[Index]
Tropical Cyclone 200704
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]
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Tropical Cyclone 200704 [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTPS31 PGTW 20061130 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 7.7S 164.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.7S 164.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 8.0S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 8.5S 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 9.4S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 10.9S 161.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 7.8S 163.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 04P WILL
TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED NORTH OF FIJI. TC 04P WILL INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATALOGICAL
RATE DUE TO FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 300552Z
NOV 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 300600)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20061130 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 8.1S 163.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.1S 163.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 8.8S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 9.4S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 10.4S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 11.5S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 8.3S 163.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST-NORTH-
EAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT EQUATORWARD OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM NEW ZEALAND TO NEW CALEDONIA. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL
INDUCE A SLOW TRACK TOWARD THE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH
TAU 24. AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD, THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EAST OF THE STORM WILL BUILD WESTWARD BY TAU 48, PROVIDING A
STRONGER SOUTHWARD STEERING CURRENT AND A SLIGHT ACCELERATION IN TRACK.
TC 04P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS
IT TRACKS TOWARD A MODERATE WIND SHEAR GRADIENT TO ITS SOUTH. THIS
HIGHER SHEAR ZONE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE JET AND WILL
MIGRATE FURTHER SOUTH AFTER TAU 48, CREATING A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
301800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z AND 012100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20061201 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 11.2S 164.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 164.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 12.7S 164.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 13.9S 165.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 14.5S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 14.8S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 11.6S 164.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED. A 010309Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THIS RELOCATED
POSITION, WHICH IS APPROXIMATELY 195 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS
WARNING POSITION. TC 04P WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED WEST OF FIJI.
TC 04P WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO
GOOD OUTLFOW ALOFT AND THEN WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO, WITH TRACKS RANGING FROM WEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE, WBAR, AFWA MM5, AND FBAM
SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z AND 020900Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20061201 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 12.4S 165.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 165.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 13.6S 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 14.2S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 14.8S 166.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.4S 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 165.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM EAST-SOUTH-
EAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE MIDLATITUDE JET.
TC 04P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD INTO THIS HIGH SHEAR REGION
TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEST OF FIJI. CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BE DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
AFTER TAU 48, A RELAXATION IN THE SHEAR GRADIENT IS FORECAST AS AN
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS SOUTH OF TC 04P, AND SOME REINTENSIFICATION MAY
BE POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z AND 022100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20061202 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 12.6S 164.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 164.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 13.1S 164.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 164.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM SOUTHEAST
OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND MICRO-
WAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
HAS FULLY DECOUPLED FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM AND CURRENT UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED DISSIPATION. THEREFORE, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 12 FEET.//
|
Document: 200704.htm
Updated: 3rd December 2006 |
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