with a MSW (10-min avg) of 80 kts 
  close to the centre.  At this time Gina was a compact cyclone with a 
  distinct eye.  (JTWC's peak 1-min avg MSW was 90 kts, in excellent 
  agreement with Nadi's estimate.)

     After this time, the cyclone approached a region of stronger shear 
  and cooler SSTs.  Gina slowed its west-southwesterly momentum and
  turned toward the southeast and then east-southeast in response to a 
  short-wave trough approaching from the west, south of 20S. 

     Gina's demise was rapid with convection torn away from the LLCC to 
  the southeast by the strong shear.  The 08/1800 UTC warning from Nadi
  placed the centre of the weakening storm near 18.2S, 164.8E, or about
  200 nm west-southwest of Port Vila.  However, an interim advisory was
  issued at 2200 UTC relocating Gina to a point approximately 200 nm to
  the northwest of the 1800 UTC position.  This relocation, no doubt,
  was based upon the receipt of early morning visible satellite imagery.
  By Jun 09/0600 UTC Gina had lost cyclone status near 16.4S, 162.0E, or
  approximately 375 nm west-northwest of Port Vila.   At the time, the
  precise location of the centre was difficult to locate.   However, it
  was clear that the remnant depression had stalled, becoming almost
  stationary.  Gale warnings for winds of up to 40 kts associated with
  the remnants of Gina were issued through 10/0700 UTC, after which time
  the winds eased below gale force.

  C. Damage and Casualties

    Tropical Cyclone Gina was to spend its entire life at sea.   In its
  early stages of formation, the cyclone was reported to have affected
  the island of Tikopia, which was battered by the very intense Tropical
  Cyclone Zoe in December, 2002.  However, there were no specific reports
  of damage or loss of life.  The Australian media reported that the vessel
  'Grace 2' sailing from Bowen (North Queensland) to Vanuatu foundered
  when it encountered Tropical Cyclone Gina on 8 June 2003.  A mayday was
  broadcast, and in a 3-hour rescue operation, the Indonesian Ship 'Daio
  Copihue' picked up the crew while en route from New Zealand to Japan.

  (Report written by Simon Clarke)


                               EXTRA FEATURE

     In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
  material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
  acronyms.   I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
  in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then.  Most of
  these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
  few aren't clear to some.  To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
  Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the July, 1998
  summary.  I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in
  order to help keep them from being too long.  If anyone would like to
  receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy
  to send them a copy.


  AUTHOR'S NOTE:  This summary should be considered a very preliminary 
  overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
  tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
  warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers.  The
  information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
  intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
  on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
  on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
  centers will be passed along from time to time.

    The track files are not being sent via e-mail.  They can be retrieved
  from the archive sites listed below.  (Note: I do have a limited e-mail
  distribution list for the track files.    If anyone wishes to receive
  these via e-mail, please send me a message.)

    Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
  created in DOS editor.  Download to disk and use a viewer such as
  Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.

     The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
  1997.   Back issues can be obtained from the following websites
  (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, and
  Chris Landsea):>> OR>>>

     Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
  be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office.  Their site
  contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
  globally on a monthly basis.  The URL is:>


     JTWC now has available on its website the complete Annual Tropical 
  Cyclone Report (ATCR) for 2002 (2001-2002 season for the Southern 
  Hemisphere).  ATCRs for earlier years are available also.  
     The URL is:>

     Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
  tracking charts for the 2002 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
  tropical cyclones; also, preliminary storm reports for all the 2002
  Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as
  well as track charts and reports on storms from earlier years.

     The URL is:>

     A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales,
  Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries.


  Gary Padgett
  E-mail:  [email protected]
  Phone:  334-222-5327

  John Wallace  (Eastern North Pacific, North Indian Ocean, Western
                 Gulf of Mexico)
  E-mail:  [email protected]

  Kevin Boyle  (Eastern Atlantic, Western Northwest Pacific, South
                China Sea)
  E-mail:  [email protected]

  Simon Clarke  (Northeast Australia/Coral Sea, South Pacific)
  E-mail:  [email protected]


Document: summ0306.htm
Updated: 27th December 2006

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