Tropical
Cyclones
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Tropical Cyclone ISOBEL [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTXS21 PGTW 020130 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 020121Z JAN 07// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.0S 119.5E TO 18.5S 121.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 020000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 119.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.9S 119.8E, APPROXIMATELY 390 NM NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED AND MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A CONSOLIDATED REGION OF CONVECTION LOCATED OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). IN ADDITION, A 012130Z AMSU-B PASS, A 012146Z WINDSAT PASS, AND A 012348Z SSMIS PASS INDICATE INCREASED BANDING CONVECTION WRAP- PING INTO THE LLCC. A 012237Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES CURRENT WIND SPEEDS ARE ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 30 KTS NEAR LLCC. IN ADDITION IT SHOWS BETTER ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SYSTEM IS PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DIVERGENT REGION OF THE RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVEL- OPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 030130Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20070102 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020121Z JAN 07// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ISOBEL) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 15.2S 119.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 119.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 17.9S 119.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 21.5S 121.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 25.3S 123.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 020900Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 119.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (ISOBEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEGUN TO ORGANIZE IN THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH DEVELOPMENT BEING ENHANCED BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS PROVIDING THE STRONG SOUTHERLY STEERING CURRENT. THE PRESENT STORM MOTION WILL PERSIST WITH TC 07S MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN TAUS 12 AND 24 AND THEN DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER LAND BY TAU 36. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 020121Z JAN 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 020130) MAX- IMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z AND 030300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CLOVIS) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20070102 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ISOBEL) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021200Z --- NEAR 16.3S 119.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 119.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 19.0S 120.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 23.1S 121.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 021500Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 119.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (ISOBEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY BEING STEER- ED RAPIDLY POLEWARD ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA. AS THIS TROUGH DEEPENS, THE STORM'S POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL BE ENHANCED, ALLOWING FURTHER IN- TENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL JUST AFTER TAU 12. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 07S WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN, AND DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT BECOMES IMBEDDED IN THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE MIDLATITUDE PATTERN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CLOVIS) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20070103 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/260752JUN2004// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ISOBEL) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030000Z --- NEAR 18.0S 120.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 120.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 22.6S 121.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 36 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 28.9S 125.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 030300Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 120.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (ISOBEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY BEING STEER- ED POLEWARD ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA. AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO TRACK TO THE EAST, THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE PATTERN AND RAPIDLY ACCELERATE SOUTHEAST. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND NEAR TAU 06 WITH RAPID DISSIPATION OCCURRING THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CLOVIS) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20070103 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/030751JAN2007// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ISOBEL) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031200Z --- NEAR 22.4S 121.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 27 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 121.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 28.2S 126.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 031500Z POSITION NEAR 23.9S 122.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (ISOBEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST- WARD AT 27 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED WELL INLAND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CLOVIS) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Document: isobel.htm
Updated: 4th January 2007 |
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