[Index]
Tropical Cyclone CLOVIS
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone CLOVIS [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTXS31 PGTW 20061231 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301351Z DEC 06//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 13.9S 55.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 55.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 14.4S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 15.0S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 15.7S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.5S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 54.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM NORTH
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 310228 SSMI IMAGE DEPICT DEEP CON-
VECTION WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A PREVIOUSLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE BASED ON PER-
SISTENCE AND AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 301351Z DEC 06
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 301400) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
312100Z AND 010900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20061231 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CLOVIS) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 15.5S 54.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 54.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.9S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 18.0S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.6S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 19.1S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 54.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CLOVIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 06S IS TRACKING TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE AXIS CAUSED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. STORM MOTION WILL CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL, ALLOWING
FOR THE RIDGE TO BUILD FROM THE EAST, SLOW THE STORM SLIGHTLY AND STEER
IT MORE TO THE WEST. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSFIED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS
DUE TO GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS TREND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM. PAST TAU 24, THE BUILDING
RIDGE SHOULD ELIMINATE THIS OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND SLOW THE RATE OF
STRENGTHENING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z AND 012100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 200701 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CLOVIS) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 17.5S 52.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 52.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 18.4S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 19.1S 50.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 19.5S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 20.0S 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 52.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CLOVIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 06S HAS
INTENSIFIED AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THROUGH TAU 24, TC 06S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
NEAR SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR. AFTER TAU 24, A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH CAUSING THE STR TO RE-ORIENT AND STEER
TC 06S WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. FROM THAT POINT, TC 06S WILL WEAKEN
DUE TO RESTRICTED OUTFLOW AND INTERACTION WITH THE TERRAIN OF
MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z AND 020900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070101 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CLOVIS) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 18.7S 51.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 51.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 19.7S 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 20.4S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 21.1S 48.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 21.7S 47.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 51.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CLOVIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM EAST
OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 06S HAS MAINTAINED ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, HOWEVER THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRC-
ULATION CENTER (LLCC). OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS GOOD UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW MAINTAINS.
LANDFALL IS EXPECTED AROUND TAU 36 WHICH WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AT A GREATER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. THE STEERING INFLU-
ENCE FOR THE SYSTEM IS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD AS A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR TRACKS EASTWARD ALLOWING A MORE
ZONAL PATTERN TO ESTABLISH. THIS WILL ALLOW THE TRACK TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
011800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z AND 022100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070102 09:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CLOVIS) WARNING NR 005A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 19.8S 51.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 51.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 20.6S 50.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 21.4S 49.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 22.3S 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 23.2S 47.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 50.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CLOVIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST-
WARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 06S HAS MAINTAINED
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARD
A COL REGION LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR CREATED BY A
TRANSITORY MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD WEAK
RIDGING WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE STORM, CREATING A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK THROUGH TAU 36. BEYOND TAU 36, A SECOND MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL INDUCE A POLEWARD TURN FOR 06S,
CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO SKIRT THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. TC 06S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS DUE TO GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. PAST TAU 24,
INTERACTION WITH THE COAST AND HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CON-
TRIBUTE TO WEAKENING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z AND 030900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
07S (ISOBEL) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED SPELLING IN REMARKS AND ADDED
REFERENCE TO 07S.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070102 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/021352JUN2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CLOVIS) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 20.1S 49.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 49.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 20.3S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 21.0S 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 21.8S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 49.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CLOVIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE HAS
BUILT IN POLEWARD OF TC 06S CAUSING A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE LAST
12 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS AND
LANDFALL IS EXPECT SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO BY TAU 12. AFTER LAND-
FALL, THE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRON-
MENT AND DISSIPATE OVERLAND BY TAU 36. AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH BEYOND TAU 36 WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH
THE REMNANTS OF TC 06S. IF THIS TROUGH WERE TO CAPTURE THE REMNANTS
OF THE SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR REGENERATION OVER WATER TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
021800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z AND 032100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ISOBEL) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070103 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/021352JUN2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CLOVIS) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 20.5S 48.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 48.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 20.7S 48.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 21.2S 47.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 48.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CLOVIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF
MADAGASCAR. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL PRIOR TO
TAU 06 AND STEADILY DISSIPATE DUE TO INTERACTION WITH HIGH
TERRAIN AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE POTENTIAL
REMAINS FOR AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO STEER THE
REMNANTS OF TC 06S OVER WATER AND ALLOW FOR REGENERATION OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR AFTER TAU 24. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNING
AT 032100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ISOBEL) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070103 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/031352JUN2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CLOVIS) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 20.9S 48.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S 48.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 21.2S 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 21.5S 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 48.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CLOVIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS
MOVED WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ANCHORED SOUTHEAST
OF MADAGASCAR. THE STORM HAS WEAKENED AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK
OVER LAND AND INTERACT WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED AND THE CONVECTION IS DISPLACED
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC
06S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS DUE TO LAND INFLUENCES AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE LLCC IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND MORE THAN 20 NM BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT TC06S MAY TRACK
BACK OVER WATER ALLOWING REGENERATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR AFTER TAU 24. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ISOBEL) WARNING (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR THE
FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070104 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/031352JUN2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CLOVIS) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 20.7S 48.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 48.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 21.0S 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 48.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CLOVIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED AND INFRARED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TC 06S HAS CONTINUED TO
WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND AND MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. DEEP CONVECTION HAS WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY, BECOME MORE
DISORGANIZED, AND HAS SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 06S WILL TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD
AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
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Document: clovis.htm
Updated: 4th January 2007 |
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