Tropical Cyclones [Index]

Tropical Cyclone 200827 [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]

WTPS21 PGTW 20080417 18:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9S 157.9E TO 17.6S 161.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 171200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.4S 158.3E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7S
158.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 158.3E, APPROXIMATELY 255 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED OVER LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, A 171439Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES THE LLCC IS CONSOLIDATING. THE MOST RECENT 170737Z
QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS 20-KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS AT THE CORE. AN
ANTICYCLONE IS SITUATED ALOFT OF THE DISTURBANCE AND IS
PROVIDING EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND COULD FACILITATE RAPID DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE OVER THE LLCC AND THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 181830Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080418 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MY/171821Z APR 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180000Z --- NEAR 15.2S 160.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 160.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 17.7S 164.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 20.3S 167.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 22.8S 170.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 27 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 26.1S 175.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 161.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02W (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 27P HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE ALONG THE SOUTH
PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). A STRONG 200 MB ANTICYCLONE
PROVIDING STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT. A 171907Z WINDSAT PASS SHOWS UNFLAGGED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS
NEAR THE CENTER. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD IN A
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ALONG THE SPCZ. THE GFS THE ONLY NUMERICAL
MODEL CURRENTLY RESOLVING THE STORM, AND CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK
SPEED IS LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF OBJECTIVE AIDS. THE STORM WILL
INTENSIFY IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND 20S. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE VICE INTERACTING WITH IT, AND THEREFORE
THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS OPPOSED TO UNDERGOING EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 171821Z APR 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 171830) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z AND 190300Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080418 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181200Z --- NEAR 17.0S 164.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 164.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 19.1S 166.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 21.1S 169.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 22.7S 171.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 164.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27P (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE MAJOR CONVECTION MAY BE BEGINNING TO WANE HOWEVER
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETRY DATA SHOW UNFLAGGED WINDS OF 35
KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE SPCZ WHILE MAINTAINING INTENSITY DURING THE DIURNAL PERIOD
OF MAXIMUM CONVECTION. AS 27P NEARS 20 SOUTH IT WILL BEGIN ENCOUNTERING
HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHILE TRACKING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
VICE INTERACTING WITH IT. THE STORM WILL LIKELY NOT UNDERGO EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION, BUT RATHER, WILL DISSIPATE NEAR TAU 36 AS VERTICAL
SHEAR FURTHER INCREASES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z AND 191500Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080419 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190000Z --- NEAR 18.4S 165.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 165.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 20.9S 168.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 166.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
NORTH OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AN 181938Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 181925Z QUIKSCAT
PASS INDICATES 20 TO 25 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS WRAPPING INTO AN
ELONGATED LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AS THE STORM TRACKS TOWARDS
NEW CALDONIA. THESE FACTORS WILL ULTIMATELY WEAKEN THE STORM
BELOW 35 KNOTS BY TAU 12. DISSIPATION WILL OCCUR OVER WATER
WELL NORTH OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 12 FEET.