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Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary July 2007
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]


                                 JULY, 2007

  (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
  information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
  the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)

  SPECIAL NOTE:  With the February issue I began constructing the tropical
  cyclone reports in a different format with the initial section presenting
  various salient characteristics of the cyclones in a very structured,
  template-like format.   After a few months I began to realize that it
  was requiring considerable extra time to draft this initial section, so
  I polled about two dozen or so persons, soliciting their opinions
  regarding the new "pro-forma" style of summaries.  Of the persons who
  responded, only one seemed to favor the new style, and his was a rather
  weak opinion.  The others really didn't care for it, and furthermore, I
  discovered that my assistant writers, Kevin Boyle and Simon Clarke, felt
  that it made writing the narrative history of the cyclones more difficult
  in that they had to frequently double check to insure that they were not
  duplicating information already presented.   Therefore, effective with
  the July summary, I am abandoning the structured, "pro-forma" style of
  report and returning to the way we've always done things.


                              JULY HIGHLIGHTS

   --> Two typhoons strike Japan
   --> Unusual out-of-season South Indian Ocean tropical cyclone forms
   --> First Eastern North Pacific hurricane of season forms
   --> Former Atlantic tropical storm brings heavy rains to Newfoundland


                           CYCLONE TRACK GRAPHICS

     John Diebolt of Tucson, Arizona, produces track graphics of all the 
  tropical and subtropical systems for which I prepare a tabular track in 
  the companion cyclone tracks file.     These can be accessed at the 
  following URL:>

  Scroll down the chart to the month of interest and click on the green
  bar under "Operational Track Image" for the desired system.

  The tabular track of positions and intensities may also be obtained
  from the above website, or from the other archival sites listed in
  the Author's Note in the closing section of this summary.

  NOTE!!! Due to extenuating personal circumstances, John has not yet been
  able to get the July cyclone track graphics prepared.  Hopefully, they
  will appear on the website in the near future.  Interested persons should
  check the above link periodically.



     Short reports with satellite pictures and small-scale maps for all 
  tropical cyclones may be found at the following links:>>>>>

  For some storms more detailed reports have been prepared.  In those cases
  I will include the specific links in the reports for the applicable
  tropical cyclones.


                 !!!!!!!!!!!!  EXTRA FEATURE  !!!!!!!!!!!!

                       PART 1 - THE FABULOUS FIFTIES

  A. Introduction

     About eight years ago a query was posted to a discussion list 
  by a person interested in obtaining the complete sets of Atlantic 
  hurricane names for years prior to the establishment of the current 
  list of six rotating sets in 1979.   The naming of tropical cyclones
  has always been a keen side interest of mine, and many years earlier I
  had collected from various sources the complete alphabetical lists
  of Atlantic hurricane names dating all the way back to 1950--the first
  year that Atlantic tropical cyclones were systematically named from an
  alphabetical set of names.  

     In response to the above-mentioned query, I typed all the sets of
  names as I had them, along with an explanatory document, and sent them
  to that particular person.     And over the years I've sent the 
  information to others who have expressed an interest in the old names.

     So I've decided to prepare a series of monthly features detailing
  the history of the naming of Atlantic tropical cyclones, plus one
  feature describing the history of the naming of Eastern and Central 
  North Pacific cyclones.  This month's feature will cover the period

     Prior to 1950 Atlantic hurricanes were occasionally called by
  names, the most common practice being that followed in the Antilles
  of calling storms after various saints in the Roman Catholic Church
  on whose day a particular hurricane may have struck a given island,
  (e.g., San Ciriaco, 1899; San Felipe, 1928; San Nicolas, 1931).  But
  the first year in which hurricane forecasters systematically named
  tropical cyclones from a pre-determined alphabetical list was in
  1950.   During that season the old World War II phonetic alphabet
  was utilized for naming tropical storms and hurricanes, and also for
  the two years following.     By 1952 another phonetic alphabet 
  had come into use--the original version of today's International
  Phonetic Alphabet--and some confusion resulted when some parties
  wanted to use the newer phonetic alphabet.   So in 1953 forecasters
  chose to try the practice which had been in use by typhoon fore-
  casters in the Western Pacific since the closing days of World
  War II of naming tropical cyclones with women's names.   A set of
  23 names, beginning with ALICE and ending with WALLIS, was drafted
  for that year.

     The tropical storm season of 1953 was active but mild--there were
  no destructive hurricanes--and public reception to the idea seemed
  rather favorable.  So the same list was adopted for the 1954 season
  with one change--the name GAIL was replaced with GILDA, most likely
  because of confusion resulting from the term 'gale' being so widely
  used in both tropical and extratropical storm warnings.   In his
  book "Hurricane Hunters", Ivan R. Tannehill relates that after the
  destructive East Coast hurricanes of 1954, there was some public
  criticism of the practice of using women's names as monikers for such
  destructive storms, but after awhile the criticism died down and
  forecasters continued using women's names in succeeding seasons.

     With storms like CAROL, EDNA and HAZEL getting so much publicity,
  forecasters had agreed to draft a new set of names for 1955.   But
  before the new list had been selected, an out-of-season hurricane
  appeared in the Leeward Islands on January 2, 1955, so the name ALICE
  was assigned to this hurricane.   Before the regular season of 1955
  began, forecasters drafted a new alphabetical set, beginning with
  BRENDA and continuing all the way through the alphabet, ending with
  ZELDA.   For each season through 1959 a new set of names was selected.
  The only names actually assigned to tropical cyclones that were
  repeated prior to 1960 were EDITH and FLORA from 1955, which were 
  used again in 1959.   Beginning in 1955 a restriction was put into 
  effect which required that hurricane names have exactly two syllables 
  and no more than six letters.    This restriction considerably reduced
  the number of names available, especially with letters for which there
  was already a scarcity of names--the letter 'X' in particular.  The 
  sets for 1957, 1958 and 1959 featured such unusual names as XMAY, XRAE 
  and XCEL.

  B. Sources of Information

     The information contained above and the lists of names themselves
  came from several sources.   The World War II phonetic alphabet and
  the 1953/1954 set I copied down many years ago from Ivan R. Tannehill's
  book "Hurricane Hunters".  Tannehill was also the source for some of
  the comments about early public reaction to the idea of naming storms
  with women's names.      The names for 1955 through 1958 I found in
  various magazines in libraries.   Since I wanted the names only for my
  own personal interest, I didn't bother to annotate in what publication
  I'd found the names.     The set for 1959 I obtained from an issue of
  "Weatherwise" which I ordered many years later while copies were still
  in print.

  C. The Sets of Names

                      ATLANTIC HURRICANE NAME SETS
                              1950 - 1959

   (An asterisk follows names that were actually assigned to storms.
   A number in parentheses following a name refers to a note following
   the lists.)

   1950           1951           1952           1953           1954
   ----           ----           ----           ----           ----
   Able *         Able *         Able *         Alice *        Alice *
   Baker *        Baker *        Baker *        Barbara *      Barbara *
   Charlie *      Charlie *      Charlie *      Carol *        Carol *
   Dog *          Dog *          Dog *          Dolly *        Dolly *
   Easy *         Easy *         Easy *         Edna *         Edna *
   Fox *          Fox *          Fox *          Florence *     Florence *
   George *       George *       George         Gail *         Gilda *
   How *          How *          How            Hazel *        Hazel *
   Item *         Item *         Item           Irene          Irene
   Jig *          Jig *          Jig            Jill           Jill
   King *         King           King           Katherine      Katherine
   Love *         Love           Love           Lucy           Lucy
   Mike * (1)     Mike           Mike           Mabel          Mabel
   Nan            Nan            Nan            Norma          Norma
   Oboe           Oboe           Oboe           Orpha          Orpha
   Peter          Peter          Peter          Patsy          Patsy
   Queen          Queen          Queen          Queen          Queen
   Roger          Roger          Roger          Rachel         Rachel
   Sugar          Sugar          Sugar          Susie          Susie
   Tare           Tare           Tare           Tina           Tina
   Uncle          Uncle          Uncle          Una            Una
   Victor         Victor         Victor         Vicky          Vicky
   William        William        William        Wallis         Wallis
   Xray           Xray           Xray
   Yoke           Yoke           Yoke
   Zebra          Zebra          Zebra

   1955           1956           1957           1958           1959
   ----           ----           ----           ----           ----
   Alice * (2)    Anna *         Audrey *       Alma *         Arlene *
   Brenda *       Betsy *        Bertha *       Becky *        Beulah *
   Connie *       Carla *        Carrie *       Cleo *         Cindy *
   Diane *        Dora *         Debbie *       Daisy *        Debra *
   Edith *        Ethel *        Esther *       Ella *         Edith *
   Flora *        Flossy *       Frieda *       Fifi *         Flora *
   Gladys *       Greta *        Gracie         Gerda *        Gracie *
   Hilda *        Hattie         Hannah         Helene *       Hannah *
   Ione *         Inez           Inga           Ilsa *         Irene *
   Janet *        Judith         Jessie         Janice *       Judith *
   Katie *        Kitty          Kathie         Katy           Kristy
   Linda          Laura          Lisa           Lila           Lois
   Martha         Molly          Margo          Milly          Marsha
   Nelly          Nona           Netty          Nola           Nellie
   Orva           Odette         Odelle         Orchid         Orpha
   Peggy          Paula          Parry          Portia         Penny
   Queena         Quenby         Quinta         Queeny         Quella
   Rosa           Rhoda          Roxie          Rena           Rachel
   Stella         Sadie          Sandra         Sherry         Sophie
   Trudy          Terese         Theo           Thora          Tanya
   Ursa           Ursel          Undine         Udele          Udele
   Verna          Vesta          Venus          Virgy          Vicky
   Wilma          Winny          Wenda          Wilna          Wilma
   Xenia          Xina           Xmay           Xrae           Xcel
   Yvonne         Yola           Yasmin         Yurith         Yasmin
   Zelda          Zenda          Zita           Zorna          Zasu


   (1) Air Force reports refer to a system in late October named Tropical
       Storm Mike.  However, this system does not appear in the current
       HURDAT database, and the reason for its omission is not clearly

   (2) Hurricane Alice of 1955, named in early January, is now considered 
       a 1954 storm since it developed from a disturbance which has since
       been traced back to late December, 1954.

                            ACTIVITY BY BASINS

  ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico

  Activity for July:  1 tropical storm

                          Sources of Information

     Most of the information presented below was obtained from the
  various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction
  Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida:
  discussions, public advisories, forecast/advisories, tropical weather
  outlooks, special tropical disturbance statements, etc.    Some
  additional information may have been gleaned from the monthly
  summaries prepared by the hurricane specialists and available on
  TPC/NHC's website.     All references to sustained winds imply a
  1-minute averaging period unless otherwise noted.

                    Atlantic Tropical Activity for July

     Over the period 1950-2006, the month of July has averaged 0.9 NS per
  year with 0.4 reaching hurricane intensity.    Only three intense
  hurricanes formed in the month during this period:  Bertha of 1996, and
  Dennis and Emily of 2005.   During July, 2007, one tropical storm formed
  on the final day of the month and did not reach hurricane intensity.
  Tropical Storm Chantal was christened on the morning of the 31st south
  of the Canadian Maritimes and became extratropical 24 hours later as it
  sped toward southeastern Newfoundland.   The post-tropical stage of
  Chantal brought very heavy rains and gusty winds to the island.  A report
  on Tropical Storm Chantal follows.

     During the first week of the month a tropical wave moved westward
  across the Atlantic with an associated low-pressure area, and convective
  activity increased on 3 July, leading to some prognostications that a
  tropical depression might form within a couple of days.   Tropical
  cyclogenesis in the east-central tropical Atlantic is very rare in early
  July, but it was in that region at the same time of year that the above-
  mentioned Hurricane Bertha formed in 1996.    The current disturbance,
  however, began to look less organized on the 5th as environmental
  conditions became less favorable and the system was dropped from NHC's
  Tropical Weather Outlooks after 7 July.

                          TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL
                            30 July - 4 August

  A. Storm History

     Tropical Storm Chantal ended an almost two-month hiatus in tropical
  cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin when it formed late on 30 July
  south of the Canadian Maritimes.  Chantal, however, was destined to be
  a short-lived system as it moved rather quickly toward Newfoundland.
  Chantal's origin lay with an area of low pressure which had formed
  north of the Bahamas on 28 July and with organization gradually
  increasing as it tracked north-northeastward past Bermuda.

     The initial TPC/NHC advisory, issued at 0300 UTC on 31 July, placed
  the center of Tropical Depression 03 about 235 nm north-northwest of
  Bermuda.  Satellite imagery during the morning of the 31st revealed
  that the system had strengthened, and a QuikScat pass just before
  1000 UTC indicated winds in the 40-45 kt range.  Hence, the depression
  was upgraded to Tropical Storm Chantal in a special update issued at
  31/1215 UTC.  The newly-christened tropical storm was located about
  285 nm south of Halifax, Nova Scotia, and moving quickly northeastward
  at 20 kts.  The initial intensity was set to 35 kts.   Chantal reached
  its peak intensity of 45 kts at 1500 UTC on 31 July while located
  about 575 nm southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland.  The cyclone's
  forward motion by this time had increased to 25 kts.

     As the day wore on Chantal's track carried it over increasingly colder
  SSTs and the storm began to rapidly transform into an extratropical
  cyclone.  The final advisory from TPC/NHC, issued at 0300 UTC on
  1 August, placed the center of Chantal about 295 nm southwest of Cape
  Race and moving northeastward at 28 kts.  After extratropical transition,
  the post-tropical storm continued to increase in intensity as it raced
  northeastward.  The center of the former Chantal crossed over Newfound-
  land's Avalon Peninsula during the morning of 1 August, thence continuing
  northeastward into the North Atlantic.  Based on OPC's warnings, the
  extratropical storm reached an intensity of 60 kts/965 mb at 03/0000
  UTC near 59N/32W.  Thereafter, the system began to weaken but was still
  a 974-mb LOW to the south of Iceland near 60N/19W at 0600 UTC on the
  4th of August.

     A very detailed narrative history of Tropical Storm Chantal may be
  found at the following link:>

  B. Storm Effects in Canada

     Dr. Chris Fogarty, a forecaster at the Canadian Hurricane Centre in
  Halifax, Nova Scotia, has kindly sent me some information about the
  effects of Chantal in Canada which forms the basis for this section.
  (A special thanks to Chris for sending the information.)

  1. Track

     Following is a track for the latter tropical and post-tropical stages
  prepared by Chris.  I'm including it here for the benefit of interested
  persons, but I am not going to re-work the track for Chantal which has
  already been sent out in the companion cyclone tracks file which was
  based upon TPC/NHC and OPC warnings.

  Month  Day  Hour   Lat    Lon     MSW      CP
   Jul   31    03Z  36.1N  66.0W   30 kts   1007 mb
   Jul   31    09Z  37.8N  64.9W   40 kts   1000 mb
   Jul   31    15Z  40.2N  62.7W   45 kts    999 mb
   Jul   31    21Z  41.7N  61.2W   45 kts    999 mb
   Aug   01    03Z  43.6N  58.5W   45 kts    994 mb
   Aug   01    09Z  45.3N  55.5W   45 kts    993 mb  Extratropical
   Aug   01    15Z  47.2N  52.9W   45 kts    990 mb
   Aug   01    21Z  49.8N  48.0W   45 kts    987 mb
   Aug   02    03Z  52.0N  43.0W   50 kts    984 mb
   Aug   02    09Z  56.0N  39.0W   50 kts    978 mb

  2. Impacts in Newfoundland

     After losing its tropical characteristics by 0600 UTC on 1 August,
  the center of Post-tropical Chantal moved quickly toward Newfoundland's
  Avalon Peninsula with the center arriving during the mid-morning that
  day.  Conditions were wet and windy along the shores of Avalon with most
  of the heavy rain falling between midnight and midday over the Avalon
  and Burin Peninsulas.  Western portions of the Avalon Peninsula received
  the heaviest falls (from 100 to 200 mm).  The highest reported one-hour
  falls were 43 mm at St. John's West and 49 mm at Mt. Pearl between
  6:30 and 7:30 am on 01 August when the center of the storm was about
  five hours away from crossing the Peninsula.  Winds were not particularly
  strong with Chantal, and were confined to the southern Avalon Peninsula,
  with coastal gusts near 43 kts.  An official peak gust of 37 kts was
  recorded at Cape Race, and an unofficial gust of 48 kts was reported
  at Cape Pine on the southern Avalon Peninsula.

     The very heavy rains caused rivers and streams to swell quickly,
  washing out several roads and bridges and isolating some communities from
  the primary road network.  Such instances were common over the western
  part of the Avalon where the heaviest rainfall occurred.  States of
  emergency were declared for some towns including Placentia and South
  River.  There were many instances of water inundating low-lying areas,
  particularly in St. John's.  Storm drains were overwhelmed, and water
  was forced through drain covers on some streets.  The flooding was
  severe enough to cause some structural damage to buildings.

     For the Burin and Avalon Peninsulas, the normal July and August total
  rainfall is about 200 mm.  This essentially means that much of the
  affected region received one to two months worth of summer rainfall in
  the span of about 12 hours.  Argentia reported 116 mm of rain in the
  24 hours ending at 3:30 am (local time) 02 August.  This is a record
  one-day total for August based on the town's broken period of weather
  data dating back to 1945.  The old record was 62 mm on 19 August 1982.
  In the southwestern Avalon community of Branch, 98 mm of rain fell,
  breaking the previous one-day August total of 64 mm on 14 August 1990,
  based on a period of record dating back to 1984.

  3. Additional Rainfall Data

  Some storm-total amounts:

  Station                     Rainfall
  Argentia                    200.4 mm
  Whitbourne                  189.3 mm
  Salmonier Nature Park       115   mm
  North Harbour               111   mm
  Branch                       97.6 mm
  St. John's Airport           96.6 mm
  St. John's West              93.2 mm
  Brownsdale                   65.8 mm
  St. Lawrence                 55.2 mm
  Garnish                      39.6 mm
  Cape Race                    28.3 mm
  Bonavista                    28.0 mm

  For comparison the monthly average August rainfall for St. John's is
  108.1 mm.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett with significant contributions by
  Chris Fogarty)


  NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180

  Activity for July:  3 tropical depressions **
                      1 tropical storm
                      1 hurricane

  ** - one of these became a named storm early in August

                          Sources of Information

     Most of the information presented below was obtained from the
  various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction
  Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida (or the
  Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, Hawaii, for
  locations west of longitude 140W):  discussions, public advisories,
  forecast/advisories, tropical weather outlooks, special tropical
  disturbance statements, etc.  Some additional information may have
  been gleaned from the monthly summaries prepared by the hurricane
  specialists and available on TPC/NHC's website.  All references to
  sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise

                Northeast Pacific Tropical Activity for July

     Tropical activity for the month of July in the Northeast Pacific basin
  was somewhat below normal during 2007.  Over the period 1971-2006, the
  month of July has produced an annual average of 3.7 NS, 1.9 H, and 1.1
  IH.  During July, 2007, there were two NS with one reaching hurricane
  intensity, and no intense hurricanes.   Tropical Storm Cosme formed far
  to the southwest of Baja California on 15 July and briefly reached
  minimal hurricane intensity the next day before beginning to weaken.
  The residual depression moved westward and entered CPHC's area of warning
  responsibility, moving south of Hawaii before finally dissipating near
  Johnston Island.   Tropical Storm Dalila formed far to the south of the
  Gulf of California on the 23rd and pursued a general northwesterly
  trajectory roughly parallel to the Mexican coastline.  The cyclone peaked
  at 50 kts on the 24th before encountering colder SSTs and weakening.
  Short reports follow on both Cosme and Dalila.

     Three other tropical depressions formed during the month.  Tropical
  Depression 04E was spawned by a tropical wave that emerged from the
  coast of Africa on 23 June and reached the Pacific on 3 July.  The
  associated convection increased on 6 July and began to show signs of
  organization the next day.  A depression formed late on 9 July about
  615 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  A combination
  of southwesterly vertical shear and decreasing SSTs along the track
  prevented additional strengthening as the system tracked northwestward.
  TD-04E turned westward late on 10 July and weakened to a non-convective
  remnant LOW early the next day about 765 nm west-southwest of the tip
  of Baja California.

     Tropical Depression 05E developed from a tropical wave that moved
  off the west coast of Africa on 21 June and entered the Eastern North
  Pacific on 10 July.  Disorganized convection associated with the wave
  increased on 11 July.  The wave moved westward and gradually became
  better organized over the next couple of days, and a depression formed
  at 1200 UTC 14 July about 200 nm south-southwest of the southern tip 
  of Baja California.    Under the influence of vertical shear, the 
  depression was unable to strengthen further.  The system continued 
  west-northwestward on 15 July, and cooler waters and a more stable 
  airmass resulted in its degenerating into a remnant LOW by 0000 UTC 
  on 16 July.

  (NOTE: The information in the above two paragraphs was pretty much
  taken verbatim from the TPC/NHC monthly summary for July.  It seems
  rather unusual that a tropical wave which departed the coast of Africa
  on 23 June reached the Eastern Pacific on 3 July, whereas one which
  exited Africa two days earlier did not enter the Pacific until 10 July.
  I also checked the official reports on the two depressions which have
  already been made available online on NHC's website, and the same dates
  are given.  I wrote the author of one of the reports inquiring about
  the matter but have not yet received a reply.  If I should receive an
  answer, I will include it in next month's summary.)

     Tropical Depression 08E formed on 31 July far to the southwest of
  Baja California.  The system gradually intensified and became Tropical
  Storm Erick on 1 August.  The report on Erick will be contained in the
  August summary.

  NOTE: The official TPC/NHC storm reports are already available online
  for all the July systems.   Links to the individual reports may be
  found at the following URL:>

                              HURRICANE COSME
                                14 - 23 July

     The Northeastern Pacific basin's first hurricane of 2007 originated
  from a tropical wave which was tracked with difficulty across the
  Atlantic and Caribbean Sea due to a lack of associated convection.  The
  wave entered the Eastern North Pacific around 8 July and began to show
  signs of organization on the 10th.  The system continued westward and
  had organized into Tropical Depression 06E by 14 July when located about
  1175 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja
  California Peninsula.   TD-06E was a very large circulation which
  initially moved slowly northwestward in response to a weakness in the
  ridge to the north.   The system gradually strengthened and was upgraded
  to Tropical Storm Cosme at 1800 UTC on 15 July while located roughly
  1200 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas.   The atmospheric environment was
  conducive for further strengthening, and with a warm ocean, Cosme
  reached hurricane intensity at 16/1800 UTC while centered approximately
  1300 nm west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, or about 1400 nm east of Hilo,

     By early on the 17th Cosme had turned to a westerly track in response
  to a strengthening ridge to the north.  However, the storm had also
  entered into an environment of moderate easterly shear with SSTs having
  dropped to around 25 C.  Consequently, Cosme weakened rapidly with the
  MSW dropping from 65 kts to 35 kts in only 18 hours.  The cyclone
  continued to weaken as it moved westward and was downgraded to a tropical
  depression at 18/1800 UTC just prior to crossing 140W into the Central
  North Pacific region at a point approximately 875 nm east-southeast of
  Hilo.   The former minimal hurricane was only a swirl of low clouds
  that was completely devoid of deep convection as it entered the CPHC
  area of warning responsibility.  The depression continued moving toward
  the west-northwest at around 13-17 kts during the next few days within
  a hostile environment which did not allow it to regain tropical storm
  intensity.  Cosme passed well to the south of the Big Island on the
  21st.  Intermittent flare-ups of deep convection permitted the system
  to maintain winds of about 30 kts for several days as it continued
  westward across the Central North Pacific.  Buoy 51002 reported seas
  of 18 feet and an 8.5-min avg wind of 28 kts, gusting to 35 kts, on
  21 July as the center of Cosme passed 56 nm to the south.  By the 22nd
  the depression finally succumbed to two days of very strong vertical
  shear, and CPHC issued the final advisory at 23/0300 UTC, locating the
  dissipating center just to the southeast of Johnston Island.

     Even though Tropical Depression Cosme passed about 200 nm south of
  Hilo, it transported a large area of moisture far to the north.  The
  interaction of this moisture brought much needed rain to parts of the
  Big Island.  Rainfall totals for the 48-hour period starting on the
  morning of 20 July ranged from 75 to 180 mm in the Hilo and Puna
  Districts, while totals from 25 to 75 mm were measured in the Kau
  District.  Gusty easterly winds also caused some tree limbs and small
  trees to fall, resulting in temporary power outages to some areas of
  the eastern Big Island.  However, no significant damage or injuries
  were reported.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

                          TROPICAL STORM DALILA
                               22 - 27 July

     Tropical Storm Dalila developed from a tropical wave which entered
  the Eastern North Pacific basin on 17 July.  The wave spawned a broad
  low-pressure area south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec on 19 July, which
  subsequently moved slowly westward.  Associated convective activity
  increased on 21 July, and by early on 22 July the system had acquired
  enough organization to be classified as a tropical depression.  At
  0000 UTC on 22 July TD-07E was located about 400 nm south of Manzanillo,
  Mexico, with an initial intensity of 25 kts.  Northeasterly shear
  initially inhibited significant strengthening; however, by 0600 UTC
  on 23 July the system had reached tropical storm intensity about 600 nm
  south-southwest of Mazatlan and was named Dalila.   A ridge over
  northern Mexico steered Dalila northwestward during the next few days
  while it slowly strengthened.

     Tropical Storm Dalila reached a peak intensity of 50 kts at 1800 UTC
  on 24 July while centered about 50 nm southeast of Socorro Island, or
  approximately 350 nm south of Cabo San Lucas.  After passing very near
  Socorro, Dalila encountered cooler waters and began to weaken.  On the
  26th, while located about 210 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja
  California, the cyclone turned west-northwestward and weakened to a
  tropical depression the next day.  By later on the 27th Dalila had
  degenerated into a remnant LOW and NHC issued the final advisory on
  the system at 27/1500 UTC, locating the center about 450 nm west of
  Cabo San Lucas.  The remnant LOW subsequently moved west-northwestward
  during the next few days and dissipated on 30 July.

     No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Tropical
  Storm Dalila.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)


  NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180

  Activity for July:  3 tropical depressions **
                      1 tropical storm
                      2 typhoons ++

  ** - classified as tropical depressions by JMA only

  ++ - one of these classified as a super typhoon by JTWC, but there are
       some indications that this may have been an overestimate

                           Sources of Information

     Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
  cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
  by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
  Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.   In the companion
  tropical cyclone tracks file, I normally annotate track coordinates
  from some of the various Asian warning centers when their center
  positions differ from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more.   All
  references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period
  unless otherwise noted.

     Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the
  Typhoon 2000 website, normally sends me cyclone tracks based upon
  warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the
  Philippines' Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services
  Administration (PAGASA).  A very special thanks to Michael for the
  assistance he so reliably provides.
      In the title line for each storm I have referenced all the cyclone
  names/numbers I have available:   JTWC's depression number, the 
  JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator,
  and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their
  area of warning responsibility.

                Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for July

     Three named tropical cyclones sprang to life in the Northwest Pacific
  basin during July after a completely quiet June.  Short-lived Tropical
  Storm Toraji formed near Hainan Island and within about 24 hours had
  crossed the Gulf of Tonkin and moved into Vietnam.   Typhoon Man-yi
  (known in the Philippines as Bebeng) formed early in the second week
  of July very deep in the tropics to the south of Guam.  Initially
  moving west-northwestward, Man-yi passed roughly 175 nm north of Yap
  early on 10 July as it was nearing typhoon intensity.  The storm later
  passed over Okinawa on 13 July near its peak intensity.  (Man-yi was
  twice upgraded to super typhoon status by JTWC, but there is some doubt
  as to whether the cyclone ever reached 130 kts.)  The storm later struck
  the extreme southern portions of the Japanese islands of Kyushu and
  Shikoku and brushed southern Honshu as it was weakening.  Near the end
  of the month Typhoon Usagi formed east of the northern Mariana Islands
  and passed through the island chain as it was reaching typhoon intensity.
  Usagi recurved toward southwestern Japan, becoming a respectable 120-kt
  typhoon (per JTWC's analysis).  After weakening some, the cyclone crossed
  over eastern Kyushu and extreme western Honshu before becoming extra-
  tropical in the Sea of Japan.   Reports, authored by Kevin Boyle, follow
  on the three named cyclones.

     Three other systems were designated tropical depressions by JMA only.
  One was in progress at the beginning of the month, and a discussion of
  this system may be found in the introduction to the Northwest Pacific
  basin in the June summary.    On 25 July the remnants of ex-Tropical
  Depression Cosme from the Central North Pacific crossed the Dateline,
  and the JMA High Seas Bulletin at 25/0000 UTC referenced the LOW as a
  weak tropical depression near 16N/180E.  However, in the next bulletin
  the system was listed as only a low-pressure area.   The JMA High Seas
  bulletin for 0000 UTC 27 July mentioned a weak tropical depression near
  25N/135E, moving north at 10 kts.  This was the only reference to this
  system, and the latitude suggests it was probably more subtropical in 
  nature than purely tropical.  No reference to this system was made in 
  any STWO from JTWC.

                          TROPICAL STORM TORAJI
                            (TC-03W / TS 0703)
                                3 - 6 July

  Toraji: contributed by DPR (North) Korea, is the name of a beautiful 
          flower which blooms unnoticed, usually found deep in the 
          mountains of Korea, and which is useful as food and medicine

  A. Synoptic History

     Tropical Storm Toraji began as a persistent area of convection
  located approximately 135 nm southeast of Hainan, and was initially
  mentioned in JTWC's STWO at 0100 UTC 3 July.  Animated multi-spectral 
  satellite imagery showed scattered deep convection south of a partially
  exposed LLCC.  Upper-level shear was assessed as weak to moderate with
  fair equatorward outflow.  Despite its close proximity to land, the 
  disturbance gradually consolidated, and following a 24-hour pressure 
  fall of over 5 hPa over Hainan, JTWC issued a TCFA at 04/0130 UTC.  At 
  this time, the disturbance was located approximately 65 nm east-southeast
  of Hainan.  (JMA had first classified the system as a tropical depression
  near 15N/112W at 0000 UTC 3 July.)

     The first warning at 04/0600 UTC upgraded the disturbance to a 35-kt
  tropical storm and positioned the centre approximately 50 nm southeast 
  of Hainan.  Upon making landfall in Hainan Dao, Tropical Storm 03W was 
  downgraded to a tropical depression at 04/1200 UTC, and then re-instated
  as a 35-kt tropical storm six hours later as it was emerging back over 
  water.  JMA upgraded the depression to tropical storm status and
  assigned the name Toraji at 05/0000 UTC, also estimating the MSW at
  35 kts (10-min avg).  Tropical Storm Toraji maintained this intensity 
  as it tracked northwestward and north-northwestward along the western 
  boundary of a subtropical ridge.  The system crossed the Gulf of Tonkin 
  and made landfall in northeastern Vietnam before 1200 UTC on 5 July. 
  JTWC issued the final warning at 05/1200 UTC, downgrading Toraji to a
  tropical depression, located approximately 155 km east-northeast of 
  Hanoi.  The storm continued west-northwestwards over land and had 
  dissipated by 0000 UTC 6 July.

  B. Meteorological data

     Weak surface wind reports suggest that Tropical Storm Toraji had no 
  significant impact in either Hainan or Vietnam.

  C. Damage and casualties

     There were no reports of damage or casualties associated with Tropical
  Storm Toraji.   The Wikipedia report notes that Guangxi Province 
  evacuated 147,000 persons in response to the storm.   

  (Report written by Kevin Boyle)  

                              TYPHOON MAN-YI
                        (TC-04W / TY 0407 / BEBENG)
                               7 - 20 July

  Man-yi: contributed by Hong Kong, was originally the name of a strait.
          With the construction of a dam, that part of the sea has become
          a reservoir.

  A. Synoptic History

     Typhoon Man-yi formed within a monsoon trough which lay from 
  the Philippines southeastward through Micronesia to around 160E.  It was
  first mentioned as a suspect area in JTWC's STWO at 1600 UTC 5 July 
  when satellite imagery indicated scattered convection developing around
  a partially-exposed LLCC.  A QuikScat pass indicated 10-15 kt winds south
  of this weak centre.  Upper-level analysis indicated moderate wind shear
  and favourable divergence aloft.  The disturbance gradually organized 
  while drifting westwards.  A TCFA was issued at 07/0200 UTC with 
  strengthening convective bands to the south and to the northwest of the 
  centre.  The first warning on Tropical Depression 04W was issued at 
  07/1200 UTC with the centre located approximately 500 nm south-southeast
  of Guam.  TD-04W progressed quickly to a 35-kt tropical storm six hours
  later.  However, JMA did not upgrade the depression to tropical storm
  status and assign the name Man-yi until 1800 UTC 8 July.  Even though
  JMA uses a 10-min avg for their MSW estimates, they equate a Dvorak
  rating of T2.5 to 35 kts, the same as the U. S. warning agencies.  The
  center fix positions between JTWC and JMA diverged fairly significantly
  on 7 and 8 July, so this may have been one factor in the differing
  intensity estimates.

     Tropical Storm Man-yi drifted steadily on a west-northwest to westerly
  course for several days along the southern flank of a mid-level 
  subtropical ridge.  Slow intensification ensued and the storm finally 
  reached typhoon strength at 0600 UTC 10 July while located approximately
  200 nm north of Yap.  Man-yi continued to strengthen and an eye began 
  appearing early on 11 July as the storm entered PAGASA's AOR (where it
  was known locally as Bebeng).  Turning northwestward, then to the
  north-northwest, Man-yi intensified at a more rapid pace and reached its
  peak intensity of 135 kts at 12/1800 UTC while located about 75 nm south
  of Naha, Okinawa.  The typhoon subsequently passed northwards over 
  Okinawa shortly after 13/0000 UTC.  After rounding the subtropical ridge
  and recurving northeastwards,  Man-yi began to weaken on 13 July.  
  Initially making landfall in Kagoshima, Kyushu, late on 13 July with 
  winds of about 85 kts, Man-yi then scraped along much of the southern 
  coastline of Japan.   JTWC downgraded Man-yi to tropical storm intensity
  at 14/1800 UTC before issuing the final warning twelve hours later, the
  centre being then located about 80 nm south-southeast of Tokyo.  However,
  JMA maintained Man-yi as a tropical storm for another 36 hours, finally
  classifying the system as a 40-kt extratropical gale at 17/0000 UTC while
  located far to the east of Japan near 37N/153E.  The gale continued
  moving east-northeastward at a gradually slowing pace, and had weakened
  to a 30-kt LOW near 44N/168E by 20/0600 UTC.  

     Man-yi was a larger than average system.  For example, the wind 
  distribution in the JTWC 13/0600 UTC warning stated that sustained 
  typhoon-force winds extended up to 100 nm over the eastern semicircle 
  and the radius of gale-force winds extended over 200 nm also over the 
  same semicircle.  

  EDITOR'S NOTE: As noted in the narrative above, JTWC's peak estimated
  intensity for Man-yi was 135 kts at 12/1800 UTC.  However, there is
  considerable evidence that this is an overestimation of the cyclone's
  intensity; hence, I did not label Man-yi as a super typhoon in the
  title line.  Dr. Karl Hoarau performed a Dvorak analysis of Typhoon
  Man-yi during the portion of the storm's history, and feels very
  strongly that the storm's intensity at 12/1800 UTC was around 115 kts,
  and near 100 kts when the centre was nearest Okinawa.  Karl's peak 
  intensity of 125 kts was reached at 0000 and 0600 UTC on the 12th.

  Following is a portion of the track file (prepared by the author) 
  around the time of peak intensity (KH = Karl Hoarau):

     Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
            (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                   (mb) (kts) (kts)

  07 JUL 11 0600  17.4 N  132.9 E   955   90    75
  07 JUL 11 1200  18.9 N  131.5 E   955  100    75
  07 JUL 11 1800  19.8 N  130.0 E   950  115    80  
  07 JUL 12 0000  21.0 N  129.1 E   935  120    90  KH: 125 kts
  07 JUL 12 0600  22.2 N  128.6 E   930  125    95  KH: 125 kts
  07 JUL 12 1200  23.6 N  128.0 E   930  125    95  KH: 115 kts
  07 JUL 12 1800  24.9 N  127.4 E   930  135    95  KH: 115 kts
  07 JUL 13 0000  26.0 N  127.4 E   930  125    95  KH: 100 kts/Nr Okinawa
  07 JUL 13 0600  27.3 N  127.7 E   940  130    90  KH:  95 kts
  07 JUL 13 1200  28.4 N  127.7 E   945   95    85  KH:  95 kts
  07 JUL 13 1800  29.3 N  128.1 E   945   90    85

  B. Observations

     Gary forwarded some observations that he received from Derrick 
  Herndon.  (A special thanks to Derrick for sending the information.)
  "Naha recorded a pressure of 939 mb when the center passed about 
  15 miles to the west at 0100 UTC on the 13th.   Winds at the time were 
  sustained at 35 kts (10-minute), putting the CP at about 930 mb.  
  Strongest winds at Naha were 220@62G82 kts at 0200 UTC as the station 
  experienced the second passage of the eyewall.  These winds seem rather 
  weak given the MSLP and robustness of the eyewall on radar, even 
  accounting for the different time averaging.  Kadena's strongest winds 
  were 200@66 kts at 0200 UTC with a gust to 91 kts at 0300 UTC on the 

     According to Karl Hoarau, Naha recorded a peak gust of 109 kts from
  the ESE at 12/2314 UTC just before eye passage.  (Karl's e-mail dated
  the observation on 13 July, which would be true locally for Okinawa,
  but the UTC date must obviously have been 12 July.)

     For the landfall in mainland Japan:

  "Man-yi made a direct hit on Kanoya AFB in southern Kyushu where winds 
  dropped off to 7 kts with 953 mb at 0500 UTC on the 14th.  Strongest 
  winds there were 270@41G64 kts at an elevation of 68 meters.    Aburatsu
  (elevation 15 meters), which was in a better location to experience 
  stronger winds, had 200@63 kts 10-minute wind at 0600Z (no gusts 
  reported) with a pressure of 957 mb.   Also Tanegeshima Island to the 
  south had a sustained wind of 61 kts.  Farther upstream Murotomisaki 
  reported sustained winds of 140@64 kts at an elevation of 164 meters at 
  1200Z on the 14th.  The center passed close to Miyakejima on the 15th at
  0500 UTC when the stationed reported 977 mb.  Strongest winds I could 
  find were to the south at Hachijojima where the station recorded winds 
  of 32G55 kts at 0000 UTC on the 15th."

  C. Links and Comments

     There is not a special, detailed Wikipedia report available for
  Typhoon Man-yi.  However, the regular report (with additional links)
  may be accessed at the following URL:>

  D. Damage and Casualties

     According to the Wikipedia report, three people died and six were
  reported missing when a ship capsized 375 miles northwest of Guam.  Also,
  the storm resulted in 37 injuries and widespread power cuts on Okinawa. 
  A separate report by the BBC indicated that Man-yi was responsible for 
  3 deaths and 70 injuries on the southern Japanese islands of Kyushu and 
  Shikoku.  Train and air services were disrupted and highways closed. 
  More than 300,000 people were evacuated.

  (Report written by Kevin Boyle with additions by Gary Padgett)

                              TYPHOON USAGI
                            (TC-05W / TY 0507)
                            27 July - 7 August

  Usagi: contributed by Japan, is the Japanese word for rabbit

  A. Synoptic History

     The tropical disturbance that spawned Usagi was first mentioned as a
  suspect area in JTWC's regular STWO at 0600 UTC 27 July when it was 
  located approximately 570 nm east-northeast of Saipan.  Animated multi-
  spectral imagery indicated a rapidly consolidating LLCC with flaring deep
  convection.  Upper-level analysis indicated low vertical wind shear and 
  good equatorward outflow, aided by a 200-mb anticyclone just to the 
  north.  The development potential was set at 'fair'.   Moving south-
  westward, the disturbance continued to organize and JTWC issued a TCFA at
  27/1330 UTC.  The first warning on Tropical Depression 05W was issued at
  28/1200 UTC, followed by an upgrade to tropical storm intensity six hours
  later with the centre located approximately 235 nm northeast of Saipan,
  moving west at 12 kts.  JMA raised their 10-min avg MSW to 35 kts at 
  29/0600 UTC and dubbed the system Usagi.

     Drifting westwards, Tropical Storm Usagi quickly intensified, and 
  after passing through the northern Marianas, was upgraded to a 65-kt 
  typhoon at 1800 UTC 29 July.   (JMA's intensity, however, was only 45 kts
  at the time, and it was 36 hours before that agency upgraded Usagi to 
  typhoon status.)  Typhoon Usagi continued to strengthen over the next two
  days while turning onto a northwesterly course along the southwestern 
  periphery of a low to mid-level subtropical ridge.  The storm reached its
  peak intensity of 120 kts at 01/0000 UTC while located approximately
  250 nm west of Iwo Jima.   (JMA's peak estimated 10-min avg MSW was
  90 kts.)   Steady weakening began later on 1 August as Usagi turned 
  north-northwestward towards a break in the subtropical ridge and into 
  a more hostile environment.  The system made landfall in Kyushu, Japan,
  at around 02/1200 UTC with a MSW of 75 kts.  After tracking northward
  across Kyushu, Usagi recurved northeastward into the Sea of Japan and
  across northern Honshu before transforming into an extratropical LOW 
  on 4 August.  Usagi's remnants intensified into a 50-kt extratropical
  storm on 5 August as the system continued east-northeastward across
  the North Pacific.  The storm began to weaken on 6 August as it slowed
  and turned to the north.  By 1200 UTC on the 7th it had weakened to a
  30-kt LOW in the Bering Sea east of the Kamchatka Peninsula.

     At its peak Usagi was an average-sized typhoon with a 60-nm radius
  of typhoon-force winds, and with gales covering a zone approximately
  275 nm in diameter.  The minimum CP estimated by JMA was 945 hPa.

  B. Observations

     Derrick Herndon passed along the following observations:

  "The center passed about 25 miles north of Nyutabaru AFB which reported
  a pressure of 968 mb with winds 290@31G44 kts on August 2nd at 0700Z.  
  The strongest winds from this station were 030@35G72 kts when the center
  was to the east at 0500Z.  The station is near the coast but at 82 meters
  elevation.  The pressure suggests a MSLP around 962 mb.  Seto, located 
  in the straits between Shikoku and Kyushu Islands was better located to 
  experience the strongest winds and had sustained winds 120@60 kts; 
  however, this station is also elevated, being at 143 meters.

  C. Links and Comments

     There is not a special, detailed Wikipedia report available for
  Typhoon Usagi.  However, the regular report (with additional links)
  may be accessed at the following URL:>

  D. Damage and Casualties

     According to news reports, Usagi left 18 people injured in Kyushu. 
  Trees were felled, rivers were flooded, and thousands of homes were left
  without power.  Bullet trains from Honshu were suspended and a number 
  of flights were cancelled.  There were no reports of casualties.

  (Report written by Kevin Boyle)


  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

  Activity for July:  1 deep depression **

  ** - no warnings issued on this system by JTWC

                          Sources of Information

     Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
  cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
  by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
  Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.   Occasionally some
  information may be gleaned from the daily tropical weather outlooks
  and other bulletins issued by the Indian Meteorological Department
  (IMD), which is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional
  Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for the basin.
     The reported maximum sustained winds (MSW) are based on a 1-minute
  averaging period, which is used by all U. S. civilian and military
  weather services for tropical cyclone warnings.     For synoptic
  observations in the North Indian Ocean region, both 10-minute and
  3-minute average winds are employed, but IMD makes no attempt to
  modify the Dvorak scale for estimating tropical cyclone intensity;
  hence, a 1-minute average MSW is implied.  In the North Indian Ocean
  basin JTWC usually does not initiate warnings until a system has
  become well-organized and likely to attain tropical storm status
  within 48 hours.

               North Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for July

     A system which was likely more of a monsoon depression began to take
  shape in the northern Bay of Bengal in early July.  Early on 4 July the
  IMD upgraded the low-pressure area to depression status, fixing the
  center at 04/0300 UTC over the Bangladesh coast about 150 km southeast
  of Kolkata (Calcutta).    The system moved in a west-northwesterly
  direction and 24 hours later lay over Gangetic West Bengal about 50 km
  north of Kolkata.  Even though inland, the system strengthened slightly
  and had become a deep depression (30 kts) by 05/1200 UTC while remaining
  practically stationary.  The deep depression subsequently began to move
  westward and by 0300 UTC on 6 July was close to Bankura.  By early on
  the 7th it had weakened back to depression status (25 kts) over North
  Chhattisgarh, close to Ambikapur.  The last reference by IMD available
  to the author was at 0300 UTC on 8 July with the slowly weakening
  system located over eastern Madhya Pradesh about 50 km southeast of
  Sagar.  According to the online Wikipedia report, the system was down-
  graded to a low-pressure area later on the 8th, but experienced a brief
  re-intensification to depression status the next day near Shivpuri in
  northwestern Madhya Pradesh.  However, it weakened again later that day
  and the IMD issued its final bulletin.

     JTWC mentioned the system in a STWO issued at 0900 UTC on 4 July, but
  since the center of circulation was already inland in southwestern
  Bangladesh, it was not considered a candidate for tropical cyclone
  development.  The Wikipedia report states that the system caused heavy
  rains in the Calcutta area with 16 casualties.  Almost 20% of the
  cumulative rainfall for the entire monsoon season fell in three days.

     Since the system was almost entirely an over land depression, I did
  not prepare a track for it in the July cyclone tracks file.  However,
  I am including one below based on the few IMD bulletins I have available.

  Storm Name: None                  Cyclone Number: None    Basin: NIO

     Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
            (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                   (mb) (kts) (kts)
  07 JUL 04 0300  22.0 N   89.5 E         25
  07 JUL 04 1200  23.0 N   89.5 E         25
  07 JUL 05 0300  23.0 N   88.0 E         25
  07 JUL 05 1200  23.0 N   88.0 E         30
  07 JUL 06 0300  23.0 N   87.0 E         30
  07 JUL 07 0300  23.5 N   83.5 E         25
  07 JUL 08 0300  23.5 N   79.0 E         25

  SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E

  Activity for July:  1 tropical disturbance **
                      1 tropical storm ++

  ** - no warnings issued by MFR or JTWC
  ++ - classified as a tropical cyclone by JTWC and BoM Perth

              Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for July

     Organized tropical cyclonic systems are very rare in the South Indian
  Ocean during the month of July, but during 2007, not one, but two systems
  formed over waters west of 90E.    The second of these, designated as
  TC-01S by JTWC, formed in the extreme eastern portion of the basin and
  eventually moved east of 90E into the AOR of BoM Perth.  While not
  treated as a tropical cyclone operationally by the Perth TCWC, during a
  post-storm analysis the determination was made, based primarily upon
  QuikScat data, that the system had in fact reached tropical cyclone
  (i.e., tropical storm) intensity, and it is now officially classified as 
  an unnamed tropical cyclone.  A report on TC-01S follows.

     On 21 July, about a week prior to the formation of TC-01S, an area of
  convection appeared approximately 110 nm east-northeast of Diego Garcia
  and persisted.  Animated EIR and AMSU data revealed a developing LLCC.
  The system was located within a region of moderate vertical wind shear
  with weak divergence aloft.  The next day the center was fully-exposed,
  but Diego Garcia had reported 24-hour pressure falls of almost 5 mb, and
  a QuikScat pass at 22/0142 UTC had indicated strong gradient winds on
  the southern periphery of the disturbance with strong convergence over
  the southwestern quadrant; therefore, JTWC upped the potential for 
  development to 'fair' at 22/1030 UTC.  Based on satellite fix bulletins 
  from JTWC, the peak winds during this phase were likely around 25 kts 
  (1-min avg).  The system began to drift in a south-southwesterly 
  direction and gradually became better organized.   By 1800 UTC on 23 July
  the system was located approximately 95 nm south of Diego Garcia and the
  LLCC was partially-exposed.  However, by late on the 24th the system had
  weakened and was no longer considered suspect for tropical cyclone 

     Dvorak ratings from JTWC reached T2.0/2.0 at 22/1130 UTC, and peaked
  at T2.5/2.5 at 22/1730 UTC, after which they began to decline.  However,
  Dvorak estimates from SAB were at T2.5/2.5 from 22/1430 through 23/0830
  UTC.  Based on consistent Dvorak T-numbers of T2.0 or higher from two
  independent agencies, it is very likely that peak 1-min avg winds were
  around 30 kts, and possibly could have reached 35 kts on the 22nd and
  23rd.   The track for this system (NRL Invest 90S) which I prepared for
  the companion cyclone tracks file was based completely on satellite
  fix bulletins issued by JTWC and SAB.  Since neither MFR nor JTWC issued
  warnings on this system, I refrained from assigning a MSW value of 
  35 kts, but winds to tropical storm-strength were possible considering
  the intensity estimates from SAB and JTWC.

                             TROPICAL CYCLONE
                               27 - 31 July

     A tropical LOW formed in the Southwest Indian Ocean just east of 90E
  in late July and intensified into a minimal tropical cyclone, as
  analyzed by both JTWC and BoM Perth.   Development to tropical depression
  status and to near tropical storm intensity occurred in the AOR of Meteo
  France La Reunion, but that agency did not consider it well-organized
  enough to initiate warnings until it was on the verge of moving into
  Perth's AOR.  Although the latter agency did not name the system in real
  time, it was upgraded to tropical cyclone status during a post-storm
  review, mainly on the basis of QuikScat data.

     A low formed within the near-equatorial trough on 26 July.  QuikScat
  data showed a broad trough near 4S/86E at 26/0100 UTC, and then a tighter
  circulation with a well-defined LLCC at 26/1241 UTC.    An area of
  associated convection developed on 27 July approximately 810 nm east
  of Diego Garcia, or a like distance northwest of the Cocos Islands.
  Animated infrared imagery, a 27/1419 UTC SSMI microwave image, and a
  27/1215 UTC QuikScat pass revealed loosely-organized convective banding
  surrounding the LLCC.  The system was located in a region of good
  poleward outflow but with moderate vertical shear.   Based on a JTWC
  satellite fix bulletin, winds were likely about 25 kts (1-min avg).
  AMSU data a few hours later revealed improved banding so the potential
  for development was upgraded to 'fair' at 27/2230 UTC.  As the system
  drifted generally southeastward it continued to exhibit increased
  organization, so JTWC issued a TCFA at 28/0230.

     The system underwent a temporary weakening later on the 28th as the
  center became exposed, but a second TCFA was issued at 29/0130 UTC.
  The first JTWC warning on TC-01S was issued at 1800 UTC on 29 July with
  the center located approximately 400 nm west-northwest of Cocos Island,
  tracking south-southeastward at 15 kts.  The system by now was already
  west of 90E, and BoM Perth issued a gale warning at 30/0400 UTC,
  estimating the maximum 10-min avg winds at 30 kts but forecast to
  increase to gale force.  JTWC's second and final warning was issued
  at 30/0600 UTC, and while the MSW was still held at 35 kts, vertical
  shear had increased and the system was forecast to quickly dissipate.
  TC-01S reached its westernmost point around 1200 UTC 30 July when it
  was located about 350 nm south of the Cocos Islands.  Afterward the
  system began to drift west-northwestward and weaken.  The final Perth
  warning at 31/0600 UTC placed the LOW very near 90E about 450 nm south-
  southwest of Cocos.

     The following information is taken from a preliminary report on the
  storm prepared by BoM Perth and sent to the author by Joe Courtney. (A
  special thanks to Joe for sending the report.)  As noted above, the
  Perth TCWC upgraded the LOW to tropical cyclone status based primarily
  on QuikScat data instead of conventional Dvorak estimates.  Cyclone
  intensity is estimated to have been reached at 29/0600 UTC and continuing
  through 30/0600 UTC.  Dvorak estimates during this time ranged from T2.5 
  to T3.0.  Operationally, the lower value was chosen, but upon re-analysis
  the higher value was utilized, being biased from supporting QuikScat
  images at 29/1100 and 29/2310 UTC.  The former image captured only the
  eastern part of the system, but some 30-40 kt wind flags showed up on
  the eastern flank, which suggests that gales likely surrounded at least
  half the LLCC.  Ambiguity plots and NRCS wind speed plots from the latter
  image also suggest that gales surrounded the center.  Also, an ASCAT
  image from 29/1500 UTC depicted 30-40 kt winds around the center.

     The LOW formed over warmer-than-normal waters in excess of 28 C, but
  as the system moved south of 10S is encountered SSTs of less than 27 C,
  and during the 30th, when it reached 12S, the SSTs were estimated at
  less than 25 C.

     Following is a "best track" for the tropical cyclone prepared by the
  Perth TCWC (abridged):

  Year   Mon Day  Hour   Lat     Lon     MSW   Peak    Cent
                 (UTC)  (deg)   (deg)  10-min  Gusts   Press
                                        (kts) (kts)    (hPa)
  2007    7   26  1200   3.0 S  86.3 E	  20	45	1004
  2007	  7   26  1800	 3.4 S	86.3 E	  20	45	1004
  2007	  7   27  0000	 3.7 S	86.2 E	  25	45	1002
  2007	  7   27  0600	 4.1 S	86.1 E	  25	45	1000
  2007	  7   27  1200	 4.4 S	86.1 E	  25	45	1000
  2007	  7   27  1800	 4.8 S	86.0 E	  25	45	1000
  2007	  7   28  0000	 5.3 S	86.0 E	  25	45	1000
  2007	  7   28  0600	 6.0 S	86.0 E	  25	45	1000
  2007	  7   28  1200	 6.6 S	86.5 E	  25	45	1000
  2007	  7   28  1800	 7.3 S	87.4 E	  25	45	1000
  2007	  7   29  0000	 8.1 S	88.4 E	  30	45	 998
  2007	  7   29  0600	 9.0 S	89.0 E	  35	50	 994
  2007	  7   29  1200	 9.8 S	89.9 E	  40	55	 992
  2007	  7   29  1800	10.4 S	90.4 E	  40	55	 992
  2007	  7   30  0000	11.0 S	91.2 E	  40	55	 992
  2007	  7   30  0300	11.2 S	91.6 E	  35	50	 994
  2007	  7   30  0600	11.7 S	91.7 E	  35	50	 994
  2007	  7   30  1200	12.1 S	91.6 E	  30	45	 998
  2007	  7   30  1800	12.3 S	91.0 E	  30	45	 998
  2007	  7   31  0000	12.2 S	90.3 E	  25	45	1000
  2007	  7   31  0600	12.0 S	89.9 E	  25	45	1000
  2007	  7   31  1200	12.0 S	89.6 E	  25	45	1000
  2007	  7   31  1800	12.0 S	88.8 E	  25	45	1004
  2007	  8   01  0000	12.0 S	87.9 E	  25	45	1004

  It should be noted that BoM Perth analyzed TC-01S to be a stronger
  system than JTWC did (40-kt 10-min avg vs 35-kt 1-min avg).

     TC-01S is only the second tropical cyclone on record to have formed
  during July in the Western Australian Region.  The other was Tropical
  Cyclone Lindsay, which occurred in the same general region on 10-11 July
  1996 and was at minimal tropical cyclone intensity for only 21 hours.

     The BoM report concludes with the following very true and relevant
  statement:  "It is arguable that without QuikScat imagery that this
  system would not have been classified as a tropical cyclone going by
  imagery alone.  This type of system may not be represented in the
  historical database, which is significant when making conclusions about
  trends in the frequency of tropical cyclones."

  (Report written by Gary Padgett with significant contributions from
  Joe Courtney)


  Activity for July:  1 tropical cyclone **

  ** - Moved into Perth's AOR from west of 90E

                  Northwest Australia/Southeast Indian Ocean
                          Tropical Activity for July

     A system being carried as a minimal tropical storm by JTWC (numbered
  TC-01S) moved into the Perth AOR on 30 July.  Gale warnings were issued
  as a precaution in case the system should intensify into a tropical
  cyclone (10-min avg winds of 34 kts or higher).    The LOW was not named
  operationally, but during a post-storm analysis it was determined that
  the system had been a short-lived tropical cyclone.   A report on this
  unnamed tropical cyclone may be found in the preceding section covering
  the Southwest Indian Ocean basin.



  Activity for July:  No tropical cyclones


  SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E

  Activity for July:  No tropical cyclones



     The purpose of this section is to list some websites where many and
  varied types of tropical cyclone information are archived.  Many readers
  will know about these already, but for the benefit of those who don't,
  I wanted to include them. 

  (1) Aircraft Reconnaissance Information

     Various types of messages from reconnaissance aircraft may be
  retrieved from the following FTP site:>

     Information regarding how to interpret the coded reconnaissance
  messages may be found at the following URL:>

  Links are also included to websites with further information about the
  U. S. Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron and the NOAA Air-
  craft Operations Center.

  (2) Archived Advisories

     All the advisory products (public advisories, forecast/advisories,
  strike probabilities, discussions, various graphics) issued by TPC/NHC
  are archived on TPC's website.  For the current year (using 2004 as an
  example), the archived products can be found at:>

  Links to tropical products archives for earlier years are available at
  the following URL:>

  JTWC warnings for past storms are archived on the NRL Monterrey website:>

  On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left 
  corner of the screen.

     I am not aware at the moment of any other TCWC which archives all
  its tropical cyclone warning/advisory products for public access, but
  if I learn of any, I will add them to this list.

  (3) Satellite Imagery

     Satellite images of tropical cyclones in various sensor bands are
  available on the NRL Monterrey and University of Wisconsin websites,
  courtesy of Jeff Hawkins and Chris Velden and their associates.  The
  links are:>>

  On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left 
  corner of the screen.  For the CIMSS site, a link to data archives is 
  located in the lower left portion of the screen.

     Additional tropical satellite imagery, along with looping ability for
  composite microwave imagery for the Western Hemisphere north of the
  equator, can be found at:

  (1) For the Eastern North Pacific:>

  (2) For the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea:>

  (4) Cyclone Tracking Information

     There is a U. S. Navy site that tracks tropical cyclones at 6-hourly 
  intervals which often includes pre and post-advisory positions.  The 
  link to the site is:>

  These tracks are often updated as further analysis occurs and may be
  considered as sort of a working "best track".

     Steve Young has compiled many of these tracks onto a single webpage
  which is very user-friendly:>

     I'm sure there are other sites with available imagery available, and
  as I learn of them, I will add the links to this list.


                               EXTRA FEATURE

     In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
  material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
  acronyms.   I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
  in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then.  Most of
  these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
  few aren't clear to some.  To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
  Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the August, 1998
  summary.  I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in
  order to help keep them from being too long.  If anyone would like to
  receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy
  to send them a copy.


  AUTHOR'S NOTE:  This summary should be considered a very preliminary 
  overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
  tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
  warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers.  The
  information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
  intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
  on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
  on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
  centers will be passed along from time to time.

    The track files are not being sent via e-mail.  They can be retrieved
  from the archive sites listed below.  (Note: I do have a limited e-mail
  distribution list for the track files.    If anyone wishes to receive
  these via e-mail, please send me a message.)

    Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
  created in DOS editor.  Download to disk and use a viewer such as
  Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.

     The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
  1997.   Back issues can be obtained from the following websites
  (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, Chris
  Landsea, and John Diebolt):>>>>>

     Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
  be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office.  Their site
  contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
  globally on a monthly basis.  The URL is:>


     JTWC now has available on its website the Annual Tropical Cyclone
  Report (ATCR) for 2005 (2004-2005 season for the Southern Hemisphere).
  ATCRs for earlier years are available also.

     The URL is:>

     Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
  tracking charts for the 2006 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
  tropical cyclones; also, storm reports for all the 2006 Atlantic
  and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as
  track charts and reports on storms from earlier years. 

     The URL is:>

     A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales,
  Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries.


  Gary Padgett
  E-mail:  [email protected]
  Phone:  334-222-5327

  Kevin Boyle  (Northwest Pacific)
  E-mail:  [email protected]

  Simon Clarke  (Northeast Australia/Coral Sea, South Pacific)
  E-mail:  [email protected]


Document: summ0707.htm
Updated: 24th September 2007

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