[Index]
Tropical Cyclone FUNA
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone FUNA [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTPS31 PGTW 20080116 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSGID/MSG/160151ZJAN2008//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (FUNA) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 15.1S 164.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 164.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 14.5S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 14.0S 167.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 13.8S 169.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 14.2S 171.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 165.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TD) 12P (FUNA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 740 NM
WEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT STORM POSITION AND INTENSITY
ARE BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, PHFO, NFFN, ABRF
AND KNES. THESE FIXES JUSTIFY AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS.
THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24,
BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD NEAR TAU 36. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TC 12P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE SOLOMON ISLANDS. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 160151ZJAN2008
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 160200). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
162100Z AND 170900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080116 21:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (FUNA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 14.8S 166.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 166.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 14.8S 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 15.3S 170.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.5S 171.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.0S 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 166.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (FUNA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT STORM POSITION AND INTENSITY OF 55
KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE FIXES, AND A RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTING EXCELLENT CONSOLIDATION AND INCREASED CONVECTIVE
BANDING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANAL-
YSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH INCREASED OUTFLOW ALOFT IN BOTH THE
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD HEMISPHERES OF THE SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY
STEERING INFLUENCE REMAINS THE STRONG RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF TC 12P WHICH SUPPORTS THE FORECASTED TRACK MOVING EAST
THROUGH TAU 24, BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR TAU 36. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
170900Z AND 172100Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080117 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (FUNA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 15.5S 169.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 169.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.3S 170.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.2S 171.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.8S 172.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 20.7S 172.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 169.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (FUNA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
FIXES FROM NFFN, PGTW AND ABRF, WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE
65 KT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK VALUES OF 4.0 FROM PGTW AND NFFN.
ADDITIONALLY, AN SSMI 170540z MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A BANDING EYE WITH
AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM HAS
INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO A WELL-DEVELOPED EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC 12P WILL SLOW SLIGHTLY NEAR TAU 24 BEFORE
ACCELERATING POLEWARD IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN. THE LATEST
FORECAST CALLS FOR A MORE RAPID INTENSIFICTION THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. BY TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS ALIGNMENT WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WHICH
IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY STIPS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES REMAIN LOW
AND THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO EVEN HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES.
THE STORM WILL REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND
180900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080117 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (FUNA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 16.5S 171.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 171.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.0S 172.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.6S 172.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 21.1S 173.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 23.6S 173.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 171.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (FUNA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM
WEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT
METSAT IMAGERY AND THE PGTW FIX. THE 70 KT INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK VALUES OF 4.0 AND 4.5 FROM PGTW AND ABRF, RESPECT-
IVELY. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A BANDING EYE WITH AREAS OF
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED
TO INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO WELL-DEVELOPED EQUATOR-
WARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC 12P WILL CONTINUE TO CURVE
TOWARD THE SOUTH THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRIOR
TO TAU 24, THIS TRACK WILL MOVE THE TC INTO WATERS WITH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT HIGHER THAN THE ALREADY FAVORABLE WATERS IT IS CURRENTLY OVER.
THE CONTINUATION OF THE DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND THE INCREASE IN
AVAILABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL ALLOW TC 12P TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
AT A RAPID RATE. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY BY TAU
36. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PRIOR TO TAU 48 WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND CAUSE THE INTENSITY TO LEVEL OFF. THE LATEST
FORECAST CALLS FOR A FASTER MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. OVERALL, THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z AND 182100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080118 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (FUNA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 18.2S 172.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 172.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 20.4S 173.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.2S 174.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 26.6S 173.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 29.7S 171.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 173.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (FUNA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY HAS REVEALED
A LOW LEVEL EYE STRUCTURE WITH DEEP CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 4.5 FROM PGTW, ABRF,
AND NFFN WERE USED FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE AS A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
IS PROVIDING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THIS OUTFLOW CHANNEL SHOULD
ALLOW THE STORM TO REACH ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY BY TAU 24. THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE TYPE PATTERN. THE
TRACK SPEED HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS HAD VERIFIED TOO SLOW FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS,
BUT THE MODELS HAVE UNIFORMLY PREDICTED AN INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED
IN THEIR LATEST RUNS. THE AVAILABLE MODEL FIELDS ALSO FORECAST AN
INTERACTION BETWEEN TC 12P AND A 500 MB TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED
NORTHWEST OF NEW ZEALAND, WHICH WILL INDUCE A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND TAU 36. AROUND THIS TIME, TC 12P WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO
EXTRATROPICAL AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR 25S. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
182100Z AND 190900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080118 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (FUNA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 19.9S 174.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 174.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 22.6S 175.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 26.7S 174.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 29.8S 170.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 31.7S 168.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 174.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (FUNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
SOUTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS INTENSIFIED CONSIDERABLY OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS, WITH CURRENT SATELLITE-DERIVED ESTIMATES SUPPORTING
AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS. MOREOVER, THE CYCLONE NOW HAS A 24-NM
IRREGULAR EYE EVIDENT IN RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM IS
MAINTAINING GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES
JUST TO THE WEST OF 12P. THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM MAY INTENSIFY IN THE
SHORT TERM BEFORE ENCOUNTERING A SHARP SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
NEAR 24 DEGREES (SOUTH) LATITUDE. THE AMPLIFYING MIDLATITUDE PATTERN,
COUPLED WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST, WILL PROMOTE A RATHER
RAPID POLEWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE AVAILABLE MODEL FIELDS DEPICT AN INTERACTION BETWEEN TC 12P AND THE
500 MB TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTHWEST OF NEW ZEALAND. THIS
INTERACTION, COUPLED WITH MUCH LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WILL
INITIATE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW AT THE 48-HOUR
FORECAST POINT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND 192100Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080119 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (FUNA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 22.1S 175.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 175.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 25.6S 174.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 28.4S 171.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 30.7S 169.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 34.9S 167.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 175.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM EAST OF
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE
FIXES ON AN APPROXIMATELY 25 NM DIAMETER EYE FROM PGTW, NFFN, KNES,
ABRF AND PHFO. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE SAME AGENCIES
RESULTS IN THE INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR
TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 24
AND COMPLETE THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS NEAR TAU 48.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 192100Z AND 200900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080119 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (FUNA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 25.9S 175.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.9S 175.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 29.3S 172.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 32.3S 170.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 35.9S 168.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 26.7S 174.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (FUNA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM
NORTH OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 23 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY IS
BASED ON AVAILABLE DVORAK SATELLITE FIXES. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED
AND HAS LOST CONSIDERABLE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
THE STORM HAS ALSO ACCELERATED TO THE SOUTH. THE FORECAST REASONING
HAS CHANGED ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TC 12P IS NOW
EXPECTED TO TRACK AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED AND WILL ALSO COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION EARLIER. THE STORM WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PRIOR
TO TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 BEFORE
TRACKING SOUTHWARD AGAIN, AS THE STORM COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION JUST AFTER TAU 24. THE OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREE-
MENT WITH THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z
IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z AND 202100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080120 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (FUNA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 29.0S 171.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.0S 171.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 32.2S 167.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 29.8S 170.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (FUNA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTH-
WESTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND
INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE MIDLATITUDES. THE SYSTEM HAS LOST
NEARLY ALL DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR
TAU 12. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
REMAINS STRONG, AND THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN STRONG WINDS AS AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 25 FEET.//
|
Document: funa.htm
Updated: 21st January 2008 |
[Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] |