Tropical Cyclones [Index]

Tropical Cyclone NELSON [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]

WTPS31 PGTW 20070206 03:00z 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// 
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051952ZFEB2007//
AMPN/REF A,TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (NELSON) WARNING NR 001    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 139.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 139.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 16.1S 140.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 16.3S 141.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 16.5S 142.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 16.6S 143.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 139.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (NELSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM WEST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. TC 11P IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
LOCATED EAST OF THE TC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A DEEPENING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED UPSTREAM, WHICH WILL FURTHER ACT TO STEER
THE TC SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. TC 11P WILL INTENSIFY AT A LESS
THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO COMPETING INFLUENCES
OF FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 051952Z
FEB 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 052000 )
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z AND 070300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20070206 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
RMKS//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (NELSON) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061200Z --- NEAR 16.6S 140.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 140.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 16.7S 141.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 16.7S 142.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 16.8S 143.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 17.1S 144.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 140.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (NELSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM WEST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS THE OVERALL STRUC-
TURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 12P IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. TC 12P HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMA-
TOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS FORECAST TO REACH MAX-
IMUM INTENSITY BY TAU 12, JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. BEYOND TAU 12 THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DECREASING INTENSITY DUE TO LAND INTER-
ACTION. TC 12P REMAINS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE TC. WEAKENING OF THE NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE FROM A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENING UPSTREAM OF
THE TC WILL CAUSE A MORE EASTWARD TRACK BEYOND TAU 12. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070300Z AND 071500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20070207 03:00z 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (NELSON) WARNING NR 003       
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (NELSON) WARNING NR 003    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070000Z --- NEAR 16.9S 142.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 142.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 17.6S 144.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 142.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (NELSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM WEST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND MICROWAVE SAT-
ELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS
DISSIPATED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THAT THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS ASHORE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DISSIPATING OVER LAND TO BELOW TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, STRONG SURFACE TROUGHING, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE EVIDENT
AHEAD OF THE STORM CENTER TRACK OVER THE CORAL SEA, AND SOME REGENER-
ATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AFTER THE CIRCULATION CENTER CROSSES
THE QUEENSLAND COAST AND REEMERGES OVER WATER. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN).THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS
OF REGENERATION.//