[Index]
Tropical Cyclone HUMBA
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone HUMBA [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTXS33 PGTW 20070221 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210921Z FEB 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 10.7S 88.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 88.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 11.4S 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 12.3S 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 13.2S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 14.3S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 10.9S 87.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM
WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER A
TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE STORM IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENSION OF A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 48, ALLOWING
THE SYSTEM TO TAKE A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE STORM WILL
INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 36 IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LESS THAN
OPTIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
AFTER TAU 36, DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING POLE-
WARD OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 210921Z FEB 07
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 210930 ) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
220300Z AND 221500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FAVIO)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GAMEDE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20070222 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220151FEB2007//
REF/B/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211952ZFEB2007//
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 11.1S 85.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 85.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 11.8S 83.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 12.7S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 14.0S 79.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 15.5S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 84.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 785 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED MINIMUM TROPICAL
CYCLONE INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 212026Z AMSU MICROWAVE
PASS INDICATES CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHERN TO NORTH-
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A BRANCH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA IS THE CURRENT
STEERING MECHANISM FOR TC 16S. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 85E, AND THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING THIS LOW TO DEEPEN AND BREAK DOWN THE STR
SOUTH OF Tc 16S BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48. THIS BREAK IN THE STR WILL
INDUCE A POLEWARD TURN AND ADDITIONALLY ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THUS, THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP SLOWLY
THROUGH TAU 24, AND THEN WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 220000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z AND 230300Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FAVIO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GAMEDE) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20070222 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221351FEB2007//
REF/B/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220752ZFEB2007//
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 11.4S 84.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 84.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 11.9S 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 12.9S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 14.4S 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 15.8S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 11.5S 83.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 725 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 220746Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 16S
WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A DEVELOPING
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 16S WILL INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO IMPROVING
OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 13
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z AND 231500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
14S (FAVIO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GAMEDE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20070223 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230151FEB2007//
REF/B/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221952ZFEB2007//
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 12.6S 82.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 82.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 13.7S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 15.0S 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 16.5S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 18.3S 78.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 82.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A
230009Z TRMM PASS INDICATE CONVECTION IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO CONSOL-
IDATE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY
PARTIALLY EXPOSED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM. THIS OUTFLOW
CHANNEL WILL PERSIST THROUGH TAU 48, CAUSING TC 16S TO INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ON THE NORTHWESTERN PER-
IPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BRANCH ANCHORED OVER WESTERN
AUSTRALIA. A DEEPENING TROUGH WEST OF THE SYSTEM HAS CREATED A BREAK
IN THE STR, CAUSING A MORE POLEWARD TURN FOR TC 16S. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
230000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z AND 240300Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FAVIO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GAMEDE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20070223 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230752ZFEB2007//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HUMBA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 13.6S 81.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 81.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 15.0S 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 16.5S 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 18.4S 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 20.0S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 80.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HUMBA) LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 81.2E
APPROXIMATELY 640 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 230829Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE
CONVECTION HAS FULLY WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
TC 16S HAS INTENSIFIED AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS DUE TO GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. BEGINNING AT TAU 24, THE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL WEAKEN WHILE THE CURRENTLY WEAK
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY. OVERALL THIS
SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OF INTENS-
IFICATION AFTER TAU 24. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ON THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED OVER WESTERN
AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIG-
NIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z
AND 241500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GAMEDE) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW 230300) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20070224 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231952ZFEB2007//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HUMBA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 15.0S 79.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 79.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 16.6S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 18.3S 77.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 20.0S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 22.0S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 79.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HUMBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ON THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED WEST OF AUSTRALIA.
TC 16S WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH-
OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 16S HAS INTENSIFIED AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS DUE TO GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT
A CLIMOTOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 24. BEYOND TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 241500Z AND 250300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GAMEDE)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW 232100) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20070224 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240752ZFEB2007//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HUMBA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 16.3S 79.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 79.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.9S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.7S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 21.8S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 24.3S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 79.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HUMBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 16S IS TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTH-
WARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AN-
CHORED WEST OF AUSTRALIA. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD
TRACK SPEED AFTER TAU 24 AS A DEVELOPING TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE SYSTEM. THIS DEVELOPING TROUGH IS
ALREADY BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE
SYSTEM, REDUCING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR NEAR STORM CENTER. GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND SUFFICIENT
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO OFFSET THESE NEGATIVE
EFFECTS AND ALLOW THE STORM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24.
THEREAFTER, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO INDUCE BOTH WEAKENING AND, BY TAU 48, THE FIRST PHASE
OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z AND 251500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GAMEDE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20070225 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241952ZFEB2007//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HUMBA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 18.3S 79.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 79.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 20.2S 78.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 22.0S 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 23.8S 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 26.0S 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 79.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HUMBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 770 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 16S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED WEST OF
AUSTRALIA. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 36.
BEYOND THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE POLEWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS
AND THE FORWARD SPEED WILL INCREASE, AS TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTERACTS WITH THE SYSTEM. THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO IMPINGE ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM AND HAS REDUCED UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND INHIBITED SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND SUFFICIENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE OFFSET THESE
NEGATIVE EFFECTS AND HAVE ALLOWED THE STORM TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 16S WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU
12 AND WILL THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO THE FIRST
PHASE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER TAU 36 AND WILL CONTINUE
UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION THROUGH TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
251500Z AND 260300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GAMEDE)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20070225 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250752ZFEB2007//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HUMBA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 20.5S 78.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 78.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 22.6S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 25.0S 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 27.3S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 78.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HUMBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 860 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 16S CONTINUES TO TRACK
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ANCHORED WEST OF AUSTRALIA. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH FORWARD TRACK SPEED GRADUALLY
INCREASING AS THE STORM MOVES AHEAD OF THE STEERING RIDGE AXIS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, EVIDENT IN RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY, HAS BEGUN TO OVERTAKE THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST, IN-
CREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING OUTFLOW ALOFT. CONT-
INUED INTERACTION WITH THIS TROUGH AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING AND THE FIRST PHASE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z AND
261500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GAMEDE) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20070226 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251952ZFEB2007//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HUMBA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 22.2S 77.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S 77.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 24.3S 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 26.6S 78.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 77.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HUMBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 945 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 16S CONTINUES TO TRACK
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ANCHORED WEST OF AUSTRALIA. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A CONTINUED INCREASE IN FORWARD
TRACK SPEED AS THE STORM MOVES AHEAD OF THE STEERING RIDGE AXIS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE STORM AND
THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE
TO DECREASED OUTFLOW ALOFT AND AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
TC 16S HAS BEGUN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GAMEDE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20070226 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260752ZFEB2007//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HUMBA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 23.9S 78.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9S 78.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 26.0S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 24.4S 78.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HUMBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1050 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 16S CONTINUES TO TRACK
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AN-
CHORED WEST OF AUSTRALIA. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS IN PRO-
GRESS, WITH MULTISPECTRAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDI-
CATING WARM FRONTOGENESIS TO THE EAST OF THE STORM CENTER AND A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ELONGATION OF THE TROUGHING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FULLY EXTRA-
TROPICAL BY TAU 12 AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE
AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG STORM TRACK DROP. THEREFORE,
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 18 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S
(GAMEDE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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Document: humba.htm
Updated: 27th February 2007 |
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