[Index]
Tropical Cyclone ENOK
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]
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Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone ENOK [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTXS21 PGTW 20070207 10:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 150 NM RADIUS OF 17.9S 50.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35
KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 070600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER
IS LOCATED NEAR 18.1S 50.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.0S
50.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.1S 50.3E, APPROXIMATELY 194 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. BASED ON ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 070305Z QUIKSCAT PASS REVEAL A LOW LEVEL CIRC-
ULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT REMAINS WELL DEFINED, ALTHOUGH IS TRACKING
ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS OVER
THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THERE IS AN AREA OF DIVER-
GENCE LOCATED OVER THE LLCC. CURRENTLY THE PROXIMITY OF THE SYSTEM TO
LAND REMAINS THE MAJOR FACTOR THAT APPEARS TO BE INHIBITING DEVELOP-
MENT AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000
MB. DUE TO DEEP CONVECTION OVER LLCC, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
081000Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070209 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070951Z FEB 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 15.2S 53.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 53.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 14.7S 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.0S 57.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 16.3S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 17.7S 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 54.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 090319Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS INDICATES WELL
DEVELOPED CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A 200 MB ANTICYCLONE TO THE
WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. POLE-
WARD OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY BEING PARTIALLY RESTRICTED BY THE REMNANTS
OF 10S TO ITS SOUTHEAST. TC 13S IS CURRENTLY ON THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). THE STORM WILL CONTINUE
ON A GENERAL EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 24, AT WHICH POINT IT WILL
TURN MORE POLEWARD AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE NER.
THE DYNAMICAL AIDS ARE INDICATING A SHARPER POLEWARD TURN, WITH MANY OF
THE MODELS ABSORBING TC 13S INTO AND THE REMNANTS OF TC 10S. THE
SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AT A WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU
48 DUE TO THE RESTRICTED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 070951Z FEB 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 081000). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 090600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DORA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070209 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (ENOK) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (ENOK) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 56.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 56.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 16.4S 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 18.0S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 19.9S 65.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 21.7S 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 57.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (ENOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW TC 13S ACCELERATING RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD IN
THE GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH-
EAST AND TROUGHING EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE REMNANTS OF
TC 10S TO THE SOUTH. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD, BUT MORE SLOWLY THROUGH TIME AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE NER AND THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WEAKENS. TC 13S HAS INTENSIFIED
AT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DURING THE PAST 12
HOURS, EXHIBITING AN ASYMMETRICAL BANDING EYE FEATURE IN RECENT MIC-
ROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDING A 09/1612Z SSMI PASS. THE STORM
IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH
TAU 24 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. AFTER
TAU 24, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO HINDER FURTHER
SIGNFICANT INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
091800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND 102100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070210 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070951Z FEB 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (ENOK) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 16.9S 60.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 60.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.3S 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.6S 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 23.6S 65.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.8S 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 61.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (ENOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM NORTH-
EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AN EARLIER BURST OF CONVECTION AT THE SYSTEM
CORE IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN, AS ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING. THE SMALL STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE SHARED FLOW BETWEEN
RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST AND TROUGHING EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD FROM
THE LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION THAT WAS ONCE TC 10S. ALTHOUGH
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE IN THE NEAR TERM,
THE STORM WILL ENCOUNTER A REGION OF LOWER-THAN-NORMAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (LESS THAN 26 DEGREES CELCIUS) AND DRIER/MORE STABLE
MID-LEVEL AIR WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070210 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (ENOK) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 19.4S 63.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 63.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 22.0S 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 24.4S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 26.3S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 27.5S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 64.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (ENOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 13S CONTINUES TO TRACK RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD
IN THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST AND TROUGHING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TC 10S TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SOME REDUC-
TION IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE REMNANT LOW OF 10S FILLS AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGHING DISSIPATES. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN VERY SLOWLY
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE
SOUTH OF THE STORM WORK TO OFFSET THE NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF DECREASING
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE STORM IS EXPEC-
TED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48 DUE
TO INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW PATTERN TO THE
SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070211 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (ENOK) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 21.8S 64.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S 64.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 23.7S 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 25.4S 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 64.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (ENOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A CIRCULATION DEVOID OF CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD
INTO A REGION OF MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (AT OR BELOW
26 DEGREES CELCIUS). THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO UNFAVORABLE
FOR THE REGENERATION OF SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ADVECTION OF DRY/STABLE MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR.
GIVEN THE COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF CONVECTION, THE SHALLOW SYSTEM IS
NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW, BUT
RATHER DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER. THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z
IS 12 FEET.//
|
Document: enok.htm
Updated: 11th February 2007 |
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