[Index]
Tropical Cyclone 200817
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone 200817 [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTXS21 PGTW 20080206 19:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.7S 104.0E TO 17.3S 108.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 061800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.0S 104.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.0S 104.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 061537Z AMSU-B PASS
SHOW DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. RECENT SCATTEROMETER
DATA REVEAL THAT A BURST OF ENHANCED WESTERLY WINDS ON THE EQUATOR-
WARD SIDE IS AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX. HOWEVER,
THE PERIPHERAL WINDS OF A UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ARE BUFFETING
THIS DISTURBANCE WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. LOW TO MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CARRY THIS DISTURBANCE CLOSER TO
THE CENTER OF THIS UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
RESULTING IN DECREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IMPROVED MULTI-
DIRECTIONAL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS EST-
IMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SIGNATURE
AND ANTICIPATED IMPROVEMENTS IN UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 071930Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080207 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040251Z FEB 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 16.2S 105.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 105.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.5S 106.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.8S 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.0S 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.1S 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 105.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 625 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND KNES HAVE REACHED 35 KNOTS, JUSTIFYING THE INITIAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM. TC 17S REMAINS IN A MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, BUT
HAS DEVELOP DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRC-
ULATION AND HAS GOOD CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTH AS DEPICTED IN
A 062208Z SSMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE,
THEREFORE THE STORM WILL ONLY SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORE-
CAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS WHICH ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 061921Z FEB 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 061930 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z AND 080300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080207 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 16.8S 105.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 105.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.1S 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.3S 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.4S 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.4S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 106.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES RANGING FROM 30 TO
45 KNOTS. OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED
OVER TC 17S, HOWEVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS
WELL DEFINED WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTH-
WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM AS DEPICTED IN A 071125Z SSMI MICRO-
WAVE IMAGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERI-
PHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN
MODERATE THROUGH TAU 24 LIMITING INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-TERM,
HOWEVER AFTER TAU 24 SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE, AND THE
STORM WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WHICH ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z AND 081500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
16S (HONDO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) AND TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (NONAME)
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080208 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 17.1S 107.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 107.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.5S 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.6S 108.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.4S 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.9S 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 107.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
NORTHWEST LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
FOR TC 17S REMAINS WELL DEFINED, BUT PARTIALLY EXPOSED, UNDER
MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR REMAINS THE PRIMARY INHIBITING FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION
FOR TC 17S, AND IS FORECAST TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE BEFORE
TURNING TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY TRACK AFTER TAU 24. THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD THE SYSTEM WILL BE INHIBITED BY THE CURRENT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS, HOWEVER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD (NEAR TAU 72)
SOME LESSENING OF THE WIND SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED, WHICH IN COMBINATION
WITH HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW INTENSIFICATION TO
OCCUR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 081500Z AND 090300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S
(HONDO) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S
(IVAN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080208 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 17.2S 107.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 107.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.2S 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 16.9S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.6S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 16.0S 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 108.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 17S HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS.
THIS INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45
KNOTS AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER OBSERVATIONS RANGING FROM 25 TO 35
KNOTS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FOR TC 17S REMAINS WELL
DEFINED, BUT IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WHICH IS THE PRIMARY INHIBITING FACTOR FOR SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 12 BEFORE TURNING TO A MORE
NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD THE SYSTEM WILL
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BUT WILL REMAIN INHIBITED BY THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO SURPASS SURPASS 45 KNOTS IN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z AND 091500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
16S (HONDO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) AND TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN)
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080209 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNING NR 005
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 17.1S 108.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 108.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.0S 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.7S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 16.3S 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 108.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS
A FULLY EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH CONVECTION SHEARED OVER 100 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH MODERATE TO HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT. A 082351Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE CONFIRMS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THROUGH TAU 12 AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 24 AS A RESULT OF CONTINUED
MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES AND A DETERIORATING LLCC.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT PRIOR
TO DISSIPATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 13
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z AND 100300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
16S (HONDO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080209 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 16.5S 108.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 108.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 15.8S 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 15.0S 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 108.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY REVEALS
A FULLY EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH CONVECTION SHEARED OVER 100 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH MODERATE TO HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT. A 091023Z QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 12 AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 24 AS A RESULT OF
CONTINUED MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES AND A DETER-
IORATING LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM. THIS FORECAST PUSHES THE TIME OF DISSIPATION BACK 12
HOURS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 100300Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080210 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 15.7S 109.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 109.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 15.0S 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 109.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED AND DISSIPATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH ALL REMAINING CONVECTION BEING SHEARED OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST. A 092255Z QUIKSCAT SHOWS 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AT THE CORE
WITH 30-KNOT GRADIENT WINDS TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 12 DUE TO CONTINUED HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS
12 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN)
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
|
Document: 200817.htm
Updated: 11th February 2008 |
[Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] |