[Index]
Tropical Cyclone YANI
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone YANI [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTPS21 PGTW 20061121 17:00Z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/222351ZJUN2004//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 170 NM RADIUS OF 12.8S 161.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 211430Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 162.0E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9S
161.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 162.0E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED
AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE PERSISTENT CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
OVER THE SOUTHERN SOLOMON ISLANDS. THIS LLCC HAS REMAINED NEARLY
QUASI-STATIONARY AND PRESSURE TRENDS FROM HONIARA INDICATED A 1 TO
2 MB DROP OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A 211224Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW UNDER THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. GIVEN THE 24
HOUR PRESSURE TRENDS AT HONIARA, FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT,
AND IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 221700Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20061122 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/211651ZNOV2006//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 11.9S 162.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 162.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 12.0S 162.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 12.3S 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 12.8S 162.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 13.6S 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 162.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02P (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205
NM SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A
212101Z SSMI IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED
TO CONSOLIDATE RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 06-12 HOURS WITH
DEEP CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDING. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS BANDING. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICT VERY GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES ENHANCED
BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE CORAL SEA. TC 02P IS
LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND HAS BEEN
GENERALLY QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS THE
SYSTEM STRENGTHENS IT IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE, WHICH WILL
STRENGTHEN EAST OF THE SYSTEM. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 211651Z NOV 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 211700). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z AND
230300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20061122 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (YANI) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 12.6S 162.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 162.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 13.1S 162.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 13.6S 162.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 14.2S 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 15.0S 162.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 162.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02P (YANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245
NM SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS SOUTHERLY
MOTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM SLOWLY BUILDS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED TC 02P IS IN THE
AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS DEPICTS
VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE CORAL
SEA. THIS ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT CONCERN THE FORECAST TRACK
OF 02P, RANGING FROM DUE WESTWARD RUNNERS TO RAPID TRACKS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC SETUPS FAVORS A CLIMATOLOGICAL
SOUTHERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS PLACED ON THE
ATYPICAL WESTWARD TRACKS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
221200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z AND 231500Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20061123 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (YANI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 12.7S 162.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 162.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 13.1S 162.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 13.6S 162.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.3S 162.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.0S 162.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 162.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02P (YANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS REMAINED QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN
A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL RIDGES ANCHORED
TO THE WEST AND TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE RIDGE TO THE
EAST IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM
WHILE AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
AUSTRALIA WEAKENS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THIS PROCESS SHOULD
ALLOW THE EASTERN RIDGE TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE OVER TIME AND STEER THE SYSTEM IN A GENERALLY SOUTH-
WARD DIRECTION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON THIS REASONING
AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS
ON THE MODELS DEPICTING ATYPICAL WESTWARD TRACKS. THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VERY
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY
THAN FORECAST IF THE APPROACHING TROUGH SPURS DEVELOPMENT A MORE
VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. AN
ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LATER IN THE FORE-
CAST PERIOD SHOULD ACT TO SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO A LESS THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z AND 240300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20061123 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (YANI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 13.6S 162.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 162.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 14.4S 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 15.2S 162.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 16.2S 162.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.4S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 162.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02P (YANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 02P HAS BEGUN TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGING TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN THE RIDGING ON THE WESTERN PERI-
PHERY OF TC 02P, BUT WILL QUICKLY FILL AND MOVE EASTWARD KEEPING THE
SYSTEM FROM SPEEDING UP RAPIDLY. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON THIS
REASONING AND THE CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. AS TC 02P
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD IT WILL KEEP TRACKING INTO A HIGHER VER-
TICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. INTENSIFICATION WILL REMAIN AT A LESS
THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DUE TO THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM
COULD INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY THAN FORECAST IF THE APPROACHING TROUGH
CAUSES INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
231200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND 241500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20061124 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (YANI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 14.2S 163.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 163.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.9S 163.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.8S 163.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.7S 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.8S 162.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 163.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02P (YANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL A DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS DUE TO THE
COMBINED INFLUENCE OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MID TO
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WARMING AFTER SUNRISE. THE STORM IS TRACKING
GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ANCHORED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE STORM
TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE COMPETING
INFLUENCES OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
AFTER TAU 24, THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND FOLLOW THE LOW
TO MID LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
241500Z AND 250300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20061124 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (YANI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 13.6S 161.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 161.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 13.6S 160.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 13.8S 159.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 14.1S 158.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 161.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02P (YANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATEL-
LITE IMAGERY AND A 240906Z SSMI MICROWAVE PASS REVEAL THAT THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME SHEARED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAS INDICATED THAT THE LLCC HAS BEGUN TO
TRACK WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW. BASED ON
THIS SHEARING OF TC 02P, THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO
TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE GREATER INFLUENCE BY SHEAR OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TC 02P WITH
DISSIPATION EXPECTED AROUND TAU 36. THIS FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY
ON PERSISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A CONTINUED TRACK SOUTHWARD. IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE
STEERING THE SYSTEM AT A HIGHER LEVEL BASED ON GREATER VERTICAL EX-
TENT OF TC 02P THAN IS OBSERVED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z AND 251500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20061125 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (YANI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 12.9S 161.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 161.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 12.4S 160.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 161.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02P (YANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 02P NOW HAS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). CONVECTION IS SHEARED OVER 130 NM FROM THE
LLCC, WHICH IS TRACKING SLOWLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL
SOUTH-EASTERLY FLOW DIVERGING OUT OF AN ANTICYCLONE NORTHWEST OF NEW
ZEALAND. DUE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE REGION, CONSOLIDATION OF CON-
VECTION OVER THE LLCC IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THISSYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 11 FEET.//
|
Document: yani.htm
Updated: 26th November 2006 |
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