[Index]
Tropical Cyclone BECKY
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone BECKY [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTPS31 PGTW 20070326 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 13.2S 163.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 163.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 13.6S 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 14.2S 166.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 15.2S 167.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 16.4S 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 163.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTHEAST OF
HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
A 260704Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A WELL CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULA-
TION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WINDS OF AT LEAST 35 KNOTS. A 260703Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
THE CURRENT TRACK IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONCENSUS OF MODEL
GUIDANCE. A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF TC 21P IS THE
STEERING INFLUENCE FOR THE SYSTEM AND WILL KEEP IT ON A EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
ENHANCING OUTFLOW ON THE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD SIDES OF THE
SYSTEM. THE DISTURBANCE LIES UNDER THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE,
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. IN THE
LATER TAUS A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF
AUSTRALIA COULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, INCREASING
THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 997 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 11
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z AND 271500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20070327 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (BECKY) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 14.1S 165.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 165.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 14.6S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 15.6S 167.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 17.0S 167.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.6S 168.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 165.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM SOUTHEAST OF
HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED AT A
GREATER-THAN-
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES NOW
RANGING FROM T3.5 TO T4.0. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEVELOPED DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES. A 262108Z SSMI IMAGE ALSO INDICATES A CON-
SOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. A 261935Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH UNFLAGGED
WINDS OF 40 KNOTS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A TIGHT CLUSTER OF AIDS INDICATING A SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWARD
TRACK. TC 21P IS FORECAST TO TRACK BETWEEN A SHARP, POLEWARD ORIENTED
MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST AND A RIDGE TO ITS EAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE BY A BROAD MIDLATITUDE TROUGH EAST OF AUSTRALIA. FEATURE TRACK
WINDS SHOW THAT THIS TROUGH AXIS IS POSITIONED ALONG 155E AND IS
DEEP, EXTENDING NORTHWARD UP TO 17S. ADDITIONALLY, UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM. THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD SO TC 21P IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z AND
280300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20070327 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (BECKY) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (BECKY) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 166.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 166.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.8S 167.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 19.7S 167.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.9S 167.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 21.9S 167.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 166.5E.
0123456789012345678901234567890123456789012345678901234567890123456789
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM NORTHWEST OF
PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED STEADILY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATING
INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. TC 21P IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BETWEEN AN EXTENTION OF THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH TO ITS
WEST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
PATTERN, BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AFTER TAU 24 AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET. AN
ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IS PRODUCING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH OF
TC 21P, AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW THE
TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE SOUTHWEST THE SYSTEM. THIS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION AT A GREATER THAN CLIMATO-
LOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGHER VWS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z AND
281500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20070328 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (BECKY) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 18.0S 167.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 167.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 19.5S 168.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.8S 168.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 21.7S 168.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 22.3S 167.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 167.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH THE LARGER ISLANDS OF NORTHERN
VANUATU. CURRENT SYSTEM INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
65 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 272056Z
SSMIS IMAGE SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS SLOWLY
WEAKENED AND DECREASED IN AREAL EXTENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE
LATEST TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGE ALSO SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING
INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. TC 21P
CONTINUES TO BE STEERED WITHIN ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND A SHARP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO
ITS WEST. TC 21P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD INTO
A HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 36. AFTERWARDS,
THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME SHEARED AND STEER AT THE LOW-LEVELS AND WILL
TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 BUT DIVERGE AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY WEAKENS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF DYNAMIC
AIDS. TC 21P IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 24 BUT WILL
RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS IS ALREADY INDICATING MODERATE SHEAR VALUES OVER THE
SYSTEM WITH AN ANTICYCLONE DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW AT 200MB INDICATED. THIS SUPPORTS THE DECREASE IN INTENSITY
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TC 21P IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AFTER
TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z AND 290300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20070328 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (BECKY) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (BECKY) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 19.7S 168.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 168.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.7S 168.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 21.7S 168.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 22.5S 167.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 168.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM NORTHEAST OF
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 281114Z TRMM PASS INDICATES A MORE WELL-
DEFINED MID LEVEL THAN LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, AND DECOUPLING BETWEEN
UPPER AND LOWER LEVELS IS BEGINNING. UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS IN THE
REGION INDICATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES OF 30-35 KNOTS
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF TC 21P. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE HIGHER VWS, AND WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN. TC 21P WILL
DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z AND 291500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20070329 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (BECKY) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 20.7S 167.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 167.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 21.0S 167.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 21.2S 166.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 167.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM NORTHEAST OF
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 282044Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATE A DISSIPATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER AND AN ABSENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED
RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND SOME ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR. TC 21P IS NOW BEING STEERED
BY THE LOWER LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW DUE
TO THE WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN, BEFORE DISSIPAT-
ING OVER WATER BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20070329 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (BECKY) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 21.4S 167.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 167.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 21.9S 167.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 167.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21P (BECKY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75
NM NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A SERIES OF RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGES INDICATE A COMPLETE LOSS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS, AND CONCURRENT DISSIPATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION OF THE LLCC HAS RESULTED FROM THE LACK OF A CON-
VECTIVE SIGNATURE IN INFRARED IMAGERY. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION
IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT DISSIPATES.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 11 FEET.//
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Document: becky.htm
Updated: 30th March 2007 |
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