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Tropical Cyclone YANI [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WWPS22 ABRF 220224 IDQ20016 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Queensland Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre SOLOMON ISLANDS ADVISORY Issued at 0131 UTC on 22/11/06 Special Advisory Number 3 Tropical Cyclone Yani At 220225 UTC Tropical Cyclone Yani was located near : Latitude: 12.2S Longitude: 162.5E Position accuracy - fair. Fix based on 220133UTC MTSAT vis. Recent movement SE at 4 knots. Intensifying Central pressure 995 hPa. Expect sustained clockwise winds of 35 knots within 120 nautical miles of the centre on the southeast semicircle, and within 60 nautical miles on the northwestern semicircle, increasing to 45 knots in the next 12-24 hours. Forecast position at 221200 UTC near: Latitude: 13.2 S Longitude: 162.5E Forecast position at 230000 UTC near: Latitude: 14.0 S Longitude: 162.5E The next advisory will be issued by 230430UTC. ========================================================================= WWPS22 ABRF 220443 IDQ20016 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Queensland Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre SOLOMON ISLANDS ADVISORY Issued at 0443 UTC on 22/11/06 Special Advisory Number 4 Tropical Cyclone Yani At 220225 UTC Tropical Cyclone Yani was located near : Latitude: 12.1S Longitude: 162.6E Position accuracy - fair. Fix based on 220233UTC MTSAT vis. Near stationary. TC Yani is expected to slowly intensify. Central pressure 995 hPa. Expect sustained clockwise winds of 35 knots within 120 nautical miles of the centre on the southeast semicircle, and within 60 nautical miles on the northwestern semicircle, increasing to 45 knots in the next 12-24 hours. TC Yani is expected to move slowly SSW during the next 24 hours though there is a spread of model outcomes ranging from NW to SW forecast movement. So confidence in forecast movement is fair. Upper level pattern favourable for further development with system centre positioned on southern side of upper ridge in low shear and good outflow channel in southern quadrants. Forecast position at 221200 UTC near: Latitude: 13.2 S Longitude: 162.5E Forecast position at 230000 UTC near: Latitude: 14.0 S Longitude: 162.5E The next advisory will be issued by 220730UTC. ========================================================================= WWPS22 ABRF 220733 IDQ20016 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Queensland Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre SOLOMON ISLANDS ADVISORY Issued at 0655 UTC on 22/11/06 Special Advisory Number 5 Tropical Cyclone Yani At 220225 UTC Tropical Cyclone Yani was located near : Latitude: 12.6S Longitude: 162.3E Position accuracy - fair. Fix based on 220633UTC MTSAT vis. Movement slowly south. TC Yani is expected to slowly intensify. Central pressure 990 hPa. Expect sustained clockwise winds of 40 knots within 120 nautical miles of the centre on the southeast semicircle, and within 60 nautical miles on the northwestern semicircle, increasing to 45 knots in the next 12-24 hours. Current movement of TC Yani is slowly south. There is a spread of model guidance ranging from NW to SW forecast movement over the short to medium term. Most NWP has some sort of westward movement in the medium term. Rennell Is could come under the influence of the northern gales as the system moves west, possibly Thursday evening. Deep CB near centre with cloudband displaying increasing wrapping near system centre. Upper level pattern favourable for further development with system centre positioned on southern side of upper ridge in low shear and good outflow channel in southern quadrants. Forecast position at 221800 UTC near: Latitude: 12.6 S Longitude: 161.9E Forecast position at 230600 UTC near: Latitude: 13.0 S Longitude: 161.5E The next advisory will be issued by 221030UTC. ========================================================================= WWPS22 ABRF 221026 IDQ20016 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Queensland Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre SOLOMON ISLANDS ADVISORY Issued at 1012 UTC on 22/11/06 Special Advisory Number 6 Tropical Cyclone YANI at 220933 UTC Located at.. Latitude: 12.7S Longitude: 162.6E Moving: South at: 4 knots Central Pressure: 990 hPa Mean maximum winds to 40 knots with maximum gusts to 55 knots. The system is intensifying. Expect gales out to 120 miles from the centre in the southeastern semicircle and 60 miles from the centre in the northwestern semicircle. Position fair. YANI continues to slowly intensify under generally favourable conditions and may develop mean maximum winds to 50 knots [category 2] within the next 12 to 24 hours. Recent movement has been slowly southward in a weak steering environment. Most NWP guidance indicates a westerly component to the movement developing in the short to medium term, though NWP models vary on whether the ultimate track will be SW, W, or even WNW. Gales may develop about Rennell Island during the next 24 hours as the system deepens and/or undertakes a more westerly track. Forecast position at 221800 UTC Latitude: 12.6S Longitude: 161.9E Forecast position at 230600 UTC Latitude: 13.0S Longitude: 161.5E The next Special Advisory will be issued at: 1330UTC ========================================================================= WWPS22 ABRF 221332 IDQ20016 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Queensland Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre SOLOMON ISLANDS ADVISORY Issued at 1321 UTC on 22/11/06 Special Advisory Number 7 Tropical Cyclone YANI at 221233 UTC Located at.. Latitude: 12.7S Longitude: 162.6E Moving: South at: 3 knots Central Pressure: 987 hPa Mean maximum winds to 45 knots with maximum gusts to 65 knots. The system is intensifying. Expect gales out to 120 miles from the centre in the southeastern semicircle and 60 miles from the centre in the northwestern semicircle. Position fair. YANI continues to slowly intensify under generally favourable conditions and may develop mean maximum winds to 50 knots [category 2] within the next 12 hours. Movement during the last 12 hours has been slowly southward in a weak steering environment. Most NWP guidance indicates a westerly component to the movement developing in the short to medium term, though NWP models vary on whether the ultimate track will be SW, W, or even WNW. The scenario considered most likely is that the system will continue moving slowly south for 6 to 12 hours and then turn SW or WSW some time on Thursday. Gales may develop about Rennell Island during the next 24 hours as the system deepens and/or undertakes a more westerly track. Forecast position at 230000 UTC Latitude: 12.9S Longitude: 162.5E Forecast position at 231200 UTC Latitude: 13.4S Longitude: 161.7E The next Special Advisory will be issued at: 1930UTC ========================================================================= WWPS22 ABRF 221930 IDQ20016 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Queensland Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre SOLOMON ISLANDS ADVISORY Issued at 1912 UTC on 22/11/06 Special Advisory Number 8 Tropical Cyclone YANI at 221800 UTC Located at.. Latitude: 12.9S Longitude: 162.8E Moving: South-southeast at: 3 knots Central Pressure: 985 hPa Mean maximum winds to 50 knots close to the centre, increasing to 55 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours with maximum gusts to 75 knots. The system is intensifying. Expect gales out to 120 miles from the centre in the southeastern semicircle and 90 miles from the centre in the northern semicircle. Storm force winds within 30 miles of the centre. Position fair. YANI continues to slowly intensify under generally favourable conditions. Movement during the last 12 hours has been slowly south-southeast in a weak steering environment. Most NWP guidance indicates a westerly component to the movement developing in the short to medium term, though NWP models vary on whether the ultimate track will be SW, W, or even WNW. The scenario considered most likely is that the system will continue moving slowly south for 6 to 12 hours and then turn W or WSW later today. Gales may develop about Rennell Island during the next 24 hours as the system deepens and/or undertakes a more westerly track. Forecast position at 230600 UTC Latitude: 12.8S Longitude: 162.4E Forecast position at 231800 UTC Latitude: 12.9S Longitude: 161.8E The next Special Advisory will be issued at: 2230UTC ========================================================================= WWPS22 ABRF 222004 IDQ20016 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Queensland Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre CORRECTION SOLOMON ISLANDS ADVISORY Issued at 2000 UTC on 22/11/06 Special Advisory Number 9 Tropical Cyclone YANI at 221800 UTC Located at.. Latitude: 12.9S Longitude: 162.8E Moving: South-southeast at: 3 knots Central Pressure: 985 hPa Mean maximum winds to 50 knots close to the centre, increasing to 60 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours with maximum gusts to 80 knots. The system is intensifying. Expect gales out to 120 miles from the centre in the southeastern semicircle and 90 miles from the centre in the northwestern semicircle. Storm force winds within 30 miles of the centre. Position fair. YANI continues to slowly intensify under generally favourable conditions. Movement during the last 12 hours has been slowly south-southeast in a weak steering environment. Most NWP guidance indicates a westerly component to the movement developing in the short to medium term, though NWP models vary on whether the ultimate track will be SW, W, or even WNW. The scenario considered most likely is that the system will continue moving slowly south for 6 to 12 hours and then turn W or WSW later today. Gales may develop about Rennell Island during the next 24 hours as the system deepens and/or undertakes a more westerly track. Forecast position at 230600 UTC Latitude: 12.8S Longitude: 162.4E Forecast position at 231800 UTC Latitude: 12.9S Longitude: 161.8E The next Special Advisory will be issued at: 2230UTC ========================================================================= WWPS22 ABRF 222238 IDQ20016 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Queensland Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre SOLOMON ISLANDS ADVISORY Issued at 2202 UTC on 22/11/06 Special Advisory Number 10 Tropical Cyclone YANI at 222133 UTC Located at.. Latitude: 12.6S Longitude: 162.6E Moving: North-northwest at: 4 knots Central Pressure: 985 hPa Mean maximum winds to 50 knots close to the centre, increasing to 60 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours with maximum gusts to 80 knots. The system is intensifying. Expect gales out to 120 miles from the centre in the southeastern semicircle and 90 miles from the centre in the northwestern semicircle. Storm force winds within 30 miles of the centre. Position fair. YANI continues to slowly intensify under generally favourable conditions. Movement during the last 12 hours has generally been slowly south-southeast in a weak steering environment, though recently shifted slowly to north-northwest. Most NWP guidance indicates a westerly component to the movement developing in the short to medium term, though NWP models vary on whether the ultimate track will be SW, W, or WNW. The scenario considered most likely is that the system will continue to be slow moving for the next 6 hours or so, then adopt a W or WSW movement later today. Gales may develop about Rennell Island during the next 12 to 24 hours as the system deepens and/or maintains a westerly track. Forecast position at 230600 UTC Latitude: 12.8S Longitude: 162.4E Forecast position at 231800 UTC Latitude: 12.9S Longitude: 161.8E The next Special Advisory will be issued at: 0130UTC ========================================================================= WWPS22 ABRF 230136 IDQ20016 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Queensland Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre SOLOMON ISLANDS ADVISORY Issued at 0050 UTC on 23/11/06 Special Advisory Number 11 Tropical Cyclone YANI at 230100 UTC Located at.. Latitude: 12.6S Longitude: 162.9E Moving: East at 5 knots Central Pressure: 980 hPa Mean maximum winds to 55 knots close to the centre, increasing to 65 knots in the next 12 hours with maximum gusts to 90 knots. The system is intensifying. Expect gales out to 120 miles from the centre in the southeastern semicircle and 90 miles from the centre in the northwestern semicircle. Storm force winds within 30 miles of the centre. Position fair. YANI continues to slowly intensify under generally favourable conditions. Satellite imagery indicating tight wrap of deep convection around cyclone centre nearly indicating a closed eye system. Movement during the last 12 hours has been slow and cyclic in a weak steering environment, though expected movement will be towards the southwest within the next 12 to 24 hours. Most NWP guidance indicates a westerly component to the movement developing in the short to medium term, though NWP models vary on whether the ultimate track will be SW, W, or WNW. The scenario considered most likely is that the system will continue to be slow moving for the next 6 hours or so, then adopt a W or WSW movement later today. Gales may develop about Rennell Island during the next 12 to 24 hours into Friday as the system deepens and/or maintains a westerly track. Forecast position at 231200 UTC Latitude: 12.6S Longitude: 162.5E Forecast position at 240000 UTC Latitude: 12.9S Longitude: 161.7E The next Special Advisory will be issued at: 0430UTC ========================================================================= WWPS22 ABRF 230437 IDQ20016 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Queensland Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre SOLOMON ISLANDS ADVISORY Issued at 0413 UTC on 23/11/06 Special Advisory Number 12 Tropical Cyclone YANI at 230400 UTC Located at.. Latitude: 13.0S Longitude: 163.1E Moving: Southeast at 7 knots Central Pressure: 975 hPa Mean maximum winds to 55 knots close to the centre, increasing to 65 knots in the next 12 hours with maximum gusts to 90 knots. The system is intensifying. Expect gales out to 120 miles from the centre in the southeastern semicircle and 90 miles from the centre in the northwestern semicircle. Storm force winds within 30 miles of the centre. Position good. YANI continues to slowly intensify under generally favourable conditions. Satellite imagery indicating an eye feature. Movement during the last 12 hours has been slow and cyclic and now in a SE direction at 7 knots. Movement is still expected towards the southwest within the next 12 to 24 hours. Most NWP guidance indicates a westerly type component to the movement developing in the short to medium term, though NWP models vary on whether the ultimate track will be SW, W, or WNW. The scenario considered most likely is that the system will continue to be slow moving for the next 6 hours or so, then adopt a W or WSW movement tonight. Gales may develop about Rennell Island during the next 12 to 24 hours into Friday as the system deepens and/or maintains a westerly track. Forecast position at 231200 UTC Latitude: 12.6S Longitude: 162.5E Forecast position at 240000 UTC Latitude: 12.9S Longitude: 161.7E The next Special Advisory will be issued at: 0730UTC ========================================================================= WWPS22 ABRF 230742 IDQ20016 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Queensland Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre SOLOMON ISLANDS ADVISORY Issued at 0657 UTC on 23/11/06 Special Advisory Number 13 Tropical Cyclone YANI at 230700 UTC Located at.. Latitude: 13.3S Longitude: 163.1E Moving: South southeast at 7 knots Central Pressure: 970 hPa Mean maximum winds to 65 knots close to the centre, increasing to 75 knots in the next 12 hours with maximum gusts to 100 knots. The system is intensifying. Expect gales out to 120 miles from the centre in the southeastern semicircle and 90 miles from the centre in the northwestern semicircle. Storm force winds within 50 miles of the centre. Hurricane force winds within 30 miles of centre. Position good. YANI continues to slowly intensify under generally favourable conditions. Satellite imagery indicating a banded eye feature. Movement during the last 12 hours has been slow and cyclic and now in a SSE direction at 7 knots. Movement is still expected towards the south southwest within the next 12 to 24 hours. NWP guidance is indicating two differing scenarios with regards to system movement, the favoured one moving SSW initially in the next 12 hours then turning more westerly during Friday. The other and less favourable scenario is for a westward movement during the next 24 hours. The possibility of gales affecting Rennell Island will decrease during the next 24 hours as Yani follows its current course. Forecast position at 231800 UTC Latitude: 14.0S Longitude: 162.7E Forecast position at 240600 UTC Latitude: 14.5S Longitude: 162.1E The next Special Advisory will be issued at: 1030UTC ========================================================================= WWPS22 ABRF 231011 IDQ20016 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Queensland Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre SOLOMON ISLANDS ADVISORY Issued at 0843 UTC on 23/11/06 Special Advisory Number 14 Tropical Cyclone YANI at 231000 UTC Located at.. Latitude: 13.5S Longitude: 163.0E Moving: South at 5 knots Central Pressure: 965 hPa Mean maximum winds to 70 knots close to the centre, increasing to 80 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours with maximum gusts to 100 knots. The system is intensifying. Expect gales out to 120 miles from the centre in the southeastern semicircle and 90 miles from the centre in the northwestern semicircle. Storm force winds within 50 miles of the centre. Hurricane force winds within 30 miles of centre. YANI is expected to gradually shift to a southwest track during the next 24 hours, but will continue to move further away from the Solomon Islands. The area of gales has now contracted well south of Rennell Island and gales will not affect any part of the Solomon Islands while the cyclone follows the current and forecast track. Forecast position at 231800 UTC Latitude: 14.0S Longitude: 162.7E Forecast position at 240600 UTC Latitude: 14.5S Longitude: 162.1E This is the Final Special Advisory in this series. ========================================================================= WHPS01 NFFN 231200 Hurricane Warning 018 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 23/1307 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone YANI [960hPa] centre was located near 13.6 South 162.9 East at 231200 UTC. Position good. Repeat position 13.6S 162.9E at 231200 UTC. Cyclone moving south at about 04 knots but is expected to turn towards the southwest in the next 12 to 24 hours. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 75 knots close to the centre increasing to 85 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Expect winds over 63 knots within 30 miles of centre over 47 knots within 50 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle and within 90 miles of centre in the northwestern semicircle. Forecast position near 14.8S 163.0E at 240000 UTC and near 15.3S 162.7E at 241200 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 017. ========================================================================= WHPS01 NFFN 231800 Hurricane Warning 019 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 23/1907 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone YANI [960hPa] centre was located near 13.8 South 163.0 East at 231800 UTC. Position good. Repeat position 13.8S 163.0E at 231800 UTC. Cyclone moving towards the south at about 04 knots but is expected to gradually turn towards the south-southwest. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 75 knots close to the centre increasing to 85 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Expect winds over 63 knots within 30 miles of centre over 47 knots within 50 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle and within 90 miles of centre in the northwestern semicircle. Forecast position near 14.5S 162.7E at 240600 UTC and near 15.2S 162.4E at 241800 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 018. ========================================================================= WHPS01 NFFN 240000 Hurricane Warning 020 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 24/0100 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone YANI [960hPa] centre was located near 14.2 South 163.1 East at 240000 UTC. Position good. Repeat position 14.2S 163.1E at 240000 UTC. Cyclone moving towards the south at about 04 knots but is expected to gradually turn towards the south-southwest. Cyclone weakening. Expect sustained winds of 75 knots close to the centre decreasing to 55 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Expect winds over 63 knots within 30 miles of centre over 47 knots within 50 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle and within 90 miles of centre in the northwestern semicircle. Forecast position near 15.1S 162.9E at 241200 UTC and near 15.9S 162.5E at 250000 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 019. ========================================================================= WHPS01 NFFN 240600 Hurricane Warning 021 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 24/0713 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone YANI [975hPa] centre was located near 14.4 South 162.9 East at 240600 UTC. Position poor. Repeat position 14.4S 162.9E at 240600 UTC. Cyclone moving towards the south at about 03 knots but is expected to gradually turn towards the southwest. Cyclone weakening. Expect sustained winds of 65 knots close to the centre decreasing to 50 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Expect winds over 63 knots within 30 miles of centre over 47 knots within 50 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle and within 90 miles of centre in the northwestern semicircle. Forecast position near 15.3S 162.8E at 241800 UTC and near 16.2S 162.5E at 250600 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 020. ========================================================================= WTPS01 NFFN 241200 STORM Warning 022 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 24/1311 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone YANI [987hPa] centre was re-located near 13.1 South 161.4 East at 241200 UTC. Position poor. Repeat position 13.1S 161.4E at 241200 UTC. Cyclone moving west-northwest at about 08 knots. Cyclone weakening rapidly. Expect sustained winds of 50 knots close to the centre decreasing to 35 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 20 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle and within 80 miles of centre in the northwestern semicircle. Forecast position near 12.9S 161.1E at 250000 UTC and near 12.2S 161.9E at 251200 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 021. ========================================================================= WTPS01 NFFN 241500 GALE Warning 023 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 24/1740 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone YANI [995hPa] centre was located near 13.1 South 161.7 East at 241500 UTC. Position fair. Repeat position 13.1S 161.7E at 241500 UTC. Cyclone has become slow moving and continues to weaken rapidly. Expect sustained winds of 40 knots close to the centre decreasing to below gale force in the next 6 to 9 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle and within 80 miles of centre in the northwestern semicircle. Forecast position near 13.3S 160.3E at 250300 UTC and near 13.9S 159.6E at 251500 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 022. =========================================================================
Document: yani.htm
Updated: 26th November 2006 |
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