[Index]
Tropical Cyclone JACOB
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone JACOB [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTXS32 PGTW 20070307 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/070151MAR2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 12.4S 107.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 107.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 11.9S 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 11.6S 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 11.3S 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 10.9S 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 107.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (JACOB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
SOUTH OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT DVORAK SATELLITE INTEN-
SITY ESTIMATES AND A 062316Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATE THAT THIS
SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH. TC 18S IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. THIS RIDGE EXTENSION
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO
AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OBSERVED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE STEERING RIDGE WEAKENS, STRONG
LOW TO MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL
EXERT A COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCE, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO SLOW IN THIS COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE. HOWEVER, A REORIENTATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL ALLOW
POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO IMPROVE. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR
SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z AND
080300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (GEORGE) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070307 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/070152MAR2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 12.5S 107.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 107.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 12.2S 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 11.9S 106.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 11.5S 105.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 11.1S 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 107.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (JACOB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM
SOUTH OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 18S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH-
WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THIS RIDGE EXTENSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH-
WEST OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE STEERING RIDGE WEAKENS, STRONG LOW
TO MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL EXERT
A COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCE. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW AND BEGIN
TO TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE MID-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW EXERTS MORE OF A STEERING INFLUENCE AND AS THE
SYSTEM INTERACTS WEAKLY WITH TC 17S. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THIS IS EXPECTED DECREASE ONLY
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH WILL INCREASE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND ALLOW TC 18S TO INTEN-
SIFY AT NEARLY A CLIMATALOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 36. AS THE
SYSTEM BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48, UPWELLING
WILL CAUSE A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OF INTENSIFICATION.
THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT AND THE MODEL FIELDS ARE
HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR THIS
SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z AND 080900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
17S (GEORGE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070307 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/071351MAR2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 13.0S 106.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 106.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 13.1S 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 13.1S 104.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 13.1S 104.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 13.3S 103.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 106.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (JACOB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
SOUTH OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 18S CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A GRADUAL SLOWING OF FORWARD
TRACK SPEED IN RESPONSE TO COMPETING WESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGING. THE TRACK FORECAST RE-
PRESENTS A DEPARTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A
STRONGER SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. THE SEPARATION BETWEEN TC 17S AND TC 18S TO THE SOUTH-
EAST IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE, SO DIRECT INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
TWO CYCLONES IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TC 17S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH MIDLATITUDE TROUGHING
TO THE SOUTH AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND
082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (GEORGE) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070308 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/080751MAR2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 12.8S 105.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 105.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 12.9S 105.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 13.0S 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 13.3S 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.8S 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 105.8E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 20 FEET.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (JACOB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM
SOUTH OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE COMPETING
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO ITS NORTH
ANCHORED OVER THE JAVA SEA, AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO ITS
SOUTH ANCHORED OVER SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. THIS STEERING PATTERN
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AS THE NER STRENGTHENS AND THE STR IS RE-
INFORCED FROM THE WEST AFTER A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH EXITS THE
AREA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED, DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 18S WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS VWS IS REDUCED BY A BUILDING
200 MB ANTICYCLONE ALOFT. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z AND 090900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (GEORGE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070308 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/081951MAR2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 13.4S 106.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 106.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.1S 107.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 14.8S 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.7S 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 16.9S 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 106.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (JACOB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 690 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED
AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS.
TC 18S IS DEPARTING A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND BEGINNING TO
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TC. TC 18S WILL INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE UNDER COMPETING INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE POLE-
WARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, WHICH ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
17S (GEORGE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070309 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/090151MAR2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 13.9S 107.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 107.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 14.8S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.0S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 17.3S 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.7S 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 108.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (JACOB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 615 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 090034Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW THE SYSTEM HAS
ACCELERATED SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFIED AT A LESS THAN CLIMATO-
LOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. TC 18S WILL TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED
NORTHEAST OF THE TC. TC 18S WILL INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATO-
LOGICAL RATE UNDER COMPETING INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, WHICH ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z AND 100300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 17S (GEORGE) WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW 090300) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070309 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/080751MAR2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 14.7S 108.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 108.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 15.7S 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 17.0S 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 18.5S 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.4S 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 23.3S 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 108.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (JACOB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) AN-
CHORED OVER INDONESIA CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE
ON TC 18S. AFTER TAU 24, THE NER WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE TIMOR
SEA, CAUSING AN INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WHICH WILL
OCCUR AFTER TAU 48. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS, AND WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS AN IMPROVING POLWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL HELPS THE SYSTEM OVERCOME THE EFFECTS OF MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (GEORGE) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW)//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070309 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/080751MAR2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 15.3S 109.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 109.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.5S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 17.9S 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 19.6S 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.4S 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 24.6S 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 109.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (JACOB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS, AS A 090847Z TRMM PASS INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) ANCHORED OVER INDONESIA CON-
TINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE ON TC 18S. AFTER TAU 24,
THE NER WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE TIMOR SEA, CAUSING AN INCREASE
IN TRACK SPEED PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WHICH WILL OCCUR JUST BEFORE TAU 48.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS AN IMPROVING POLE-
WARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HELPS THE SYSTEM OVERCOME THE EFFECTS OF MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS
22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (GEORGE) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070309 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 15.7S 109.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 109.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 16.8S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 18.0S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 19.4S 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.9S 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 23.2S 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 110.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (JACOB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 18S CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH-
EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
(NER) RIDGE ANCHORED OVER INDONESIA. THE NER IS FORECAST TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD OVER THE TIMOR SEA TO THE EAST OF TC 18S, ALLOWING THE
STORM TO CONTINUE ALONG A GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO INTENSIFY MORE
RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 12 DUE TO INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AROUND
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, INCREASING
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO THE
WEST OF THE STORM, AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070310 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 16.2S 110.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 110.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 17.5S 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.8S 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 20.1S 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.5S 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 24.1S 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 110.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (JACOB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST-
WARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 18S IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)
ANCHORED NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EX-
TEND SOUTHWARD OVER THE TIMOR SEA TO THE EAST OF TC 18S, ALLOWING
THE STORM TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 18S IS FORE-
CAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL AFTER TAU 36. HOWEVER, VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION TO A LESS THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE, PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070310 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 16.9S 111.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 111.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 18.3S 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 19.6S 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.7S 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 22.1S 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 24.6S 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 111.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (JACOB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 18S IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) ANCHORED NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 18S IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE NER UNTIL LANDFALL, WHICH WILL OCCUR JUST AFTER TAU 36.
THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS DUE TO A DECREASE
IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
TC 18S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12 AND THEN
INTENSIFY SLOWLY UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL, DUE TO INCREASED SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE. THE DYNAMIC AIDS REMAIN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070310 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 18.1S 112.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 112.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 19.5S 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 20.7S 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.8S 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 23.3S 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 112.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (JACOB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST-
WARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 18S CONTINUES TO
TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 18S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL
AFTER TAU 24. THE STORM HAS ACCELERATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS,
BUT IS FORECAST TO SLOW THROUGH TAU 24 AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM EXERTS A SLIGHT COMPETING STEERING
INFLUENCE. TC 18S HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO
THE CONTINUED SUPPRESSION OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND AN INCREASE
IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH
TAU 12 AND THEN INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT TRAVERSES INCREASED
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHORTLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. THE
DYNAMIC AIDS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070310 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 19.8S 113.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 113.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.9S 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 23.3S 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.4S 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 113.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (JACOB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTH-
EASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 18S CONTINUES TO
TRACK RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER INDONESIA. THIS GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SOME SLOWING IN
FORWARD TRACK SPEED AFTER LANDFALL AROUND TAU 12. THE SYSTEM HAS
REORGANIZED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, EXHIBITING A MORE
SYMMETRICAL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE INDICATIVE
OF SOME INTENSIFICATION, RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
TAU 12 AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER VERY WARM WATER OFFSHORE. THE
SYSTEM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER MAKING LANDFALL AND IS FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE A SLOWER FORWARD
TRACK SPEED AND A LARGER EASTWARD COMPONENT TO STORM TRACK THROUGH
TAU 12. THIS FORECAST IS WEIGHTED TOWARD PERSISTENCE IN THE TAU 00
TO TAU 12 PERIOD, DEPICTING A FASTER FORWARD TRACK SPEED AND A
MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK THAN THE NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z, AND 112100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070311 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 19.3S 114.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 114.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 20.5S 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.4S 117.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 22.2S 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 114.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (JACOB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 18S CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH-
EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER INDONESIA. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONT-
INUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY, INCLUDING A 11/0035Z SSMIS PASS, REVEALS THAT THE SYS-
TEM IS BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
ADDITIONALLY, MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A LACK
OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM.
HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLY WARM AND
THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN THIS ENVIRONMENT
OF COMPETING INFLUENCES. TC 18S WILL DISSIPATE STEADILY AFTER
LANDFALL BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z AND
120300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070311 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 19.4S 114.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 114.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.1S 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.0S 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 22.5S 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 114.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (JACOB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 18S HAS BEEN TRACKING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A 500 MB NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER INDONESIA. TC 18S HAS SLOWED AS
IT IS BEGINNING TO BE STEERED AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS SLOWER
FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL WHICH WILL
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12. TC 18S WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE 700 MB ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
THE SYSTEM. AN 11/0235Z AMSU-B IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
CONTINUING TO ENTRAIN DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THAT MUCH
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS ALSO
SHOWS THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED. THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS
HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 18S IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070311 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 19.6S 115.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 115.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.3S 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.3S 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 22.8S 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 115.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (JACOB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
175 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
TC 18S IS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A 700 MB ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.
THIS TRACK AND FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL
LANDFALL NEAR TAU 12. THE STORM CONTINUES TO DISPLAY FLARING
CONVECTION AND A LACK OF SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS OUTFLOW REMAINS WEAK AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS LIGHT TO MODERATE. TC 18S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND PRIOR TO TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z
AND 121500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070311 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 19.8S 116.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 116.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 20.6S 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.4S 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 117.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (JACOB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 18S CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH-
WEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER INDONESIA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THIS RIDGE, MAKING LANDFALL JUST PRIOR TO
TAU 12. RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WEAKENING AND
BROADENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING SLOWLY UNTIL LANDFALL. THEREAFTER, TC 18S WILL
STEADILY DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS
16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070312 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 20.8S 119.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 119.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 22.2S 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 120.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (JACOB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
310 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
TC 18S IS OVER LAND AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK RAPIDLY TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT
TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (INDLADA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
|
Document: jacob.htm
Updated: 12th March 2007 |
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