[Index]
Tropical Cyclone DAMAN
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone DAMAN [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTPS21 PGTW 20071204 02:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2S 176.6W TO 14.7S 177.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 040130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.5S 177.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6S
176.6W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 177.2W, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM NORTH-
EAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
032054Z AMSU IMAGE SHOW PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPROVING CONS-
OLIDATION NEAR A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS. THE DISTURBANCE LIES DIRECTLY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL ANT-
ICYCLONE, WHICH IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LIMITING THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
050230Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20071205 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MY/040221Z DEC 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 12.1S 178.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 178.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 12.5S 176.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 13.2S 175.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 14.4S 175.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 15.6S 176.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 178.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE LOWER END
OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 KNOTS (PGTW, KNES) TO 45
KNOTS (ABRF). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE AND
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 05P IS TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, WITH THE SYSTEM BEGINNING A
TURN TO THE SOUTH NEAR TAU 24 AS THE STORM ENCOUNTERS A TROUGH
ADVANCING FROM THE WEST. AFTER TAU 24 THE STORM WILL SLOW AND
CONTINUE TO RECURVE AS IT COMES UNDER INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM
THE TROUGH BEFORE COMING TO A SOUTHEASTERLY HEADING NEAR TAU 48.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE WAS LIMITED DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE
STORM BUT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND SYNOPTIC
SITUATION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
040221Z DEC 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW
040230). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 8 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z AND 060300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20071205 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (DAMAN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 12.6S 176.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 176.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 13.5S 175.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 14.2S 174.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 14.8S 175.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 15.6S 176.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 176.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (DAMAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM NORTH
OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. TC 05P IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE
SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED SLOWLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 05P WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 BEFORE
TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO SLOW AS IT
ENTERS A PERIOD OF WEAK STEERING BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 060300Z AND 061500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20071206 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (DAMAN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 14.7S 175.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 175.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 15.7S 175.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 16.6S 176.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 17.7S 177.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 19.6S 178.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 175.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (DAMAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM NORTH
OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, TC 05P HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY AND
TURNED MORE SOUTHWARD AS IT TRACKED ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN POS-
ITIONING WHICH WAS BASED ON TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING AND SEVERAL MICRO-
WAVE IMAGES SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AT
37 GHZ. TC 05P HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY DUE TO THE EXCELLENT DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW EVIDENT IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS WELL AS
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC).
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM
ALL AVAILABLE AGENCIES. TC 05P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 24 BUT
WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE WITHIN EN-
HANCED POLEWARD FLOW BETWEEN THE APPROACHING DEEP TROUGH AND THE
RIDGE TO THE EAST. OVERALL, THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS TRACK BUT DIVERGE SLIGHTLY AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO THE WEAK-
ENING OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND LOWER SST/OHC. MAXIMUM SIGNIF-
ICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z
AND 070300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20071206 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (DAMAN) WARNING NR 004
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (DAMAN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 15.4S 176.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 176.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 16.1S 177.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.8S 178.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.9S 179.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 19.2S 179.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 176.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (DAMAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, TC 05P HAS SLOWED TURNED SOUTH-
EASTWARD AS IT RECURVED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DURING THIS TIME, TC 05P HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFIED
AND AN EYE FEATURE DEVELOPED IN ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY GIVING A HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN POSITIONING. THE INTENSIFICATION IS DUE TO THE EXCELLENT
DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW EVIDENT IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS WELL AS
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC).
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 TO 75 KNOTS FROM
ALL AVAILABLE AGENCIES. TC 05P IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY AS IT
CONTINUES TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, 05P WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AND SLIGHTLY ACCELERATE WITHIN ENHANCED POLEWARD FLOW BETWEEN THE APPROACHING
DEEP TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. OVERALL, THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK BUT STILL DIVERGE SLIGHTLY AFTER TAU
48 DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LAND INTERACTION, AND LOWER SST
AND OHC. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 070300Z AND 071500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20071206 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (DAMAN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 15.4S 177.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 177.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.1S 178.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 17.1S 179.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.7S 179.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 20.9S 179.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 177.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (DAMAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM NORTH
OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
TC 05P HAS UNDERGONE A PERIOD OF EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING SUPPORTED BY HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW DURING THE PAST 06
HOURS. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM REPORTING AGENCIES
RANGE FROM 5.0/5.0 (PHFO) TO 6.0/6.0 (PGTW) AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET ACCORDINGLY AT 100 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS
BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT RECENT IMPROVEMENTS IN STORM STRUCTURE, TRACK
FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. TC 05P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACH-
ING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM. THE
CONTINUING INFLUENCES OF GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM WATER BELOW WILL
ALLOW THE STORM TO FURTHER INTENSIFY PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL ON VANUA
LEVU ISLAND BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24. THEREAFTER, LAND INTERACTION AND
DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE STRUCTURAL CHANGES
AND SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 36. MORE RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR
BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48 AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH INCREASES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
061800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z AND 072100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20071207 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (DAMAN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 15.7S 178.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 178.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.4S 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.9S 178.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.8S 178.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 21.9S 178.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 178.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (DAMAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM NORTH-
EAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. AFTER UNDER GOING A PERIOD OF EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING, THE EYE HAS
BECOME MORE RAGGED AND COVERED BY CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
WITH A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 5.5 FROM PGTW, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET ACCORDINGLY AT 105 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY FORECAST
HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT RECENT EROSION IN THE STORM STRUCTURE, TRACK
FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. TC 05P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM. THE CON-
TINUING INFLUENCE OF GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE STORM TO MAINTAIN
MUCH OF THE INTENSITY AS IT MAKES LANDFALL ON EASTERN VANUA LEVU ISLAND
PRIOR TO TAU 12. THEREAFTER, LAND INTERACTION AND DECREASING OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE STRUCTURAL CHANGES AND SLOW WEAKENING
THROUGH TAU 48. OVERALL, MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
CURRENT FORECAST REASONING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z
IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z AND 080900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20071207 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (DAMAN) WARNING NR 007
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (DAMAN) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 15.7S 179.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 179.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 16.7S 177.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.3S 176.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 20.5S 176.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 22.7S 177.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 178.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (DAMAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. TC 05P HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-
ATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING EASTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO
THE NORTH OF THE STORM. HOWEVER, AS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST MOVES CLOSER TO TC 05P, THE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO REORIENT AND INDUCE AN INCREASINGLY POLEWARD STORM TRACK THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STORM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN AS INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURATURES
ERODE THE STORM STRUCTURE. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN
AROUND TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EMBED WITHIN THE APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS
24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20071208 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (DAMAN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 16.9S 178.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 178.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.1S 177.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.5S 177.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 21.2S 178.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 22.7S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 178.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (DAMAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
EAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 05P HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST 12
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DECREASING CONVECTION OVER
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH IS BECOMING PARTIALLY
EXPOSED. A 080515Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION
IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC. TC 05P IS
BEING STEERED BY THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-
EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE EARLY
FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 24. TC 05P
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 36 AND COMP-
LETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z AND 090900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20071208 21:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (DAMAN) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 17.6S 177.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 177.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 18.6S 177.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 20.1S 178.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 21.9S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 177.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (DAMAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
EAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH HAS LEFT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULA-
TION OF TC 05P FULLY EXPOSED. THE STORM HAS BEEN TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE EXTEN-
SION TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER, A SECOND RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXERT AN INCREASING INFLUENCE ON STORM
MOTION, PUSHING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF THE AFOREMEN-
TIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE STORM CIRCULATION IS FORECAST
TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA AS IT
BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH AFTER TAU 24. BECAUSE
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST, THE SYSTEM
MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE THIS TRANSITION CAN BE COMPLETED. IN EITHER
CASE, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
LITTLE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND
092100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20071209 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (DAMAN) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 18.5S 178.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 178.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.4S 178.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.3S 178.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 178.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (DAMAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
EAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH NO CONVECTION REMAINING OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATE
BY TAU 24. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 090600Z IS 16 FEET.//
|
Document: daman.htm
Updated: 10th December 2007 |
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