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Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary August 2007
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]


                                AUGUST, 2007

  (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
  information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
  the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)


                             AUGUST HIGHLIGHTS

   --> Destructive hurricane strikes Windward Islands, Jamaica and Mexico
   --> Weak tropical storm remnants re-intensify hundreds of miles inland
       over Oklahoma
   --> Major hurricane threatens Hawaii
   --> Weak tropical storm brings flooding rains to Vietnam
   --> Typhoon strikes Taiwan and Chinese mainland
   --> Typhoon strikes Japan near Tokyo



     Short reports with satellite pictures and small-scale maps for all 
  tropical cyclones may be found at the following links:>>>>>

  For some storms more detailed reports have been prepared.  In those cases
  I will include the specific links in the reports for the applicable
  tropical cyclones.


                 !!!!!!!!!!!!  EXTRA FEATURE  !!!!!!!!!!!!

                     PART 2 - THE SENSATIONAL SIXTIES

  A. Introduction

     This is the second in a series of monthly features detailing the
  history of the naming of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin.  The
  early history of hurricane naming as well as the complete sets of names
  used during the decade of the 1950s may be found in the July summary.
  This month's article describes the 1960s and includes the sets of names
  for the period 1960-1970.

     In 1960 forecasters opted to begin rotating names in a regular
  fashion, and so four alphabetical sets were established to be repeated
  every four years.  These new sets followed the example of the Western
  Pacific typhoon sets and excluded names beginning with the letters
  Q, U, X, Y and Z.   However, the six-letter, two-syllable restriction
  was apparently lifted, as names like FLORENCE and FRANCES were placed
  into the sets.   These four sets were used in the Atlantic until being
  replaced by a 10-year list in 1971.  Names of destructive hurricanes
  were retired and replaced with names of the same alphabetical rank.
  Thus, DONNA from 1960 was replaced with DORA for 1964; CARLA, ESTHER,
  and HATTIE were retired after 1961 and replaced with CAROL, ELENA, and
  HOLLY for 1965; and although not particularly significant, DAISY from
  1962 was replaced with DOROTHY for 1966.

     Originally, the name HANNAH stood in the 1963 set, but at the last
  minute was replaced with HELENA.  This practice of last minute changes
  to the sets became commonplace through the latter 1960s.    I can
  well remember that in almost every year from 1966 through 1969,
  there were deviations from the advertised set.   Part of this was due
  to an attempt to remove all names which were duplicated in either the
  Eastern or Western North Pacific lists.     In the 1966 set FLOSSY
  was replaced with FAITH, apparently not long before the season began.
  The set for 1967 had originally been identical to the 1963 set except
  that FLORA had been retired and replaced with FREDA, but as the season
  progressed, what should have been CINDY, DEBRA, FREDA, GINNY and
  HELENA instead turned out to be CHLOE, DORIA, FERN, GINGER and HEIDI.

     Even more juggling of names occurred with the 1968 and 1969 sets.
  In the 1968 set CANDY, DOLLY, HANNAH and ISABEL had been selected to 
  replace CLEO, DORA, HILDA and ISBELL from 1964.   However, ISABEL was 
  removed to the 1970 list to replace INEZ (retired after the 1966 season),
  and INGRID placed in the 1968 set.  Also, ETHEL and FLORENCE were removed
  and EDNA and FELICE substituted in.     Then, apparently at the last 
  minute, FELICE was moved to the 1970 set to replace FAITH, and FRANCES 
  was moved from the 1969 set to the 1968 list with the unusual name 
  FRANCELIA being inserted into the 1969 set.   I well remember being 
  totally surprised when the sixth storm of 1968 was named and it
  turned out to be FRANCES instead of FELICE.   And, even though not
  likely at all to be called into use, WINNY was replaced with WESLEY in
  the 1968 set, ostensibly since WINNIE was a typhoon name in use at the 

     In the late spring of 1969 I wrote NHC and requested a copy of the
  latest brochure which contained all the Atlantic and North Pacific
  names.   From it I learned that BETSY from 1965 had been replaced with
  BLANCHE; ELENA had been replaced with EVE; and of course that the
  sixth name was now FRANCELIA.       However, the third name in the
  printed list was CAROL, but it was scratched through and CAMILLE
  penciled in.   This was apparently a last minute change, but one which
  proved to be very fortuitous in the annals of Atlantic hurricane
  history.   If this change had not been made, there would have been two
  very famous and destructive hurricanes named CAROL to keep straight.
  (Incidentally, the name CINDY was chosen to replace CAMILLE in the set
  for 1973, but that set was never used again.)

  B. Sources of Information

     For the 1960s I actually didn't need to refer to any source.
  Back in my teenage years I pretty much had a photographic memory, and
  I memorized those sets of names so thoroughly that I can still today
  quite confidently recall them.  But back then the NWS had available
  a little brochure called "The Naming of Hurricanes" which contained
  all the Atlantic and North Pacific sets and was updated every couple
  of years, and I would usually write and request a current copy every
  2 or 3 years.

  C. The Sets of Names

                      ATLANTIC HURRICANE NAME SETS
                              1960 - 1970

   (An asterisk follows names that were actually assigned to storms.
   A number in parentheses following a name refers to a note following
   the lists.)

   1960        1961        1962        1963        1964        1965
   ----        ----        ----        ----        ----        ----
   Abby *      Anna *      Alma *      Arlene *    Abby *      Anna *
   Brenda *    Betsy *     Becky *     Beulah *    Brenda *    Betsy *
   Cleo *      Carla *     Celia *     Cindy *     Cleo *      Carol *
   Donna *     Debbie *    Daisy *     Debra *     Dora *      Debbie *
   Ethel *     Esther *    Ella *      Edith *     Ethel *     Elena *
   Florence *  Frances *   Flossy      Flora *     Florence *  Frances
   Gladys      Gerda *     Greta       Ginny *     Gladys *    Gerda
   Hilda       Hattie *    Hallie      Helena *    Hilda *     Holly
   Isbell      Inga *      Inez        Irene       Isbell *    Inga
   Janet       Jenny *     Judith      Janice      Janet       Jenny
   Katy        Kara        Kendra      Kristy      Katy        Kara
   Lila        Laurie      Lois        Laura       Lila        Laurie
   Molly       Martha      Marsha      Margo       Molly       Martha
   Nita        Netty       Noreen      Nona        Nita        Netty
   Odette      Orva        Orpha       Orchid      Odette      Orva
   Paula       Peggy       Patty       Portia      Paula       Peggy
   Roxie       Rhoda       Rena        Rachel      Roxie       Rhoda
   Stella      Sadie       Sherry      Sandra      Stella      Sadie
   Trudy       Tanya       Thora       Terese      Trudy       Tanya
   Vesta       Virgy       Vicky       Verna       Vesta       Virgy
   Winny       Wenda       Wilna       Wallis      Winny       Wenda

   1966           1967           1968           1969           1970
   ----           ----           ----           ----           ----
   Alma *         Arlene *       Abby *         Anna *         Alma *
   Becky *        Beulah *       Brenda *       Blanche *      Becky *
   Celia *        Chloe *        Candy *        Camille *      Celia *
   Dorothy *      Doria *        Dolly *        Debbie *       Dorothy *
   Ella *         Edith *        Edna *         Eve *          Ella *
   Faith *        Fern *         Frances *      Francelia *    Felice *
   Greta *        Ginger *       Gladys *       Gerda *        Greta *
   Hallie *       Heidi *        Hannah         Holly *        Hallie
   Inez *         Irene          Ingrid         Inga *         Isabel
   Judith *       Janice         Janet          Jenny *        Judith
   Kendra * (1)   Kristy         Katy           Kara *         Kendra
   Lois *         Laura          Lila           Laurie *       Lois
   Marsha         Margo          Molly          Martha *       Marsha
   Noreen         Nona           Nita           Netty          Noreen
   Orpha          Orchid         Odette         Orva           Orpha
   Patty          Portia         Paula          Peggy          Patty
   Rena           Rachel         Roxie          Rhoda          Rena
   Sherry         Sandra         Stella         Sadie          Sherry
   Thora          Terese         Trudy          Tanya          Thora
   Vicky          Verna          Vesta          Virgy          Vicky
   Wilna          Wallis         Wesley         Wenda          Wilna


   (1) During a post-season data analysis, it was determined that Tropical
       Storm Kendra had not met the minimum requirements for a tropical 
       storm and currently is not included in the HURDAT database.

                            ACTIVITY BY BASINS

  ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico

  Activity for August:  1 tropical depression **
                        2 tropical storms ++
                        1 intense hurricane

  ** - system became an intense hurricane in September

  ++ - one of these formed in July and became extratropical on 1 August

                          Sources of Information

     Most of the information presented below was obtained from the
  various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction
  Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida:
  discussions, public advisories, forecast/advisories, tropical weather
  outlooks, special tropical disturbance statements, etc.    Some
  additional information may have been gleaned from the monthly
  summaries prepared by the hurricane specialists and available on
  TPC/NHC's website.     All references to sustained winds imply a
  1-minute averaging period unless otherwise noted.

                    Atlantic Tropical Activity for August

     Over the period 1950-2006, the averages for August are 2.8 NS, 1.6 H,
  and 0.6 IH.  Based on numbers of storms, August, 2007, was slightly below
  normal with 2 NS and 1 H.  The hurricane, however, was an intense and
  far-traveled Category 5 storm, so the average level of tropical cyclone
  activity for August was near normal.   As the month of August opened,
  Tropical Storm Chantal, which had formed on the last day of July, was
  transforming into an extratropical storm as it crossed Newfoundland's
  Avalon Peninsula, bringing very heavy rainfall.  (The report on Chantal
  may be found in the July summary.)  During the first week of August,
  a westward-moving tropical wave began to show some signs of developing
  as it neared the Windward Islands.  The disturbance, designated as
  Invest 99L by NRL, was investigated by a USAF reconnaissance plane on
  the afternoon of 1 August, but the plane was unable to find a closed
  surface circulation.  The system was investigated again the next day
  when it exhibited greater organization than on the previous day, but
  still a closed circulation could not be found.  The wave continued to
  move rapidly across the Caribbean and by the 4th was moving inland into
  Central America.

     The two named storms of August both formed near mid-month.  Hurricane
  Dean formed in the eastern Atlantic, a true Cape Verde hurricane, and
  sailed westward on a remarkably straight trajectory which carried it
  through the Windward Islands, across the Caribbean passing just south
  of Jamaica, into the southern Yucatan Peninsula, and finally into
  the Gulf Coast of Mexico north of Veracruz.  Dean had reached Category 2
  levels by the time it squeezed into the eastern Caribbean between the
  islands of Martinique and St. Lucia, and eventually became an intense
  Category 5 hurricane just prior to striking the Yucatan Peninsula.  The
  906-mb CP measured just before landfall ranks Dean as the 9th most
  intense Atlantic hurricane on record as measured by central pressure.

     Also around mid-month, Tropical Storm Erin blossomed briefly in the
  central Gulf of Mexico but never strengthened beyond minimal tropical
  storm intensity.  The storm weakened to a tropical depression as it
  was making landfall in Texas, and the remnants wandered over central and
  western Texas, dumping copious amounts of moisture while maintaining
  a fairly well-defined circulation.  During the early morning of the 19th,
  as the system was moving over Oklahoma, it suddenly re-intensified to
  sustained tropical storm intensity, producing gusts above hurricane
  force and sporting a well-defined radar eye reminiscent of a hurricane.
  Just how this surprise last hurrah of Erin will be treated in the Best
  Track database remains to be seen.  Reports follow on both Dean and Erin.
  Also following is a short report on a system southeast of the New England
  coast at the end of August which displayed some features suggesting that
  it could possibly have been a short-lived tropical storm.

     Another westward-moving tropical wave spawned a tropical depression
  on the final day of August just east of the Windward Islands.  This
  system strengthened into Tropical Storm Felix on 1 September and within
  two days was another intense Category 5 cyclone traversing the Caribbean 
  on its way to a Nicaraguan landfall.  Felix will be covered in the 
  September summary.
  NOTE: The official TPC/NHC storm reports are already available online
  for many of the 2007 Atlantic tropical cyclones, although not for
  Dean and Erin.  Links to the individual reports may be found at the
  following URL:>

                              HURRICANE DEAN
                              13 - 23 August

  A. Introduction and Synoptic History

     Hurricane Dean was the first hurricane of the 2007 Atlantic season
  and became the first landfalling Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic
  basin since Hurricane Andrew in August, 1992.  Dean left a trail of
  death and destruction across the Caribbean from the Windward Islands
  to Mexico.  The storm's minimum central pressure of 906 mb ranks it as
  the ninth most intense Atlantic hurricane in history as measured by
  central pressure.

     A tropical wave which exited the western coast of Africa during the
  second week of August immediately began to show signs of development.
  A low-pressure area formed in association with the wave on 12 August and
  by the next day had become organized sufficiently that advisories were
  initiated on Tropical Depression 04, located a few hundred miles west-
  southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.     Tropical Storm Dean was
  christened on the 14th while located about 1300 nm east of the Lesser
  Antilles, and the cyclone continued to strengthen as it moved fairly
  rapidly westward under the influence of a well-defined ridge to the
  north.  Easterly shear hampered the intensification process a little,
  but did not prevent Dean from strengthening.  Hurricane intensity was
  reached on 16 August with the storm centered about 435 nm east of
  Barbados.  During the morning of 17 August the center of Hurricane Dean
  passed between the islands of St. Lucia and Martinique with the northern
  eyewall passing over Martinique with a MSW of 85 kts--a Category 2
  hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson scale.   Dean was the first tropical
  cyclone to bring full hurricane-force winds to Martinique since Hurricane
  David in 1979, and the first to bring hurricane winds to St. Lucia since
  Hurricane Allen in 1980.

     After passing through the Lesser Antilles Dean continued to move on a
  slightly north-of-due-west track through the eastern Caribbean Sea.
  Intensification continued, with Dean reaching Category 3 intensity by
  early afternoon on the 17th and Category 4 status during the evening.
  Winds reached 130 kts early on the 18th with Dean located about 600 nm
  east-southeast of Jamaica.  The center of the intense storm passed about
  20 nm south of the southernmost point of Jamaica during the evening of
  19 August with the MSW estimated at 125 kts.  As Dean continued on its
  remarkably constant heading across the deep warm waters of the north-
  western Caribbean, the storm began to deepen once again and the cyclone
  became a Category 5 hurricane very early on 21 August about 175 nm east
  of Chetumal, Mexico.  Intense Hurricane Dean reached its peak intensity
  of 145 kts with an attendant CP of 906 mb just before making landfall
  near Costa Maya on the Yucatan Peninsula, becoming the first Category 5
  hurricane to strike the Yucatan since Hurricane Gilbert in 1988.

     While crossing the Yucantan Peninsula, Dean weakened to a Category 1
  hurricane and emerged into the Bay of Campeche late on 21 August.  As
  Dean moved west-northwestward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico,
  it began to re-organize and managed to reach Category 2 status with
  winds of 85 kts just prior to making its final landfall about 65 km
  south of Tuxpan, Mexico, around midday on 22 August.  Once inland the
  cyclone began to weaken quickly and the LLCC dissipated early on the
  23rd over the mountainous terrain of central Mexico.  A weak LOW later
  reached the Eastern Pacific but did not show any signs of redevelopment.

     The above synoptic history of Hurricane Dean is largely taken from
  the monthly summary prepared by the Hurricane Specialists at TPC/NHC.

     A very thorough and detailed report on the storm may be found at the
  following link:>

  B. Storm Impacts

     The Wikipedia report on Dean has extensive information on the
  impacts of this great hurricane across the Caribbean, so only a
  brief synopsis gleaned from the Wikipedia report will be given here.

     In the Lesser Antilles Dean caused moderate damage on the islands
  of St. Lucia, Martinique and Dominica where roads were washed out and
  houses damaged.  There were six fatalities in this area, where the
  agriculture-based economies of the three islands, as well as that of
  Guadeloupe, were significantly affected.  Between 80 and 100% of the
  banana crops were destroyed.  No dollar estimates are currently

     In the Dominican Republic no strong winds were experienced as the
  center of Dean passed about 145 nm south of Santo Domingo.  However,
  there was some flooding from heavy rainfalls.  There were six deaths
  attributed to the hurricane, all due to drowning.  A 16-year old boy
  was swept out to sea by heavy surf near Santo Domingo, and five
  fishermen drowned in the northern province of Santiago after their
  boat capsized due to the effects of wind and torrential rain on an
  inland lake.

     In Haiti the outer fringes of Hurricane Dean brought heavy squalls
  and torrential rains, resulting in power outages and landslides.  Several
  hundred homes were destroyed by the landslides, and there were eleven
  fatalities attributed to the storm in Haiti.

     Jamaica was much more adversely affected by Hurricane Dean as the
  northern eyewall just missed the island while at Category 4 intensity.
  Fortunately, only three lives were reported lost due to the storm.
  Damage to agriculture was widespread with 40% of the sugarcane crop,
  80-100% of the banana crop, 75% of coffee trees under three years old,
  and 20% of the top layer of the cocoa crop were lost.  Total damage
  in Jamaica has been estimated at around US$4.9 billion.

     In Mexico, the town of Majahual (population 200) near where the center
  of Dean made landfall was reportedly "almost flattened" by the storm.
  Storm surge and high winds severely damaged or destroyed hundreds of
  buildings.  A least fifteen deaths have been reported in Mexico due to
  Hurricane Dean.  Several of the deaths were due to mudslides triggered
  by the heavy rains.  Total storm damage in Mexico is estimated to be
  at least US$800 million.  

     Some damage was reported from Belize, mainly to buildings and houses
  in Corozal and Orange Walk.  Also, the sugar and papaya industries were
  affected.   Some minor effects of the storm were felt in Cuba, and in
  the Cayman Islands there were some rain-flooded roads and localized
  power outages, but there were no deaths or serious injuries reported.

     No land impacts of Dean were felt in the United States, but the storm
  caused heavy surf and rip currents along Florida beaches, leading to
  one drowning near Siesta Key.  After reaching the Pacific, the remnants
  of Dean eventually moved inland near Santa Barbara, California, bringing
  heavy thunderstorms and localized flooding to coastal Southern California
  on the morning of 26 August.  The system crossed the Mojave Desert on the
  morning of the 27th, with Las Vegas, Nevada, receiving a new daily
  record rainfall of 14.7 mm, leading to some flash flooding and minor

  C. Discussion of Dean's Peak Intensity

     The 906-mb central pressure reading obtained by dropsonde shortly
  before landfall on 21 August ranks as the ninth lowest minimum central
  pressure measured in an Atlantic hurricane.  The lower minimum central
  pressures are:

  905 mb - Camille  (17 August 1969)
  905 mb - Mitch  (26 October 1998)
  902 mb - Katrina  (28 August 2005)
  899 mb - Allen  (7 August 1980)
  895 mb - Rita  (22 September 2005)
  892 mb - Labor Day Hurricane  (3 September 1935)
  888 mb - Gilbert  (14 September 1988)
  882 mb - Wilma  (19 October 2005)

     Before focusing on Dean's peak intensity, it would be worthwhile to
  look at the storm's first round of significant strengthening on 18 and
  19 August.  Between 18/0000 and 18/0600 UTC Dean's CP fell 16 mb from
  946 mb to 930 mb with the MSW being raised from 115 kts to 130 kts.
  The MSW of 130 kts was well-supported by a peak FLW of 145 kts at
  18/1148 UTC.  The CP leveled off at 930 mb for several hours, then began
  to drop again during the evening.  Interestingly, the storm showed signs
  of slight weakening during this time due to structural changes in the
  inner core.  The NHC discussion for 19/0300 UTC noted that radar imagery
  onboard the USAF reconnaissance aircraft depicted concentric eyewalls at
  radii of about 10 and 20 nm with the outer eyewall becoming a little
  better defined.  Wind data at flight level, from the SFMR, and from
  dropsondes directly supported an intensity of no more than about 115 kts.
  However, the CP had continued to drop and a reading of 918 mb was taken
  at 19/0105 UTC with a peak FLW of 123 kts in the northwest quadrant at
  19/0111 UTC.   It light of all this, the assumption was made that the
  maximum wind had not been sampled and the MSW was lowered to 125 kts, but
  the forecaster commented that this was perhaps generous.

     Dean's MSW remained at 125 kts for a period of 24 hours.  It was upped
  back to 130 kts at 20/0600 UTC.  The most recent observations from a
  Hurricane Hunters reconnaissance aircraft indicated a concentric eyewall
  structure with a peak FLW of 145 kts and a SFMR surface wind measurement
  of 125 kts in the northeast quadrant.  A GPS dropsonde measured a surface
  wind of 133 kts in the same quadrant, but based on lower-layer averages
  from the dropsonde, it was felt that the reading didn't quite correspond
  to a 1-min avg surface wind.  The storm's CP at this time had fallen to
  926 mb after having risen to 930 mb during the morning of the 19th.

     During the morning of 20 August microwave imagery revealed that Dean
  had a single eyewall which had become better defined with colder cloud
  tops.  Communications problems prevented much of the data from the
  early afternoon reconnaissance mission from being received, but a
  20/1930 UTC vortex fix was received, reporting a CP of 918 mb with a
  maximum FLW of 151 kts.  Earlier in the flight a peak SFMR wind of
  123 kts was observed, and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were
  127 kts at 1800 UTC.  Based on all this, the MSW was held at 130 kts.
  A reconnaissance plane at 21/0000 UTC reported a CP of 914 mb with a
  peak FLW of 162 kts, which would correspond to a surface MSW of 145 kts.
  Due to continuing communications problems, much of the SFMR and drop-
  sonde data was not being received in real time.   The 21/0000 UTC
  intermediate advisory upped the MSW to 135 kts, but based on the 0000
  UTC reconnaissance report, an update was issued at 21/0035 UTC, raising
  the MSW to 140 kts, making Dean a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir/
  Simpson scale.

     Hurricane Dean made landfall on the east coast of the Yucatan
  Peninsula near the cruise ship port of Costa Maya around 0830 UTC.
  Observations from a USAF reconnaissance plane indicated that Dean was
  intensifying right up to the moment of landfall.  A peak FLW of 165 kts
  was measured just north of the eye.  The maximum SFMR wind was only
  124 kts, but it was considered highly likely that the maximum surface
  wind speed was not reported by the SFMR instrument.  A GPS dropsonde
  in the northern eyewall measured a wind speed of 178 kts averaged over
  the lowest 150 meters of the sounding.  Taking all of the wind data into
  consideration, the peak MSW at landfall was estimated to be 145 kts.
  The 906-mb CP reading was made by a dropsonde in the eye just prior to

     As noted above, Hurricane Dean represented the first Category 5
  hurricane landfall in the Atlantic basin since Hurricane Andrew slammed
  into southeastern Florida on 24 August 1992.    Dean was the first
  Category 5 hurricane to strike the Yucatan Peninsula since Hurricane
  Gilbert made landfall on 14 September 1988 with a CP of 900 mb and an
  estimated MSW of 140 kts.   

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

                            TROPICAL STORM ERIN
                              15 - 19 August

  A. Synoptic History

     The origins of Tropical Storm Erin seem to lie with the interaction
  between a tropical wave and an upper-level LOW which produced a large
  area of thunderstorm activity over the western Caribbean Sea and
  extending into the central Bahamas.  Unfavorable upper-level winds
  gradually lessened and by 13 August a broad area of low pressure
  had formed near the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula.  By the next day
  the system had entered the southern Gulf of Mexico and was showing
  increased organization.     The area was investigated during the
  afternoon by a reconnaissance flight, but at that point did not
  yet have a well-defined circulation center and so was not classified as
  a tropical depression.  However, during the evening convection began to
  increase in coverage so advisories were initiated on the season's 4th
  tropical depression at 15/0300 UTC with the center located about 370 nm
  east-southeast of Brownsville, Texas, moving northwestward at 8 kts with
  the MSW estimated at 25 kts.

     The depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Erin in a special
  advisory issued at 1530 UTC on the 15th, based on findings from a NOAA
  Hurricane Hunter plane.   At the time of its upgrade Erin was centered
  about 175 nm east of Brownsville.  Erin remained poorly-organized and
  did not strengthen beyond 35 kts while over the Gulf.  The center of
  circulation made landfall near Lamar, Texas, on the morning of 16 August,
  and by that time had weakened to a tropical depression with 30-kt winds.
  The depression continued northwestward and inland during 16-17 August
  and turned northward over western Texas on the 18th.

     The circulation remained remarkably intact over land, and entered
  southwestern Oklahoma very early on 19 August.  While moving north-
  eastward over Oklahoma that morning, the vortex underwent a most unusual
  and unexpected intensification, producing sustained winds well in excess
  of tropical storm intensity with gusts to hurricane force in isolated
  locations.  A post-analysis of this unusual event is ongoing to determine
  the strength and status of Erin while over Oklahoma.  The surface LLCC
  of Erin dissipated later on the 19th over northeastern Oklahoma, but
  remnant moisture continued northeastward into Missouri.  Overall, Erin
  and its remnants brought heavy rain to portions of Texas, Oklahoma and
  Missouri.  Storm-total rainfall amounts of 75-175 mm were common in
  many of these areas with some locations receiving more than 250 mm.

     The above synoptic history of Tropical Storm Erin was based largely
  upon the monthly summary prepared by the Hurricane Specialists at NHC.

     The Wikipedia report on Erin may be accessed at the following link:>

  B. Storm Impacts

     The information in this section has been taken from the Wikipedia
  report on Tropical Storm Erin.

  (1) Texas

     Erin was weakening to a tropical depression as it made landfall in
  Texas, so no strong winds were reported.  The highest was an unofficial
  report of a gust to 39 mph at Jamaica Beach.   The system led to a minor
  storm surge, peaking at 0.98 m at Pleasure Pier.  Heavy rains fell near
  and to the northeast of the path, reaching 280 mm at a station in
  Lockwood.  A total of eleven fatalities in Texas have been attributed
  to Erin.

  (2) Oklahoma

     The unexpected strengthening over Oklahoma led to widespread damage
  with several communities in central Oklahoma being flooded due to heavy
  rainfall.  Winds in Watonga gusted as high as 71 kts, damaging numerous
  trees and downing power lines and heavily damaging mobile homes.  Six
  deaths were attributed to Erin in Oklahoma with an additional fatality 
  in an automobile accident possibly being related to the storm.  

  (3) Missouri

     Although the surface circulation had dissipated before reaching
  Missouri, the circulation aloft remained intact and led to a burst of
  rainfall in Missouri early on 20 August.   The 303.3 mm that fell at
  Miller became the highest Missouri rainfall total associated with a
  tropical cyclone or its remnants since at least 1976.  One person in
  the state died when he drove into flood waters which had swept away a
  bridge he was attempting to cross.

     The HPC report on Tropical Storm Erin with the associated rainfall
  maps may be accessed at the following URL:>

  C. "Landphoon" Erin in Oklahoma

     The following discussion consists of three sections.  First is the
  description of a first-hand experience of Erin's re-intensification
  by storm chaser Rocky Rascovich.  Following this is an analysis of the
  meteorological aspects of this most unexpected event by Roger Edwards,
  a forecaster at NOAA's Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma.
  Finally, the third section looks at some political and meteorological
  issues precipitated by Erin's very unusual and unexpected strengthening
  several hundred miles inland three days after leaving the warm,
  nourishing waters of the Gulf of Mexico.  (A special thanks to Roger
  and Rocky for permission to use their comments here.)

  (1) Experiences of Rocky Rascovich

     �I think I may have witnessed one of the most unusual weather events 
  in recent times--right here at my farm in Piedmont, OK. 

     �The remnants of TS Erin (which if you remember was downgraded to 
  a depression last Wednesday morning just after it crossed the TX coast 
  near Corpus Christi, then spun itself through the hill country, 
  then on toward Childress yesterday, with the circulation still intact but
  with winds generally 25 mph or less), decided, quite magically through 
  the ever mysterious processes of our atmosphere, to rapidly increase 
  in strength starting last evening.  Several tornado reports came in from
  SW Oklahoma, then around midnight, the wind gradually started picking up
  here at the farm.  Probably around 10-20 mph from the east.  Lightning 
  was flickering frequently across the southern and western horizons.  We 
  had a few bands of rain come through earlier, starting in the mid-
  afternoon.  In fact I saw one storm come over downtown OK City that had 
  exhibited some nice banding and inflow cloud spikes in the mid levels at
  around 5pm.
     �Cutting to the "chase", the real action got underway around 1:30am 
  with considerable cloud-to-ground lightning (cg) activity near the house
  along with 15-30 mph winds that backed more from SE to E.  At around 3am,
  I was in bed and Dee alerted me that a TOR warning was issued for 
  Canadian County (my home county west of OKC).  At that time, winds still 
  weren't that bad but were increasing and cg activity was ramping up 

     �A short time later, maybe around 3:15am, I could hear the skylights 
  in my bathroom whistling and lots of commotion going on.   I got up, 
  naturally, and lo and behold, it was mayhem happening, winds sustained 
  at least 50 mph, gusts over 60 right out of the east, and a profuse 
  amount of rain wildly whipping by.  Lightning activity was still there 
  but was happening much less frequently. 

     �This continued unabated and actually increased as the minutes went 
  by.  Between 4 and 4:45am was the peak of the storm.  Winds were rarely 
  less than 40 mph, most of the time sustained at least around 50-55  mph,
  peak gusts I estimated were around 65 mph with 70 mph not out of the 
  question.  Wind direction for the most part was close to due east, maybe
  a little ENE at times.  Rain was coming down approximately 2-3" per hour.

     �Starting around 4:45am, winds suddenly abated to around 20 mph or so 
  but a couple of times, a period of a minute or two, winds would suddenly
  increase to around 40-45 mph out of the E/ESE.  Interestingly, the gusts 
  were not accompanied by any increase of rain, when the sudden wind 
  surges hit, the rain at that time was generally light. 

     �At 5am, our winds came down to less than 15 mph, the rain temporarily
  lessened to a drizzle, we were in the "eye" of this storm.  I was glued
  to KWTV Ch. 9 (other channels were not coming in), my satellite TV 
  was out and the internet went down, so I was only able to see the radar 
  through the TV.  I soon afterward went back to bed, awoke briefly around 
  6:30am to strong S or SW winds and rain again, and a fair amount of 
  lightning.  Conditions gradually improved after 7am. 

     �To me, this was a shock and awe moment, trying to figure out how this
  storm could actually strengthen, close to 72 hours after landfall, way
  up here in Oklahoma.   My guess is that it tapped into a theta-E rich 
  low-level jet that was juxtaposed perfectly to feed into the remnant 
  centre of the storm, thus giving it that boost.
     �Temps and dewpoints were already reminiscent of that of the tropics 
  to begin with, so it had that to feed off of, too.�

  (2) Analysis by Roger Edwards

     �This is just an educated guess at the moment based on my experience 
  with tropical and mid-latitude systems, and most of all, preliminary 
  examination of satellite, surface, upper air and radar data so far.  But 
  I have some thoughts on why this system acted the way it did on its 
  third night inland. 

     �First of all, Erin itself still was about as unquestionably warm 
  core as can be; the 500-mb analysis from 0000Z the previous evening 
  clearly shows a SSW-NNE thermal *ridge* of -2 to -4 C temps with an 
  axis directly atop the low to mid-level center at that time.  Temps 
  cooled away from Erin toward the E, N and W at 500 mb.  (The 1200Z 500-mb
  map is more poorly-sampled because the Norman sounding -- nearest the 
  center -- was convectively contaminated.)  It was drawing in some dry 
  air aloft from the W, as evident in moisture channel imagery.  No 
  significant low, middle or upper-level baroclinicity was evident except 
  for the usual, very mild variety generated by differential convective 
  latent heat release with any inland tropical system.  I have no qualms, 
  therefore, about calling it tropical over Oklahoma; and since it was a 
  closed cyclone with an eye that produced *sustained* TS-force winds for 
  several hours, that leaves no other equally justified option on 
  classification: it was, once again, Tropical Storm Erin. 

     �Though it was warm-core and still tropical, Erin was indirectly 
  �feeling� the influence of a baroclinic system located many hundreds of 
  miles to its NW.  Mid and upper troughing across the northwestern U.S., 
  and the resultant enhancement of gradient winds aloft across the central
  and northern Rockies, enabled lee-side surface troughing, as is very 

     �Associated low-level height/pressure falls quite often boost the 
  development of a low-level jet (LLJ) east of the lee trough, over the 
  southern and central Great Plains.  The other factor in LLJ development 
  and enhancement is vertical, nocturnal decoupling of the boundary layer 
  through diabatic surface cooling (more on this later), focusing the 
  core of strongest LLJ flow a km or two above the surface.  The LLJ can 
  and quite often does reach well south of the latitude of any baroclinic 
  zones, surface or aloft. 

     �In my opinion, as well as that of a few others with whom I've 
  conversed, the distant height/pressure falls and their influence on the 
  low-level winds helped to "channel" the flow through the eastern 
  semicircle of Erin, where the system's own gradient winds could enhance 
  (not partially negate, as on the W side) the LLJ effect. 

     �Why not the previous nights?  I believe Oklahoma's Erin finally had 
  reached a high enough latitude to experience such an indirect influence 
  (unlike the prior nights).  Yet Erin still was slow-moving, trapped 
  between the two upper HIGH cells over the southeast and southwest U.S., 
  and hadn't been "sheared apart" yet.  In other words, it was caught in 
  just the right regime of weak flow aloft, but lee-side enhancement in 
  low levels, to wind up as it did. 

     �And because the low levels were so moist (dew points in the 70s and 
  temperatures just a few degrees higher), with moisture transport from 
  the south (including the Gulf and heavily rained-on areas of TX) 
  continuing, nocturnal cooling couldn't proceed very far.  The boundary 
  layer stayed at least marginally unstable for an effective lifted parcel
  and also didn't *fully* decouple. 

     �These two factors allowed intense, surface based, sometimes severe, 
  thunderstorms to develop, and also allowed LLJ winds aloft to mix 
  consistently down to the surface in that favored channel spiraling 
  inward from the SE semicircle.  Also, as often is the case with nocturnal
  tropical MCSs, the vertical lapse rate probably improved in a subtle 
  manner through differential latent heat releases, and storm tops got 
  very high and cold (per IR imagery) -- colder even than Hurricane Dean 
  in the Caribbean at that particular time. 

     �The minimum MSLP I was able to *confidently* analyze was at 0730Z 
  when the center was along the Blaine/Dewey County line, just SW of 
  Watonga, Oklahoma: 1000 mb.  This was based on subjective analysis of 
  mesonet data; however it is possible that the pressure dipped to 999 mb 
  between stations.  Unfortunately, OK Mesonet meteorograms available 
  online display absolute sfc pressure, not PMSL.  I got PMSL conversion 
  of planar (mapped) OK mesonet obs through our display systems at SPC. 
  Oklahoma Jim may be able to get higher temporal resolution mesonet data 
  from Watonga with MSL reduction in order to more firmly establish minimum

     �Those cold cloud tops warmed considerably after 1000Z, convection 
  diminished in intensity, and the central pressure filled.  The eye lost 
  definition after 1200Z.  Convection and associated latent heat releases 
  waned.  The LLJ weakened, as it often does around dawn.  Those factors 
  don't deeply or fully explain why the storm weakened as quickly as it 
  had re-intensified earlier, but may offer hints in the right direction.
     �We've got so much left to learn about Erin and its wild ways!  I 
  don't envy Jack's having to translate anything resembling the above 
  for "public" consumption, because I don't believe a simple explanation 
  for this exists!� 

  (NOTE: Roger used the term 'meteorogram'.  According to Derrick Herndon,
  this term is synonymous with the more commonly-used 'meteogram'.)

  (3) Additional Discussion

     At the time of Erin's inland re-intensification, HPC was issuing
  advisories on the system, as is normal for the inland remnants of
  tropical cyclones which are still producing rains with the potential
  for flash flooding.  Some mild criticism was leveled at the agency for
  not re-upgrading Erin to tropical storm intensity on the morning of
  19 August.  David Roth of HPC addressed this.  Such action was considered
  during the night, but the current operational policy is for HPC to only 
  issue tropical depression advisories after NHC has downgraded a system 
  from tropical storm status.      Back in 2001, when ex-Tropical Storm 
  Allison began to re-intensify inland over Louisiana and Mississippi, NHC
  asked HPC to refer to the system as a "gale center" because they did not 
  want the tropical storm title used on an inland system.  Also, David 
  points out that only the field offices (WFOs) normally would issue inland
  tropical storm warnings.     NHC's charter is to provide warnings of
  expected tropical storm and hurricane conditions at the coast.

     At the moment, Erin's re-intensification to tropical storm strength
  so far inland seems unique in the annals of Atlantic tropical cyclone
  history.  There have been a few tropical systems in recent years which
  have re-intensified to gale force while the centers were over land, but
  in all cases they were near the ocean.  One case was the above-mentioned
  Allison of 2001.  After drenching Houston, Allison, as a tropical
  depression, moved eastward off the Louisiana coast, turning to the
  east-northeast, moving inland over southeastern Louisiana, and undergoing
  a modest re-intensification to gale force.  As noted earlier, at the
  time warnings handled Allison as a "gale center", but in post-analysis
  the system was re-analyzed as a subtropical storm.

     Danny of 1997, Helene of 2000, and Gaston of 2004 were all tropical
  cyclones which had made landfall in the U. S. (Danny and Helene along
  the Gulf Coast, and Gaston in South Carolina) and as depressions were
  moving northeastward across North Carolina toward the Chesapeake Bay
  area.  As all three approached the Atlantic they re-intensified to
  tropical storm strength before the center reached the coastline, and
  the Best Tracks file now shows each as having intensified back to
  tropical storm status while still inland.

     In 1970 Tropical Storm Felice made landfall in eastern Texas, thence
  recurving northward into Oklahoma.  A study done many years ago indicated
  that ex-Felice underwent some redevelopment over Oklahoma with a radar
  eye being present, but there is no evidence that winds to gale force
  occurred.   Also, it appears that Felice was in close proximity to a
  baroclinic zone as it passed over Oklahoma, which was not the case with
  Erin, so that situation may not be analogous to Erin.

     How will Erin's re-intensification over Oklahoma be handled by NHC in
  the Best Track database?  The answer to that very interesting question
  remains to be seen, so to borrow an expression a friend of mine in Puerto
  Rico always uses to close his e-mails or postings�STAY TUNED.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett, with contributions by Roger Edwards,
  Rocky Rascovich and David Roth)

                 A Candidate for an Unnamed Tropical Storm?
                               (Invest 96L)
                         30 August - 1 September

     A system with some affinities to the officially-added unnamed tropical
  storm of July, 2006, formed off the mid-Atlantic coast in late August.
  An e-mail was posted to a discussion group very early on 1 September by 
  Zach Gruskin, an intern at HRD, which follows (very slightly edited):

  A. Comments by Zach Gruskin

     An interesting low-pressure system paralleled the eastern seaboard of
  the United States over the past 2 days, and was particularly interesting
  over the past day.     This LOW maintained a well-defined surface 
  circulation with organized convection from part of Thursday (30 Aug) and
  into part of Friday (31 Aug), as can be seen in these 2 visible 
  satellite images:>>

     I couldn't find a QUIKSCAT pass during the peak of the system, 
  unfortunately, but a pass as the system was losing convection revealed
  winds of 40 kts in the NE quadrant.  I would suspect winds were higher 
  during the peak organization of the system, and solidly minimal/moderate
  tropical storm force.    Below are the QUIKSCAT pass and a visible 
  satellite image of the system decaying into a tight swirl:>>

     Also of note, 96L passed near Buoy 44004 while it was a tight swirl 
  (well after the storm's peak), and a wind surge of up to 22 kts with a 
  pressure drop down to 1007 mb was observed:>

     As for the thermodynamic structure of the system, here are some AMSU 
  and FSU phase analysis charts.  It looks warm core to me:


  FSU phase analysis:>>

     Overall, a fairly intriguing system, one that should be considered for
  an upgrade to a tropical storm after the season.  It reminds me a lot of
  the unnamed tropical storm last year:>

  B. Comments by Chris Fogarty

     However, Chris Fogarty of the Canadian Hurricane Centre was not quite
  so enthusiastic about the system's chances of being included as an
  after-the-fact tropical storm.  Some comments from Chris follow:

     I worked our forecast desk for this storm as support meteorologist.  
  My conclusion about this storm system--and I think NHC would concur--is 
  that although there were gale-force winds, the cloud/convective mass 
  never did get co-located with the low-level circulation center.  The CDO
  never quite became co-located with the center at the surface.   Shear 
  eventually stripped the convection from the vicinity of the LOW center 
  and moved NE to give what was a good shot of rain to Nova Scotia (2-5").
  I do not at this time see this as a candidate for post-season addition.

  C. Further Discussion

     Dr. Fogarty prepared a brief report on the system, which brought heavy
  rainfalls of 50-130 mm to Nova Scotia.  Actually, two surface LOW centers
  developed, with the northern one becoming frontal and helping to bring
  the heavy rains to Nova Scotia.  Some flooding and road washouts occurred
  in the Cape Breton area.

     Following are tracks for the two LOWs prepared by Chris:

  (1) Initial LLCC (identified as Invest 96L)

  Date     Time     Lat (N)  Lon (W)   CP (mb)
  30 Aug   1800Z     36.0     70.0	1010
  31 Aug   0000Z     37.0     70.5	1009
  31 Aug   0600Z     38.0     71.0	1009
  31 Aug   1200Z     38.2     70.3	1004
  31 Aug   1800Z     38.0     70.0	1006
  01 Sep   0000Z     38.8     68.2	1006
  01 Sep   0600Z     39.0     66.8	1008

  (2) Northern LLCC which brought heavy rain to Nova Scotia

  Date     Time     Lat (N)  Lon (W)   CP (mb)
  31 Aug   1800Z     40.8     66.9	1010
  01 Sep   0000Z     41.9     65.0	1008
  01 Sep   0600Z     43.5     63.0	1006
  01 Sep   1200Z     46.3     59.5	1001
  01 Sep   1800Z     48.2     56.0	 999
  02 Sep   0000Z     48.7     53.1	 999
  Absorbed into front

  A special thanks to Zach and Chris for the information they supplied and
  for permission to include it in this report.

  NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180

  Activity for August:  2 tropical storms
                        1 hurricane
                        1 intense hurricane

                           Sources of Information

     Most of the information presented below was obtained from the
  various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction
  Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida (or the
  Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, Hawaii, for
  locations west of longitude 140W):  discussions, public advisories,
  forecast/advisories, tropical weather outlooks, special tropical
  disturbance statements, etc.  Some additional information may have
  been gleaned from the monthly summaries prepared by the hurricane
  specialists and available on TPC/NHC's website.  All references to
  sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise

               Northeast Pacific Tropical Activity for August

     In terms of the number of storms, August tropical cyclone activity
  was very close to normal.  Over the 1971-2006 period of record, the
  averages for August are 4.1 NS, 2.4 H, and 1.1 IH.  August of 2007
  produced 4 NS, 2 H, and 1 IH--about as close to average as one can get.  
  Erick and Gil were short-lived minimal tropical storms southwest of the 
  Baja at the beginning and ending of the month, respectively.  Hurricane
  Flossie, the only major hurricane of the 2007 season, formed fairly
  far to the west of the primary genesis region for Eastern North Pacific
  cyclones.   Once it had formed, Flossie intensified rather rapidly into
  a Category 4 hurricane around the time it crossed 140W into the Central
  North Pacific.  The storm posed a significant threat to Hawaii as it
  trekked in the direction of the Aloha State for several days while
  maintaining itself as an intense hurricane.  However, as Flossie began
  to draw near the Big Island, vertical shear increased significantly,
  leading to a very rapid weakening.  At the close of the month, Tropical
  Storm Henriette formed rather close to the Mexican coast and brought
  heavy rainfall to coastal regions as it moved slowly west-northwestward
  parallel to the coastline.  Henriette turned to the north and reached
  hurricane intensity shortly before moving onshore on the tip of the Baja
  California Peninsula just east of Cabo San Lucas.  The storm continued
  northward, moving back into the Gulf of California, and maintained
  hurricane intensity until it made a second landfall on the Mexican
  mainland.   Short reports on all four named storms follow.

  NOTE: The official TPC/NHC storm reports are already available online
  for Tropical Storms Erick and Gil, and for all earlier cyclones this
  season.  Links to the individual reports may be found at the following 

                           TROPICAL STORM ERICK
                            31 July - 2 August

     Short-lived Tropical Storm Erick formed from a tropical wave which
  entered the Eastern North Pacific on 23 July.  The wave gradually
  became better organized, forming a broad surface LOW by the 28th.
  Convective activity gradually consolidated and by late on 31 July the
  system had attained sufficient organization that advisories were
  initiated on Tropical Depression 08E at 2100 UTC, locating the center
  approximately 960 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas.  Six hours later the
  depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Erick with 35-kt winds.  This
  proved to be Erick's peak intensity as the cyclone never intensified
  beyond minimal tropical storm strength.   Persistent vertical shear
  led to weakening and Erick was downgraded back to depression status
  at 1500 UTC on 2 August.  Later on the 2nd the remnants of Erick had
  degenerated into a tropical wave about 1200 nm west-southwest of the
  southern tip of Baja California.

     No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Tropical
  Stork Erick.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

                             HURRICANE FLOSSIE
                               8 - 16 August

  A. Synoptic History

     The Northeast Pacific's only major hurricane of the 2007 season had
  its beginnings with an area of disturbed weather first noted about
  525 nm south-southeast of Acapulco in early August.  While environmental
  conditions were basically favorable for development, interaction with
  the ITCZ on 3 August hindered the process somewhat.    Convective
  organization fluctuated for several days, but by 8 August the system
  had gained enough structure for advisories to be initiated on Tropical
  Depression 09E, located at 08/1800 UTC about 1100 nm west-southwest of
  the southern tip of Baja California while moving westward.  TD-09E was
  upgraded to Tropical Storm Flossie on the second advisory at 09/0000
  UTC.  Under favorable conditions of low vertical shear and warm SSTs,
  the cyclone continued to strengthen and was upgraded to a hurricane at
  1200 UTC on 10 August while located approximately 1200 nm east-southeast
  of the Hawaiian Islands.   After reaching hurricane intensity, Flossie
  intensified rather rapidly and within 24 hours had become a 115-kt
  Category 4 hurricane shortly before crossing 140W into the CPHC's area
  of warning responsibility.

     Flossie was a very impressive hurricane with a distinct eye embedded
  within a solid eyewall and sporting a very impressive upper-level outflow
  pattern as it entered the CPHC region.   The hurricane maintained a MSW
  of 115-120 kts for the next two days as it moved west-northwestward
  toward the Hawaiian Islands.  Flossie was a relatively small cyclone
  with sustained winds of tropical storm force or greater extending out
  only about 85 nm from the center in the northern semicircle during this
  period.  The storm was being steered toward the west-northwest at around
  10 kts by a strong subtropical ridge as it approached the islands.  A
  Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning were issued for the Big Island
  on the morning of 13 August due to the forecast close approach of the
  storm to the island, plus the intensity forecast which maintained Flossie
  as a hurricane when it was projected to arrive in the vicinity of the
  southern end of the island.  However, as Flossie approached the Big
  Island a long-anticipated increase in vertical shear began to take its
  toll on the storm on the 14th, and the hurricane weakened to a tropical
  storm that evening after passing a little more than 85 nm to the south
  of the southern tip of the Big Island.   Very strong vertical shear led
  to Flossie weakening to a tropical depression late on the 15th as it was
  passing far to the south of the islands of Oahu and Kauai.  The final
  CPHC advisory was issued at 16/1500 UTC, placing a weak 25-kt center
  about 350 nm southwest of Honolulu.
  B. Impacts

     Even though the center of Flossie passed about 85 nm due south of
  South Point on the Big Island of Hawaii, it generated very large waves
  along the southeast-facing shoreline of that island.  Surf heights were
  estimated to be nearly 6.1 m.  Coincident with the passage of Flossie,
  a 44-acre lava bench slipped into the ocean during the night of
  13 August.  It is possible this loss of shoreline was due to the large
  surf from Flossie, or a 5.4 magnitude earthquake that occurred around
  the same time.   Rainfall amounts were not excessive, however, sustained
  winds of at least 34 kts were reported at South Point as Flossie passed

     No significant damage or injuries were reported in association with
  Hurricane Flossie.

     The Wikipedia online report on Flossie may be found at the following

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

                             TROPICAL STORM GIL
                          29 August - 2 September

     Tropical Storm Gil originated from a tropical wave that had entered
  the Eastern North Pacific on 23 August.     An area of low pressure
  developed along the wave axis south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the
  25th.  The LOW moved slowly west-northwestward over the next several
  days with convective activity gradually increasing in organization.  By
  the morning of 29 August the system had become well-organized enough
  to warrant classification as Tropical Depression 10E with the initial
  advisory being issued at 1200 UTC, locating the center about 220 nm
  south of Cabo San Lucas.  Despite moderate easterly shear, TD-10E
  strengthened and was upgraded to Tropical Storm Gil just six hours
  later.  Strong high pressure anchored over the southwestern U. S.
  steered Gil on a general westerly track for the next several days.

     An environment of stable air and easterly shear hampered significant
  intensification and Gil reached a peak intensity of 40 kts at 1800 UTC
  on 30 August while centered about 330 nm southwest of the southern tip
  of the Baja California Peninsula.  After peaking on the 30th Gil began
  to slowly weaken and was downgraded to a tropical depression at 0000 UTC
  on 1 September while located about 575 nm west-southwest of Cabo San
  Lucas.  Tropical Depression Gil degenerated into a remnant LOW over
  cooler waters on 2 September about 800 nm west-southwest of southern
  Baja California and the final advisory was issued at 02/1500 UTC.

     The Wikipedia report mentions a fatality which occurred on 29 August
  near Culiacan in Sinaloa State.  A 14-year old boy was swept away by
  a flood-swollen river.  The heavy rainfall which led to the flooding
  could have possibly been associated with the early stages of Gil, but
  this location is several hundred miles to the northeast of the location
  where TD-10E was organizing at about that time.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

                            HURRICANE HENRIETTE
                          30 August - 6 September

  A. Synoptic History

     Hurricane Henriette's origins lay with a tropical wave which moved
  off the Central American coastline on 28 August and produced disorganized
  showers and thunderstorms for the next day or so.  By late on 29 August
  a small area of low pressure had developed about 300 nm south-southeast
  of Acapulco.  Convective activity surrounding the LOW gradually improved
  in organization and at 1800 UTC on 30 August the system was designated
  as Tropical Depression 11E, located approximately 220 nm southeast of
  Acapulco.  TD-11E commenced tracking west-northwestward in response to
  a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico.
  The system's organization continued to improve as it moved parallel to
  the southern Mexican coast, and it was upgraded to Tropical Storm
  Henriette at 31/1200 UTC while centered only about 75 nm south of
  Acapulco.  As August turned into September, Tropical Storm Henriette
  was slowly strengthening just off the Mexican coast and bringing
  rainfall and tropical storm force winds to portions of the coastline.

     Henriette remained just shy of hurricane strength for the next two
  days as it moved slowly northwestward away from the coast.  The storm
  was consistently being forecast to soon reach hurricane intensity, but
  probably its close proximity to land and perhaps some upwelling of
  cooler waters brought about by the slow movement were inhibiting factors.
  Finally, early on 4 September Henriette reached hurricane intensity as
  it turned north-northwestward toward the Baja California Peninsula.
  The cyclone reached its peak intensity of 75 kts around 04/1800 UTC while
  centered about 75 nm south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas.   Weakening
  slightly, the center of Henriette made landfall that afternoon just east
  of Cabo San Lucas with the MSW estimated at 70 kts.  Continuing north-
  northwestward, the storm emerged over the Gulf of California early on
  5 September.  The brief interaction with the Peninsula resulted in
  slight weakening, but Henriette remained at hurricane intensity until
  its final landfall very late on the 5th near Guaymas on the Mexican
  mainland.  Once inland Henriette weakened quickly over land and had
  dissipated over the mountains of northwestern Mexico by the morning
  of 6 September.

  B. Impacts

     Media reports indicate that at least nine persons lost their lives
  in Mexico due to Hurricane Henriette.  Six of these occurred near
  Acapulco due to mud slides induced by heavy rains while the center of
  Henriette passed just offshore.  Two fishermen were reported killed
  off the coast of Sonara.  According to the Wikipedia report, damage in
  Mexico totaled about $25 million U. S. dollars.

     The Wikipedia online report on Henriette may be accessed at the
  following link:>

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)


  NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180

  Activity for August:  7 tropical depressions **
                        2 tropical storms ++
                        3 typhoons ##
                        1 super typhoon
  ** - classified as tropical depressions by JMA only

  ++ - one of these classified as a tropical storm by JTWC only

  ## - one of these formed in July and continued operating into August

                         Sources of Information

     Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
  cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
  by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
  Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.   In the companion
  tropical cyclone tracks file, I normally annotate track coordinates
  from some of the various Asian warning centers when their center
  positions differ from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more.   All
  references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period
  unless otherwise noted.

     Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the
  Typhoon 2000 website, normally sends me cyclone tracks based upon
  warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the
  Philippines' Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services
  Administration (PAGASA).  A very special thanks to Michael for the
  assistance he so reliably provides.
      In the title line for each storm I have referenced all the cyclone
  names/numbers I have available:   JTWC's depression number, the 
  JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator,
  and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their
  area of warning responsibility.

              Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for August

     The month of August was quite active in the Northwest Pacific basin.
  Five tropical storms formed with three reaching typhoon intensity.  (One
  of these was not named by JMA.)  In addition, as the month began Typhoon
  Usagi was prowling Western Pacific waters en route to a landfall in
  Japan.  The report on Usagi may be found in the July summary; however,
  a couple of corrections to that report are given below.

     Tropical Storm 06W was a fairly weak South China Sea tropical storm
  which nonetheless was responsible for 60 or more deaths in Vietnam due
  to flooding.  JMA did not classify this system as a tropical storm, and
  JTWC had it as a minimal tropical storm for only 12 hours, but QuikScat
  data suggests that the cyclone may have been a little stronger than
  reported by the warning agencies.  Typhoon Pabuk sailed westward,
  clipping the southern tip of Taiwan and brushing the southern Chinese
  coastline early in the month, while at around the same time Tropical
  Storm Wutip formed east of the Philippines and moved toward Taiwan.
  The second week of August gave rise to mighty Super Typhoon Sepat which
  ultimately made destructive strikes in Taiwan and in mainland China.
  Late in the month, a reverse-oriented monsoon trough gave rise to Typhoon
  Fitow, which continued operating into the second week of September and
  made a significant strike on Honshu.   Reports on all four named storms
  plus the unnamed tropical storm follow.

     In addition to the tropical storms and typhoons, no less than seven
  systems were referenced as tropical depressions by JMA in their High Seas
  bulletins.  Brief synopses of these systems follow:

  (1) TD of 10-12 August - The JMA High Seas Bulletin at 09/0600 UTC
      referenced a weak tropical depression (1002 hPa) near 22N/126E,
      moving west slowly, but the bulletins for the next two cycles
      did not reference a tropical depression, nor even a low-pressure
      area, in this vicinity.  At 10/0000 UTC, a weak tropical depression
      was placed near 25N/123E, moving slowly north.  JTWC mentioned the
      system in an interim STWO issued at 10/0100 UTC, locating an area
      of convection about 65 nm southwest of Naha, Okinawa.  QuikScat
      data revealed a tight area of turning within the monsoon trough.
      The depression commenced moving northward at an accelerating pace.
      JTWC issued a TCFA at 10/2130 UTC for a LLCC located about 265 nm
      west-northwest of Naha.  Convection was concentrated in an area
      of low-level convergence to the east of the tightest turning.
      The small LLCC was located within a broader gyre-type circulation
      with the strongest winds on the periphery of the larger circulation.

      Early on the 11th the LLCC became more disorganized, and by 11/1300
      UTC the LLCC, then located about 310 nm west of Sasebo, Japan, had
      become fully-exposed west of a band of patchy convection.  The system
      was encountering a mid-latitude trough moving out of northeastern
      China which was inducing increasing vertical shear and causing the
      depression to accelerate northward.  JTWC cancelled the TCFA at
      11/1130 UTC, and JMA classified the system as extratropical at 
      12/0600 UTC in the Yellow Sea just west of Korea with the LOW 
      subsequently continuing northward, moving into northeastern China.  
      JMA estimated the peak MSW for this system at 30 kts.  A track for 
      this tropical depression is included in the companion cyclone tracks 

  (2) Weak TD of 11-12 August - The beginnings of this system can be traced
      to an area of convection which persisted on 9 August approximately
      740 nm east-northeast of Guam.  Satellite imagery depicted a
      developing LLCC with convection flaring on the periphery.  The
      disturbance over the next couple of days migrated west-northwestward
      and by the 11th was located about 125 nm east of Iwo Jima.  A fully-
      closed LLCC had developed but convection was still not persisting
      near the center; hence, JTWC's development potential remained 'poor'.
      JMA first referenced the system as a weak tropical depression at
      11/0000 UTC near 24N/143E.  The system drifted slowly west-
      northwestward on the 11th, but moved quickly (based on JMA's
      bulletins) late on the 11th to near 27N/138E where it became quasi-
      stationary.  At 12/1200 UTC the depression was downgraded to a
      low-pressure area.

  (3) TD of 14-15 August - JMA tracked this system from near 26.2N/123.6E
      (northeast of Taiwan) at 14/0000 UTC northward to near 38N/125E (in
      the Yellow Sea just west of Korea) by 15/1200 UTC.  No reference was
      made to this disturbance in JTWC's STWOs, and given the latitude of
      formation, it is highly likely that it was a non-tropical or hybrid
      system.  JMA estimated peak winds of 30 kts for this system.  A track
      for this tropical depression is included in the companion tropical
      cyclone tracks file.

  (4) Weak TD of 14-18 August - This system, treated as a weak tropical
      depression by JMA, was first referenced at 14/1800 UTC when it was
      located at 23N/115E, or on the south Chinese coast very near Hong
      Kong.  Based on JMA's positions, the system meandered very slowly
      for several days over the northern South China Sea between Hong
      Kong and Hainan Dao, being last mentioned at 18/0600 UTC near

      NOTE: I do not have available any STWOs issued by JTWC during this
      period.  Normally, I receive the outlooks via e-mail and store any
      which contain a reference to any areas of disturbed weather.  But
      occasionally, due to some glitch in the system, the STWOs do not
      arrive via e-mail, and I often forget to visit JTWC's website and
      download them.  However, I suspect that in this case, since the
      system was so near the coast it was not considered a suspect area
      for development by JTWC.

  (5) TD of 21-25 August - This system was first referenced by JMA at
      21/0000 UTC near 22N/136E, or well west of the northern Marianas.
      The depression drifted slowly west-northwestward to near 25N/134E
      at 22/0600 UTC.  It then drifted very slowly west-southwestward for
      the next two days to near 23N/127E by 24/0600 UTC.  The next bulletin
      at 24/1200 UTC relocated the center to 20N/128E (or else picked up
      on a new LLCC).  The final reference by JMA to this depression down-
      graded it to a low-pressure area near 22N/127E at 25/0000 UTC.

      JTWC first mentioned this system in an interim SWTO issued at 0000
      UTC on 21 August.  Convection was flaring over the northeastern
      quadrant of a developing LLCC.  The environment was fairly favorable
      for strengthening, so the development potential was assessed as
      'fair'.  A TCFA was issued at 22/0230 UTC as the system continued
      to exhibit improved convective organization.  However, as the 22nd
      wore on, a mid-latitude trough deepened over the Sea of Japan,
      increasing the vertical shear over the disturbance.  By 2100 UTC the
      LLCC, located about 220 nm east-southeast of Naha, had become fully-
      exposed.  JTWC cancelled the TCFA and downgraded the potential for
      development to 'poor'.    Also, a TUTT cell over Okinawa was 
      contributing to convergence over the system, helping to suppress

      JMA estimated the peak MSW for this depression at 30 kts.  A track
      for this system is included in the companion tropical cyclone tracks

  (6) Weak TD of 24 August - This weak system was mentioned only once in
      JMA's bulletins, at 24/0600 UTC, when it was located near 21N/131E.
      JTWC's STWO issued at the same hour mentioned the disturbance, which
      was located about 385 nm south-southeast of Okinawa.  A LLCC appeared
      to be developing with an increase in convection near the center.
      However, by 25/0600 UTC the convection had dissipated and the system
      was dropped from the STWOs.

  (7) Weak TD of 31 August-01 September - JMA's final tropical depression
      for August was a weak, short-lived system that was likely a hybrid
      LOW.  The first reference was at 31/1800 UTC near 33N/172E, or
      several hundred miles west-northwest of Midway.  The depression was
      moving west-northwestward at 15 kts, and at 0000 UTC on 1 September
      had moved to near 34N/171W.  However, this was the final reference
      to the system in JMA's bulletins.   This system was not mentioned
      in any of JTWC's STWOs and was likely not tropical in character.


     In the report for Typhoon Usagi in the July summary, in Section B
  (Observations), a couple of corrections need to be made based upon 
  revised information received from Derrick Herndon.  A wind observation
  from Nyutubaru AFB of 030@35G72 kts was listed for 0500 UTC.  The time
  actually was 0449 UTC.  And the elevation for the Seto station is
  134 meters instead of 143 meters as originally given.

                             TROPICAL STORM
                              2 - 7 August

  A. Synoptic History

     At 0400 UTC 2 August JTWC issued a TCFA on a disturbance located 
  approximately 185 nm east of Nha Tang, Vietnam.   Multi-spectral imagery
  indicated a consolidating system with deep convection developing over a 
  well-defined but partially-exposed LLCC.  Upper-level analysis revealed 
  a weak to moderate wind shear environment with a broad upper-level trough
  above the disturbance.  The first warning on Tropical Depression 06W was
  issued at 02/1800 UTC, locating the centre about 140 nm southeast of Hue,

     Embedded in a slack steering flow, Tropical Depression 06W drifted 
  slowly and erratically on 3 August while continuing to exhibit an exposed
  LLCC.  It was upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm at 0000 UTC 4 August 
  when a strong convective burst occurred southwest of the centre. 
  However, the system soon became virtually devoid of convection and was 
  downgraded back to tropical depression status at 04/1200 UTC.  The
  easterly shear kept up, preventing the system from regaining tropical 
  storm intensity.     Tracking westwards, TD-06W reached the coast of 
  Vietnam, then abruptly turned north on 5 August.  The dying storm then 
  headed northwestward early on 6 August and into the Gulf of Tonkin before
  dissipating over Vietnam the next day.  JTWC issued the final warning at 
  07/0600 UTC.  JMA classified this system as a 30-kt tropical depression 
  beginning at 02/0600 UTC, but never upgraded to tropical storm intensity;
  hence, the system was not named.  (TD-06W formed and remained west of 
  PAGASA's AOR, so no name was assigned by that agency.)  JMA carried the 
  system as a tropical depression inland into Vietnam, last referencing the
  LOW at 07/1800 UTC.

  B. Meteorological Observations

     The author received some information from Derrick Herndon at CIMSS
  concerning ship and QuikScat observations made in association with
  Tropical Storm 06W.  Following are Derrick's comments, slightly edited:

     "I found a ship observation from ship DCCN2 at 11.2N/110.5E at 03/0600
  UTC which reported winds of 270/52 kts and a pressure of 1002 mb.  I
  initially questioned this wind; however, QuikScat indicated winds of
  40-50 kts on the southwest side of the circulation.  An upgraded version
  of the QuikScat algorithm was received from Paul Chang which showed that
  many of these wind vectors were not rain-flagged.  I do not know the
  height of the anemometer for this ship, but it would appear that the
  observation may have been valid, suggesting winds around 45 kts.  AMSU
  intensity estimates from both our algorithms and CIRA's algorithm, along
  with the AODT, all indicated a MSLP of 995-998 mb, in agreement with the
  surrounding ship observations.  Pressures in southern Vietnam at this
  time were 1008-1009 mb, and if the MSLP was indeed 996 mb, then a decent
  gradient would have existed just off the Vietnamese coast.  The lowest
  pressure I could find at landfall was from station 59981 which reported
  999 mb on the 3rd."

     And later information from Derrick:

     "Several ships reported observations near TS-06W.  Ship MGRH9 reported
  1007.6 mb with winds 270/37 kts 70 nm SW of the center at 02/1200 UTC.
  The ship was located in the active convective region and QuikScat data
  supports the winds.  Ship DCCN2 reported a pressure of 1002 mb with winds
  270/52 kts at 03/0600 UTC 150 nm SW of the center.  (This observation
  described in above paragraph.)  This report now appears to have been
  outside the strongest winds and thus the wind is suspect (perhaps 
  26 kts).  Again, QuikScat supported winds of 40-45 kts on the 3rd.  The
  surrounding observations suggest that the lowest MSLP was about 995 mb
  around 1200-1800 UTC on the 3rd.  There were no significant observations
  from the landfall in Vietnam, which occurred after the system had
  significantly weakened."

     A very special thanks to Derrick for the observations and analysis.
  From this information, it appears that Tropical Storm 06W was stronger
  and at tropical storm intensity for a longer period than reported in
  JTWC's warnings.

  C. Damage and Casualties

     News sources indicate that 60-70 people died in Vietnam as a 
  result of the extensive flooding caused by Tropical Storm 06W.  The
  Wikipedia report states that some portions of Vietnam received over
  24 inches (610 mm) of rainfall for a storm total in association with
  TC-06W, and that Hainan Dao received a total of 231.6 mm.

  (Section A written by Kevin Boyle; Sections B and C added by Gary Padgett
  with much information supplied by Derrick Herndon)  

                             TYPHOON PABUK
                      (TC-07W / TY 0706 / CHEDENG)
                             4 - 14 August

  Pabuk:  contributed by Laos, is the name of a large freshwater fish
          that lives in the Mekong River

  A. Synoptic History

     The origins of Typhoon Pabuk can be traced back to a disturbance 
  located approximately 440 nm northwest of Guam.  It was first alluded 
  to in JTWC's STWO at 0800 UTC 4 August when multi-spectral satellite 
  imagery revealed flaring convection near a developing LLCC.  Upper- 
  level analysis indicated low vertical shear and moderate divergence 
  aloft.  The system drifted west-northwestwards and quickly organized.  
  A TCFA was issued at 05/0300 UTC after an extensive CDO had formed over 
  the centre.  The disturbance was upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm on 
  the first warning issued by JTWC at 05/0600 UTC.  At the same time JMA 
  raised their 10-min avg MSW to 35 kts and assigned the name Pabuk.  
  (JMA had first identified Pabuk as a tropical depression at 04/1800 
  UTC).  Pabuk was known locally in the Philippines by the name Chedeng.

     Pabuk moved smartly across the Northwest Pacific on a predominantly 
  westerly trajectory, a straight-runner, and remained south of the 
  subtropical ridge axis.  For most of its life, the tropical cyclone was 
  located on the northern side of a monsoon depression which was to later 
  spawn Tropical Storm Wutip.  Tropical Storm Pabuk gradually 
  strengthened on 5-6 August, and was upgraded to a minimal typhoon at 
  0000 UTC 7 August, located approximately 285 nm southeast of Taipei, 
  Taiwan.  This was to be its maximum intensity.  The storm was briefly 
  downgraded to a 60-kt tropical storm at 07/1200 UTC, but was upgraded 
  back to typhoon intensity at 07/1800 UTC based on the appearance of a 
  small eye as depicted in Taiwan radar imagery. 

     After passing over the southern tip of Taiwan, Pabuk was downgraded 
  back down to a tropical storm at 08/0000 UTC.  Once across the Taiwan 
  Strait, Pabuk flirted with the southern Chinese coast and passed just 
  south of Hong Kong late on 8 August.  The system began to track more 
  slowly southwestwards, and was lowered to tropical depression status at 
  09/0600 UTC on what was initially JTWC�s final warning.  It was felt 
  that Pabuk was dissipating over land at this time.  When infrared 
  imagery revealed that the centre had not moved inland, but in fact had 
  remained offshore and moved parallel to the Chinese coast, JTWC re-
  issued a penultimate warning at 09/1200 UTC and relocated Pabuk further 
  to the south to a position 140 nm southwest of Hong Kong.  The final 
  warning was issued at 09/1800 UTC.

     The remnants of Pabuk drifted erratically over the next two days.  
  The system drifted slowly northwestward, passing very near Hong Kong 
  before meandering inland near Zhongshan, Guangdong Province, on 10 
  August.  Abruptly turning northeastward, the 30-kt LOW crossed the 
  Pearl River Estuary, passing north of Hong Kong on 11 August.  The 
  system accelerated east-northeastward over China before turning to the 
  northeast on 12 August, emerging into the East China Sea later that 
  same day.  Pabuk�s remnants entered the Yellow Sea early on 14 August 
  and were last noted in JMA�s high seas bulletin at 0600 UTC on 14 
  August heading in a more northerly direction towards North Korea.

  B. Observations

     Following are some observations sent to the author by Derrick Herndon.
  Again, a very special thanks to Derrick for sending the information.

     "On the 7th Pabuk passed just south of Lan-yu located just east of the
  southern tip of Taiwan.  The station recorded a pressure of 979 mb at
  1300 UTC while apparently in the northern eyewall, according to both
  radar and microwave imagery.  At 1600 UTC the station reported winds of
  Force 8, gusting to Force 17, which equates to 37 kts gusting to 113 kts.
  The station on the island is highly elevated at 325 meters.  After
  passing Lan-yu, the eye became quite small as the system intensified. 
  The very small eye (perhaps 7.5 nm) passed over southern Taiwan just
  north of Henchun.  Henchun reported 979 mb at 1700 UTC with west winds
  of 41 kts (10-min avg) gusting to 57 kts.  It appears that Henchun was
  in the southern eyewall based on radar; however, the winds seem weak
  even accounting for the station being on the weak side of the circu-
  lation.  The storm was moving at 15-20 kts, so that may account for some
  of that discrepancy.  The observation from Henchun suggests a MSLP of
  964-970 mb.  Taitung was located 44 nm north of the center and reported
  999 mb at 1700 UTC.  Using the 965 mb MSLP results in a gradient of
  34 mb over 44 nm, from which I calculated a gradient wind of about 
  92 kts.   The environmental pressure was about 1002 mb, so that 92-kt
  MSW matches well with what would be expected for 965 mb.  Since the
  storm was moving at 15-20 kts and the RMW was quite small, I would
  expect a slight upward deviation from the 92 kts to perhaps 100 kts.
  This is a best guess based on the available data.

     "After passing Taiwan Pabuk weakened significantly on the 8th.  Ship
  MLXD5, located 60 nm southeast of the center, reported 993.5 mb and
  winds 260/37 kts at 08/1200 UTC.  Buoy 22516 reported a MSLP of 998.1 mb
  120 nm northeast of the center at 08/0300 UTC, and had earlier reported
  a MSLP of 1000 mb while located about 60 nm south of the center at
  06/1200 UTC."

  C. Links and Comments

     A report on Typhoon Pabuk written by the Hong Kong Observatory can be 
  found at:>

  D. Damage and Casualties

     Pabuk brought much needed rain to southern parts of China, alleviating
  the long drought that the region had been suffering from for many months.
  However, flooding destroyed around 3,000 homes in Guangdong Province.
  The storm also affected the cities of Zhanjiang, Maorning and Meizhou, 
  causing $170 million in economic losses and destroying more than 3,500 
  homes.  One person was killed in Hong Kong.

     Taiwan reported no casualties as a result of Typhoon Pabuk.  The 
  storm disrupted power supplies to 3,000 households, otherwise, damage 
  was minimal.

     Monsoonal rains enhanced by Pabuk caused flooding in the Philippines,
  triggering landslides which killed 11 person.

  (Sections A, C and D written by Kevin Boyle; Section B added by Gary
  Padgett based on information supplied by Derrick Herndon)

                          TROPICAL STORM WUTIP
                      (TC-08W / TS 0707 / DODONG)
                              6 - 9 August

  Wutip: contributed by Macau, is the Macanese word for butterfly

  A. Synoptic History

     The tropical disturbance that spawned Wutip developed on the southern
  flank of a monsoon depression which also included Typhoon Pabuk on its 
  northern periphery.  It was first mentioned in JTWC's STWO at 2230 UTC 
  6 August when infrared satellite imagery indicated persistent deep 
  convection near a developing LLCC approximately 450 nm east of Manila, 
  Philippines.  Upper-level analysis indicated a moderate wind shear 
  environment due to outflow from Typhoon Pabuk, but favourable diffluence 
  aloft, aided by strong low-level cyclonic shear, allowed the system
  to organize.  A TCFA was issued at 07/1000 UTC, and two hours later,
  the first warning on Tropical Depression 08W was released with the
  system drifting west-northwestward at 15 kts.   The centre was located
  approximately 330 nm east-northeast of Manila, or near 17.2N/126.1E.  
  JMA had first classified the system as a tropical depression near
  14N/128E at 1800 UTC 6 August.

     Drifting northwestward, Tropical Depression 08W was named Wutip at 
  0000 UTC 8 August when JMA raised their 10-min avg MSW to 35 kts.  At 
  the same time, the cyclone was also dubbed Dodeng by PAGASA when the 
  storm had crossed into their AOR.     JTWC upgraded Wutip to a 35-kt 
  tropical storm at 08/0600 UTC.   Under the influence of subtropical 
  ridging that lay across the Northwest Pacific, Tropical Storm Wutip 
  tracked smartly northwestwards, reaching a peak intensity of 40 kts at 
  08/1800 UTC.  Thereafter, strong upper-level shear, convergence aloft, 
  and interaction with Taiwan led to the system's rapid demise.  The LLCC 
  was barely discernible when it reached the eastern coast of Taiwan early
  on 9 August.  (The JTWC position at 09/0600 UTC puts the center of Wutip
  right over central Taiwan.  However, the concurrent JMA position places 
  the center in the Pacific well off the east coast of the island.)   On 
  9 August Wutip's very weak LLCC crossed Taiwan and was downgraded to a 
  tropical depression at 09/0600 UTC.  The final warning was issued at 
  09/1800 UTC, locating the centre in the Taiwan Strait about 135 nm
  west-southwest of Taipei.

  B. Meteorological Observations

     A ship (ID unknown) reported a MSLP of 1001.9 mb and winds 140/28 kts
  at 07/0900 UTC, then 1004.4 mb and 110/33 kts at 07/1200 UTC while
  passing southeast and east, respectively, of the developing center.
  Stations ROIG and ROYN, located 120-150 nm northeast of the center,
  reported winds sustained at 29-33 kts at 1200 UTC on 8 August.  At
  08/1700 UTC Taitung, Taiwan, reported a MSLP of 993 mb, and Pengjiayu
  recorded sustained winds of 37 kts.  (The above information sent by
  Derrick Herndon.)

  C. Damage and Casualties

     Tropical Storm Wutip brought torrential rainfall to the northern 
  Philippines which, added to the rains from Typhoon Pabuk, ended the 
  three-month drought there.  This led to flash flooding and mudslides 
  which claimed three lives and injured 17 others.  Over 10,000 people 
  were left homeless. 

  (Sections A and C written by Kevin Boyle; Section B added by Gary
  Padgett based on information received from Derrick Herndon)

                           SUPER TYPHOON SEPAT
                        (TC-09W / TY 0708 / EGAY)
                              11 - 22 August

  Sepat: contributed by Malaysia, is the name of a freshwater fish
         often found in rivers and swampy areas with lots of weeds,
         and also in paddy fields

  A. Synoptic History

     Super Typhoon Sepat originated as a disturbance in the monsoon 
  trough and was first mentioned in JTWC�s STWO at 0600 UTC 11 August 
  when deep convection persisted northwest of a developing LLCC, located 
  approximately 695 nm southeast of Naha, Okinawa.  (At the same time, 
  JMA identified the system as a tropical depression in their High Seas 
  Forecast.)  Upper-level analysis revealed favourable divergence aloft 
  but moderate wind shear over the system.  Further developments led to 
  the issuance of a TCFA at 11/2000 UTC, and the first warning was issued 
  at 12/0600 UTC, placing the centre of Tropical Depression 09W about 685 
  southeast of Okinawa and quasi-stationary.  The slow-moving tropical 
  cyclone intensified, and was upgraded to a 40-kt tropical storm at 
  12/1200 UTC despite the hindering effects of the northerly shear and a 
  temporary loss of some of its deep convection.  JMA upgraded the system 
  to tropical storm status at 12/1800 UTC, raising their 10-min avg MSW 
  to 35 kts and assigning the name Sepat.  (Locally, in the Philippines,
  the storm was known as Egay.)

     Tropical Storm Sepat steadily intensified on 13 August while 
  tracking in a more westerly direction along the southern perimeter of 
  the subtropical ridge, and was upgraded to an 80-kt typhoon at 0000 UTC 
  14 August approximately 620 nm south-southeast of Naha, Okinawa.  (JMA 
  also upgraded Sepat to typhoon status at the same time.)  After 
  acquiring a 12-nm diameter eye late on 14 August, Sepat strengthened more
  rapidly and was upped to super typhoon status at 15/0000 UTC before 
  reaching its maximum intensity of 140 kts eighteen hours later.   At 
  this time Super Typhoon Sepat was located about 530 nm southeast of 
  Kaoshiung, Taiwan.  Typhoon-force winds extended outward 55 nm from the 
  centre in all quadrants, and gales extended outward from 130-140 nm.  
  JMA estimated the minimum CP at 910 mb.  

     Moving on a north to north-northwesterly track, Sepat remained a 
  super typhoon for 30 hours, undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle 
  late on 16 August.  Weakening began on 17 August as the storm continued 
  northwestward.  Typhoon Sepat made landfall over Taiwan with a MSW of 
  105 kts at around 17/2100 UTC, then proceeded from there into 
  southeastern mainland China, making landfall roughly 550 km northeast 
  of Hong Kong 24 hours later.  Sepat continued to weaken as it tracked 
  further inland.  The former super typhoon was downgraded to a tropical 
  storm on JTWC�s final warning at 19/0000 UTC.   JMA downgraded Sepat to 
  a tropical depression at 20/0000 UTC, but continued to follow the 
  remnants as a depression through 22/1200 UTC when the weak LOW center 
  was located well-inland near 28N/112E.

  B. Meteorological Observations

     The following was received from Derrick Herndon:

     "As Sepat passed NE of Lyudao, the station reported 10-min avg winds
  of 47 kts, gusting to 70 kts, at 2000 UTC on the 17th.   There was a
  secondary peak in the wind 3 hours prior, possibly indicating a residual
  double-eye structure.  Chengong, Taiwan, experienced a direct hit by
  Sepat.  The station reported a pressure of 952 mb with winds 320/46 kts
  (10-min avg) at 2100 UTC on the 17th.  The winds then dropped off to
  25 kts at 2200 UTC, then rose to sustained 57 kts at 2300 UTC as the
  second eyewall passed.  The system was weakening rapidly, thus the lowest
  pressure reported by the station was when the center made landfall to the
  north.  While Sepat exhibited concentric eyewalls as it approached the
  island, Taiwan radar indicated a single large eyewall at the time of
  landfall.  It appears the station was in the southern eyewall at this
  time, so an estimate of the MSLP can be made.  I would put the MSLP at
  landfall around 933 mb.

     "The buoy offshore Chengong also reported a maximum wave height of 
  6.9 meters and a storm surge of 3.5 meters.  After crossing Taiwan, the
  lowest pressure observed was from Penghu, which was 985 mb at 1200 UTC
  on the 18th, supporting a central pressure at this time of 978 mb."

  C. Links and Comments

     A detailed Wikipedia report available for Super Typhoon Sepat may be 
  accessed at the following URL:>

     The following three microwave and AMSU images depict the eyewall
  replacement cycle (ERC) which Sepat underwent on 16 August:>>>

     The link below is a wonderful animation which vividly reveals the 
  details of the ERC.  The typhoon remains stationary at the center of the
  image while the islands of Luzon and Taiwan slowly migrate toward the 
  south-southeast.  Watch how the small, intense eyewall slowly begins to
  erode as a spiral band begins to grow and transform into the new eyewall.>

  D. Damage and Casualties

     According to the online Wikipedia report, Typhoon Sepat brought high 
  winds and torrential rain to Taiwan, resulting in numerous mudslides. 
  The storm caused an estimated US$34.5 million damage to agriculture, 
  and left 70,000 homes without electricity.  The Suao-Hualien Highway 
  was closed due to landslides, and one person was reported dead. 

     According to Wikipedia�s report, Sepat's winds felled billboards and 
  ripped roofs off houses in Fujian Province, killing two people.  Also, 
  Sepat caused landslides in Fujian, leaving 12 people missing.  In 
  Zhejiang a tornado killed 13 people and injured 60 others.  Damage was 
  also reported in Jiangxi and Hunan, and damage in the four provinces 
  was estimated at 5 billion yuan (US$658 million).  The overall death 
  toll was 39.

     Floods caused by heavy monsoonal rains associated with Sepat caused 
  chaos in Metro Manila with at least three people reported dead.

  (Sections A, C and D written by Kevin Boyle; Section B added by Gary
  Padgett based on information received from Derrick Herndon)

                              TYPHOON FITOW
                           (TC-10W / TY 0709)
                         26 August � 9 September

  Fitow: contributed by the Federated States of Micronesia, is the
         Yapese name for a beautiful fragrant flower

  A. Synoptic History

     Typhoon Fitow stemmed from a disturbance located at the eastern end of
  a reverse-oriented monsoon trough.  JMA identified a weak tropical 
  depression at 26/0600 UTC several hundred miles east of the Marianas, 
  near 15N/151E.  The system was referenced in JTWC's TCFA at 1630 UTC 
  28 August, located approximately 560 nm east-northeast of Saipan.  
  Remarks on this statement included: "Animated enhanced infrared satellite 
  imagery indicates deep convection banding into a LLCC with additional 
  convection forming near the center.  The previous two Quikscat passes 
  have also depicted this LLCC with 15-20 kts of unflagged winds.  Upper- 
  level analysis indicates weak vertical shear aloft.  Poleward outflow 
  is being enhanced by TUTT cells to the north and northwest of the LLCC. 
  In addition to good poleward outflow, a ridge south of the LLCC is 
  enhancing equatorward outflow."   The first warning on Tropical 
  Depression 10W was issued at 28/1800 UTC, the system moving 
  northeastward at 13 kts.  JTWC upgraded TD-10W to a 35-kt tropical 
  storm at 29/0000 UTC with the centre located 675 nm northeast of 
  Saipan, moving northeastward at 14 kts.  Six hours later, JMA raised 
  their 10-min avg MSW to 35 kts and named the system Fitow.

     After its upgrade, the storm moved northeastward on 29 August before 
  turning northwards by early 30 August.  Intensifying, the system was 
  upgraded to a 65-kt typhoon at 1800 UTC 29 August while located 
  approximately 860 nm east of Iwo Jima.  At 31/0000 UTC Fitow slowed and 
  backed sharply onto a west-northwesterly heading, attaining an 
  intensity of 80 kts.  The tropical cyclone weakened as it continued 
  slowly west-northwestwards due to the entrainment of drier air and the 
  MSW fell back to 70 kts on 31 August.  Typhoon Fitow maintained 70-75 kt 
  winds for the next two days while meandering slowly westwards.  After 
  breaking away from the monsoon cloud band on 1 September, the cyclone
  began to re-intensify on 2 September and reached a peak intensity of 
  85 kts at 03/0600 UTC.  A weakening trend began late on 3 September but 
  leveled out at 70 kts as Fitow passed close to Chichijima early on 
  4 September.

     Typhoon Fitow gradually re-strengthened as it drifted west-
  northwestwards on 4 September and onto a northwesterly heading the next 
  day.  On 6 September the storm began to accelerate northwards under the 
  influence of a mid-level trough over Korea, and reached its peak 
  intensity of 85 kts for the second time at 0600 UTC 6 September while 
  located approximately 175 nm south-southwest of Tokyo, Japan.  
  Recurving north-northeastwards, Fitow made landfall over Japan as a 
  minimal typhoon late on 6 September.  It was downgraded to a tropical 
  storm by both JTWC and JMA at 07/0000 UTC as it continued to race 
  north-northeastward over northern Honshu.  JTWC issued their last 
  warning at 07/0600 UTC.  Fitow crossed over the northernmost Japanese 
  island of Hokkaido later on the 7th and subsequently moved into the 
  North Pacific.  JMA declared Fitow extratropical and issued their final 
  tropical cyclone warning at 08/0600 UTC.   The extratropical remnants 
  of Fitow continued to diminish and had weakened into a 25-kt LOW near
  46N/148E by 09/0000 UTC.

  B. Meteorological Observations

     Following are some observations and analysis from Derrick Herndon of
  CIMSS (as always, a special thanks to Derrick for the information):

  (Note: All winds are 10-minute average winds unless specified otherwise.)

     Fitow passed about 50 miles north of Chichijima (RJAO) around 0800 UTC
  on the 4th.  This station only reports 3-hourly observations.  At 0600 
  UTC the station reported 976 mb with winds 220@34G64 kts.  At 0900 UTC 
  the pressure had only risen to 979 mb and winds decreased some to 
  250@33G58 kts.  By 1200 UTC the pressure continued to rise to 985 mb and
  winds also increased, apparently due to a stronger rainband with winds 
  220@44G66 kts.  The station is located at 8 meters elevation.  A 
  September 3rd 1549 UTC 37 GHz Aqua image strongly suggested a double 
  eyewall structure; however, this feature appeared to weaken with time 
  over the next 12-18 hours, leaving a larger eye and associated larger 
  radius of maximum winds while passing Chichijima.  The station was on 
  the southern edge of the eyewall.  Based on the station's pressure and 
  winds, the MSLP around 0600 UTC on the 3rd was likely below 968 mb and 
  probably close to 962 mb.

     The center of Fitow made landfall in Honshu on the 6th near Irozaki 
  (47666).  The station recorded sustained winds of 63 knots at 0900 UTC 
  with winds remaining at 56-58 knots sustained until 1200 UTC while the 
  station was within the northern eyewall of the large eye.  Irozaki is 
  located at the southern tip of the Izu Peninsula, and the station is at 
  an elevation of 56 meters.  A minimum pressure of 966.9 mb was recorded 
  at 1300 UTC with winds 080@27 kts, putting the MSLP at landfall around 
  964 mb.  A 10-minute avg wind of 63 knots corresponds to a 1-minute avg
  wind of about 69 knots.  Stronger winds may have occurred to the east of
  the center, thus I estimate the MSW at the time of landfall around 
  75 knots based on the observations.

     Other observations from Fitow are listed below:

  Hachijo-Jima (RJTH 95 meters): 0800 UTC - winds 18046G68 kts with a 
                                 pressure of 980 mb 

  Kozushima Airport (138 meters): 1100 UTC - winds 120@58 kts

  Yokosuka (RJTX 53 meters): 1644 UTC - winds 160@54G73 kts with 
                             a peak wind of 74 kts

     One interesting aspect of this storm was the large spread in the 
  current intensity estimates with the AMSU-based estimates on the high 
  side and the ADT rather weak owing to the poor IR presentation and lack 
  of an eye in the IR.  See the following link:>

  C. Links and Comments
     Typhoon Fitow followed an unusual S-shaped track typically associated 
  with a reverse monsoon trough. A paper describing unusual tropical 
  cyclone tracks, in particular the S-shaped track, written by Dr. Mark 
  Lander, can be found at this link:>

     There is not a special, detailed Wikipedia report available for 
  Typhoon Fitow.  However, the regular report (with additional links) may 
  be accessed at the following URL:>

  D. Damage and Casualties

     According to the Wikipedia report, in Japan seven people were 
  killed, and at least 50 were injured as Fitow brought strong winds and 
  heavy rains.  Over 80,000 houses experienced a power outage.  Transport 
  in and around Tokyo was also affected, with nearly 200 flights cancelled 
  and many commuter trains suspended.  In the Tama area west of central 
  Tokyo, flood warnings were issued for the Tama River, and many homeless 
  people who lived along its banks were swept away.

  (Report written by Kevin Boyle with considerable information supplied by
  Derrick Herndon)


  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

  Activity for August:  1 deep depression **

  ** - no warnings issued on this system by JTWC

               North Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for August

     An area of convection developed and persisted on 4 August about
  175 nm south of Calcutta, India.  Satellite imagery indicated a broad,
  partially-exposed LLCC lying within the monsoon trough over the northern
  Bay of Bengal.   With stronger winds along the southern periphery in
  monsoonal flow and lighter winds near the core, the LOW was exhibiting
  characteristics of a monsoon depression.  At 0000 UTC 5 August, the IMD
  classified the system as a depression.  A SSMI microwave pass at 05/0130
  UTC indicated convective banding wrapping south of the center from the
  northwest with moderate vertical shear over the system.   JTWC upped the
  potential for development to 'fair' at 05/0600 UTC.  A series of ASCAT
  passes on the 5th indicated winds of 20-25 kts on the northern edge of
  the LLCC with 30-kt winds on the southern periphery.  IMD upgraded the
  system to 'deep depression' status at 05/1800 UTC, implying 30-kt winds.
  However, the depression moved westward and crossed the coast of India
  during the morning of the 6th and subsequently began to weaken.  A track
  for this depression is included in the companion cyclone tracks file.

  SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E

  Activity for August:  No tropical cyclones



  Activity for August:  No tropical cyclones



  Activity for August:  No tropical cyclones


  SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E

  Activity for August:  No tropical cyclones



     The purpose of this section is to list some websites where many and
  varied types of tropical cyclone information are archived.  Many readers
  will know about these already, but for the benefit of those who don't,
  I wanted to include them. 

  (1) Aircraft Reconnaissance Information

     Various types of messages from reconnaissance aircraft may be
  retrieved from the following FTP site:>

     Information regarding how to interpret the coded reconnaissance
  messages may be found at the following URL:>

  Links are also included to websites with further information about the
  U. S. Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron and the NOAA Air-
  craft Operations Center.

  (2) Archived Advisories

     All the advisory products (public advisories, forecast/advisories,
  strike probabilities, discussions, various graphics) issued by TPC/NHC
  are archived on TPC's website.  For the current year (using 2004 as an
  example), the archived products can be found at:>

  Links to tropical products archives for earlier years are available at
  the following URL:>

  JTWC warnings for past storms are archived on the NRL Monterrey website:>

  On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left 
  corner of the screen.

     I am not aware at the moment of any other TCWC which archives all
  its tropical cyclone warning/advisory products for public access, but
  if I learn of any, I will add them to this list.

  (3) Satellite Imagery

     Satellite images of tropical cyclones in various sensor bands are
  available on the NRL Monterrey and University of Wisconsin websites,
  courtesy of Jeff Hawkins and Chris Velden and their associates.  The
  links are:>>

  On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left 
  corner of the screen.  For the CIMSS site, a link to data archives is 
  located in the lower left portion of the screen.

     Additional tropical satellite imagery, along with looping ability for
  composite microwave imagery for the Western Hemisphere north of the
  equator, can be found at:

  (1) For the Eastern North Pacific:>

  (2) For the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea:>

  (4) Cyclone Tracking Information

     There is a U. S. Navy site that tracks tropical cyclones at 6-hourly
  intervals which often includes pre and post-advisory positions.  The
  link to the site is:>

     Steve Young has compiled many of these tracks onto a single webpage
  which is very user-friendly:>

     I'm sure there are other sites with available imagery available, and
  as I learn of them, I will add the links to this list.


                                EXTRA FEATURE

     In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
  material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
  acronyms.   I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
  in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then.  Most of
  these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
  few aren't clear to some.  To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
  Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the August, 1998
  summary.  I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in
  order to help keep them from being too long.  If anyone would like to
  receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy
  to send them a copy.


  AUTHOR'S NOTE:  This summary should be considered a very preliminary 
  overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
  tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
  warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers.  The
  information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
  intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
  on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
  on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
  centers will be passed along from time to time.

    The track files are not being sent via e-mail.  They can be retrieved
  from the archive sites listed below.  (Note: I do have a limited e-mail
  distribution list for the track files.    If anyone wishes to receive
  these via e-mail, please send me a message.)

    Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
  created in DOS editor.  Download to disk and use a viewer such as
  Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.

     The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
  1997.   Back issues can be obtained from the following websites
  (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, Chris
  Landsea, and John Diebolt):>>>>>

     Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
  be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office.  Their site
  contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
  globally on a monthly basis.  The URL is:>


     JTWC now has available on its website the Annual Tropical Cyclone
  Report (ATCR) for 2005 (2004-2005 season for the Southern Hemisphere).
  ATCRs for earlier years are available also.

     The URL is:>

     Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
  tracking charts for the 2006 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
  tropical cyclones; also, storm reports for all the 2006 Atlantic
  and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as
  track charts and reports on storms from earlier years. 

     The URL is:>

     A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales,
  Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries.


  Gary Padgett
  E-mail:  [email protected]
  Phone:  334-222-5327

  Kevin Boyle  (Northwest Pacific)
  E-mail:  [email protected]

  Simon Clarke  (Northeast Australia/Coral Sea, South Pacific)
  E-mail:  [email protected]


Document: summ0708.htm
Updated: 30th November 2007

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