Tropical Cyclones [Index]

Tropical Cyclone 200824 [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]

WTPS21 PGTW 20080320 12:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.6S 163.4E TO 21.0S 164.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 201100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.0S 163.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.9S
164.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 163.4E, APPROXIMATELY 305 NM NORTH-
WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 200935Z SSMIS
IMAGE INDICATED A CONVECTIVE BAND NORTH WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTH-
EAST QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD POLE-
WARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF NEW
CALEDONIA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 211200Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080320 21:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR/201151ZMAR2008//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 163.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 163.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 19.8S 164.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 20.5S 164.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 20.8S 164.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 20.8S 164.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 163.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM NORTHWEST
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP
CONVECTION. A 201429Z AQUA MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS TIGHT CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS. INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED
ON DVORAK ANALYSIS FROM PGTW AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NEW
CALEDONIA. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH ENHANCED EASTWARD OUTFLOW ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STORM IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE IS PROVIDING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AS WELL. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG A
NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTERACT WITH NEW
CALEDONIA BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL WANE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A RESULT OF MIDLATITUDE
AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL DECREASE DRAMATICALLY IN THE
LATER FORECAST TAUS AND WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST IS BASED
ON THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE MODEL AIDS, WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN REGARDS TO INTENSITY AND TRACK. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 201151Z MAR 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 201200) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
201800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND 212100Z. JUSTIF-
ICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED SPELLING IN REMARKS SECTION.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080321 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210600Z --- NEAR 21.0S 164.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 164.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 21.9S 164.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 22.5S 165.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 164.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24P LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM WEST-NORTHWEST
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
SLIGHTLY WEAKENED SYSTEM TRACKING OVER NORTHWESTERN NEW CALEDONIA.
BASED ON A 210450Z TRMM 37GHZ IMAGE AND SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS, THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE
ISLAND AND REMAINS WELL-DEFINED DESPITE THE WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING.
THE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KNOTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE,
AND SLP VALUES NEAR 1000MB. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREAS-
INGLY UNFAVORABLE WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING UNDER MODERATE TO HIGH
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 24P IS TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
MARGINAL SST AND DECREASING, UNFAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE PRIMARILY TO THE VWS, LAND INTER-
ACTION AND COOLER SST. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MODEL
CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 24P IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 210600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080321 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211800Z --- NEAR 21.6S 163.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 163.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 22.1S 163.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 22.6S 162.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 163.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24P LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED
METSAT IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENED SYSTEM WITH A WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED TO THE NORTH-
WEST OF THE CONVECTION. THE DISPLACEMENT IS DUE TO MODERATE
TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACTING ON THE SYSTEM. THE WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER AND WILL LEAD TO FULL
DISSIPATION OVER WATER PRIOR TO TAU 24. THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 8 FEET.