[Index]
Tropical Cyclone HONDO
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone HONDO [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTXS21 PGTW 20080204 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 085 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5S 80.6E TO 15.5S
78.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES
NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT
THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 032330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER
IS LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 80.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2S
81.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 80.2E, APPROXIMATELY 560 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOW FLARING CONVECTION OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), WHICH WAS EVIDENT IN PREVIOUS MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY.
A 040112Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGIN-
NING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC. A 031300Z QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMS THIS
CIRCULATION CENTER AND DEPICTS AN AREA OF 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ON
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE CONVECTION HAS IMPROVED
OVER THE DEVELOPING LLCC, WHICH IS NOW LOCATED IN A NARROW REGION
OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONVECTION,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 050300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080204 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040251Z FEB 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 79.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 79.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 13.6S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 13.8S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 13.8S 81.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 14.0S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 80.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL ORGA-
NIZED SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCU-
LATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CONVECTION HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND HAS LOWERED THE CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES
AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A WEAK STEERING ENVI-
RONMENT FROM THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL SLOWLY CAUSE THE STORM
TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE.
FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW TC 16S TO
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMIC
AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 040251Z FEB
08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 040300) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050300Z AND 051500Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080205 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 13.5S 80.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 80.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 13.6S 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 13.7S 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 13.8S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 13.9S 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 80.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 585 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 041955Z
AMSR-E IMAGE DEPICT IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE EAST INTO THE NORTH
QUADRANT. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION WHICH IS
BASED ON EXCELLENT CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A CLEAR LOW-LEVEL CIRC-
ULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTER
WITH IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LOW NEAR 17S 68E.
TC 16S HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN
AVERAGE OF THESE ESTIMATES. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY
THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO THE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND THE
NER SHOULD BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS REFLECT THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND INDICATE
QUASI-STATIONARY OR VERY SLOW TRACK SPEEDS THROUGH TAU 24 THEN
SLIGHT ACCELERATION THROUGH TAU 48. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 12 BUT SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE AS
THE UPPER-LOW SHIFTS WEST, ALLOWING FOR IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
AND THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES. THIS FORECAST IS POSITIONED
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK AND THE
LIKELY TRACK EASTWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z AND 060300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080205 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040251Z FEB 08//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 13.7S 80.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 80.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 13.8S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 13.8S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 13.9S 82.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 14.1S 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 81.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY AND SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE A PERIOD OF RAPID INTEN-
SIFICATION OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
AN AVERAGE OF THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM FMEE, KNES AND PGTW. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL MESO-ANTICYCLONE JUST EAST OF
CENTER AND GOOD DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THIS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND ALLOW THE
SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY. TC 16S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO
THE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. OVERALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
REFLECT THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY SLOW EASTWARD TRACK
SPEEDS. THE FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
THE PREVIOUS WARNING DUE TO THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.
THIS CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT DYNAMIC
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060300Z AND 061500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080206 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 14.0S 81.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 81.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 14.2S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 14.3S 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 14.5S 82.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 14.8S 83.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 81.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING PINPOINT EYE. A 060046Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS AN EYEWALL WITH GOOD CONVECTIVE BANDING NORTH AND SOUTH OF
THE CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED RADIAL
OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE
SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE HIGH-CONFIDENCE EYE
POSITION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ON A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD
COURSE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
BUILDING IN TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM BUT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FORECAST IS BASED
ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS.
TC 16S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AT A
15 KNOT PER DAY RATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z
IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z AND 070300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080206 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 14.2S 81.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 81.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 14.4S 82.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 14.6S 82.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 14.9S 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 15.3S 84.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 81.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 685 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT METSAT AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE
GIVING THE INITIAL POSITION A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD RADIAL OUT-
FLOW ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
WILL PERSIST. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC
AIDS WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ONE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
061200Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND 071500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080206 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 14.4S 82.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 82.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 14.7S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 14.9S 83.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 15.2S 83.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 15.7S 84.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 82.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 705 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 16S HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THIS RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND RESULTANT HIGHER
FORECAST INTENSITIES ARE DEPARTURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 115 TO 127 KNOTS SUPPORT
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES
TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW EN-
HANCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STORM
WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE MAINTAINING
INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE. THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY TAU 48 AS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE DUE TO AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE
DYNAMIC AIDS WHICH ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z AND
072100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080207 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 14.7S 82.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 82.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.0S 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 15.4S 84.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.0S 85.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 16.7S 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 82.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 745 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 16S HAS MAINTAINED A CONSISTENT
INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE INTENSITY IS
SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 115 TO 127
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENV-
IRONMENT WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE STORM WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24 THEN BEGIN
TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY TAU 48 AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE
DUE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON
THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS WHICH ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
072100Z AND 080900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) AND TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080207 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 15.0S 82.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 82.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 15.2S 83.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 15.7S 84.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 16.6S 84.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 17.8S 85.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 83.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 770 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 16S HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS, AND HAS TAKEN ON ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS. TC 16S IS TRACKING
SLOWLY EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH. A SLOW POLEWARD TURN IS ANTICIPATED NEAR TAU 24 WITH
ACCELERATION TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH EXPECTED AFTER TAU 24. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS INTERACTION WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH OCCURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z
IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080208 09:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 009A CORRECTED
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 15.1S 83.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 83.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 15.6S 84.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 16.6S 85.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 17.9S 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 19.3S 86.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 83.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 802 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE INTENSITY OF TC 16S HAS DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, WHICH IS SEEN IN MULTISPECTRAL AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY WHICH DEPICT THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO
THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE STORM. TC 16S IS TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST. AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN A POLE-
WARD TURN AND IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AS IT TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST-
WARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THE
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS INTERACTION WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH OCCURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z
IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z AND 090900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) AND TROPICAL CYCLONE
18S (IVAN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTI-
FICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED ERROR IN WAVE HEIGHT IN REMARKS.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080208 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 010
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 15.6S 84.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 84.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 16.7S 85.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 17.9S 85.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 19.3S 85.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 20.5S 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 84.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 870 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A SYMMETRIC
AND MATURE SYSTEM WITH DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. A 081456Z 85 GHZ SSMI/S
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE WELL-DEFINED EYE.
HOWEVER, RECENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REFLECTED A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE MODEL AIDS, WHICH
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON STIPS, WHICH
FORECASTS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE STORM TRACKS TOWARD
LOWER, BUT STILL ADEQUATE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN)
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080209 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 011
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 16.6S 85.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 85.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.1S 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 19.6S 86.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.1S 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 22.1S 85.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 85.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 940 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY REVEALS A SYMMETRIC AND MATURE
SYSTEM WITH DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND A WELL-DEFINED EYE. HOWEVER,
RECENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REFLECTED A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER COOLER
WATERS AND THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW DECREASES. THIS FORECAST TRACK AND
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE MODEL
AIDS, WHICH REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OVERALL THE FORECAST HAS NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ONE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080209 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/WTXS31 PGTW 092100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 012
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 18.2S 86.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 86.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 19.6S 86.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 20.8S 86.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.8S 85.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.5S 85.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 86.5E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 40 FEET.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1050 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 16S HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LOWER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL,
IRREGULAR AND RAGGED EYE WITH DECREASED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
CONTINUED GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, A 091443Z SSMI/S PASS
REVEALS A SLIGHT DISPLACEMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE
EYE DUE TO THE HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK SOUTHWARD ON A POLEWARD EXTENSION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE,
AND THEN TO BEGIN TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH AROUND TAU 36. THE STORM WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN IN A CONTINUED MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. NEXT WARNINGS AT
100900Z AND 102100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NONAME)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080210 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 013
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 20.3S 86.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 86.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.9S 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 23.0S 85.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 23.7S 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 23.9S 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 86.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1130 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY SHOWS A RAGGED
EYE WITH DECREASED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND CONTINUED GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, A 100156Z SSMIS PASS REVEALS A SLIGHT SOUTH-
WARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE EYE-WALL DUE TO THE HIGHER VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR VALUES. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHWEST THEN WEST
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS
BUILDING TO THE SOUTH. THE STORM WILL WEAKEN AS IT REMAINS OVER
MARGINAL WATERS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
OBJECTIVE AIDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST
HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS. NEXT WARNINGS AT
100900Z AND 102100Z. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS
35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080210 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 014
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 21.6S 86.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 86.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 22.8S 85.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 23.5S 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 23.6S 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 23.5S 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 21.9S 86.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1200 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS
A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION NOW SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE
TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, A 101429Z SSMI/S MICROWAVE
IMAGE STILL INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG AN UPPER LEVEL ANTI-
CYCLONE SITUATED ITS EAST. WITHIN THE FIRST 12 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO THE SOUTHWEST INDUCING A MORE WESTWARD STEERING
COMPONENT. TC 16S HAS ALREADY WEAKENED MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST,
AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS IT TRACKS THROUGH LOWER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND A REGION OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z AND 112100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN)
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080211 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 015
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 23.0S 86.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S 86.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 24.0S 85.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.2S 84.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.0S 83.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 86.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1220 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY SHOWS A
WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION AND A WELL-DEFINE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRACKING POLEWARD
ALONG AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SITUATED TO ITS EAST. WITHIN THE
FIRST 12 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH-
WEST INDUCING A MORE WESTWARD STEERING COMPONENT. TC 16S HAS WEAK-
ENED MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS THROUGH LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
A REGION OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL
FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101800Z IS 28 FEET. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080211 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 016
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 24.4S 85.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4S 85.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.5S 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 23.8S 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 23.0S 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 24.4S 85.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1310 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ALL AVAILABLE DATA CONTINUES TO
DEPICT A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION THOUGH THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER STILL REMAINS. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN
TRACKING POLEWARD, BUT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE
SOUTHWEST IS BEGINNING TO INDUCE A MORE WESTWARD STEERING COMPO-
NENT. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
THROUGH LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A REGION OF HIGH VERT-
ICAL WIND SHEAR. NEAR TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL FULLY DISSIPATE
OVER WATER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
18S (IVAN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080212 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 24.6S 85.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S 85.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.1S 84.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 24.5S 84.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1255 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRC-
ULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TC 16S CONTINUES TO WEAKEN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. STORM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
THE WARNING THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AND
THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST AFFECTS THE LLCC. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS
OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS
15 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS21 PGTW 20080222 08:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210821Z FEB 08//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 210830)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.5S 59.7E TO 21.5S 57.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 220530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.8S 59.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.2S
60.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.8S 59.7E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT IMAGES
CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER A MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO
THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC AND FLARING CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 230830Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080223 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 58.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 58.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.0S 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 22.5S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 24.7S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 27.3S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 57.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SMALL SYSTEM REGAINED WARNING STATUS AFTER
A FLARE OF CONVECTION FORMED (AND PERSISTED) NEAR THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. SATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE BETWEEN
30 KNOTS AND 40 KNOTS, AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS.
ADDITIONALLY, A 230100Z OBSERVATION FROM FIMP (APPROXIMATELY 45 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE TC CENTER) RECORDED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 27 KNOTS
(GUSTING TO 41 KNOTS). THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO THE EAST OF TC 16S. ONLY MODEST SHORT-
TERM INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER FAVORABLE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BUT WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING (WHICH HAS LIMITED SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS). TC 16S WILL ENCOUNTER A SHARP SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT AFTER TAU 36 AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 48.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
231500Z AND 240300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080223 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 20.4S 55.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 55.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 21.9S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 23.8S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 25.8S 50.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 55.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SMALL SYSTEM INTENSIFIED
SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVELS ARE
NOW BEING DISTORTED BY THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS AS SOME OF THE
CONVECTION HAS WANED. SATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE BETWEEN 40 TO 50 KNOTS, AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MOVEMENT OVER COOLER
WATER WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM LEADING TO DISSIPATION
OVER WATER BY TAU 36. OVERALL, THE OBJECTIVE AIDS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AS THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS WARNING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND 241500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080224 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 22.8S 54.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 54.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 25.1S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 27.6S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 23.4S 53.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT TC 16S TRACKED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE LA REUNION. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
THE ISLAND. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD TOWARD
UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT,
MAKING RE-INTENSIFICATION UNLIKELY. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 12 FEET.
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Document: hondo.htm
Updated: 24th February 2008 |
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